Who Stays, Who Goes

CDu said:
Well, I doubt that 3 transfers in would force 4-5 guys out. But yes, there would definitely be an impact on guys returning. And some of those guys are probably not going to return (or arrive) anyway, so that's sort of moot when discussing which guys transfer in.

There is definitely a risk. I trust the coaching staff to get it right, like they did this year when they prioritized Gillis, Brown, and James over Power, Stewart, and Mitchell. There will be some misses for sure. But hopefully the staff gets it right in terms of who they recruit from other schools and who they "re-recruit" from Duke.
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Last year we brought in 3 transfers and 7 guys left. Maybe 2 or 3 of them would have left anyway, which means the three guys in led to 4 or 5 guys out. I understand the math isn't provable (so I don't plan on debating this) but if we didn't bring in any transfers, my guess is Power, Stewart, Mitchell, Schutt, maybe Roach and/or maybe Reeves would have stayed.

I'm also not saying we would have been better off if that had happened. In the case of the 2025 team, our transfers almost certainly performed better than however many we lost for them would have. But you can't count on that every year. Mining the portal is just as unpredictable (if not more) than recruiting high school kids.

I, too, trust the coaching staff to know better than I who should stay and who should go.
 
I'm not sure one way or the other about Ament, even ignoring the quiet Hoops Summit performance. He's not super athletic/explosive, and he's really skinny. And I'm not sure of the positional fit with Boozer/Brown/Ngongba as I'm not convinced he can defend as essentially the 3 man.

On the other hand, he's one of the highest-rated prospects, so clearly he's very talented. I just wonder about the fit. Again, I'll trust the staff to make the right call. It just feels like a weird fit.
 
I think these things are true:

1) Jon did an amazing job with his roster construction last year.

2) Last year's success shows a maturation in Jon's approach to building a balanced roster with talent, depth, and experience that brings me optimism.

3) Last year's roster had the kind of depth that is really hard to get in the modern game. There was a confluence of factors that allowed us to amass a lot of talent: a) Cooper's commitment seemed to make Duke an even more attractive destination than usual (hard to know the impact, but I think it may have helped influence the transfers); b) Pat's injury situation allowed us to stash him on the bench while bringing in Maliq from the portal; c) Kon and Sion were way better than originally projected, such that their commitments didn't run off the guys they ended up playing ahead of. Last year simply was not normal.

4) Nobody gets it right in the portal every year. Not just coaches like Hubert Davis who have been hit or miss. Kansas was preseason #1 with a HOF coach and a transfer class everyone loved. It just didn't work for them, and I'm sure there are plenty of other examples.
 
"As we've said, Proctor is still waiting for his grade back from the UAC so he has all the data he needs to make his decision. Based on my understanding, it's either go pro (US or NBL in Australia) or finish out his collegiate career at Duke.

Evans is still deciding what he's doing next from everything I've heard. There are a number of P6 schools making big offers to him through back channels, and Duke is presenting their case as well. Last I heard he wants to go back to Duke all things considered but is still holding out making a final decision. Whether that's due to Duke's continued pursuit of Nate Ament and the potential of him enrolling/impacting his opportunities next year or he's weighing the potential of getting a big(ger) payday during his time in college I'm not 100% sure of.

A big variable in all this NIL stuff is the impending House settlement, which will basically put all NIL deals under a clearinghouse to prove they're at a perceived market value. Schools that don't necessarily pay market value to kids, but throw big money at them in exchange for a couple charity appearances here and there, are trying to fit deals in before that clearinghouse is established. There will also be rev share coming down the pike from schools' athletic departments ($20M+) that has to be considered as well.

It's not an easy decision, which is why you're seeing Duke be very deliberative both in making their next move and helping the guys on the roster make their decisions.
 
Kedsy said:
Last year we brought in 3 transfers and 7 guys left. Maybe 2 or 3 of them would have left anyway, which means the three guys in led to 4 or 5 guys out. I understand the math isn't provable (so I don't plan on debating this) but if we didn't bring in any transfers, my guess is Power, Stewart, Mitchell, Schutt, maybe Roach and/or maybe Reeves would have stayed.
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I think that 4-5 of them would have left anyway. Schutt and Reeves announced they were transferring long before we brought in a single transfer. They were definitely leaving regardless, as they had spent two years getting basically no path to playing time. Roach was essentially told he wasn't going to play PG (Foster was getting that job), and that's why he left. And Blakes was a grad transfer who wasn't going to play a meaningful role even before the transfers were announced. Mark Mitchell was getting bumped by Flagg and Knueppel. All of those guys announced before we invited a single transfer candidate to campus.

I think the only guys who were affected by the transfers were Power (Gillis) and Stewart (Brown). Maybe one of Roach or Mitchell might have considered staying, I don't know. But I doubt it.

As for the unpredictability of the portal, that's absolutely true. Sion James certainly exceeded expectations, which was huge as Foster had a rough year. But much like recruiting high school kids (or even trying to predict season-to-season improvement for returning players), it's not an exact science.
 
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SkyBrickey said:
The great mystery to me is what's holding up Ament's decision. He's now saying a week or two. It's possible his agent is running an auction, but at this point bidders will be dropping out and committing those funds to transfers, lessening his opportunity.

