MBB Nerd Polls 2024-25

I think SkyD and MChamb have convinced me. And if it's true that Torvik has backtested adding this factor and has proven that it's more predictive, then case closed.

I wonder if anyone has compared Torvik vs KenPom vs actual seeding (or the NET) in their accuracy for predicting tourney results. I know I've been using Torvik to make my 8/9, 7/10 and 4/5 picks in my tourney pools for the past few years. The variation in KenPom vs Torvik is probably very small (insignificant?) compared to the variation in outcome of the games.
 
I would agree with Torvik.

Here's a thought experiment. Take an ACC team that beats a mediocre ACC opponent 82-50. Would you think more of that team if the halftime score was 53-26 or 29-24? Me, I'd take the team that wins the first half 53-26.

Who needs halftime adjustments when you're flattening the other team in the first half.
That is a spectacular hypothetical. I think we should run that test twice a year for the next 100 years.
 
Houston is trying REALLY hard to keep the #1 defensive rating. Utah (11-6) has 28 points with less than 5 minutes left in the game.

Somehow, somewhere, Tony Bennett is jealous.
 
I really don't want Houston in our region.
I know there are lots of folks projecting Houston as a #4 at this point, but I really think they will be no lower than a #2 when all is said and done. And if they are a #2, they won't be the same region as Duke because Duke is going to be paired with a SEC team (there are too many SEC teams at the top to not pair them with Duke and B12 teams).

But I feel like we are still at least 8 or so games from having a real sense of the field beyond some vague generalities.
 
I know there are lots of folks projecting Houston as a #4 at this point, but I really think they will be no lower than a #2 when all is said and done.

I think a lot of that 4-seed hype is based on them being 0-3 in quad 1 games. Despite that, they are still #3 in NET, and they have a ton of quad 1 opportunities on their remaining schedule (10 of their last 13 games are currently quad 1 if my math is right). If they don't do better than a 4 seed it's because they've either had really bad luck or have just fallen off a cliff for whatever reason.

Incidentally, looking at the rankings just now and noticed that 11 of Auburn's 18 games have been Q1. Most in the country.
 
I know there are lots of folks projecting Houston as a #4 at this point, but I really think they will be no lower than a #2 when all is said and done. And if they are a #2, they won't be the same region as Duke because Duke is going to be paired with a SEC team (there are too many SEC teams at the top to not pair them with Duke and B12 teams).

But I feel like we are still at least 8 or so games from having a real sense of the field beyond some vague generalities.
Spot on.

As it is currently trending, there are at least 4 teams from the SEC that are going to be in the top 8 on the S-Curve from among Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky. The committee might be forced to put an SEC team with a resume of a 2 seed as a 3 seed just to avoid having the same conference at the top of the same bracket. Each bracket is going to have an SEC team in either the 1 or 2 seed line.

That leaves 4 open spots for the other 1/2 seeds. That group will probably include Duke, the Big 12 winner and runner-up (2 from among Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas), and then one from among the top of the B1G or Marquette.

East: Duke, SEC Team
South: Auburn, non-SEC Team (Big 12 #2)
Midwest: Big 12 Champ, SEC Team
West: Alabama, non-SEC Team (Marquette/B1G Team)
 
So since we will catch an SEC team on our #2 line (Florida or Tennessee as things stand today), then we won't have an SEC team on our #3 line.

And that will make it more likely we catch an SEC team on our #4 line (Kentucky, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, or Miss St).

There's a greater than zero chance we will have to beat 4 SEC teams in 4 games to win #6.

Ole Miss > Tennessee > Alabama > Auburn.

That's earning it the hard way. Of course upsets will happen, but it's still a funny thought...
 
So since we will catch an SEC team on our #2 line (Florida or Tennessee as things stand today), then we won't have an SEC team on our #3 line.

And that will make it more likely we catch an SEC team on our #4 line (Kentucky, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, or Miss St).

There's a greater than zero chance we will have to beat 4 SEC teams in 4 games to win #6.

Ole Miss > Tennessee > Alabama > Auburn.

That's earning it the hard way. Of course upsets will happen, but it's still a funny thought...
Duke almost had to go through 4 Pac-10 teams in 2001:

Sweet 16 Duke def. UCLA
Elite 8 Duke def. USC
Final Four Duke def. Maryland (Maryland played Stanford in the Elite 8)
National Title Game Duke def. Arizona
 
4-1 is stupid odds. You would almost certainly be far better off by making a straight moneyline wager on each game.

In fact, let me check...

