Horse Racing 2025

DevilHorse said:
Bonus weekend race on Sunday. It's the Matt Winn stakes for 3YOs:
[ URL above; Sunday May 8, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 8; PPs ]
The Matt Winn stakes is relatively new. It is a place for Triple Crown Trail also rans to establish some credentials and launch into the 3YO races later in the year. The top horses here could attempt the A-circuit races like the Haskell and Jim Dandy, or they can go to races like the Ohio Derby. Lots of money to be had on either circuit.
Final Gambit, 4th in this year's KYD, will take a shot here. The early speed might be provided by East Avenue; if this horse gets loose on the lead, he might not get caught. Coal Battle and Burnham Square had some traffic problems in the KYD and will attempt to re-establish themselves here. Chunk Of Gold also has some ability. Remembering that the KYD was on a sloppy track, there might be some betting overlays here.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
I think this is a much tougher race to handicap than the Belmont. At this point I’m a believer in Journalism winning the Belmont. In the Matt Win I could make a good argument for the four main horses you mention. Also Gaming is cross entered at Churchill and Santa Anita. His last work was June 1 at Churchill. Not sure where he runs but the Churchill purse is $400,000 vs $100,000 at Santa Anita. Gaming has only been out of the money 1 time. I wouldn’t bet him, but if he runs his best race he could also win. Do we really handicap a race like this or just make a guess? I put East Avenue in the same place a Gaming. His best race could win but he hasn’t been as good a three year old as his two year old self. So leaning toward Burnham Square or Final Gambit. Maybe an exacta.
 
DevilHorse said:
I don't think fillies mature faster than colts. I think that is a human thing more than a horse thing. Fillies are smaller; as horses get older, this difference increases. On rare occasions you'll get a filly that is large and can handle the trips. More often you have a filly that can race against the colts on the turf; that's probably because the races tend to dawdle along and then sprint to the line. So I think that in a sprint a filly might be competitive with a colt, but as the races get longer.. not so much. Trainers also have to pay attention to the filly hormones, especially when racing against the boys; there are legal drugs to regulate a filly's cycle; I don't know how much of an effect this has in 2YOs.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Acacia Courtney Clement just said fillies mature mentally and physically a bit earlier. Who am I to disagree.
Mentally mature is more important I think.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Acacia Courtney Clement just said fillies mature mentally and physically a bit earlier. Who am I to disagree.
Mentally mature is more important I think.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Wow, the filly Mythical just beat the boys in the Tremont. Speed figures didn't lie. Blinging It Back showed not much of a kick, but finished 2nd. The filly and the 4 horse crashed into each other at the start too. Nice race for Mythical.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Thursday at Saratoga brings us the first big 2YO colt race of the year; the Tremont.
[ URL above; Thursday June 5, 2025; Saratoga - Race 2; PPs ]
It is an early race, but some good ones have won this race: Henny Hughes (good sprinter, sire of Beholder), More Than Ready, Alydar, Bold Forbes, Honest Pleasure. This year, Mythical looks like a lukewarm favorite with Romeo as a contender too. These horses don't even know what they're doing yet, so any of them could win. Do you think that if Romeo gets off to a miserable start the race caller will say, "Wherefore art thou Romeo!" (sorry).

If you want to handicap the Belmont Stakes, here is a pointer to the PPs:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
8 entrants!

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

The filly Mythical prevailed in the Tremont:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1930668347407933545
She was the favorite (having superior speed figures). She was described as a small filly. Suggests that she might not hold up to the rigors of a long campaign or classic race lengths. But she is the king/queen of the hill today.

I missed the Astoria, which is the 2YO filly analog of the Tremont.
Sassy C W was a convincing winner:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1930685884375949461
If you're wondering about Mythical vs. Sassy C W, the Tremont was 2.5 seconds faster. Sassy C W is sired by Yaupon, who is a young sire and was a sprinter; siring a sprinter is not unusual here.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
On Friday is the Acorn for 3YOFs:
[ URL above; Friday June, 6, 2025; Saratoga - Race 11; PPs ]
The great Good Cheer will likely be overbet, and is the likely winner. But there are other good fillies in here. It is likely that there will be water in the track, but GC does well on that surface. Shred the Gnar is improving and La Cara is good. Look Forward can stay better with Rispoli.

