PlagueWatch - Coronavirus

My wife and I got our flu and COVID shots (Moderna) on Monday morning -- both in the same arm. I'm happy to report that the only discomfort we experienced was mild soreness at the site of the injections from late afternoon Monday until mid-morning on Tuesday. We hope that others will be as fortunate.
 
I haven't been paying as close attention to the COVID variants lately admittedly, but looks like the latest vaccine targets KP.2 where KP.3 is the most prevalent variant circulating right now (57%) of cases, followed by XEC (11%) and KP.2 (8%). KP.2 and KP.3 are very similar certainly, so the vaccine should be fairly effective at reducing severity/risk. I'll probably get it next month. I'm glad that the last couple of boosters I didn't have side effects beyond a sore arm -- unlike the initial two shot vaccine series back in spring 2021 which was rough for me...I'm sure I'm not alone in that having changed.

www.nbcnews.com

FDA approves the new Covid vaccine. Here's the best time to get it.

With the summer Covid wave still rising, experts say the timing for getting vaccinated is important.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
www.nebraskamed.com

What COVID-19 variants are going around in May 2025?

Get the latest COVID-19 news from infectious diseases expert Mark Rupp, MD, including COVID-19 case rates, types of variants circulating and vaccine updates.
www.nebraskamed.com www.nebraskamed.com

It's been like whack a mole -- but all derived from omicron.

It does seem like the fact that it mutated to a more highly contagious but generally less severe (fewer hospitalizations and deaths) was the path needed to get us from a panic state to a "COVID is another respiratory illness to deal with" state. I think most first thought it was going to be similar to MERS/SARS etc. but definitely took a different path. And because its so contagious, now everyone has at least built up some immunities.

Certainly, COVID will be something to contend with now for basically forever, so not saying it's not something to keep attention to, but I am glad that that was the (random) path that occurred certainty vs. a more highly contagious and more deadly variant (which was always possible....I guess something like Ebola doesn't spread as much simply because it makes people SO sick that they don't get a chance to spread it before being hospitalized but seems like with COVID the most infectious stage is often before symptoms so there could have been a highly contagious and more severe variant that "won" out but that did not occur).
 
Sat at my daughter's normal spot at the kitchen table, so I could see the election coverage on TV (We never watch tv at dinner, well rarely). Got up later and washed some dishes... went back to my eatin normal spot and accidentally some of my drank my daughter's drink. She's had a cold for two weeks now. Uggggh! My wife says... "You feel like you have a sore throat already? " Ugggh
 
Bluedog said:
I haven't been paying as close attention to the COVID variants lately admittedly, but looks like the latest vaccine targets KP.2 where KP.3 is the most prevalent variant circulating right now (57%) of cases, followed by XEC (11%) and KP.2 (8%). KP.2 and KP.3 are very similar certainly, so the vaccine should be fairly effective at reducing severity/risk. I'll probably get it next month. I'm glad that the last couple of boosters I didn't have side effects beyond a sore arm -- unlike the initial two shot vaccine series back in spring 2021 which was rough for me...I'm sure I'm not alone in that having changed.

www.nbcnews.com

FDA approves the new Covid vaccine. Here's the best time to get it.

With the summer Covid wave still rising, experts say the timing for getting vaccinated is important.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
www.nebraskamed.com

What COVID-19 variants are going around in May 2025?

Get the latest COVID-19 news from infectious diseases expert Mark Rupp, MD, including COVID-19 case rates, types of variants circulating and vaccine updates.
www.nebraskamed.com www.nebraskamed.com

It's been like whack a mole -- but all derived from omicron.

It does seem like the fact that it mutated to a more highly contagious but generally less severe (fewer hospitalizations and deaths) was the path needed to get us from a panic state to a "COVID is another respiratory illness to deal with" state. I think most first thought it was going to be similar to MERS/SARS etc. but definitely took a different path. And because its so contagious, now everyone has at least built up some immunities.