I am going to lay out a scenario where Duke is a 20 point favorite in the first round game, 12 points in the R32, 8 points in the R16, 5 points in the R8, 4 points in the FFour, and 2 points in the championship game. I feel like that seems reasonable. Let's see how that comes out.

R64 - as a 20 point pick, Duke would be -7700. a $100 bet would return $1.30. So we now have $101.30 to bet
R32 - as a 12 point pick, Duke would be -855. a $101.30 bet would return $11.85. So we now have $113.15 to bet
R16 - as a 8 point pick, Duke would be -358. a $113.15 bet would return $31.61. So we now have $144.76 to bet
R8 - as a 5 point pick, Duke would be -208. a $144.76 bet would return $69.60. So we now have $214.36 to bet
F4 - as a 4 point pick, Duke would be -178. a $214.36 bet would return $120.43. So we now have $334.79 to bet
Champ Game - as a 2 point pick, Duke would be -132. a $334.79 bet would return $253.63. So we now win $588.42 from our series of wagers.

So, betting each game would return almost 6-to-1 versus the 4-1 odds you get by betting the future.

Of course, if there are some upsets you could have Duke as a bigger favorite in some of these games. Though if Duke was ever an underdog, perhaps in a game against Auburn, then the odds could really amplify. Same if some of the earlier games -- like the E8 or F4 games -- seem like closer matchups.

I used these two tools to calculate this --
 
Last edited:
Duke almost had to go through 4 Pac-10 teams in 2001:

Sweet 16 Duke def. UCLA
Elite 8 Duke def. USC
Final Four Duke def. Maryland (Maryland played Stanford in the Elite 8)
National Title Game Duke def. Arizona
I remember someone on ESPN (or CBS?) at the time saying Duke essentially had to win the Pac-12 tournament to win the national title 😅
 
I haven't bothered to download all the pre-tourney files, but here are the teams that were Top Five in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (I'll call them Top 5 x 2 teams) in the end-of-season rankings for Duke since '97 (with NCAA Tournament Outcome):

2002: #1 Off/#1 Def (Sweet 16)
1998: #3 Off/#1 Def (Elite 8)
1999: #3 Off/#3 Def (National Runner-Up)
2001: #2 Off/#3 Def (National Champs)
2004: #2 Off/#3 Def (Final Four)
2010: #1 Off/#5 Def (National Champs)

And here are the Top Five x 2 teams not named Duke over the same time period:

2008 Kansas: #2 Off/#1 Def (National Champs)
2000 Michigan State: #2 Off/#4 Def (National Champs)
2019 Virginia: #2 Off/#5 Def (National Champs)
2005 North Carolina: #2 Off/#5 Def (National Champs)
2005 Illinois: #3 Off/#4 Def (National Runner-Up)
2007 North Carolina: #3 Off/#4 Def (Elite 8)
2016 Villanova: #3 Off/#5 Def (National Champs)
2024 UConn: #1 Off/#4 Def (National Champs)
1997 Kentucky: #5 Off/#1 Def (National Runner-Up)
1997 Kansas: #4 Off/#5 Def (Sweet 16)
2001 Michigan State: #4 Off/#5 Def (Final Four)
2003 Kentucky: #5 Off/#4 Def (Elite 8)

Seems like good company.
I had some time and inclination to look up the pre-tourney stats from KenPom. As Kedsey noted, they only go back to 2001. Here are all the teams that were in the top 5 of both AdjOE and AdjDE, 2001-2024:

YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2001Duke22National Champions
2002Duke12Sweet 16
2004Duke33Final Four
2005Illinois25National Runner-Up
2007North Carolina32Elite 8
2008Kansas13National Champions
2010Kansas24Round of 32
2010Duke45National Champions
2019Virginia25National Champions

From this group...
100% Reached the Round of 64
100% Reached the Round of 32
88.9% Reached the Sweet 16
77.8% Reached the Elite 8
66.7% Reached the Final 4
55.6% Reached the National Title Game
44.4% Won the National Championship

Those are pretty good outcomes if you ask me.