Larry
DevilHorse
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La Cara won the Acorn on a sloppy track:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931109860252479692
Undefeated Good Cheer did NOT like the going and was never a factor; the graveyard of champions moniker still holds. Jockey Dylan Davis won 2 Grade I's yesterday; perhaps he is taking a step up in ability. Shred the Gnar was scratched because her trainer said she wasn't herself yesterday morning. We once had a horse scratch because the trainer thought he heard a cough (indicating impending fever), while at the track for a stakes race. We immediately scratched and forfeited the stakes payment. The horse never missed a beat in her health over the next week. Better safe than sorry with these wonderful animals.

BTW, I saw a weather report suggesting that the weather will clear up mid-day at Saratoga. With some luck we'll have no worse than a good track for the Belmont.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Some exciting races this Saturday at Saratoga:

Race 7 is the True North:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 7; PPs ]
Mullikan looked a little short in his last race at 7f, but now he has 1 race under his belt and pulls back to 6.5f. Nakatomi is back from Saudi Arabia; I've often observed that horses making the trip back to North America from SA take some time to adjust back. Book'em Danno re-appears. He likes 7f, but perhaps he'll find 6.5f more to his liking. He finished within a head of the best sprinters last out.

Race 8 is the Metropolitan Mile:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 8; PPs ]
Guess how long this race is? Great race though; White Abarrio vs. Fierceness. If Fierceness feels good, he wins. White Abarrio has had a great campaign, but his competition is a bit more suspect, and I suspect he prefers going longer than a mile.

Race 11 is the Woody Stephens for 3YO Sprinters:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 11; PPs ]
Woody Stephens won 5 Belmonts in a row as a trainer; great guy and NY denizen. Glad he is has this race named after him.
Citizen Bull was a buzz horse at 2 and earlier this year, but he performed miserably in the KYD; perhaps he didn't like the slop. But he is back sprinting and might be a favorite. Chancer McPatrick was a top 2YO, but when the races got longer.. he didn't; he is back sprinting now, so we'll see how he does. Colloquial has run some great races; he has ability and now a little experience; expect him to hit the board. Neoequos has an awful name for a race caller, and was not placed in races he could win. Perhaps now he won't fail if he's too close to the pace.

Race 12 is the Manhattan on the turf:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 12; PPs ]
Of course, the only turf in Manhattan is in Central Park (or on top of high rises) but I digress.
Deterministic and Spirit of St Louis look like the class of the field; Tucson is moving way up in class.

Race 13 is the big race, the Belmont:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
This is billed as Sovereignty vs. Journalism. Unlike the Aristides last week, these two horses are not likely to get caught up in a speed duel upfront. Both like to stay mid-pack and come from behind with good success. If there is rain, they both like that too. Rodriguez and Crudo are more likely to be 1/2 around the first turn; we will have pace for the come from behind crowd. Baeza prefers to stalk, but Journalism is better than him. With an 8 horse field, and horses with different styles, no one should get boxed. The big question is whether Sovereignty's 5 weeks off will trump Journalism's 3 weeks off. If Journalism doesn't find a way to get stuck behind horses, he will win. Rodriguez has had a lot of problems since his good showing in the Santa Anita Derby; that might be too well rested. Journalism, Sovereignty, Crudo would be my top 3.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

The Saratoga grounds crew did an amazing job preparing the track for the Belmont. They sealed the track before it rained and broke it open to excellent results. I thought it looked a little clumpy but much improved after all the rain the track took from Friday afternoon on. Kudos to them.

Book'em Danno showed that he is one gritty horse, winning the True North:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931442586171867445
Not sure, but this looked like a wetfast track. Mullikan was second.

The Metropolitan Mile was won by a raging Raging Torrent:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931447971746619530
Raging Torrent beat a tiring Fierceness. White Abarrio finished 4th and never threatened. Raging Torrent is by the young sire Maximus Mischief.

The Woody Stephens heralded the return of Patch Adams as a contender on the national scene:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931477121202802782
Madakat Road was a creditable second. Highly thought of Citizen Bull and Chancer McPatrick might be showing up in lesser stakes races at a track near you. The track was definitely improving at this point.

The Manhattan and the Jaipur would have been taken off the turf, but will be run today (Sunday). How much rain did the track get yesterday? 4 other races are off the turf on Sunday too.

Sovereignty ran a perfect race to catch Journalism in mid-stretch in the Belmont:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931497780058472595
Journalism looked a bit tired in the stretch. Sovereignty was stalking Journalism (not the lead) and was able to outfinish him. Perhaps not as dramatic as we would have liked, but it was definitive. The final time of 2:00.4 was very good. Word on the street is that Sovereignty received a big 109 Beyer.

The Into Mischief line continues to show strength with Sovereignty and Raging Torrent's victories today.

