Horse Racing 2025

DevilHorse said:
Here's an interesting thing (to me anyway).

A harness track outside of Columbus Ohio, Scioto Downs (yes, I've visited), has introduced a simplified program aimed at neophytes (or people that would rather hit the bathroom/hot dog stand than handicap).
https://twitter.com/x/status/1922398444733530357
Click on the photo to get a closer look at comparison. The simplified program is offered as an option, not a replacement

So what improvements would you like to see to make it better for your handicapping?
And don't say list the winners.. it actually already does.

One thing that harness tracks are doing is posting the pdfs of their program online, everyday. For someone planning a trip to the track, this allows patrons to do the bulk of their handicapping ahead of time. I've seen a few (too few) TBred cards posted in one file. It may cost the tracks a little in program sales, but if it gets more butts in the seats, it is worth it.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
I always pay attention to the picks of the track handicappers. I use them like I do the television handicappers, to see if they like my picks. Just like a regular horse player they have good days and bad days. Churchill has different folks from time to time and I am trying to figure out who is the best.

I hate how many buttons I have to punch to get past performances for future races. Your links to big races have been helpful to me to get an early start handicapping. My wish is to go to Twinspires, punch bet now and the program for the entire week is available and I punch one button and download any day’s races I want.
 
About last week's Preakness.

There was some rough race riding in the stretch. Not sure how some of you come down on it, but the Stewards in Maryland did their due diligence.
www.thoroughbreddailynews.com

No Action Taken Against Preakness Jockeys Prat, Rispoli

Neither jockey Flavien Prat or Umberto Rispoli will be sanctioned for their rides in a roughly run renewal of last Saturday's GI Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. Prat was aboard Goal Oriented (Not This Time) while Rispoli guided home the dramatic winner Journalism (Curlin). The two banged into each...
www.thoroughbreddailynews.com www.thoroughbreddailynews.com

I read an extended explanation by Rispoli on his ride. I'm not sure I was totally convinced (based on what I saw). But I wasn't sitting on a 1200 lb animal going 40 MPH making snap decisions. I think the stewards made the right call. I do have a little experience with having to deal with things when in a race situation; I have been in a sulky (race bike with legs parallel or slightly up) going race speed. Having to make decisions and moves while making sure you don't fall off the horse/bike is challenging. I'm not sure of the protocol when jockeys are close enough to touch and elbow each other, but I think that jockey exchange was innocent.

I've seen some odd steward/judge calls before. One time, at Roosevelt Raceway (at the site where Lindbergh took off on his famous flight - Mitchell Field) I saw a race "won" by a horse named Momentous. His driver took Momentous on the lead and slowed the race down, then sprinted home on the lead and finished first (I didn't say won). There was an inquiry where the judges stated that the driver had slowed the race down too much and was disqualified. There was no sense to that because Momentous won, so the tactics were successful from that standpoint. What I was wondering was why didn't the judges disqualify or penalize all of the other drivers in the race for not taking their horse to the front when it was obvious that the pace was slow (the drivers have a very good sense of pace, so this isn't asking too much). Yes, I had a bet on Momentous :cry:

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Very sad to hear that trainer Cristophe Clement has passed away at age 59 due to complications from a melanoma related illness.
Cristophe, who trained Gio Ponti and Belmont winner Tonalist, was known to have high integrity. For those of us who watch the New York races, Clement was a fixture. He was also the father-in-law of broadcaster Acacia Courtney (Clement).

Knowing that his illness would someday take his life, Cristophe left the note below for posthumous reading. We should all go out with such dignity and grace.
1748252469060.png

Also passing away was Don Combs, whom I never heard of. But he was the trainer of Dust Commander who won the KYD in 1970. Dust Commander was not the most visible sire, but he did sire Preakness winner Master Derby. Before being in Combs's barn, Dust Commander was trained by Billy Turner of Seattle Slew fame.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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The only bet(s) I won on the Preakness was having #9 across-the-board as a small hedge on my other bets. So I won two bets but lost about $150 overall, such is racing and betting as I do. The early bumping that saw no penalties was curious, but I understand why it was judged the way it was. It just sucks that one of my tri-box horses (I keyed #8) was involved and basically stopped competing after that.

Looking forward to who runs in the Belmont.
 
duketaylor said:
The only bet(s) I won on the Preakness was having #9 across-the-board as a small hedge on my other bets. So I won two bets but lost about $150 overall, such is racing and betting as I do. The early bumping that saw no penalties was curious, but I understand why it was judged the way it was. It just sucks that one of my tri-box horses (I keyed #8) was involved and basically stopped competing after that.

