MBB: Duke 80, Stanford 50 (Saturday 1/17)

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brevity

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Oh, like I'll be able to sleep now.

The 6th-ranked Duke Blue Devils (16-1, 5-0 ACC) took care of business in Berkeley on Wednesday night, and next they'll visit the 7,000-seat Maples Pavilion, the home court of the Stanford Cardinal (14-4, 3-2 ACC). The game tips off Saturday at 3pm local time, or 6pm Eastern, to watch or stream on the ACC Network (streaming link, listen, live stats).

Stanford also won on Wednesday night, narrowly getting past UNC in a defensive slugfest (95-90: recap, box score, highlights, presser). The Cardinal are now 2-0 against the Tar Heels in conference play.

Ebuka Okorie established a school freshman scoring record with 36 points, fueling Stanford past No. 14/15 North Carolina 95-90 on Wednesday night at Maples Pavilion.

Okorie, who entered the game ranked eighth nationally in scoring, was once again the most dominant player on the floor. Producing his fourth 30-point outing over the last seven games, Okorie finished 12-20 from the field and 9-11 from the foul line while dishing out a season-high nine assists in 36 minutes. The 36 points are tied for 15th most in a game in program history.

Ryan Agarwal (7-11 FG) and Jeremy Dent-Smith (7-8 FG) both added 20 points, combining to make 13 three-pointers on 16 attempts and powering Stanford’s 16-28 performance from beyond the arc. Agarwal's mark was career-high, while Dent-Smith's total was a Division-I high in a Stanford uniform. The 16 made 3-pointers are tied for second-most in a single game in program history.




Head coach Kyle Smith: "That was a really great environment. It's great to see Maples so loud and passionate... we're selling these recruits on playing in the ACC. We're going to play teams like this... the guys want to match up and see what they can do against the best.

Maybe this will go viral: when I got to center court, I was trying to coach up the students on what we were chanting, and I went right to
Revenge of the Nerds: 'Nerds! Nerds! Nerds!' Aidan [redshirt sophomore post player Aidan Cammann] jumped in naturally. It was real easy for Aidan to jump in there with me, so we got that going, and it was fun. It's more fun to watch these guys. I've had my moments, but it's really neat to see these guys grow and have success."

Keep in mind that the Cardinal now have home wins over Louisville and UNC (but also have home losses to Seattle, UNLV, and Notre Dame). I'll have more to say about them later, but for now, discuss Saturday's game here.
 
Should be a good challenge. Stanford is 6-1 in Q1/Q2 games and playing well now, but also has three bad home losses. Kyle Smith is a good coach who I've been impressed with since he jumpstarted San Francisco's resurgence a decade ago.

I'm very interested to see what the defensive approach is against Okroie because in addition to all the scoring he had 9 assists last night as his teammates shot 13-for-23 from 3.
 
Should be a good challenge. Stanford is 6-1 in Q1/Q2 games and playing well now, but also has three bad home losses. Kyle Smith is a good coach who I've been impressed with since he jumpstarted San Francisco's resurgence a decade ago.

I'm very interested to see what the defensive approach is against Okroie because in addition to all the scoring he had 9 assists last night as his teammates shot 13-for-23 from 3.
We may have to let him have his 35 and keep the other guys in check.
 
The example of this strategy I always remember is the 75-67 win over Indiana in November 2005. Marco Killingsworth scored 34 points, while the remainder of Hoosiers scored 33. Strategy effective.

That game drove me crazy. Shelden simply couldn't stop the Indiana center from backing him in. Coach K chose to give no help. Obviously it worked.
 
Should be a good challenge. Stanford is 6-1 in Q1/Q2 games and playing well now, but also has three bad home losses. Kyle Smith is a good coach who I've been impressed with since he jumpstarted San Francisco's resurgence a decade ago.

I'm very interested to see what the defensive approach is against Okroie because in addition to all the scoring he had 9 assists last night as his teammates shot 13-for-23 from 3.
Caught the end of Stanford's win over the heels, watching them go from 3 down to up 5. Okorie was very impressive, overcoming a cramping issue to get back into the game and cooly knocking down FTs at the end.

His 36 points and 9 assists indeed impressive but wonder how much this highlights the the heels' poor backcourt play, truly their Achilles heel so far this season.
 