There is a larger group of teams that were Top 10 in AdjOE and AdjDE. Here's that group, 2001-2024 (excluding Kansas in 2020 due to the lack of an NCAA Tournament that year):

YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2001Duke22National Champions
2001MSU38Final Four
2001Arizona103National Runner-Up
2002Duke12Sweet 16
2002Cincinnati71Round of 32
2002Kansas57Final Four
2003Kentucky84Elite 8
2004Duke33Final Four
2005Illinois25National Runner-Up
2005North Carolina36National Champions
2005Duke103Sweet 16
2006UConn89Elite 8
2007North Carolina32Elite 8
2007Ohio State610National Runner-Up
2008Kansas13National Champions
2008UCLA64Final Four
2008Duke87Round of 32
2010Kansas24Round of 32
2010Duke45National Champions
2011Duke65Sweet 16
2012Kentucky26National Champions
2012Ohio State73Final Four
2013Florida64Elite 8
2014Louisville76Sweet 16
2015Kentucky61Final Four
2016Kansas74Elite 8
2016Virginia86Elite 8
2017Gonzaga102National Runner-Up
2018Duke37Elite 8
2018Michigan99National Runner-Up
2019Virginia25National Champions
2019Duke66Elite 8
2019Michigan State48Final Four
2019North Carolina710Sweet 16
2021Gonzaga110National Runner-Up
2021Illinois75Round of 32
2021Michigan67Elite 8
2022Gonzaga17Sweet 16
2024Auburn104Round of 64

From this group...
100% Reached the Round of 64
97.4% Reached the Round of 32
87.2% Reached the Sweet 16
71.8% Reached the Elite 8
48.7% Reached the Final 4
30.8% Reached the National Title Game
15.4% Won the National Championship

At the moment, Duke and Iowa State are the only two teams in top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE.
 
I had some time and inclination to look up the pre-tourney stats from KenPom. As Kedsey noted, they only go back to 2001. Here are all the teams that were in the top 5 of both AdjOE and AdjDE, 2001-2024:

YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2001Duke22National Champions
2002Duke12Sweet 16
2004Duke33Final Four
2005Illinois25National Runner-Up
2007North Carolina32Elite 8
2008Kansas13National Champions
2010Kansas24Round of 32
2010Duke45National Champions
2019Virginia25National Champions

From this group...
100% Reached the Round of 64
100% Reached the Round of 32
88.9% Reached the Sweet 16
77.8% Reached the Elite 8
66.7% Reached the Final 4
55.6% Reached the National Title Game
44.4% Won the National Championship

Those are pretty good outcomes if you ask me.

There is a larger group of teams that were Top 10 in AdjOE and AdjDE. Here's that group, 2001-2024 (excluding Kansas in 2020 due to the lack of an NCAA Tournament that year):

YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2001Duke22National Champions
2001MSU38Final Four
2001Arizona103National Runner-Up
2002Duke12Sweet 16
2002Cincinnati71Round of 32
2002Kansas57Final Four
2003Kentucky84Elite 8
2004Duke33Final Four
2005Illinois25National Runner-Up
2005North Carolina36National Champions
2005Duke103Sweet 16
2006UConn89Elite 8
2007North Carolina32Elite 8
2007Ohio State610National Runner-Up
2008Kansas13National Champions
2008UCLA64Final Four
2008Duke87Round of 32
2010Kansas24Round of 32
2010Duke45National Champions
2011Duke65Sweet 16
2012Kentucky26National Champions
2012Ohio State73Final Four
2013Florida64Elite 8
2014Louisville76Sweet 16
2015Kentucky61Final Four
2016Kansas74Elite 8
2016Virginia86Elite 8
2017Gonzaga102National Runner-Up
2018Duke37Elite 8
2018Michigan99National Runner-Up
2019Virginia25National Champions
2019Duke66Elite 8
2019Michigan State48Final Four
2019North Carolina710Sweet 16
2021Gonzaga110National Runner-Up
2021Illinois75Round of 32
2021Michigan67Elite 8
2022Gonzaga17Sweet 16
2024Auburn104Round of 64

From this group...
100% Reached the Round of 64
97.4% Reached the Round of 32
87.2% Reached the Sweet 16
71.8% Reached the Elite 8
48.7% Reached the Final 4
30.8% Reached the National Title Game
15.4% Won the National Championship

At the moment, Duke and Iowa State are the only two teams in top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE.
Interesting that from 2001 through 2010, there was a team in the top 5 of both AdjOE and AdjDE most years (7 out of 10 years, with 2 teams in 2010 for a total of 8 teams in 10 years), whereas in the past 15 years, there has only been one single team (UVA in 2019) to achieve that metric. There's a story there, but I'm not sure what it is yet.

Of course, as the second table shows, when you expand the metric to top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE, a wealth of teams qualify.
 
YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2018Michigan99National Runner-Up
Thanks, DBA. This is great. One small nit: It was Michigan State, not Michigan who was in the dual top 10 in 2018. They lost in the 2nd round (rather than the championship game), so that changes your numbers a little bit.
 
