MBB: Duke vs. Wake Forest (Saturday 1/25, 4:30pm ET, ESPN) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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Wake looked like a KenPom 70s team tonight. Rough. Sally's and Hildreth putting up awful shots. Missing 3-pointers badly. The only guy who worries me is Reid inside - he's got that Venning body and game.

We could lose to Wake this year. But the gap in talent between our two teams is wide, so we could also beat them by 20+.
Wake had just 7 assists and shot 2-15 from 3-pt

They may shoot better vs Duke, but it's not easy to get a quick fix on team play and passing as reflected in assists

**additional note -- they got just 2 points off the bench and had very high minutes for three starters

 
OB and Jon Crispin on the call for ESPN, 4:30 EST, unless UK at Vandy goes into double-OT, in which case ESPN News or whatever.

ETA — Maybe some conversation about Crispin over on Announcer thread.....
 
OB and Jon Crispin on the call for ESPN, 4:30 EST, unless UK at Vandy goes into double-OT, in which case ESPN News or whatever.

ETA — Maybe some conversation about Crispin over on Announcer thread.....
Who is OB? Some of us old people can't or don't keep up with all the initials or the cool, in group names. Please have some mercy and spell out who or what you mean.
 
I believe OB is Dave O'Brien – you'll frequently hear Cory Alexander calling him "OB" when they announce together
 
Surprised by all the Wake hate tbh. They’ve had a ton of really fun players to watch over the years, and as a small private school Wake is closer to Duke than any other school in the (original) conference.

I love when they asked Dave Odom why he left Wake to go to South Carolina: “I was tired of being everybody’s second-favorite team.”

For me it was last year's game and Wake fans' reactions to it. I did however always liked the Duncan years and as you said, they are closer to us. I'll probably forget about it if we beat them a few times. 🤞
 
With Wake’s win last night, as ugly as it was, the game Saturday is now…

Wait for it…

A Q1 game!

Cue sarcastic memes.

But all kidding aside, this is a nontrivial development from a resume perspective, particularly since Pitt’s slide has cost us a Q1 win. We have precious few of these opportunities left, so it’s all the more important we convert.
 
With Wake’s win last night, as ugly as it was, the game Saturday is now…

Wait for it…

A Q1 game!

Cue sarcastic memes.

But all kidding aside, this is a nontrivial development from a resume perspective, particularly since Pitt’s slide has cost us a Q1 win. We have precious few of these opportunities left, so it’s all the more important we convert.
Very true. Pitt's slide has been unfortunate for our resume, hopefully they can get it together.

An under the radar boon are the George Mason Patriots who just entered the top 75 in the NET, giving us a Q2 win! Out of all of our buy games, that one definitely felt like the most real competition and it's reflected in their recent performances. GM played some tough defense.
 
Wake had just 7 assists and shot 2-15 from 3-pt

They may shoot better vs Duke, but it's not easy to get a quick fix on team play and passing as reflected in assists
Wake is now ranked #350 in three-point percentage (28.1). They're bound to recover from this "slump" soon.
 
Will be at the game on Saturday and am really hoping for a cold and merciless dispatching of the Deacs, as last year's game left a bad taste on many levels. Not only the loss and court storming, but also the (over)reaction by our program and, especially, our fan base (calling for a forfeit, lawsuits, a massive fine, etc.). Especially after Flip started and played 30 minutes in a blowout win over Louisville four days later. YMMV, but not our finest moment IMHO.
 
With Wake’s win last night, as ugly as it was, the game Saturday is now…

Wait for it…

A Q1 game!

Cue sarcastic memes.

But all kidding aside, this is a nontrivial development from a resume perspective, particularly since Pitt’s slide has cost us a Q1 win. We have precious few of these opportunities left, so it’s all the more important we convert.
We don’t need no stinking resume. We ARE DUKE.
 
I wonder, with the week off, if Duke will work on some zone defense. Syracuse is coming up in early February. The Orange are hitting well below 30% from 3 in ACC Play. It might be worth throwing out a zone look for a couple possessions to confuse the opposing offense.
 
The 2nd-ranked Blue Devils got a victory in Boston and have nearly a week to rest and prepare for an early bird special game on Saturday in Winston-Salem against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, airing on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats)...

The Deacs have won 5 straight, and are 9-0 on their home floor this season. Unlike Duke, they have a game to play before Saturday, hosting UNC on Tuesday night. We'll see if their winning streaks can continue. Team stats will not be updated until Wednesday morning, so I should have a proper game preview available sometime after that.

Make it 6 straight for Wake Forest and 10-0 in Winston-Salem. They defeated UNC on Tuesday night (67-66: recap, box score, highlights, full replay). Head coach Steve Forbes, now in his 5th season on the job, has his team at 15-4 overall and 7-1 in the ACC. They really don't have any bad losses, so why are their computer rankings so low? As far as I can tell, it's because they haven't been dominant against Quad 4 opponents, winning by 10 when they should have won by 30.