Looking forward to who runs in the Belmont.
Click to expand...
One thing about betting triple crown races is that you'll get decent payoffs when you hit. There are no 1/9 shots on this side of Affirmed (he was $2.40 by the way.. still have the ticket).

There was an editorial I read that complained (with good cause) about how much time between the triple crown races and 'official judgements' there is. The opinion about the Preakness came out 6 days after the incident took place. Judges should be able to do much better than that. Same thing with the KYD; 7 days after they gave Rispoli days for hitting Sovereignty one more time than allowed. I guess judges math skills are not as good as a 4th grader. This, considered along with how many KYD's have suffered through years of litigation (i.e., Medina Spirit, Maximum Security) it is insufferable.

Only general comments about the upcoming Belmont at Saratoga..
Sandman is at Saratoga now, but he is aiming for the Jim Dandy.
Baeza and Rodriguez are both looking 'good to go'. But you can never tell with Rodriguez I guesz.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Very sad to hear that trainer Cristophe Clement has passed away at age 59 due to complications from a melanoma related illness.
Cristophe, who trained Gio Ponti and Belmont winner Tonalist, was known to have high integrity. For those of us who watch the New York races, Clement was a fixture. He was also the father-in-law of broadcaster Acacia Courtney (Clement).

Knowing that his illness would someday take his life, Cristophe left the note below for posthumous reading. We should all go out with such dignity and grace.
View attachment 20123

Also passing away was Don Combs, whom I never heard of. But he was the trainer of Dust Commander who won the KYD in 1970. Dust Commander was not the most visible sire, but he did sire Preakness winner Master Derby. Before being in Combs's barn, Dust Commander was trained by Billy Turner of Seattle Slew fame.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
So sorry to hear of the passing of Mr. Clement. If he had a horse in a turf race I spent extra time trying to analyze his past performances, sort of like I do with Chad Brown horses.

Dust Commander was born on a small farm in extreme southern Illinois, literally about 15 miles from the Ohio River. The mare that gave birth to him was so non descript I can’t find anything about her. But his grand sire was Bold Ruler, so he had some good genes. I believe he ended up in Japan as a sire before Master Derby won a big race. Fifty plus years ago I ate lunch regularly with an older gentleman who was from Paris, Kentucky in Bourbon County. I think his father had bred some horses. After Master Derby won the Preakness he said there was some regret that Dust Commander had been sold to the Japanese. I vaguely remember a little about Don Combs. Combs is a fairly common name in Eastern Kentucky. We had a governor named Bert Combs from Eastern Kentucky. He was a young trainer at the time of Dust Commander’s Derby victory.

After writing this, on a whim I asked google about Dust Commander. There is a lengthy article from TwinSpires about Dust Commander as a forgotten Derby winner. My memory shockingly was correct except that Dust Commander went to Japan in 1974 and returned to Kentucky in 1979. Also interesting in light of how horses run today is that he raced 6 times in 1970 before winning a small stakes at Keeneland on April 8 then he won the Bluegrass at Keeneland on April 24, then he won the Derby on May 2. He came out of the Derby with an injured ankle and they still ran him in the Preakness. I’m glad the horses get better treatment in 2025. But maybe those horses of the 60’s and 70’s were bred to be sturdier.

In law school my wife and I would visit the farms and even the barns at Keeneland for free entertainment. I remember Don Combs name on his section of a barn.
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
So sorry to hear of the passing of Mr. Clement. If he had a horse in a turf race I spent extra time trying to analyze his past performances, sort of like I do with Chad Brown horses.

Dust Commander was born on a small farm in extreme southern Illinois, literally about 15 miles from the Ohio River. The mare that gave birth to him was so non descript I can’t find anything about her. But his grand sire was Bold Ruler, so he had some good genes. I believe he ended up in Japan as a sire before Master Derby won a big race. Fifty plus years ago I ate lunch regularly with an older gentleman who was from Paris, Kentucky in Bourbon County. I think his father had bred some horses. After Master Derby won the Preakness he said there was some regret that Dust Commander had been sold to the Japanese. I vaguely remember a little about Don Combs. Combs is a fairly common name in Eastern Kentucky. We had a governor named Bert Combs from Eastern Kentucky. He was a young trainer at the time of Dust Commander’s Derby victory.