And now onto the summer Travers trail.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
The Saratoga grounds crew did an amazing job preparing the track for the Belmont. They sealed the track before it rained and broke it open to excellent results. I thought it looked a little clumpy but much improved after all the rain the track took from Friday afternoon on. Kudos to them.

Book'em Danno showed that he is one gritty horse, winning the True North:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931442586171867445
Not sure, but this looked like a wetfast track. Mullikan was second.

The Metropolitan Mile was won by a raging Raging Torrent:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931447971746619530
Raging Torrent beat a tiring Fierceness. White Abarrio finished 4th and never threatened. Raging Torrent is by the young sire Maximus Mischief.

The Woody Stephens heralded the return of Patch Adams as a contender on the national scene:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931477121202802782
Madakat Road was a creditable second. Highly thought of Citizen Bull and Chancer McPatrick might be showing up in lesser stakes races at a track near you. The track was definitely improving at this point.

The Manhattan and the Jaipur would have been taken off the turf, but will be run today (Sunday). How much rain did the track get yesterday? 4 other races are off the turf on Sunday too.

Sovereignty ran a perfect race to catch Journalism in mid-stretch in the Belmont:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931497780058472595
Journalism looked a bit tired in the stretch. Sovereignty was stalking Journalism (not the lead) and was able to outfinish him. Perhaps not as dramatic as we would have liked, but it was definitive. The final time of 2:00.4 was very good. Word on the street is that Sovereignty received a big 109 Beyer.

The Into Mischief line continues to show strength with Sovereignty and Raging Torrent's victories today.

And now onto the summer Travers trail.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Looking forward to a Sovereignty/Journalism rematch in the Travers. I took the easy way out and boxed the two in an exacta. My heart was with Journalism but watching Churchill Downs races earlier in the day Caton Bredar was convincing that Sovereignty had already beaten Journalism in the Derby and with five weeks between races would be the winner.

I didn’t realize that Belmont’s new facility wouldn’t be finished in time for next year’s race. I love Saratoga and plan to make the pilgrimage maybe this summer, but the race itself needs to be 1 1/2 miles. Still I think the same horses would have finished first and second.

It was also nice to see a horse I picked in a Derby future pool in January, Patch Adams, has found his niche. When I bet him he was second favorite but went off the favorite by post time.

I didn’t bet it but was shocked Fierceness lost. He looked unbeatable in Louisville on Derby Day.
 
DevilHorse said:
The Saratoga grounds crew did an amazing job preparing the track for the Belmont. They sealed the track before it rained and broke it open to excellent results. I thought it looked a little clumpy but much improved after all the rain the track took from Friday afternoon on. Kudos to them.

Book'em Danno showed that he is one gritty horse, winning the True North:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931442586171867445
Not sure, but this looked like a wetfast track. Mullikan was second.

The Metropolitan Mile was won by a raging Raging Torrent:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931447971746619530
Raging Torrent beat a tiring Fierceness. White Abarrio finished 4th and never threatened. Raging Torrent is by the young sire Maximus Mischief.

The Woody Stephens heralded the return of Patch Adams as a contender on the national scene:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931477121202802782
Madakat Road was a creditable second. Highly thought of Citizen Bull and Chancer McPatrick might be showing up in lesser stakes races at a track near you. The track was definitely improving at this point.

The Manhattan and the Jaipur would have been taken off the turf, but will be run today (Sunday). How much rain did the track get yesterday? 4 other races are off the turf on Sunday too.

Sovereignty ran a perfect race to catch Journalism in mid-stretch in the Belmont:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931497780058472595
Journalism looked a bit tired in the stretch. Sovereignty was stalking Journalism (not the lead) and was able to outfinish him. Perhaps not as dramatic as we would have liked, but it was definitive. The final time of 2:00.4 was very good. Word on the street is that Sovereignty received a big 109 Beyer.

The Into Mischief line continues to show strength with Sovereignty and Raging Torrent's victories today.

And now onto the summer Travers trail.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Beyers:
102 - Book'em Danno
106 - Raging Torrent
99 - Patch Adams
109 - Sovereign

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Bonus weekend race on Sunday. It's the Matt Winn stakes for 3YOs:
[ URL above; Sunday May 8, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 8; PPs ]
The Matt Winn stakes is relatively new. It is a place for Triple Crown Trail also rans to establish some credentials and launch into the 3YO races later in the year. The top horses here could attempt the A-circuit races like the Haskell and Jim Dandy, or they can go to races like the Ohio Derby. Lots of money to be had on either circuit.
Final Gambit, 4th in this year's KYD, will take a shot here. The early speed might be provided by East Avenue; if this horse gets loose on the lead, he might not get caught. Coal Battle and Burnham Square had some traffic problems in the KYD and will attempt to re-establish themselves here. Chunk Of Gold also has some ability. Remembering that the KYD was on a sloppy track, there might be some betting overlays here.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