Certainly, COVID will be something to contend with now for basically forever, so not saying it's not something to keep attention to, but I am glad that that was the (random) path that occurred certainty vs. a more highly contagious and more deadly variant (which was always possible....I guess something like Ebola doesn't spread as much simply because it makes people SO sick that they don't get a chance to spread it before being hospitalized but seems like with COVID the most infectious stage is often before symptoms so there could have been a highly contagious and more severe variant that "won" out but that did not occur).
Click to expand...

I haven't read this thread in awhile. Approximately 4000 Americans a month are still dying from covid. Mortality rates for the unvaccinated are higher than for the vaccinated and the majority of those dying are unvaccinated. We have nearly three years of data post covid vaccines being widely available and the results show that covid is killing more Americans than flu. That could still change but for now, it remains more deadly than the flu.

Also, in terms of the virus mutating towards a less deadly version - not really. Here is the most recent study I could find post vaccine being available. The mortality rate range for unvaccinated persons is huge, 1.6 - 15.8, but the lower end of that range is not significantly lower than the initial mortality rates - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7206a3.htm.
 
Bostondevil said:
I haven't read this thread in awhile. Approximately 4000 Americans a month are still dying from covid. Mortality rates for the unvaccinated are higher than for the vaccinated and the majority of those dying are unvaccinated. We have nearly three years of data post covid vaccines being widely available and the results show that covid is killing more Americans than flu. That could still change but for now, it remains more deadly than the flu.

Also, in terms of the virus mutating towards a less deadly version - not really. Here is the most recent study I could find post vaccine being available. The mortality rate range for unvaccinated persons is huge, 1.6 - 15.8, but the lower end of that range is not significantly lower than the initial mortality rates - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7206a3.htm.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the response. Yes, agreed that COVID is still killing a lot of people which of course isn't good.

I was relying on articles like this from the CDC is my note: "A CDC study shows that severe outcomes in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 have declined over time and have become more similar to that of adults hospitalized with flu."

Study Shows Hospital Outcomes for Flu and COVID-19 Have Become More Similar

CDC study shows that hospital outcomes for flu and COVID-19 have become more similar.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Maybe that doesn't give the full picture?

Still if you look at COVID death totals, it's definitely much more than influenza as you state. Looking at the below counts from the cdc states there have been 4,821 deaths from COVID in the US in October and November and 26,000+ deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID. Seems like pneumonia is the largest killer by far but I think that's often associated with something else? I'm not totally sure....but covid is 20% of the total for that 2-month timeframe.

Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance

National Center for Health Statistics
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Regardless, not suggesting that we're back to pre covid times/death levels as we have a highly contagious disease with higher death rates than the flu so that certainly isn't a positive outcome from a public health perspective. Just suggesting that we're at the stage where it's viewed as another respiratory illness which it should be in my humble opinion....

Maybe I was off with my characterization of disease becoming more contagious/less severe but seems like you can find studies/data that convey the story that one desires right now to an extent.
 
Bluedog said:
Thanks for the response. Yes, agreed that COVID is still killing a lot of people which of course isn't good.

I was relying on articles like this from the CDC is my note: "A CDC study shows that severe outcomes in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 have declined over time and have become more similar to that of adults hospitalized with flu."

Study Shows Hospital Outcomes for Flu and COVID-19 Have Become More Similar

CDC study shows that hospital outcomes for flu and COVID-19 have become more similar.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Maybe that doesn't give the full picture?

Still if you look at COVID death totals, it's definitely much more than influenza as you state. Looking at the below counts from the cdc states there have been 4,821 deaths from COVID in the US in October and November and 26,000+ deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID. Seems like pneumonia is the largest killer by far but I think that's often associated with something else? I'm not totally sure....but covid is 20% of the total for that 2-month timeframe.

Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance

National Center for Health Statistics
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Regardless, not suggesting that we're back to pre covid times/death levels as we have a highly contagious disease with higher death rates than the flu so that certainly isn't a positive outcome from a public health perspective. Just suggesting that we're at the stage where it's viewed as another respiratory illness which it should be in my humble opinion....

Maybe I was off with my characterization of disease becoming more contagious/less severe but seems like you can find studies/data that convey the story that one desires right now to an extent.
Click to expand...