After writing this, on a whim I asked google about Dust Commander. There is a lengthy article from TwinSpires about Dust Commander as a forgotten Derby winner. My memory shockingly was correct except that Dust Commander went to Japan in 1974 and returned to Kentucky in 1979. Also interesting in light of how horses run today is that he raced 6 times in 1970 before winning a small stakes at Keeneland on April 8 then he won the Bluegrass at Keeneland on April 24, then he won the Derby on May 2. He came out of the Derby with an injured ankle and they still ran him in the Preakness. I’m glad the horses get better treatment in 2025. But maybe those horses of the 60’s and 70’s were bred to be sturdier.

In law school my wife and I would visit the farms and even the barns at Keeneland for free entertainment. I remember Don Combs name on his section of a barn.
Click to expand...
Dust Commander's name stood out to me as a teenager because there was a commercial on the radio (for who knows what) and it had a rugged western type talking to some people. He had a horse and would say, "whoa Dust Commander". It made no sense then or now, but the name stuck out.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Dust Commander's name stood out to me as a teenager because there was a commercial on the radio (for who knows what) and it had a rugged western type talking to some people. He had a horse and would say, "whoa Dust Commander". It made no sense then or now, but the name stuck out.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...
Ironically he was a better mudder so the name was a bit of a misnomer. But you only learn what surface a horse likes best after he has run some.
 
A couple of interesting older horse races this week:

The Aristedes (a sprint):
[ URL above; Saturday May 31, 2025; Churchill Downs - Race 4; PPs ]
A couple of tremendous sprinters vie against each other. Skelly is perhaps the best sprinter in North America on dirt. World Record looked really good in his last start; he'll be fitter for this race. I'd pick Skelly over World Record in an exacta.

The Blame (a route):
[ URL above; Saturday May 31, 2025; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Post Time got checks against the top older horse competition last year. Mystik Dan had his best start since the KYD last year when last out; he is back in a timely fashion and should be better. Antiquarian won the Peter Pan last year and acquitted himself well in the Belmont before taking 10 months off; he could be a longshot special in here. Most Wanted has been sharp (also cross-entered in an easier allowance race on Sunday; will his connections chicken out and run him on Sunday?).

Next week, the Belmont extravaganza.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
A couple of interesting older horse races this week:

The Aristedes (a sprint):
[ URL above; Saturday May 31, 2025; Churchill Downs - Race 4; PPs ]
A couple of tremendous sprinters vie against each other. Skelly is perhaps the best sprinter in North America on dirt. World Record looked really good in his last start; he'll be fitter for this race. I'd pick Skelly over World Record in an exacta.

The Blame (a route):
[ URL above; Saturday May 31, 2025; Churchill Downs - Race 10; PPs ]
Post Time got checks against the top older horse competition last year. Mystik Dan had his best start since the KYD last year when last out; he is back in a timely fashion and should be better. Antiquarian won the Peter Pan last year and acquitted himself well in the Belmont before taking 10 months off; he could be a longshot special in here. Most Wanted has been sharp (also cross-entered in an easier allowance race on Sunday; will his connections chicken out and run him on Sunday?).

Next week, the Belmont extravaganza.

Larry
DevilHorse
Click to expand...

In the Aristedes, pace made the race. Skelly and World Record went at it for a sub 21 first quarter:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1928895483537244452
Durante, the race winner, actually had the lead early in the race. But Skelly and World Record rapidly passed Durante and put on a speed duel that eventually wasted Skelly. World Record gamely held on for 2nd. Quite the battle.

Mystic Dan looked good in winning the Blame:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1928945232743379446
Much like his KYD win, Mystic Dan cut to the inside and burst to the lead, and then held on. MD is the first KYD winner to win another race at CD since Silver Charm (KYD-97, Clark Stakes-98).

Nysos ducked the tougher sprinters on the east coast (i.e., Skelly, World Record, and now Durante) to run against a ho hum field at Santa Anita:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1928953873848480243
Nysos had only 4 previous starts and only lost (finished 2nd) on an off track.