The Matt Winn Stakes turned out to be pretty good. This race was won by TDMMDI fave East Avenue:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931811213857403200
East Avenue showed a lot of grit. He was pressed most of the way by the very good Coal Battle. Not sure if Burnham Square's race wasn't hampered by being seemingly boxed for part of the stretch. More race riding by Luis Saez on East Avenue. We'll see if East Avenue moves up in class or decides to stay on the second Tier stakes circuit. There was a bigger field for the Matt Winn, but a lot scratches. Oddly, the top 4 betting interests didn't scratch.

The $1M Manhattan was run at Saratoga yesterday. The race was won by Deterministic. This represented the first Grade I win for Miguel Clement whose father Cristophe died just over a week ago. There is a lot of affection for the Clement family and there were few dry eyes in the house.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1931854941678702839
I believe that this was also the first Grade I win for Kendrick Carmouche. Kendrick is one of the few African American jockeys to make a dent in the upper echelon of horse racing. I've known about Kendrick for about 10 years as he used to race at PARX and was the preferred rider on some of my brother's horses (mostly cheap stuff).

All of the top horses from the Belmont seem to have come out of the race in great shape. Sovereignty's team is keeping him at Saratoga with eyes on the Jim Dandy and Travers. Journalism is going back to California (where his trainer McCarthy is based) for a couple of weeks off, and planning for the future. The Haskell, Jim Dandy, Travers, and Pennsylvania Derby have all been mentioned. The connections of Baeza were disappointed that their horse didn't do better. Tappen Street, the last horse to beat Sovereignty (in the Florida Derby) is recovering nicely from a leg fracture; the horse is on track for a possible start before the end of the year.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
In the Belmont I had a net loss of $50 in wagers despite hitting the super and tri, lesson learned. Now I have to figure out what combination of odds makes it worthwhile to do some of my exotics.
 
duketaylor said:
In the Belmont I had a net loss of $50 in wagers despite hitting the super and tri, lesson learned. Now I have to figure out what combination of odds makes it worthwhile to do some of my exotics.
Click to expand...
This one of the things I love about betting the ponies, it’s not enough to just pick good horses the second challenge is how to bet them. Currently I am on a kick of betting doubles the entire race card. If you can string together a few races you can make money.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
This one of the things I love about betting the ponies, it’s not enough to just pick good horses the second challenge is how to bet them. Currently I am on a kick of betting doubles the entire race card. If you can string together a few races you can make money.
Click to expand...
Betting Books ("How To Win At The ... ) always have a section on money management.

I can't figure out why the Quinella isn't more readily available. I'd prefer that to the Exacta Box.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Anybody notice the Murray St. Logo?
1749482557178.png
Good Luck to the Devils in their winner take all game at Jack Coombs Stadium against the Murray St. Racers.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Not much going on this weekend, but there is one name that caught my eye.

Immersive will make her seasonal debut as a 3YO in a non-stakes race on Saturday
[ URL above; Saturday June 14, 2025; Churchill Downs - Race 5; PPs ]
Perhaps you've forgotten that Immersive won the BC Juvenile last year. She is undefeated. Her workouts have been unspectacular, but she is. She'll be challenged by a couple of fillies that finished well off 1st in the KY Oaks this year, but are definitely stakes caliber. I'd bet the Immersive/Anna's Promise exacta.

On the Haskell trail, Monmouth is having their Haskell Day preview which bring us the Pegasus for 3YOs:
[ URL above; Saturday June 14, 2025; Monmouth Park - Race 8; PPs ]
Nobody should confuse this race with the Pegasus World Cup, run in January at Gulfstream Park. But Flavian Prat and John Velazquez are visiting the Jersey Shore for some reason. Their mounts are Garamound and Valentinian. Kentucky Outlaw likes the track and the distance. I'll go with a Kentucky Outlaw and Garamound exacta (for kicks).

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Not much going on this weekend, but there is one name that caught my eye.

Immersive will make her seasonal debut as a 3YO in a non-stakes race on Saturday
[ URL above; Saturday June 14, 2025; Churchill Downs - Race 5; PPs ]
Perhaps you've forgotten that Immersive won the BC Juvenile last year. She is undefeated. Her workouts have been unspectacular, but she is. She'll be challenged by a couple of fillies that finished well off 1st in the KY Oaks this year, but are definitely stakes caliber. I'd bet the Immersive/Anna's Promise exacta.