You found a more recent study than I did, so I'll go with that one. Still, my argument is that the disease is very different depending upon one's vaccination status. They study you posted didn't break out the results according to vaccination status. I would be interested to see those numbers. The most worrying result was the one showing that the mortality rates for covid remain higher than mortality rates for flu among 18-49 year olds. Again - I would want to see the mortality rates broken out by vaccination status in that age group in particular. Putting aside the personal tragedies of losing family members that young, increased mortality among people 18-49 is not good for the economy. I suspect the differences in mortality rates according to vaccination status in that age group are even larger than among older people. While I agree we are at the stage where everyone views covid as just another respiratory illness, for the unvaccinated, I don't think that's true.
 
Bostondevil said:
You found a more recent study than I did, so I'll go with that one. Still, my argument is that the disease is very different depending upon one's vaccination status. They study you posted didn't break out the results according to vaccination status. I would be interested to see those numbers. The most worrying result was the one showing that the mortality rates for covid remain higher than mortality rates for flu among 18-49 year olds. Again - I would want to see the mortality rates broken out by vaccination status in that age group in particular. Putting aside the personal tragedies of losing family members that young, increased mortality among people 18-49 is not good for the economy. I suspect the differences in mortality rates according to vaccination status in that age group are even larger than among older people. While I agree we are at the stage where everyone views covid as just another respiratory illness, for the unvaccinated, I don't think that's true.
Click to expand...
I apologize for asking a more specific question in response to a very good post.

How do infection/mortality rates seem to correlate to "vaccinated" versus "vaccination expired?" I know lots of folks 40s/50s with vaccine fatigue who aren't motivated by an understanding of how important it is to keep updated on their vaccines.
 
Bluedog said:
Thanks for the response. Yes, agreed that COVID is still killing a lot of people which of course isn't good.

I was relying on articles like this from the CDC is my note: "A CDC study shows that severe outcomes in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 have declined over time and have become more similar to that of adults hospitalized with flu."

Study Shows Hospital Outcomes for Flu and COVID-19 Have Become More Similar

CDC study shows that hospital outcomes for flu and COVID-19 have become more similar.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Maybe that doesn't give the full picture?

Still if you look at COVID death totals, it's definitely much more than influenza as you state. Looking at the below counts from the cdc states there have been 4,821 deaths from COVID in the US in October and November and 26,000+ deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID. Seems like pneumonia is the largest killer by far but I think that's often associated with something else? I'm not totally sure....but covid is 20% of the total for that 2-month timeframe.

Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance

National Center for Health Statistics
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

Regardless, not suggesting that we're back to pre covid times/death levels as we have a highly contagious disease with higher death rates than the flu so that certainly isn't a positive outcome from a public health perspective. Just suggesting that we're at the stage where it's viewed as another respiratory illness which it should be in my humble opinion....

Maybe I was off with my characterization of disease becoming more contagious/less severe but seems like you can find studies/data that convey the story that one desires right now to an extent.
Click to expand...

Let me offer some food for thought to your post here. I understand your comparisons of mortality rates, etc and don’t quibble with that.

My main question is have you ever heard of someone getting Long Flu? Because plenty of people seem to be getting Long Covid. Most recover quickly but for some it has lasted years and is still going (myself included). Trust me, you don’t want this. The symptoms I have are certainly not life threatening at all, but have been seriously life altering. I haven’t been able to read a book all year. I can’t do more than 15/20 minutes of work without needing a longer break. Working out is out of the question. And judging by some of the people in a support group I’m in, it could be much worse. A handful of them can’t even get out of bed or off the couch on most days. Some also have heart issues. Others have also reported that any recovery they had was reversed and made worse by Covid reinfection. They mask up when going out and are generally treated as pariahs/lepers/etc as a lot of people assume they are work or currently contagious.

There are a bunch of therapies being used, but none of them seem to cure any of the symptoms - they just generally make them not as bad. It’s also hard to understand what is working. I’m on about 15 different medicines and supplements. The doctor asks how my fatigue is and I can sometimes say a little better. But is it the medications actually working and helping or is it the fact that we learn more about ourselves and stay away from activities that exacerbate the symptoms (exercise, reading/concentrating, etc).