The example of this strategy I always remember is the 75-67 win over Indiana in November 2005. Marco Killingsworth scored 34 points, while the remainder of Hoosiers scored 33. Strategy effective.
Loyola(MD) under former Sweaty assistant Billy Hahn used the opposite strategy with Stephen Curry's Davidson team. Curry went 0/3 for 0 points. Final score: Davidson 78, Loyola 48.

While I think his current love of UVA is more than suspect, I think Torvik's assessment of this game at Duke -5.5 as fair. Smith is a very underrated coach for what he did as Wazzu before the Pac-12 imploded and forced his move to the Farm. Cal isn't a good offensive team, and Stanford has such an extreme outlier with the 47-40 ND game right now that it's underrating their offense.

Maples used to be a Sanitation Grade B version of Cameron under its peak during Montgomery. I'm not sure what the mix will be on Saturday.
 
I'll have more to say about them later...

One obscure way you can measure your DBR experience this season is to ask yourself the question, "When did I finally become aware of Stanford's freshman guard Ebuka Okorie, after months of @brevity constantly nagging me about him?" I must admit, when I first mentioned him in the ACC section of my 2025 MBB Recruiting Summary, even I wasn't paying too much attention. Okorie, who committed to Stanford in November 2024 and signed with them in April 2025, was the highest rated of their incoming freshmen, but outside everyone's top 100. (He was not listed by ESPN, and was ranked #109 by On3 and #116 by 247 Sports.)

Those rankings are not bad at all, but if you consider that he's now the second highest scoring freshman in the country (slightly behind BYU's AJ Dybantsa but just ahead of Duke's Cameron Boozer), it's fair to conclude that last year's scouting evaluations of Okorie missed the mark. He's an example of how Stanford, led by second-year head coach and "nerd ball" aficionado Kyle Smith, is succeeding despite making highly unheralded (and possibly low-budget) additions. This is like the college hoops version of the Moneyball-era Oakland A's, or the Curt Cignetti revolution happening right now with Indiana football.

It's not just Okorie. To add to a roster with 9 returning scholarship players, Coach Smith also brought in a pair of European freshmen, Oskar Giltay and Kristers Skrinda, plus two incoming grad transfers, Division II player Jeremy Dent-Smith and Division III player AJ Rohosy. (I wasn't the only one who openly wondered in the offseason whether Duke or Stanford seemed to care about the portal less.) As it turns out, four of these newcomers -- all except the injured Skrinda -- have quickly developed to become starters or rotation players on a decent ACC team with tournament aspirations.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-2 freshman guard Ebuka Okorie #1 (22.9 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.5 stl)
6-8 senior forward Chisom Okpara #10 (13.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.2 ast, 1.1 stl)
6-1 senior guard Benny Gealer #5 (10.4 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.7 stl)
6-6 redshirt junior guard Ryan Agarwal #11 (7.1 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-10 freshman post Oskar Giltay #15 (4.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 0.4 ast, 1.2 blk)

KEY RESERVES

6-9 grad forward AJ Rohosy #4 (7.6 pts, 5.3 reb, 0.6 ast)
6-1 grad guard Jeremy Dent-Smith #25 (7.3 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.9 ast)
6-10 redshirt sophomore post Aidan Cammann #52 (5.0 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.0 stl)
6-7 redshirt sophomore forward Cameron Grant #20 (2.4 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-8 sophomore forward Donavin Young #2 (2.2 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.3 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

6-7 sophomore forward Evan Stinson #33 (1.8 pts, 0.5 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-7 redshirt sophomore forward Jaylen Thompson #24 (0.3 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-2 sophomore guard Ethan Kitch #13 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)

OTHER/INJURED

6-10 freshman forward Kristers Skrinda #12 (0.8 pts, 1.6 reb, 0.1 ast) -- undisclosed injury
6-11 sophomore post Tallis Toure #3 (0.0 pts, 1.0 reb, 0.0 ast) -- lower body injury
6-3 sophomore guard Anthony Batson Jr #0 -- voluntary redshirt; link
6-3 freshman guard Myles Jones #6 -- reclassified from 2026; voluntary redshirt; link

The Cardinal returned 52 percent of the minutes played last season, but only 37.4 percent of the points scored. That suggests, at least to me, that the 9 returners form a pretty solid supporting cast in need of star power, much like they had with Maxime Raynaud, Jaylen Blakes, and Oziyah Sellers. And now they have Okorie.