I had some time and inclination to look up the pre-tourney stats from KenPom. As Kedsey noted, they only go back to 2001. Here are all the teams that were in the top 5 of both AdjOE and AdjDE, 2001-2024:

YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2001Duke22National Champions
2002Duke12Sweet 16
2004Duke33Final Four
2005Illinois25National Runner-Up
2007North Carolina32Elite 8
2008Kansas13National Champions
2010Kansas24Round of 32
2010Duke45National Champions
2019Virginia25National Champions

From this group...
100% Reached the Round of 64
100% Reached the Round of 32
88.9% Reached the Sweet 16
77.8% Reached the Elite 8
66.7% Reached the Final 4
55.6% Reached the National Title Game
44.4% Won the National Championship

Those are pretty good outcomes if you ask me.

There is a larger group of teams that were Top 10 in AdjOE and AdjDE. Here's that group, 2001-2024 (excluding Kansas in 2020 due to the lack of an NCAA Tournament that year):

YearTeamAdjOEAdjDENCAAT
2001Duke22National Champions
2001MSU38Final Four
2001Arizona103National Runner-Up
2002Duke12Sweet 16
2002Cincinnati71Round of 32
2002Kansas57Final Four
2003Kentucky84Elite 8
2004Duke33Final Four
2005Illinois25National Runner-Up
2005North Carolina36National Champions
2005Duke103Sweet 16
2006UConn89Elite 8
2007North Carolina32Elite 8
2007Ohio State610National Runner-Up
2008Kansas13National Champions
2008UCLA64Final Four
2008Duke87Round of 32
2010Kansas24Round of 32
2010Duke45National Champions
2011Duke65Sweet 16
2012Kentucky26National Champions
2012Ohio State73Final Four
2013Florida64Elite 8
2014Louisville76Sweet 16
2015Kentucky61Final Four
2016Kansas74Elite 8
2016Virginia86Elite 8
2017Gonzaga102National Runner-Up
2018Duke37Elite 8
2018Michigan99National Runner-Up
2019Virginia25National Champions
2019Duke66Elite 8
2019Michigan State48Final Four
2019North Carolina710Sweet 16
2021Gonzaga110National Runner-Up
2021Illinois75Round of 32
2021Michigan67Elite 8
2022Gonzaga17Sweet 16
2024Auburn104Round of 64

From this group...
100% Reached the Round of 64
97.4% Reached the Round of 32
87.2% Reached the Sweet 16
71.8% Reached the Elite 8
48.7% Reached the Final 4
30.8% Reached the National Title Game
15.4% Won the National Championship

At the moment, Duke and Iowa State are the only two teams in top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE.
I love the analysis but don’t you have to adjust in some way when there are multiple teams from the same year meeting the criteria? For example, in the top ten list there were multiple times with three teams meeting the criteria. It was impossible for all to win the national championship much less reach the finals. Not sure how you do it though…
 
Interesting that from 2001 through 2010, there was a team in the top 5 of both AdjOE and AdjDE most years (7 out of 10 years, with 2 teams in 2010 for a total of 8 teams in 10 years), whereas in the past 15 years, there has only been one single team (UVA in 2019) to achieve that metric. There's a story there, but I'm not sure what it is yet.

Of course, as the second table shows, when you expand the metric to top 10 of both AdjOE and AdjDE, a wealth of teams qualify.
I think the story may be the arbitrariness of picking #5 vs. #6 or #7:

2011: Duke 6/5
2012: UK 2/6; Ohio St 7/3
2013: Florida 6/4
2014: Louisville 7/6
2015: UK 6/1
2016: Kansas 7/4
2018: Duke 3/7
2019: Duke 6/6
2021: Illinoi 7/5
2021: Michigan 6/7
2022: Gonzaga 1/7
 
Thanks, DBA. This is great. One small nit: It was Michigan State, not Michigan who was in the dual top 10 in 2018. They lost in the 2nd round (rather than the championship game), so that changes your numbers a little bit.
I don't think that's right, Kedsey. Michigan was 9th in both AdjOE and AdjDE in the spreadsheet I downloaded for 2018. And then they lost to Virginia in the National Title Game.

EDIT: Nope, you were right. I didn't expand the cell margins far enough for State to show up. D'oh!
 
I don't think that's right, Kedsey. Michigan was 9th in both AdjOE and AdjDE in the spreadsheet I downloaded for 2018. And then they lost to Virginia in the National Title Game.

EDIT: Nope, you were right. I didn't expand the cell margins far enough for State to show up. D'oh!
I just re-downloaded it, and pre-tournament Michigan was #29 offense and #5 defense and Michigan State was #9 in both.
 
Back
Top