MBB: Duke vs. Arizona (NCAAT, Thu 3/27, 9:39pm ET, CBS) Pregame and In-Game Thread

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MChambers said:
Seems silly. There are lower seeds than Arizona left -- Ole Miss, BYU, Arkansas, Michigan, did I leave anyone out?
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I don’t love the Arizona matchup at all but I can see the argument. Arizona is a better team, for instance, than Michigan. But Michigan is such a weird matchup with their twin towers that you probably don’t want to face them with just a few days to prepare. Same with BYU and their plethora of shooters. Meanwhile, Arkansas has lots of NBA talent and Thiero could be back. All three of those teams I’d say are worse than Arizona, but are harder tournament matchups.
 
scottdude8 said:
I don’t love the Arizona matchup at all but I can see the argument. Arizona is a better team, for instance, than Michigan. But Michigan is such a weird matchup with their twin towers that you probably don’t want to face them with just a few days to prepare. Same with BYU and their plethora of shooters. Meanwhile, Arkansas has lots of NBA talent and Thiero could be back. All three of those teams I’d say are worse than Arizona, but are harder tournament matchups.
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Ole Miss?
 
I want to say our team this year reminds me of UConn last year. But I won't jinx it, Arizona is going to beat us, Caleb Love will score 30, and we lose by that much.
 
stickdog said:
Unadjusted season long team offensive ratings since 1996-97: https://stathead.com/tiny/X4grB
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It seems a little odd that 8 of the top 14 team season-long highest performing offenses of the last 30 years would be clustered in the last 2 seasons.

I'm guessing this is due in part to offense in general getting better because teams are not turning if over as much? And, maybe also that teams are both shooting more three pointers and, in the years following the rise of Steph Curry, there's more guys who can shoot 3s?
 
duke79 said:
Looks like Duke opens as an 8.5 favorite in this game. I don't have the exact stats in front of me, but I believe Duke has beaten the point spread in a large majority of its games this season. Duke is still the odds on favorite to win the entire tourney.
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Duke is around #7-#9 against the spread this season, depending on whether one measures it by pure record against the spread, or by average margin vs. the spread. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/trends/ats_trends/

Others still in the tourney who've been especially good against the spread are Florida and Michigan St.; as were UCSD, Robert Morris and Omaha.

NCAA Basketball Team ATS Trends - All Games, 2024-2025

Best teams by cover %
1 Florida A&M 23-7-0 (76.7%)
2 Robert Morris 26-8-0 (76.5%)
3 UCSD 25-8-0 (75.8%)
4 Florida 26-10-0 (72.2%)
5 San Jose St 23-9-1 (71.9%)
6 Michigan St 24-10-1 (70.6%)
7 S Carolina St 21-9-2 (70.0%)
8 Omaha 23-10-0 (69.7%)
T9 Duke 24-12-0 and SE Missouri St 20-10-0 (66.7%)

Best teams by average margin vs. the spread
1 S Carolina St +7.1
2 UCSD +6.4
3 Dartmouth +5.4
4 Florida +5.2
5 Omaha +4.8
6 Robert Morris +4.8
T7 Duke and SE Missouri St +4.5
 
nmduke2001 said:
I hate that we are the late game. I think it really penalizes the winning team of that matchup that includes the number 1 seed. The early game winner will do their presser and watch our game while having something to eat. They'll get to their hotel around midnight and get some rest. The winner of the late game will get to the press room after midnight. They will be lucky to get to the hotel by 2:00 am. That wrecks your next day. Maybe, they sleep in, but that messes up your schedule. I just think that it is unfair to the number one seed.

Having said that, I think Duke is a better team than Arizona and Duke should win if they play well.
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These kids want to play under the brightest lights. I think they can handle a big time game at a big time national TV time slot.
 
MChambers said:
All answered here: https://briangeisinger.substack.com/p/film-room-how-dukes-defense-powered

"Love, however, got a different treatment. As its primary coverage vs. Love, Duke hedged ball screens, with the center jumping out at the veteran guard 20+ feet from the rim."
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I suspect we'll see more of the same. Hard to see Arizona winning without a stellar game from Love but their supporting cast has been playing better as of late, in particular in shooting the 3 ball as Arizona is hitting at a 44% clip over the last 5 games.

But Love and the rest of their three guard line up will rarely see a defender shorter than 6'6" on Thursday night. Hopefully that makes a difference.
 
scottdude8 said:
I don’t love the Arizona matchup at all but I can see the argument. Arizona is a better team, for instance, than Michigan. But Michigan is such a weird matchup with their twin towers that you probably don’t want to face them with just a few days to prepare. Same with BYU and their plethora of shooters. Meanwhile, Arkansas has lots of NBA talent and Thiero could be back. All three of those teams I’d say are worse than Arizona, but are harder tournament matchups.
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This is where I stand, too. We can beat any team in the field but apart from the obvious top teams who we may play in the Final Four if we make it that far (Houston, Florida), I’m glad we’re not facing Michigan or Arkansas on Thursday…and yes, even Ole Miss would make me more nervous given how well they played last weekend.

Arizona will be very tough, but as long we avoid the obvious pitfalls (foul trouble, carelessness with the ball, outlier poor shooting from us or unconscious shooting from them), they seem manageable. I’ll be scared as hell watching at Prudential in a few days, but we can do it. 😉
 
Nugget said:
It seems a little odd that 8 of the top 14 team season-long highest performing offenses of the last 30 years would be clustered in the last 2 seasons.

I'm guessing this is due in part to offense in general getting better because teams are not turning if over as much? And, maybe also that teams are both shooting more three pointers and, in the years following the rise of Steph Curry, there's more guys who can shoot 3s?
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I don’t know if this is statistical noise, but I do know that the last two years have been unlike prior years in terms of super seniors, portal and NIL. It isn’t beyond imagination that these factors led to some anomalies.
 
Love shoots less than 40 percent from the floor and 32 percent from 3. If he goes off as some people people think, it will be an aberration.
 
The "bad matchup" question isn't just about the quality of the opponent, it's about how that opponent matches up with Duke. But Duke is an extremely complete team on both sides of the ball. It's not like Duke has an obvious Achilles heel like lack of interior size, or poor three point defense, or something similar that an opponent could exploit. What phase of the game is this Duke team mediocre or worse at? Duke is solid across the board, so most matchups will favor Duke.

I'd buy that any of the teams remaining could just be "better" than Duke for one game. There is enough ability for all 15 of them that a loss is reasonably within the delta of possible outcomes. But I don't think it would be because their personnel was uniquely primed to exploit an obvious Duke weakness.
 
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