But we covered both....not sure why his algorithm see this win as sub par.The Vegas spread accounts for Brown being out; nerd polls don't.
-jk
But we covered both....not sure why his algorithm see this win as sub par.The Vegas spread accounts for Brown being out; nerd polls don't.
-jk
I cant say exactly but things like getting called for 21 fouls with BC only converting 54% of its FTs cause the score to be closer than our defense deserved. We also only caused 7 turnovers which I’m guessing is below average.But we covered both....not sure why his algorithm see this win as sub par.
Torvik heavily discounts late scoring in runaways. That might have something to do with it.Did we actually lose points in Bart Torvik's rankings after the BC game? We covered his spread but he only gives us a 93 in game ranking which is quite low.
Kinda odd
I get that but Torvik views the BC game as the same as the ND game. Against ND we were at home and didn't come close to covering Torvik's spread.....against BC we were on the road and did cover the spread.....just doesn't add up especially since we did get a bump in KenPom but lost points in Torvik.Torvik heavily discounts late scoring in runaways. That might have something to do with it.
I haven’t studied the intricacies of Torvik’s formulas but here are a couple of possibilities:I get that but Torvik views the BC game as the same as the ND game. Against ND we were at home and didn't come close to covering Torvik's spread.....against BC we were on the road and did cover the spread.....just doesn't add up especially since we did get a bump in KenPom but lost points in Torvik.
I think you're close, but it's slightly different. Torvik looks at a team's average lead throughout the game, so it rewards a team that has a big first half. If Duke's halves last night had been reversed, Duke's score would have been better:Torvik heavily discounts late scoring in runaways. That might have something to do with it.
Some of us non-stat heads would have guessed a LONG time before correctly naming Kaminsky, if asked who had the lone season that bested Flagg'sKenPom's Player of the Year metric now has Cooper with a big lead over Broome. If his current ranking holds, he would have the second highest ever for a season, just barely behind Frank Kaminsky.
This seems like the reason Duke dropped a bit in Torvik’s ratings. Duke trailed early and BC kept it close until sometime around the 12 minute mark in the 2nd half. As a result Torvik calculated Duke’s average lead as 5.7 points. In contrast, Torvik calculated Duke’s average lead vs ND as 11.1 points, even though the final score was closer.I think you're close, but it's slightly different. Torvik looks at a team's average lead throughout the game, so it rewards a team that has a big first half. If Duke's halves last night had been reversed, Duke's score would have been better:
"For the past two seasons I have produced separate ratings, the "Implied T-Rank," using the GameScript stat. What I do is use the GameScript stat—which represents a team's average lead or deficit during a game—to infer a final score, and then use this derived final score instead of the actual final score to create the ratings."
T-Rank Methodology Update
Adam Chorlton and Bart Torvik discuss Wisconsin sports, mostly the Badgers.adamcwisports.blogspot.com
Calculating "average lead" means that starting hot is more important than ending hot. Hmm.This seems like the reason Duke dropped a bit in Torvik’s ratings. Duke trailed early and BC kept it close until sometime around the 12 minute mark in the 2nd half. As a result Torvik calculated Duke’s average lead as 5.7 points. In contrast, Torvik calculated Duke’s average lead vs ND as 11.1 points, even though the final score was closer.
I’m not sure about the merits of using average margin vs final margin (which is what KenPom uses). I suspect that it mostly averages out over the course of the season, but it can produce differences in the way Torvik and KenPom evaluate individual games.
Thanks for the details. Using average lead effectively discounts late pull-aways - it’s just a novel way to do it.I think you're close, but it's slightly different. Torvik looks at a team's average lead throughout the game, so it rewards a team that has a big first half. If Duke's halves last night had been reversed, Duke's score would have been better:
"For the past two seasons I have produced separate ratings, the "Implied T-Rank," using the GameScript stat. What I do is use the GameScript stat—which represents a team's average lead or deficit during a game—to infer a final score, and then use this derived final score instead of the actual final score to create the ratings."
T-Rank Methodology Update
Adam Chorlton and Bart Torvik discuss Wisconsin sports, mostly the Badgers.adamcwisports.blogspot.com
How long did Frank last in the pros? I certainly don't know.Some of us non-stat heads would have guessed a LONG time before correctly naming Kaminsky, if asked who had the lone season that bested Flagg's
I believe he was drafted by the infamous Charlotte Hornets, which explains why no one has any memory of his pro career.How long did Frank last in the pros? I certainly don't know.
This seems like the reason Duke dropped a bit in Torvik’s ratings. Duke trailed early and BC kept it close until sometime around the 12 minute mark in the 2nd half. As a result Torvik calculated Duke’s average lead as 5.7 points. In contrast, Torvik calculated Duke’s average lead vs ND as 11.1 points, even though the final score was closer.
I’m not sure about the merits of using average margin vs final margin (which is what KenPom uses). I suspect that it mostly averages out over the course of the season, but it can produce differences in the way Torvik and KenPom evaluate individual games.
Thanks for this and for all the other related replies to my question.To be clear, neither Torvik nor Pomeroy explicitly care about final margin. They both care about adjusted efficiency margins. Also to be clear, Torvik doesn’t just use average margin. His metric just includes average margin additionally as a way to adjust for running up the score late or a team storming back once the game was already “over.” It is a “game control” measure as an auxiliary input rather than the primary measure.
As for why Torvik viewed the game as equal to the ND game, it is a combination of the “game control” measure (we had much better game control in the ND game, whereas we didn’t in the BC game) and the fact that BC is much worse than ND.
That said, I wouldn’t worry too much over it. A 93 game score is still very good (roughly about 15th nationally). To rate about 15th nationally in ehat clearly wasn’t our A game is fine.
Eight years, or $22 million -- whichever measure you prefer.I believe he was drafted by the infamous Charlotte Hornets, which explains why no one has any memory of his pro career.
He was on an NBA court as recently as 2023. He’s now playing w the Raptors G league team. Outlasted both Jah and Justice from our 2015 national title battle.I believe he was drafted by the infamous Charlotte Hornets, which explains why no one has any memory of his pro career.
I really thought both Jah and Justise were destined for NBA greatness.He was on an NBA court as recently as 2023. He’s now playing w the Raptors G league team. Outlasted both Jah and Justice from our 2015 national title battle.