On the Haskell trail, Monmouth is having their Haskell Day preview which bring us the Pegasus for 3YOs:
[ URL above; Saturday June 14, 2025; Monmouth Park - Race 8; PPs ]
Nobody should confuse this race with the Pegasus World Cup, run in January at Gulfstream Park. But Flavian Prat and John Velazquez are visiting the Jersey Shore for some reason. Their mounts are Garamound and Valentinian. Kentucky Outlaw likes the track and the distance. I'll go with a Kentucky Outlaw and Garamound exacta (for kicks).

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

Take Charge Milady took down Immersive in her return race, the Monomoy Girl:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1933960644266516745
Immersive was valient in defeat and will be better next time out. Take Charge Milady had some hiccups in the spring because of hooves with quarter cracks; the equivalent of broken toe nails for us.


A new contender for the Haskell has emerged from the Pegasus at Monmouth:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1933979471809528164
Bracket Buster looked really good winning the Pegasus; but is he just a wet track kinda horse? Who's to say that the Haskell won't be run on a similar off track.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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Royal Ascot races this week. There will be a half dozen US horses over there trying to be come world famous.
This begs the question, what is a US horse? Is it one with american breeding or owned by a US owner? Who knows or cares at this point?
Here is a partial list of US owned horses:

PPs should be available here:

Free International Past Performances

www.hollywoodraces.com www.hollywoodraces.com
Look for "UK - Ascot" on any particular day.

Races will be on TVG.

I predict that the first horse to cross the finish line will be the one toting King Charles III across the line (love those buggies).

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Oh no. Let the speculation begin. The Prince of Wales was in the lead cart at Royal Ascot today, with his father and step-mother, but Kate Middleton was conspicuously absent.

Great fascinators!
In the Queen Mary Stakes, a familiar name finished 3rd. Lennilu, the 2YO filly by surprising sire Leinster. First time on grass too. I'm wondering if she will be a sprinter type. She is a gorgeous grey.

This weekend is the Ohio Derby:

Loading…

www.brisnet.com
[ URL above; June 21, 2025; Thistledown - Race 12; PPs ]
Chunk Of Gold, who finished 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, then didn't fire in the KYD as many horses don't, is the likely favorite. McAfee and Mo Plex are both capable horses if they bring their best game.

Gold Rush:
Field of Gold won the top race at Royal Ascot yesterday. He is one of the world's top 3YOC's this year. With Chunk Of Gold running in the Ohio Derby on Saturday, it looks like the week of the 'of Gold's

You may not be aware of it, but next year's Fair Grounds meet was in danger of not happening; the Fair Grounds is of course one of the top trails leading to the KYD. The Fair Grounds are owned by CDI (i.e., Churchill Downs), and they threatened not to hold a meet because of some recent legislation in Louisiana that would have cut into 40% of their in-state revenues. It seems that the legislature voted to not allow the use of something called Historical Horse Racing Machines (HHR's) anymore in their Off Track Betting parlors; apparently they are quite popular. Cooler heads prevailed after CDI made their threat; discussions with the Governor and legislatures bore fruit and next year's meet (which actually starts later this year) will be held.

If you think the Immigration activities of the Trump Administration haven't touched horse racing, think again. Apparently an ICE raid took place at Delta Downs (Louisiana) where several dozen people were taken into custody. The raid included local police and drones.

A lot of stuff that is not directly races or horses. Is that of interest to any folks? Otherwise, I'll try to keep it to just the races.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
US strikes gold (theme here) at Royal Ascot on Wednesday.
Crimson Advocate, a Nyquist colt, won a G2 race here as a 4YO. As a 2YO, Crimson Advocate won a race at Royal Ascot. Only a couple of starts since then, but obviously a quality colt.

Another US placing (3rd) today (Thursday) is Sandal's Song, trained by George Weaver. Sandal's Song is by Mendelsson (1/2 brother to Into Mischief and a European grass star in his youth). Of interest, in the stretch, Sandal's Song was a victim of an attempted 'savaged' by another horse. Rare and interesting.

In negative news, Jorge' Navarro was released from prison yesterday, because of good behavior. If you recall, 5 years ago there was a big drug scandal that caught a number of trainers in a dragnet. Navarro was a leading trainer at Monmouth Park and trained the great sprinter XY Jet.. until that horse dropped dead from being doped. Jason Servis, trainer of Maximum Security as a 3YO, is still in prison from that set of events. 27 trainers and veterinarians were penalized from those events.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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