I'm including Chisom Okpara as a probable starter, even though he missed Wednesday night's win over UNC with a lower body injury. He's considered day-to-day. Even though he's the third Okpara that Duke has faced this season, he apparently is not related to brothers Felix Okpara (Tennessee) and Kennedy Okpara (Lipscomb).

Let's compare team stats for Stanford and Duke in the table below, with the help of Sports Reference and other sports references. Bart Torvik predicts Duke to go 2-0 along the West Coast, winning 77-72 on Saturday.

TABLE 1
CategoryStanford (14-4, 3-2 ACC)Duke (16-1, 5-0 ACC)
Points Scored77.9 (158th nationally)85.8 (38th)
Points Allowed71.7 (132nd)65.9 (24th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.org Stats)+6.2 (143rd+19.9 (9th)
Bench Points (NCAA.org Stats)17.7 (306th)22.7 (207th)
Fastbreak Points (NCAA.org Stats)11.4 (164th)12.5 (119th)
Total Rebounds34.7 (255th)40.3 (40th)
--- Offensive Rebounds11.6 (157th)12.2 (109th)
--- Defensive Rebounds23.1 (300th)28.1 (26th)
--- Rebound Margin (NCAA.org Stats)+2.2 (172nd)+9.2 (18th)
Assists12.4 (302nd)17.6 (34th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.org Stats)1.14 (219th)1.52 (51st)
Steals8.2 (75th)8.3 (71nd)
Blocks3.3 (203rd)4.2 (79th)
Turnovers10.9 (91st fewest)11.6 (99th fewest)
--- Turnover Margin (NCAA.org Stats)-3.1 (47th)-2.2 (76th)
Personal Fouls17.7 (190th fewest)16.6 (99th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage43.5% (274th)49.5% (28th)
2-Point FG Percentage49.9% (288th)62.9% (6th)
3-Point FG Percentage35.0% (125th)34.6% (146th)
Free Throw Percentage72.4% (167th)70.8% (227th)

TABLE 2
CategoryStanford (14-4, 3-2 ACC)Duke (16-1, 5-0 ACC)
NET Ranking (NCAA.org Stats)#65 (NET Summary)#3 (NET Summary)
--- Strength of Schedule91st5th
--- Quad 14-17-1
--- Quad 22-12-0
--- Quad 33-11-0
--- Quad 45-16-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy)#69#7
--- Offensive Efficiency86th12th
--- Defensive Efficiency64th7th
--- Tempo170th179th
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#63 (T-Page)#15 (T-Page)
--- Experience1.842 (215th)0.885 (363rd)
--- Talent33.394 (80th)91.229 (1st)
--- Effective Height81.088 (84th)81.514 (40th)
--- Average Height77.409 (168th)79.422 (2nd)

NET quadrants explained: The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 10 slowest teams, and is currently KenPom #8.

Bart Torvik offers some clarification in the comments here.
Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior."

Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
Effective Height "is an attempt to calculate minute-weighted height of the 4s and 5s. So it's basically the average height of the tallest 40% of minutes."

Average Height "includes all minutes, not just the bigs."
 
The example of this strategy I always remember is the 75-67 win over Indiana in November 2005. Marco Killingsworth scored 34 points, while the remainder of Hoosiers scored 33. Strategy effective.

Looked up Killingsworth. I didn't think I ever seen a player that change teams so much from high school to end of his career. His pro career he played at a different team every year. 3 high schools, 2 colleges, 18 professional teams (in 13 seasons)
 
Rohosy and Camman were the primary big guys at the beginning of the season. They would start and then the coach would randomly sub in one of the other big white guys until one of them made an impact and then that guy would get the majority of time the rest of that game.
Recently Giltay has been getting the starts, but Rohosy and Cammann got the most time against the cheats even though Giltay started.

I only watched the end of the cheats game that spilled over into our timeslot when I watched it after getting home from the game so I don't know if they fixed any of the things I have seen them doing the last few games. One of their biggest weaknesses I had observed was ineffective pick and roll, especially involving Giltay. He would come up to set the pick for Okorie, which only ended up bringing the big defender up to double team Okorie while Giltay would drift off directly into another defender instead of open space. In his defense, Okorie never looked to pass it to him on the roll anyway.
 
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