So, I get why many think it’s just another respiratory illness which it thankfully is for most. But for a minority it is much more than that and research into it has been slow. Not trying to get political but I also believe that the next administration will not pay any attention to it or provide any funding whatsoever for it.

So, i recommend being careful about getting COVID as much as you can - and seriously considering using Paxlovid if you do get sick (those that do seem to have a lower incidence of Long Covid).
 
acdevil said:
Let me offer some food for thought to your post here. I understand your comparisons of mortality rates, etc and don’t quibble with that.

My main question is have you ever heard of someone getting Long Flu? Because plenty of people seem to be getting Long Covid. Most recover quickly but for some it has lasted years and is still going (myself included). Trust me, you don’t want this. The symptoms I have are certainly not life threatening at all, but have been seriously life altering. I haven’t been able to read a book all year. I can’t do more than 15/20 minutes of work without needing a longer break. Working out is out of the question. And judging by some of the people in a support group I’m in, it could be much worse. A handful of them can’t even get out of bed or off the couch on most days. Some also have heart issues. Others have also reported that any recovery they had was reversed and made worse by Covid reinfection. They mask up when going out and are generally treated as pariahs/lepers/etc as a lot of people assume they are work or currently contagious.

There are a bunch of therapies being used, but none of them seem to cure any of the symptoms - they just generally make them not as bad. It’s also hard to understand what is working. I’m on about 15 different medicines and supplements. The doctor asks how my fatigue is and I can sometimes say a little better. But is it the medications actually working and helping or is it the fact that we learn more about ourselves and stay away from activities that exacerbate the symptoms (exercise, reading/concentrating, etc).

So, I get why many think it’s just another respiratory illness which it thankfully is for most. But for a minority it is much more than that and research into it has been slow. Not trying to get political but I also believe that the next administration will not pay any attention to it or provide any funding whatsoever for it.

So, i recommend being careful about getting COVID as much as you can - and seriously considering using Paxlovid if you do get sick (those that do seem to have a lower incidence of Long Covid).
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear this. It sounds awful. Sending you good wishes.
 
That really stinks acdevil, sorry to hear that. That is really a big deal and I'm sorry you're experiencing that.

Apparently, "long flu" is a thing but wasn't studied until COVID came around. However, long COVID is a bigger deal.

The money paragraph on the comparison:

"Many people think they’re over COVID-19 or the flu after being discharged from the hospital. That may be true for some people. But our research shows that both viruses can cause long-haul illness. [...] However, the overall risk and occurrence of death, hospital admissions, and loss of health in many organ systems are substantially higher among COVID-19 patients than among those who have had seasonal influenza, Al-Aly said. “The one notable exception is that the flu poses higher risks to the pulmonary system than COVID-19,” he said. “This tells us the flu is truly more of a respiratory virus, like we’ve all thought for the past 100 years. By comparison, COVID-19 is more aggressive and indiscriminate in that it can attack the pulmonary system, but it can also strike any organ system and is more likely to cause fatal or severe conditions involving the heart, brain, kidneys and other organs."
medicine.washu.edu

'Long flu’ has emerged as a consequence similar to long COVID | WashU Medicine

Study shows patients hospitalized for flu or COVID-19 face increased risk of long-term health problems, death
medicine.washu.edu medicine.washu.edu

There are still people in my area that wear masks all the time. It seems more common in urban/progressive areas, and in those areas, mask-wearers aren't typically judged/seen as contagious.
 
Wow, I didn’t know that about Long Flu.

I would agree with your masking comment, except the ones I hear from about it are in New York. It’s probably small sample size/anecdotal. NY probably has more people that are accommodating to masking, but also more that react viscerally to it. Probably more NYers that make their opinions known vs keeping it to themselves. 😂
 
One more addition to the "long flu" discussion, while the exact causes of Guillain-Barre Syndrome are unknown, patients have developed it after having the flu.