No, I think he's waiting on something. Something at Duke. And as the #4 player in the class, I don't think he's waiting on an Isaiah Evans decision. The only thing that makes sense to me is that Kon and/or Cooper aren't yet 100% gone. These are the guys who would negatively impact his playing time.
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Dude, you know we're often on the same optimistic wavelength but... no. Just no. Surefire lottery picks are gone, period. Certainly surefire Top 10 picks. Certainly the surefire #1 pick. Let's not be cruel to the overly credulous members of the DBR family ;)
 
SkyBrickey said:
Sports Illustrated releases a mock draft today. Isaiah at #24. Neither Tyrese nor Sion show up in the second round.

www.si.com

2025 NBA Mock Draft: Two-Round Projections Entering NBA Play-In Tournament

The postseason is officially here at the NBA level, meaning 10 teams have already begun their offseason. Conversely, 20 franchises have their eyes set on making
www.si.com www.si.com
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Considering no one is putting their name to this (it's written by "Draft Digest Staff") I'd be putting a lot less weight on this than some of the more reputable mocks...
 
I don't know anything for sure but I just can't see Evans wanting to leave on his own.
He was born and raised here in NC and a big Duke fan growing up and that means something around here.
And just going by feel but he is such a Duke homer and really enjoyed himself playing at Duke.
I usually read people pretty well and just can't see Slim leaving unless forced to do so or enters the draft.
I also don't think that we have even scratched the surface an how good he can be other than shooting the three ball.
Just listen to Coach Scheyer when he was talking about how hard he wanted to learn everything and how almost possessed he was working out and being coached.
Anyway just my thoughts on him and nothing more than feelings.
 
Kedsy said:
Last year we brought in 3 transfers and 7 guys left. Maybe 2 or 3 of them would have left anyway, which means the three guys in led to 4 or 5 guys out. I understand the math isn't provable (so I don't plan on debating this) but if we didn't bring in any transfers, my guess is Power, Stewart, Mitchell, Schutt, maybe Roach and/or maybe Reeves would have stayed.

I'm also not saying we would have been better off if that had happened. In the case of the 2025 team, our transfers almost certainly performed better than however many we lost for them would have. But you can't count on that every year. Mining the portal is just as unpredictable (if not more) than recruiting high school kids.

I, too, trust the coaching staff to know better than I who should stay and who should go.
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I think Jon Scheyer obviously knocked it out of the park last season, assembling one of the greatest Duke teams of all time. But let's not pretend there wasn't also a good bit of luck involved as well. For example, Flory Bidunga was originally Scheyer's preferred option as the 5, but his decision to go to Kansas allowed Duke to go after Man Man, who was easily the better player last season.

There was a Sion James interview yesterday where he reported that he turned down a $850,000 offer from another school to go to Duke instead. Duke probably still paid Sion plenty, but securing his commitment with a lower offer is pretty lucky IMO.

Any of the guys who left could easily have stayed (apart from Flip and Jared), and could have possibly negatively influenced the team in some way.

VJ Edgecombe not coming to Duke IMO was a blessing. He's good, but I don't think he would have added value in the lineup with the guards we already had. It's also possible that someone else would have left if Edgecombe decided to come. Imagine if VJ commits to Duke and Kon decides to go elsewhere. That would have been a disaster. Mackenzie Mgbako decommitting from Duke last offeason is probably a fork in the road that worked out great for Duke, too.

A lot of variables needed to go a certain way for this roster to come together the way it did. Not saying Jon Scheyer doesn't deserve all the credit in the world, but I just wanted to point out there's just also a ton of stuff that the coaches can't control, and it's basically impossible nail every single roster spot like this past season. Hopefully the dice roll is favorable for Duke this upcoming season as well.
 
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tommy said:
How is Ament a big upgrade over Evans if Ament can't physically compete against high-level competition given his frame? Evans, despite his frame, has already proven he can compete against high level competition, though he certainly has areas to improve upon.
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"If" is doing a lot of work there.
 
scottdude8 said:
Dude, you know we're often on the same optimistic wavelength but... no. Just no. Surefire lottery picks are gone, period. Certainly surefire Top 10 picks. Certainly the surefire #1 pick. Let's not be cruel to the overly credulous members of the DBR family ;)
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Haha. My homer guess is that both would like to stay, have toyed with the idea of staying, but ultimately the "adults" in the room - parents, agents, coaches - will convince them that it's time to move up and move on. It's got to be hard for both to let go of the season and the Duke experience after such a gut wrenching loss.

So yes, they are leaving, but Ament just wants to hear them make it official. This is just all my speculation but it's the only thing for me that explains the Ament delay.
 
tommy said:
I was responding to another poster who was of the opinion that Ament may not be ready to compete physically, but still felt that he would be a big upgrade over Evans. I don't see how that could be.
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I think it probably means that he thinks Ament has the higher upside, but the lower ceiling.
 
CDu said:
I'm not sure one way or the other about Ament, even ignoring the quiet Hoops Summit performance. He's not super athletic/explosive, and he's really skinny. And I'm not sure of the positional fit with Boozer/Brown/Ngongba as I'm not convinced he can defend as essentially the 3 man.

On the other hand, he's one of the highest-rated prospects, so clearly he's very talented. I just wonder about the fit. Again, I'll trust the staff to make the right call. It just feels like a weird fit.
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Well, OK, but how do you feel about the fit? ;)
 
SkyBrickey said:
Haha. My homer guess is that both would like to stay, have toyed with the idea of staying, but ultimately the "adults" in the room - parents, agents, coaches - will convince them that it's time to move up and move on. It's got to be hard for both to let go of the season and the Duke experience after such a gut wrenching loss.

So yes, they are leaving, but Ament just wants to hear them make it official. This is just all my speculation but it's the only thing for me that explains the Ament delay.
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This seems plausible. Flagg and KK leaving might be a mere formality, but if you’re Ament, you might want to see that formality formalized before you make the biggest decision of your life.
 
NYBri said:
Next couple of weeks will tell the story. Once news breaks, I think it’s gonna be a tidal wave ending with our 2025-26 roster. However it falls, we’ll be blessed to have yet another good team. How lucky are we? LGD!
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We root for the best program, which makes life great (as long as you can laugh off the haters).
 
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