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MBB: Duke vs. Baylor (NCAAT, Sun 3/23, 2:40pm ET, CBS) Pregame and In-Game Thread
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wavedukefan70s
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I worry about teams with a entire line up of mostly 6'6 more or less guys. Mainly from defensive standpoint from our big guys . Especially when they have nothing to lose .
If we can come in focused . Then play solid Defense we should be fine .
Ofcourse i could be skewed some due to the fact I'm attached to this team . I really am sold on these guys this year.
If we can come in focused . Then play solid Defense we should be fine .
Ofcourse i could be skewed some due to the fact I'm attached to this team . I really am sold on these guys this year.
The best part about this year's Duke team is that we can matchup with just about any style that the opposition can throw at us.
We can also put out a lineup to match them if we wanted to.
brevity
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Ages ago, at the beginning of the 2024-2025 season, Baylor was ranked #8 in the AP Poll, one of five Big 12 teams in the top 10. (This was before the sports world realized that the SEC is the greatest basketball conference of all time, and will stay that way forever.) The Bears had a rude awakening in their very first game, losing by 38 to Gonzaga in Spokane. They salvaged their November with neutral court wins over then-ranked Arkansas (in Dallas) and still-ranked St. John's (in the Bahamas). Jeremy Roach helped deliver that island win with a buzzer-beating three at the end of the second overtime.
Since then, however, their most impressive win was at home against Kansas, and they also have a pair of road victories against Utah and Arizona State that just make the Quad 1 cutoff. And, of course, they beat Mississippi State on Friday to get to the second round. Otherwise, they have been fairly consistent in losing to better teams in their conference, as well as non-conference teams like Tennessee and Connecticut (and, it Bears repeating, Gonzaga). They finished 20-14 overall and 10-10 in their conference, tied for 7th with unlucky West Virginia. Baylor lost to 2-seed Texas Tech in a Big 12 quarterfinal.
This is the time of year where Baylor's athletic department has to hire temp employees to field all the phone calls that head coach Scott Drew receives for every new job opening. But slow down with the speed dial, anxious headhunters. Coach Drew will soon complete his 22nd season in Waco, and should pick up his 500th win at Baylor within the next two seasons. Maybe he likes where he is, or maybe the right job hasn't opened yet. Texas? UCLA? Maybe even Kansas? The coaching carousel might become interesting in the next few weeks.
Let's take a look at Coach Drew's roster. Its construction looked promising in the offseason, as he added a solid recruiting class plus three incoming transfers -- Duke's Jeremy Roach, Miami's Norchad Omier, and California's Jalen Celestine -- to a set of established and developing returners. As the season transpired, however, the balance has seemed off, and there have been regular setbacks due to injuries. Roach, for example, suffered a concussion in early December when his team lost to Connecticut -- listening to Dan Hurley would probably make me hit my head against a wall, so I understand. More recently, the team has been without 6-10 junior Josh Ojianwuna, who started for the Bears until he injured his knee against UCF in February; the Baylor Lariat reported that he would have season-ending surgery.
PROBABLE STARTERS
6-7 fifth-year forward Norchad Omier #15 (15.8 pts, 10.9 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.2 stl, 1.0 blk)
6-5 freshman guard VJ Edgecombe #7 (15.0 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.3 ast, 2.1 stl)
6-1 freshman guard Robert Wright III #1 (11.5 pts, 2.1 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-5 redshirt junior guard Langston Love #13 (8.7 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.2 ast)
6-6 grad guard Jalen Celestine #32 (7.2 pts, 3.6 reb, 0.8 ast)
TOP RESERVES
6-2 fifth-year guard Jeremy Roach #3 (10.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.6 ast)
6-4 senior guard Jayden Nunn #2 (8.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.0 stl)
BENCH PLAYERS
6-8 freshman forward Jason Asemota #5 (1.7 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.2 ast)
6-4 redshirt freshman guard Omar Adegbola #25 (1.2 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.1 ast)
6-10 freshman forward Marino Dubravcic #22 (0.5 pts, 0.5 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-5 grad guard Davidson Hubbard #21 (0.7 pts, 0.6 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 freshman guard Kaleb Jackson #11
INJURED/OTHER
6-10 junior forward Josh Ojianwuna #17 (7.4 pts, 6.4 reb, 0.6 ast) -- knee injury, out for season
6-5 sophomore guard Cameron Carr #43 -- Tennessee transfer, sitting out spring semester
6-7 redshirt sophomore forward Yanis Ndjonga #41 -- knee injury, has not played this season
When the Big 12 announced its end-of-year honors earlier this month, Norchad Omier was named to the All-Conference First Team, while VJ Edgecombe was Freshman of the Year and made the All-Conference Second Team, and Robert Wright III joined Edgecombe on the All-Freshman Team and was an All-Conference honorable mention. Omier had a double-double in 22 games this season, including each of his last 10 games. His 10.9 rebounding average leads the Big 12.
