MBB: Duke at Louisville (Tuesday 1/6, 7pm ET, ESPN) Pregame & In-Game Thread

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Fresh off a win in Tallahassee, the Duke Blue Devils (13-1, 2-0 ACC) soon return to the road to face the Louisville Cardinals (11-3, 1-1 ACC) in a Tuesday night clash at the 22,000-seat KFC Yum! Center. The game tips off at 7pm ET, to watch or stream on ESPN (streaming link, listen, live stats). Both teams are ranked in the AP poll: Duke at #6 and Louisville at #16. This is the first of two regular season matchups with the Cards; they'll play again in Cameron on January 26.


Louisville is promoting Tuesday's game as a Stripe Out. (Please note the spelling; this is very different from the Strip Out promotions back when Rick Pitino was coaching there.) Fans in odd-numbered sections wear black, while those in even-numbered sections wear red. So it would look like this:

louisvillestripeout.jpg

Maybe a little intimidating from a cardinal's eye view, but after the jump ball, we usually don't see the arena from overhead.

Head coach Pat Kelsey :geek: is in his second season at the helm. He has returned from a West Coast trip last week in which his team beat California on Tuesday, but lost to Stanford on Friday (80-76: recap, box score, highlights, presser). The Cards were without starting point guard Mikel Brown Jr and reserve forward Kasean Pryor. Ryan Conwell led the team with 18 points, but shot an uncharacteristic 2-of-14 from outside. Adrian Wooley replaced Brown in the starting lineup, but collected 4 fouls in only 15 minutes of play.



Coach Kelsey: "It was a three-point game with a minute left. [Stanford] drove right to the basket, got an easy layup. You know, you have to be able to get stops and defend at a really high level to win on the road. Credit to Stanford, they were better tonight. We've got to get back home, rest, recover, and then have a couple of really good days of preparation for a terrific Duke team in a few days."

Here's a look at the Cardinals roster. It's uncertain whether Mikel Brown Jr (lower back injury, day-to-day) or Kasean Pryor (lingering knee issues, did not practice last week) will be available to play against Duke, based on recent comments from Coach Kelsey. ACC teams are now required to provide injury reports before each conference game, but we might not see them until game day, and even then, a designation like "Game Time Decision" does not definitively tell us anything.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-4 senior guard Ryan Conwell #3 (19.6 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.4 stl)
6-5 freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr #0 (16.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.1 ast)
6-4 senior guard Isaac McKneely #10 (11.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.2 ast)
6-11 junior post Sananda Fru #13 (11.1 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.4 blk)
6-7 sixth-year guard J'Vonne Hadley #1 (10.3 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.5 ast)

KEY RESERVES

6-4 sophomore guard Adrian Wooley #14 (9.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.6 ast)
6-10 sophomore forward Khani Rooths #9 (6.4 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.2 ast)
6-3 redshirt senior guard Kobe Rodgers #11 (4.5 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.1 stl)
6-10 sixth-year forward Kasean Pryor #7 (3.1 pts, 2.6 reb, 0.4 ast)
7-0 redshirt senior center Aly Khalifa #15 (2.1 pts, 2.2 reb, 3.1 ast)
6-8 junior post Vangelis Zougris #53 (2.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 0.8 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

5-11 senior guard Cole Sherman #4 (1.3 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.1 ast)
6-7 senior guard Spencer Legg #55 (0.6 pts, 0.4 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-4 freshman guard Will Hanke #33 (0.3 pts, 0.6 reb, 0.0 ast)

OTHER/INJURED

6-8 freshman forward Mouhamed Camara #12 -- will redshirt 2025-26; link
6-3 freshman guard London Johnson #5 -- G-League addition, will redshirt 2025-26; link

You'll notice that, when healthy, each of Louisville's starting five (a 4-guard lineup) averages between 10-20 points per game. Ryan Conwell is the ACC's most prolific 3-point shooter; he leads the league and is top 10 nationally in both 3-point attempts (139) and makes (52). Before the Stanford loss, he was hitting 50-of-125 from outside, or exactly 40 percent. Sananda Fru is a 23-year-old newcomer to college basketball, who was granted 2 years of NCAA eligibility after 4 years as a German pro. He is 6th in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage, making 78.9 percent of those inside shots. (Duke's Maliq Brown tops the nation in that category, with 87.2 percent.)

I'll have more to say about the Cardinals a bit later, but I thought I would get this thread started early, due to increased interest in the matchup between these two teams. Discuss Tuesday's game here.
 
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Thanks, as always, Brevity for getting this started! I'm definitely worried about playing these birdies! This will obviously be a big test to see if this "one-game" (two-game, three-game, I've lost track at this point) anomaly is just that or really the sign of something more. They're not a very tall team but I don't know if that's a good thing or bad thing for our bigs. It will definitely be another road test for us and will hopefully set us up for good things (either way) when they make the return trip to Cameron.
 
