Duke WBB faces UNC on Friday 3/28 at 2:30pm ET on ESPN (
streaming link,
listen,
ESPN gamecast)
The 2-seed Blue Devils play the 3-seed North Carolina Tar Heels for a third time this season, not in Durham or Chapel Hill but over 500 miles away, at the 18,000-seat
Legacy Arena in Birmingham, on Friday afternoon on ESPN. Duke is 5-0 in neutral games, while UNC is 7-2, losing twice in Greensboro to Connecticut (in November) and NC State (in early March). This is the first game of a regional semifinal doubleheader; 4-seed Maryland plays 1-seed South Carolina in the second game. Duke has already played all three of these teams this season.
The prospect of this Sweet Sixteen matchup has filled me with dread since Selection Sunday. Despite showing wisdom in some of their decisions (Duke was rewarded for winning the ACC Tournament with a 2 seed, while the Notre Dame women were moved down to a 3 seed for their late-season slide), the Women's Selection Committee still botched their overall treatment of our conference. Consider that the league's top 6 teams were paired off in three potential third-round matchups: had Florida State beaten LSU, they would have played NC State, and had Louisville beaten TCU, they would have played Notre Dame.
The other thing that's been bothering me is that Friday's regional chalk foursome of South Carolina-Duke-UNC-Maryland is eerily similar to the 2006 Final Four, which substituted a different SEC team: LSU-Duke-UNC-Maryland. Duke beat LSU in the semis, ending the storied college career of Seimone Augustus, and was championship caliber against Maryland in the final through all of regulation... and *most* of overtime.
Anyway, the Duke-Carolina rivalry resumes for a third installment, after a split in the regular season. They first played in Chapel Hill on January 9, with the home team winning (53-46 in overtime:
recap,
box score,
highlights,
full replay). It was an ugly game: tied 16-16 at halftime, the Heels scored 16 straight, and then the Blue Devils made a 24-8 run to catch up 40-40 and require an extra period. Duke's Ashlon Jackson and UNC's Alyssa Ustby were the game's only double-digit scorers, each with 10 points.
Duke started their late-season revenge tour by showing a bit more offense against UNC on February 27 in Durham (68-53:
recap,
box score,
highlights,
full replay). Reigan Richardson hit 5 of 8 threes to lead the Blue Devils with 23 points, while Toby Fournier added a double-double, 19 points and 10 rebounds. Lanie Grant paced the Heels with 17 points, while Alyssa Ustby missed that game with a left knee injury.
Head coach Courtney Banghart re-inserted Alyssa Ustby into the starting lineup for the ACC Tournament, and she has had a regular rotation available for the past five games. Here's a final look at her
roster.
PROBABLE STARTERS
6-3 senior post
Maria Gakdeng #5 (11.1 pts, 7.7 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-1 grad wing
Alyssa Ustby #1 (10.9 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 1.0 blk)
6-0 grad guard
Lexi Donarski #20 (10.8 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.1 stl)
5-7 sophomore guard
Reniya Kelly #10 (9.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl)
5-10 junior guard
Indya Nivar #24 (8.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.0 stl)
TOP RESERVES
5-9 freshman guard
Lanie Grant #0 (7.4 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.1 ast)
5-8 junior guard
Trayanna Crisp #14 (5.8 pts, 1.5 reb, 1.2 ast)
5-5 grad guard
Grace Townsend #2 (4.3 pts, 2.1 reb, 2.4 ast)
6-4 redshirt freshman forward
Ciera Toomey #21 (3.3 pts, 2.2 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-1 redshirt freshman guard
Laila Hull #4 (2.6 pts, 1.6 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-5 freshman center
Blanca Thomas #34 (2.4 pts, 3.5 reb, 0.3 ast)
BENCH PLAYERS
5-7 sophomore guard
Sydney Barker #15 (1.7 pts, 0.2 reb, 0.1 ast)
5-11 freshman guard
Jordan Zubich #3 (1.5 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.5 ast)
INJURED/OTHER
5-8 redshirt junior guard
Kayla McPherson #11 -- knee injury, return unknown
The Heels got to Birmingham after a pair of home wins in the first two rounds, against 14-seed Oregon State (70-49) and 6-seed West Virginia (58-47:
recap,
box score,
highlights,
presser). The Heels were mediocre at shooting, but the Mountaineers were even worse; they shot only 24.1 percent from the field (13-of-54) and 9.5 percent from three (2-of-21). Carolina outscored WVU 16-2 in fast break points.
Both recent history and team stats (courtesy of
Sports Reference and other linked sources) suggest another defensive slugfest. Neither team will have the benefit of a home crowd.
Bart Torvik predicts Duke to win 61-56.
| Category | UNC (29-7, 13-5 ACC) | Duke (28-7, 14-4 ACC) |
| Points Scored | 70.5 (86th nationally) | 73.8 (53rd) |
| Points Allowed | 57.6 (37th) | 57.1 (30th) |
| Scoring Margin (NCAA.com) | +12.9 (39th) | +16.7 (20th) |
| Bench Points (NCAA.com) | 21.4 (74th) | 31.7 (2nd) |
| Total Rebounds | 38.8 (75th) | 39.0 (63rd) |
| --- Offensive Rebounds | 11.6 (158th) | 14.7 (21st) |
| --- Defensive Rebounds | 27.2 (57th) | 24.3 (228th) |
| Assists | 14.1 (124th) | 16.9 (26th) |
| Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com) | 1.09 (54th) | 1.13 (47th) |
| Steals | 7.9 (160th) | 10.4 (36th) |
| Blocks | 4.0 (60th) | 4.1 (50th) |
| Turnovers | 12.9 (28th fewest) | 14.9 (107th fewest) |
| Personal Fouls | 15.3 (90th fewest) | 16.4 (166th fewest) |
| Field Goal Percentage | 42.5% (115th) | 44.8% (51st) |
| 2-Point FG Percentage | 47.3% (131st) | 48.8% (85th) |
| 3-Point FG Percentage | 33.6% (87th) | 34.5% (51st) |
| Free Throw Percentage | 67.0% (304th) | 69.1% (252nd) |
| NET Ranking (NCAA.com) | #20 (NET Summary) | #7 (NET Summary) |
| --- Strength of Schedule | 32nd | 5th |
| --- Quad 1 record | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| --- Quad 2 record | 5-1 | 9-2 |
| --- Quad 3 record | 7-1 | 6-0 |
| --- Quad 4 record | 9-0 | 5-0 |
| T-Rank (Bart Torvik) | #20 (T-Page) | #7 (T-Page) |
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