Edgecombe is one of five guards who average between 4-5 three point attempts per game -- the others are Celestine, Love, Nunn, and Roach -- and each hits between 31 and 41 percent. Wright, who played alongside Cooper Flagg at Montverde Academy last year, joined the starting lineup in mid-January and has thrived there, scoring a career high 24 points in the Kansas win. In fact, most of his best performances have come against teams in the NCAA Tournament.
As a team, Baylor is actually shorter than Mount St. Mary's was, both in terms of average height and effective height. It can't help that two of their frontcourt players are injured, and one of their taller guards is not eligible until the fall semester. If Coach Drew needs depth, he'll have to turn to freshmen on the bench who normally do not play too many minutes.
Despite their size, the Bears average 12.8 offensive rebounds, 35th in the nation, and Omier alone provides 4 of them per game. You can find more stats for Baylor and Duke in the tables below, created with the help of Sports Reference and other listed sources.
Bart Torvik predicts the Blue Devils to win 76-65, sending the Bears to hibernation.
TABLE 1
| Category | Baylor (20-14, 10-10 Big 12) | Duke (32-3, 19-1 ACC) |
| Points Scored | 76.4 (107th nationally) | 83.0 (13th) |
| Points Allowed | 69.2 (90th) | 61.5 (6th) |
| Scoring Margin (NCAA.com) | +7.2 (64th) | +21.5 (1st) |
| Bench Points (NCAA.com) | 17.9 (240th) | 21.5 (131st) |
| Total Rebounds | 36.0 (137th) | 38.8 (24th) |
| --- Offensive Rebounds | 12.8 (35th) | 11.1 (143rd) |
| --- Defensive Rebounds | 23.2 (299th) | 27.7 (15th) |
| Assists | 14.6 (108th) | 16.9 (19th) |
| Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com) | 1.33 (81st) | 1.80 (4th) |
| Steals | 7.7 (82nd) | 7.0 (153rd) |
| Blocks | 2.9 (247th) | 3.8 (98th) |
| Turnovers | 11.0 (110th fewest) | 9.4 (11th fewest) |
| Personal Fouls | 16.3 (132nd fewest) | 15.8 (88th fewest) |
| Field Goal Percentage | 44.8% (170th) | 48.8% (15th) |
| 2-Point FG Percentage | 51.4% (190th) | 58.2% (9th) |
| 3-Point FG Percentage | 34.8% (131st) | 37.7% (21st) |
| Free Throw Percentage | 74.6% (89th) | 78.4% (16th) |
TABLE 2
| Category | Baylor (20-14, 10-10 Big 12) | Duke (32-3, 19-1 ACC) |
| NET Ranking (NCAA.com) | #30 (NET Summary) | #1 (NET Summary) |
| --- Strength of Schedule | 8th | 57th |
| --- Quad 1 | 6-12 | 9-3 |
| --- Quad 2 | 7-1 | 7-0 |
| --- Quad 3 | 1-1 | 10-0 |
| --- Quad 4 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) | #29 | #1 |
| --- Offensive Efficiency | 16th | 3rd |
| --- Defensive Efficiency | 57th | 4th |
| --- Tempo | 320th | 262nd |
| Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com) | 10.2 (153rd) | 11.8 (81st) |
| T-Rank (Bart Torvik) | #27 (T-Page) | #2 (T-Page) |
| --- Experience | 1.870 (244th) | 0.969 (361st) |
| --- Talent | 56.167 (41st) | 80.701 (3rd) |
| --- Average Height | 76.958 (212th) | 79.760 (1st) |
| --- Effective Height | 79.550 (257th) | 82.209 (8th) |
Drummerdowning
Member
I've been watching this team since I was 3 years old. I have never seen a team with the chemistry, unselfishness, and "win the next play" mentality that this team has shown. I'm feeling very confident about Duke vs Baylor tomorrow. I think if we lead with our defense, we should win relatively comfortably. The only way this game is close is if we come out soft like we did versus Louisville. I don't think that's going to happen. Duke 78 Baylor 65
OldPhiKap
Super Moderator
Yup (postflop). Similarly, pocket aces are 85% preflop against a random hand. “I got my aces cracked” is a saying for a reason.
TCB, baby.
As long as we’re not holding Aces and Eights.
CheatH8ter
Member
If we win we play a Sweet Sixteen game in Newark, full of Duke fans, against either Arizona or Oregon who are very far west.
Indoor66
Well-known member
AND with our back to the door.
I feel confident Duke should have a pretty good crowd tomorrow. I can't see droves of Ex-Con fans or UF fans flying into RDU for a Sunday game.
DonerKebab
Member
The thing that would worry me is if one or more of Flagg, Man Man and Pat getting into foul trouble against Omier and VJ.
mattyoung18
Member
I'd be interested in seeing our small lineup with Copper at the 5 and Kon maybe Gillis at the 4.This team has a lot of options.We could stretch the floor with that group.
AGDukesky
Member
Why against VJ? He’s a 6’5” perimeter player.
Driving the ball
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