AC - I'm very sorry to hear about your long covid.
 
I’ve been vaccinated and boosted every time I was eligible but have tested positive once or twice for Covid. My wife has had it a lot since she is a teacher and my kids bring all kinds of stuff home to us any way. Well, I just developed Celiac Disease which was confirmed by skin biopsies of a rash I’ve had. Life altering but nothing I can’t handle. Covid related? Possible for sure but we will never know.
 
acdevil said:
Let me offer some food for thought to your post here. I understand your comparisons of mortality rates, etc and don’t quibble with that.

My main question is have you ever heard of someone getting Long Flu? Because plenty of people seem to be getting Long Covid. Most recover quickly but for some it has lasted years and is still going (myself included). Trust me, you don’t want this. The symptoms I have are certainly not life threatening at all, but have been seriously life altering. I haven’t been able to read a book all year. I can’t do more than 15/20 minutes of work without needing a longer break. Working out is out of the question. And judging by some of the people in a support group I’m in, it could be much worse. A handful of them can’t even get out of bed or off the couch on most days. Some also have heart issues. Others have also reported that any recovery they had was reversed and made worse by Covid reinfection. They mask up when going out and are generally treated as pariahs/lepers/etc as a lot of people assume they are work or currently contagious.

There are a bunch of therapies being used, but none of them seem to cure any of the symptoms - they just generally make them not as bad. It’s also hard to understand what is working. I’m on about 15 different medicines and supplements. The doctor asks how my fatigue is and I can sometimes say a little better. But is it the medications actually working and helping or is it the fact that we learn more about ourselves and stay away from activities that exacerbate the symptoms (exercise, reading/concentrating, etc).

So, I get why many think it’s just another respiratory illness which it thankfully is for most. But for a minority it is much more than that and research into it has been slow. Not trying to get political but I also believe that the next administration will not pay any attention to it or provide any funding whatsoever for it.

So, i recommend being careful about getting COVID as much as you can - and seriously considering using Paxlovid if you do get sick (those that do seem to have a lower incidence of Long Covid).
Click to expand...
I’m so sorry to hear this. Here’s hoping the doctors find something to help you soon.

Have you looked into clinical trials? I heard a seminar last year from someone at Yale (IIRC) who has a clinical trial for long covid. Again, IIRC, they were treating with Paxlovid and seeing positive results. (Side note: I work in an immunology department.)

Fun bit of trivia. This group had also done an extensive epidemiological study and found the top common factor for long covid was … drumroll … Epstein-Barr Virus. Acdevil, did you ever have mono?
 
ArkieDukie said:
I’m so sorry to hear this. Here’s hoping the doctors find something to help you soon.

Have you looked into clinical trials? I heard a seminar last year from someone at Yale (IIRC) who has a clinical trial for long covid. Again, IIRC, they were treating with Paxlovid and seeing positive results. (Side note: I work in an immunology department.)

Fun bit of trivia. This group had also done an extensive epidemiological study and found the top common factor for long covid was … drumroll … Epstein-Barr Virus. Acdevil, did you ever have mono?
Click to expand...
No mono for me. I’ve looked into some clinical trials but haven’t qualified/been selected for any so far.
 
Neals384 said:
CIA now officially off the fence re. COVID origins. Report written during the Biden admin, now released to the public.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/25/cia-covid-19-lab-00200618
Click to expand...
Has the assessment really changed? I thought most people that were still following this thought it was always a possibility. Since there wasn’t a released realization of a Patient Zero or the animal vector it wasn’t and still isn’t ruled out. It’s just like the animal theory and there is no know smoking gun.

“We have low confidence in this judgement and will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reporting or open-source information that could change CIA’s assessment,” an unnamed CIA spokesperson wrote in an email sent to reporters Saturday.
Click to expand...
 
Kdogg said:
Has the assessment really changed? I thought most people that were still following this thought it was always a possibility. Since there wasn’t a released realization of a Patient Zero or the animal vector it wasn’t and still isn’t ruled out. It’s just like the animal theory and there is no know smoking gun.
Click to expand...
ya, that's what I thought...
 
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