This is one of three games where Torvik says we are the underdog. They’ve got good guard play, so CJS will need to make some adjustments. We should probably not bother with M2M unless Dame is in there. Three point defense will be paramount. They shoot a lot of 3s with so-so effectiveness.
 
I hope the bench gives the starters excellent relief. Khamenia and Harris will hopefully give the team good minutes. Neither of them did much against Florida State. Every player needs to be locked in to get a victory on the road.
 
Sananda Fru is a 23-year-old newcomer to college basketball, who was granted 2 years of NCAA eligibility after 4 years as a German pro. He is 6th in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage, making 78.9 percent of those inside shots. (Duke's Maliq Brown tops the nation in that category, with 87.2 percent.)
Sorry to take this off on a tangent, but how in the world does the NCAA arrive at 2 years here? JUCO doesn't count, DII or DIII do, and European pro league experience is some kind of hybrid?
 
I was looking forward to us matching up against Mikel Brown Jr. He is outstanding and it will be a disappointment if he isn't able to play. Sounds like he should be healthy for the rematch, though.
 
I was looking forward to us matching up against Mikel Brown Jr. He is outstanding and it will be a disappointment if he isn't able to play. Sounds like he should be healthy for the rematch, though.
The quotes in this article from Kelsey don't, to me, make it sound like Brown is ready-to-go for Tuesday.
 
I'll have more to say about the Cardinals a bit later, but I thought I would get this thread started early, due to increased interest in the matchup between these two teams.

Based on the comparison table below, Louisville and Duke are fairly close in several statistical categories, like scoring margin, assists, turnovers, and 3-point percentage. But keep in mind that the Cards shoot a lot more threes: they average 34.6 attempts per game (5th in the nation) and make 12.2 of them (4th). The Blue Devils average 28.1 attempts and 9.9 makes (both 53rd). Most stats listed are courtesy of Sports Reference.

Let's look at Louisville's 3-point shooting a little more closely. Bart Torvik has a very interesting shooting stats table that, if you click over, should be sorted by the third to last column, which is the share of threes on the offensive end. This just means the percentage of total shots taken that are from beyond the arc, and the teams who emphasize threes the most are Louisville (54.6%), Florida State (53.8%), and Alabama (also 53.8%). For some context, only 17 Division I men's teams shoot more threes than twos, and Duke's share of threes is 47.2%, or 39th nationally. Having just played FSU, the Devils already have some idea of how Louisville's shot selection will go, though the Cardinals do not play nearly as fast a tempo as the Seminoles.

Speaking of Torvik, he sees Louisville as the favorite on their home floor, and predicts them to beat Duke by a score of 83-79.

TABLE 1
CategoryLouisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC)Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC)
Points Scored90.4 (18th nationally)87.3 (33rd)
Points Allowed69.1 (83rd)65.5 (28th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.org Stats)+21.3 (11th)+21.8 (9th)
Bench Points (NCAA.org Stats)22.6 (223rd)23.6 (193rd)
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.org Stats)7.4 (335th)14.4 (67th)
Total Rebounds42.4 (17th)41.4 (28th)
--- Offensive Rebounds13.3 (54th)12.6 (94th)
--- Defensive Rebounds29.1 (16th)28.8 (22nd)
--- Rebound Margin (NCAA.org Stats)+8.9 (25th)+10.5 (14th)
Assists18.5 (27th)18.3 (33rd)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.org Stats)1.61 (34th)1.58 (42nd)
Steals7.6 (129th)8.1 (95th)
Blocks3.7 (141st)4.6 (59th)
Turnovers11.5 (125th fewest)11.6 (132nd fewest)
--- Turnover Margin (NCAA.org Stats)-1.8 (106th)-1.9 (96th)
Personal Fouls20.0 (327th fewest)16.9 (120th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage47.1% (104th)49.8% (31st)
2-Point FG Percentage61.3% (19th)62.6% (9th)
3-Point FG Percentage35.3% (114th)35.4% (111th)
Free Throw Percentage77.5% (24th)71.6% (187th)

TABLE 2
CategoryLouisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC)Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.org Stats)#14 (NET Summary)#7 (NET Summary)
--- Strength of Schedule40th34th
--- Quad 12-34-1
--- Quad 22-02-0
--- Quad 31-02-0
--- Quad 46-05-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#12#9
--- Offensive Efficiency4th11th
--- Defensive Efficiency44th16th
--- Tempo69th179th
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#11 (T-Page)#12 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.172 (101st)0.884 (363rd)
--- Talent40.957 (65th)91.081 (1st)
--- Effective Height81.787 (23rd)81.524 (39th)
--- Average Height78.323 (44th)79.425 (2nd)

NET quadrants explained: The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 15 slowest teams, and is currently KenPom #11.

Bart Torvik offers some clarification in the comments here.
Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior."

Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
Effective Height "is an attempt to calculate minute-weighted height of the 4s and 5s. So it's basically the average height of the tallest 40% of minutes."

Average Height "includes all minutes, not just the bigs."
 