The Demon Deacons will be entering Saturday's contest with only 9 available scholarship players on their roster. Marqus Marion and Mason Hagedorn are 2 of the 4 players redshirting, while Iowa State transfer Omaha Biliew (#11 in the 2023 prep class, according to RSCI) has been injured most of the season. He recovered from a foot injury back in November and returned last weekend for the Virginia Tech game, where he suffered an unrelated ankle injury. Conor O'Neill, publisher of Wake's (and Duke's) Rivals affiliate, reported Monday that Biliew would miss 7-10 more days:


PROBABLE STARTERS

6-5 senior guard Hunter Sallis #23 (19.2 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.3 stl)
6-4 senior guard Cameron Hildreth #6 (14.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.5 stl)
6-7 senior forward Tre'Von Spillers #25 (10.4 pts, 8.8 reb, 0.5 ast, 1.6 blk)
7-0 senior post Efton Reid #4 (7.9 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-0 sophomore guard Ty-Laur Johnson #8 (5.0 pts, 2.0 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.4 stl)

TOP RESERVES

6-7 freshman guard Juke Harris #2 (5.6 pts, 2.6 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-5 sophomore guard Davin Cosby #1 (5.6 pts, 1.3 reb, 0.9 ast)
6-4 sophomore guard Parker Friedrichsen #7 (3.4 pts, 1.2 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-10 sophomore post Churchill Abass #55 (1.5 pts, 1.8 reb, 0.2 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

6-3 senior guard Kevin Dunn #51 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-5 senior guard RJ Kennah #40 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-7 junior forward Owen Kmety #44 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)

INJURED/OTHER

6-8 sophomore forward Omaha Biliew #0 (4.0 pts, 1.8 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.0 stl) -- ankle injury, out 7-10 days
6-9 freshman forward Mason Hagedorn #20 -- redshirt
6-9 sophomore forward Marqus Marion #11 -- redshirt
6-6 sophomore forward Vincent Ricchiuti #45 -- redshirt
6-3 sophomore guard Will Underwood #52 -- redshirt

Coach Forbes is heavily reliant on his top 3 scorers: Hunter Sallis, Cameron Hildreth, and Tre'Von Spillers. Each is averaging over 33 minutes per game, and their usage has actually gone up in conference play. Sallis is out there for 36.1 minutes per game, tops in the ACC.

After a somewhat nondescript November and December, Sallis finally looks like the heavily hyped awards magnet predicted in the preseason. On Monday, he was named ACC Player of the Week: "In the Demon Deacons’ 80-67 win over Stanford on Wednesday, January 15, Sallis scored 30 points, going 12-of-17 from the field and 3-of-5 from behind the arc. He followed that up by recording 24 points, seven rebounds and two steals in the 72-63 win at Virginia Tech on Saturday, January 18. He was 10-of-17 from the field and 3-of-7 from 3-point range. He has posted seven consecutive showings of 20-plus points – the best stretch in his collegiate career."

Spillers, an Appalachian State transfer, has been a bright spot for a team that does not otherwise rebound well on either side of the court. His 8.8 average is 3rd in the conference, behind Stanford's Maxime Raynaud and Clemson's Ian Schieffelin, who are double-double machines and will probably both make the All-ACC first team by season's end. Spillers is also averaging 1.6 blocks, about tied with Clemson's Viktor Lakhin and NC State's Ben Middlebrooks as the league's best.

Some team shooting numbers stand out. Wake ranks in the nation's bottom 10 when it comes to 3-pointers (28.1 percent). Aside from the injured Biliew (42.9 percent in modest volume), they don't have a reliable outside shooter. Reserve Davin Cosby Jr comes closest, making 31.6 percent off of about 5 attempts per game. Sallis shoots them a bit more often but is still under 30 percent. That's still much better than Parker Friedrichsen, who shot 36.5 percent as a freshman last season, but is in a sophomore slump, with an abysmal 19.7 percent. The Deacs hit 75.1 percent of their free throws, which is both decent and misleading. Sallis and Hildreth account for half of the team's trips to the line, and together they make about 84 percent.

For more team stats of Wake Forest and Duke, I provide a friendly pair of tables below, with massive assistance from Sports Reference and additional credited sources. (FYI: Duke now leads the country in scoring margin.) One new feature: I've added links to each team's NET Summary; now you can see which previous games belong to which quadrants.

Bart Torvik is projecting a 71-58 Duke victory.

TABLE 1

CategoryWake Forest (15-4, 7-1 ACC)Duke (16-2, 8-0 ACC)
Points Scored70.7 (271st nationally)81.3 (45th)
Points Allowed65.7 (41st)59.5 (6th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)+5.0 (154th)+21.8 (1st)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)13.3 (343rd)21.6 (187th)
Total Rebounds33.9 (289th)39.5 (35th)
--- Offensive Rebounds9.4 (284th)11.1 (161st)
--- Defensive Rebounds24.5 (228th)28.4 (19th)
Assists11.4 (331st)17.3 (19th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)0.98 (278th)1.72 (7th)
Steals7.6 (113th)6.7 (218th)
Blocks4.5 (59th)3.7 (132nd)
Turnovers11.6 (148th fewest)10.1 (24th fewest)
Personal Fouls16.4 (141st fewest)15.7 (84th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage44.5% (203rd)48.5% (31st)
2-Point FG Percentage54.5% (100th)58.4% (16th)
3-Point FG Percentage28.1% (356th)37.5% (36th)
Free Throw Percentage75.1% (73rd)76.1% (50th)

TABLE 2

CategoryWake Forest (15-4, 7-1 ACC)Duke (16-2, 8-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#74 (NET Summary)#2 (NET Summary)
--- Strength of Schedule74th35th
--- Quad 11-44-2
--- Quad 21-02-0
--- Quad 37-05-0
--- Quad 46-05-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#79#1
--- Offensive Efficiency167th5th
--- Defensive Efficiency28th2nd
--- Tempo226th272nd
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com)7.3 (307th)11.2 (133th)
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#86 (T-Page)#3 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.215 (119th)0.994 (360th)
--- Talent68.266 (16th)81.245 (3rd)

NET quadrants explained:

The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 5 slowest teams, and is KenPom #3.
Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
 
I wonder, with the week off, if Duke will work on some zone defense. Syracuse is coming up in early February. The Orange are hitting well below 30% from 3 in ACC Play. It might be worth throwing out a zone look for a couple possessions to confuse the opposing offense.
It seems to me that our regular defense is doing a pretty good job with the whole confusing the opposing offense thing.
 
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