Jon Scheyer - Coach of the Year race

This is a fun debate.

I am of the belief that performance THIS SEASON is what matters in the COY discussion. It would be silly to say Jon had a good year last year because he got Flagg and Maluach and others to commit at that time when they had not even stepped foot on a college basketball court yet.

But, he should get credit in this year for the performance of the players he brought in last year. The timing of when he formed the roster is less important than the play of the roster in this season. The bottom line to me is that one should not just automatically discount a coach who comes into a season with a stacked roster because some credit should be given to the coach for putting together the stacked roster in the first place.

And, to be clear, I am not saying the coach who is #1 at the end of the year is the automatic COY winner. To me, the award is about looking objectively at outperforming expectations (which can happen for even the top teams in the rankings), strategy and success in key moments, and how a team grew over the course of the season. Weigh all that stuff and then decide who did the best with what they were given.

As the good old Potter Stewart would say, it is hard to exactly define what COY is but we know a COY when we see one. And I feel like I am seeing one this year in Durham much more than I have in the past.
 
This is a fun debate.

I am of the belief that performance THIS SEASON is what matters in the COY discussion. It would be silly to say Jon had a good year last year because he got Flagg and Maluach and others to commit at that time when they had not even stepped foot on a college basketball court yet.

But, he should get credit in this year for the performance of the players he brought in last year. The timing of when he formed the roster is less important than the play of the roster in this season. The bottom line to me is that one should not just automatically discount a coach who comes into a season with a stacked roster because some credit should be given to the coach for putting together the stacked roster in the first place.

And, to be clear, I am not saying the coach who is #1 at the end of the year is the automatic COY winner. To me, the award is about looking objectively at outperforming expectations (which can happen for even the top teams in the rankings), strategy and success in key moments, and how a team grew over the course of the season. Weigh all that stuff and then decide who did the best with what they were given.

As the good old Potter Stewart would say, it is hard to exactly define what COY is but we know a COY when we see one. And I feel like I am seeing one this year in Durham much more than I have in the past.
Jon has done an excellent job coaching Cooper Flagg. He has let him grow into such a great player in 17 games. Coach K in early years had 4.years. And has defined roles so well. He deserves the coach of the year. And this is coming from someone who wasn't his biggest fan. I was wrong. Not the first time.
 
Simply using the AP poll, Izzo’s Michigan State team was not in the top 25 and is now #8. Golden has Florida at #5 from #21, Pope has Kentucky at #9 from #23 with completely new roster and in his first season. Auburn is up from #11 to 1. I’m probably missing others.

Scheyer is doing a great job but Duke is only up from #7 to #2 playing in a weak ACC. I think Jon is definitely top 10 but I don’t see him as a runaway top 2 guy right now.
It won’t be Golden.
 
If the season ended today, Jon Scheyer's 2025 Duke Blue Devils would have the 4th highest adjusted efficiency margin in the 29-year history of KenPom's data. The 2015 Kentucky Wildcats are the last team to be this efficient.

Take whatever other facts or stats or judgments you want and shove it. IMO.

- Chillin
 
If the season ended today, Jon Scheyer's 2025 Duke Blue Devils would have the 4th highest adjusted efficiency margin in the 29-year history of KenPom's data. The 2015 Kentucky Wildcats are the last team to be this efficient.

Take whatever other facts or stats or judgments you want and shove it. IMO.

- Chillin
And the team, with 4.5 freshmen in its rotation, is still improving.
 
I just want to add that I think most "awards" are usually flawed, since they rely on humans and human whims. "Best", "Most Valuable", xxx "of the Year", etc. are subjective. There's not really a way to quantify them. And if it were attempted, people would just argue about the equation putting all the stats together. In the end, writers are going to vote however the hell they are going to vote. Sometimes they get things absolutely right, sometimes arguably right, sometimes a vote comes out of nowhere, and sometimes things are egregiously wrong (as a current aside, who DIDN'T vote for Ichiro to be in the Baseball HOF?). But this is what we, the public, get when the award voting is subjective (again as an aside, they should make all writer votes public, no matter what sport).