Based on the comparison table below, Louisville and Duke are fairly close in several statistical categories, like scoring margin, assists, turnovers, and 3-point percentage. But keep in mind that the Cards shoot a lot more threes: they average 34.6 attempts per game (5th in the nation) and make 12.2 of them (4th). The Blue Devils average 28.1 attempts and 9.9 makes (both 53rd). Most stats listed are courtesy of Sports Reference.

Let's look at Louisville's 3-point shooting a little more closely. Bart Torvik has a very interesting shooting stats table that, if you click over, should be sorted by the third to last column, which is the share of threes on the offensive end. This just means the percentage of total shots taken that are from beyond the arc, and the teams who emphasize threes the most are Louisville (54.6%), Florida State (53.8%), and Alabama (also 53.8%). For some context, only 17 Division I men's teams shoot more threes than twos, and Duke's share of threes is 47.2%, or 39th nationally. Having just played FSU, the Devils already have some idea of how Louisville's shot selection will go, though the Cardinals do not play nearly as fast a tempo as the Seminoles.

Speaking of Torvik, he sees Louisville as the favorite on their home floor, and predicts them to beat Duke by a score of 83-79.

TABLE 1
CategoryLouisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC)Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC)
Points Scored90.4 (18th nationally)87.3 (33rd)
Points Allowed69.1 (83rd)65.5 (28th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.org Stats)+21.3 (11th)+21.8 (9th)
Bench Points (NCAA.org Stats)22.6 (223rd)23.6 (193rd)
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.org Stats)7.4 (335th)14.4 (67th)
Total Rebounds42.4 (17th)41.4 (28th)
--- Offensive Rebounds13.3 (54th)12.6 (94th)
--- Defensive Rebounds29.1 (16th)28.8 (22nd)
--- Rebound Margin (NCAA.org Stats)+8.9 (25th)+10.5 (14th)
Assists18.5 (27th)18.3 (33rd)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.org Stats)1.61 (34th)1.58 (42nd)
Steals7.6 (129th)8.1 (95th)
Blocks3.7 (141st)4.6 (59th)
Turnovers11.5 (125th fewest)11.6 (132nd fewest)
--- Turnover Margin (NCAA.org Stats)-1.8 (106th)-1.9 (96th)
Personal Fouls20.0 (327th fewest)16.9 (120th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage47.1% (104th)49.8% (31st)
2-Point FG Percentage61.3% (19th)62.6% (9th)
3-Point FG Percentage35.3% (114th)35.4% (111th)
Free Throw Percentage77.5% (24th)71.6% (187th)

TABLE 2
CategoryLouisville (11-3, 1-1 ACC)Duke (13-1, 2-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.org Stats)#14 (NET Summary)#7 (NET Summary)
--- Strength of Schedule40th34th
--- Quad 12-34-1
--- Quad 22-02-0
--- Quad 31-02-0
--- Quad 46-05-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#12#9
--- Offensive Efficiency4th11th
--- Defensive Efficiency44th16th
--- Tempo69th179th
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#11 (T-Page)#12 (T-Page)
--- Experience2.172 (101st)0.884 (363rd)
--- Talent40.957 (65th)91.081 (1st)
--- Effective Height81.787 (23rd)81.524 (39th)
--- Average Height78.323 (44th)79.425 (2nd)
Interestingly, Louisville shot a ton of threes last year (20th nationally in 3p-rate at 47.8%), despite not making very many - only 32.8%, good for 224th. Meanwhile, like this year, their 2p% was elite at 56.8%. So either they should have taken more 2s, or arguably, their inefficient three-point barrages opened things up inside.

This year, their 3p% is a more respectable 35.3%, about the same as ours, so letting them jack up threes is a less viable strategy.
 
Both teams are ranked in the AP poll: Duke at #6 and Louisville at #16.

This week's AP poll has updated rankings: Duke still at #6, Louisville down to #20 after their loss to Stanford on Friday.

Duke moved from #5 to #6 (swapping places with Purdue) in today's Coaches Poll, while Louisville fell from #13 to #18.
 
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Here are some podcast previews.

Duke Basketball Roundup Podcast Bites #131 was presumably recorded before @blazindw and @JasonEvans reported above (post #15) that Mikel Brown Jr will not play on Tuesday.

"After a pair of wins against the bottom tier of the ACC, Duke faces a much different conference rival on Tuesday. The Blue Devils will face the team everyone says is the second best in the league, the Louisville Cardinals. One key question for this game is the health of superstar freshman PG Mikel Brown, Jr. But, regardless of whether he plays or not, Louisville presents some unique challenges with their high-powered, 3-point heavy offense. The Duke Basketball Roundup is here with all you need to know about how the Cards have played thus far and who they will be counting on as they battle Duke for ACC supremacy."


Talking Ball: "We're breaking down Duke basketball's big upcoming college basketball game against Louisville basketball."


Sleepers Media: "The Sleepers [Jordan Mann and Matt Hinton] preview the Louisville vs. Duke game!"

 
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