In the end, all I really care about are banners. One can howl at the moon or spit into the wind all they want about how POY, COY, Sixth Man OY, Cy Young, Lady Bing, etc. should be voted upon. And for any given deserving individual's sake, I hope they get what I think is deserved. But in the end, they may not, for whatever reason. Just get the banners (worthy banners, unlike <ahem> NIT banners...).

9F
 
And the team, with 4.5 freshmen in its rotation, is still improving.
There's plenty of time for things to change. But the point is, and to be clear you aren't refuting, this team to this point is doing special things.

Tmrw is a big game, projected as our 4th toughest game remaining in the regular season. If we come out of Wake with a strong showing, it's time to start to (or at least openly) acknowledge we are having an exceptional year.

I give Scheyer a lot of credit. I thought he had a spotty coaching start to the year. But he has pulled this team together. Let's beat the Deacs tmrw and start banging the drum for COY!

- Chillin
 
There's plenty of time for things to change. But the point is, and to be clear you aren't refuting, this team to this point is doing special things.

Tmrw is a big game, projected as our 4th toughest game remaining in the regular season. If we come out of Wake with a strong showing, it's time to start to (or at least openly) acknowledge we are having an exceptional year.

I give Scheyer a lot of credit. I thought he had a spotty coaching start to the year. But he has pulled this team together. Let's beat the Deacs tmrw and start banging the drum for COY!

- Chillin
We are definitely having a special year. I just don't think we've hit our ceiling yet. Jon said the same thing in one of his QandAs this past week.
 
I can see so easily why Coach K chose Scheyer. He's a hard worker, brilliant, a classy guy and clearly his own man (he has not tried to replicate everything Coach K did). I am proud to have him as our coach.
I agree. Jon was the right man for the job at the time even though he had no head coaching experience. My thought process was K isn't going away for at least 5yrs. No coach outside of the Duke family will want to coach under his looming shadow. Jon would welcome it and K would give Jon plenty of space to be his own man. I feel like this year Jon has really grown as a HC and I think he's doing great!

Unfortunately, when it comes to COY awards, K/Duke are a victim of their own success. I think Jon will also fall into that same stigma.
I'm personally not saying Jon shouldn't win or doesn't deserve it. It's just a lot harder to do so in the Duke HC'ing seat.
 
I agree. Jon was the right man for the job at the time even though he had no head coaching experience. My thought process was K isn't going away for at least 5yrs. No coach outside of the Duke family will want to coach under his looming shadow. Jon would welcome it and K would give Jon plenty of space to be his own man. I feel like this year Jon has really grown as a HC and I think he's doing great!

Unfortunately, when it comes to COY awards, K/Duke are a victim of their own success. I think Jon will also fall into that same stigma.
I'm personally not saying Jon shouldn't win or doesn't deserve it. It's just a lot harder to do so in the Duke HC'ing seat.
Considering Coach K won a grand total of 0 (ZERO) AP National COY awards, the chances of Jon winning one is very, very low.
K didn’t win it as Duke dramatically ascended (1986) nor at any time when we were clearly top of the world (1992, 1999, etc.).

The Duke haters in the media will not allow it.
 
This is summed up in Borzello and Medcalf's ESPN article in which they rank the top 15 current candidates for COY and describe the different buckets each fall into (those who exceed expectations, those who do the most with the least, and those who mold championship/the best teams). They currently have Pearl and Scheyer neck-and-neck at #1 and #2.

Also—which COY award, exactly, are we talkin' 'bout here? Naismith (which Dean Smith won once, while K has 3 and Bennett 2)? AP? Jim Phelan? My guess is that coaches will take into consideration all three of the 'buckets' outlined in the article, given they understand all of the different threads (recruiting, talent retention and development, nutrition, training, preparation, film study, in-game adjustments, etc.) that have to be woven together in order to achieve a winning season. Journalists perhaps less so, but then again I've linked an article in which two journalists describe and discuss prominent candidates from each of these categories.

Right now, it feels like Kelsey and Scheyer are ahead of the competition for ACC COY and I would buy arguments for handing either of them the award if the season ended today. That said, Brownell and Forbes are certainly still in the discussion. At the end of the day, these are highly subjective awards, and they always stoke controversy among some fanbase or another. Sure, I guess they're nice to put on one's shelf (and it's nice when they trigger a contractual bonus), but what everyone really wants to win is that national championship trophy.

EDIT (echoing what @kako said above)
 
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