Sounds like Journalism had a big workout at Saratoga yesterday. Half in 47.5 (fast), galloped out 6f in 1:12 (that wins some races). They won't be able to say that he didn't train well or isn't doing well, should they decide not to run.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Thursday at Saratoga brings us the first big 2YO colt race of the year; the Tremont.
[ URL above; Thursday June 5, 2025; Saratoga - Race 2; PPs ]
It is an early race, but some good ones have won this race: Henny Hughes (good sprinter, sire of Beholder), More Than Ready, Alydar, Bold Forbes, Honest Pleasure. This year, Mythical looks like a lukewarm favorite with Romeo as a contender too. These horses don't even know what they're doing yet, so any of them could win. Do you think that if Romeo gets off to a miserable start the race caller will say, "Wherefore art thou Romeo!" (sorry).

If you want to handicap the Belmont Stakes, here is a pointer to the PPs:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
8 entrants!

Larry
DevilHorse
 
DevilHorse said:
Thursday at Saratoga brings us the first big 2YO colt race of the year; the Tremont.
[ URL above; Thursday June 5, 2025; Saratoga - Race 2; PPs ]
It is an early race, but some good ones have won this race: Henny Hughes (good sprinter, sire of Beholder), More Than Ready, Alydar, Bold Forbes, Honest Pleasure. This year, Mythical looks like a lukewarm favorite with Romeo as a contender too. These horses don't even know what they're doing yet, so any of them could win. Do you think that if Romeo gets off to a miserable start the race caller will say, "Wherefore art thou Romeo!" (sorry).

If you want to handicap the Belmont Stakes, here is a pointer to the PPs:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
8 entrants!

Larry
DevilHorse
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Interesting that all five trainers elected to retain the jockey who rode their horse in his last race. So you end up with only one horse having a world class jockey, Blinging It Back, ridden by Jose Ortiz. I am guessing with lightly race two year olds the jockey with experience with the horse trumps hiring a “better” jockey with no experience with the horse. This is one of those races where I don’t trust the speed figures. Also don’t know what quality horses Mythical or Romeo ran against. If I bet this race, a big IF, probably go with the horse who got a slow start, was green and then surged to lose by 1 3/4, Blinging It Back.
 
I had (only) Blinging It Back earmarked to watch after that great come from behind move. Who knows how he'll do, but that is a great first time effort. Want to see the very green race for BiB? Look for the gray coming from way back:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1917993347265839221
BTW, the horse that won that race, Mercilesanihilator, is in this race too.

Mythical is interesting. She's (yes, the only filly in the race) had all of those bullet workouts, and they are fast (not just best). His maiden race at Gulfstream Park had to be impressive to stretch out to 8 lengths.
Found It:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1912922802312687845
And she looked hand ridden (a good rule with young horses and especially fillies; whipping them can get them sour). Why race against the boys this early? They must think they have something really good.
Frankly, I had no idea who her sire is. He only won 1 of 10 in Europe. And by the way, he is a full brother to American Pharoah; that explains why he was given a chance at stud.

You are right that trainers stick with jockeys that have won (or do really well) until the first loss. Reminds me of old Bud Delp who stuck with Ronnie Franklin through Spectacular Bid's Belmont. Of course he lost that race and Delp found some guy Willie Shoemaker. I don't think Franklin smelled the Bid after that. Although they did say SB stepped on a safety pin the morning of the Belmont. Didn't help his stud career any.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Wesley Ward often runs two year old fillies against males early in the year. I can’t really remember his reasons. But I have a question, are horses similar to humans that the females mature more quickly than males?
 
On Friday is the Acorn for 3YOFs:
[ URL above; Friday June, 6, 2025; Saratoga - Race 11; PPs ]
The great Good Cheer will likely be overbet, and is the likely winner. But there are other good fillies in here. It is likely that there will be water in the track, but GC does well on that surface. Shred the Gnar is improving and La Cara is good. Look Forward can stay better with Rispoli.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt said:
Wesley Ward often runs two year old fillies against males early in the year. I can’t really remember his reasons. But I have a question, are horses similar to humans that the females mature more quickly than males?
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I don't think fillies mature faster than colts. I think that is a human thing more than a horse thing. Fillies are smaller; as horses get older, this difference increases. On rare occasions you'll get a filly that is large and can handle the trips. More often you have a filly that can race against the colts on the turf; that's probably because the races tend to dawdle along and then sprint to the line. So I think that in a sprint a filly might be competitive with a colt, but as the races get longer.. not so much. Trainers also have to pay attention to the filly hormones, especially when racing against the boys; there are legal drugs to regulate a filly's cycle; I don't know how much of an effect this has in 2YOs.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Some exciting races this Saturday at Saratoga:

Race 7 is the True North:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 7; PPs ]
Mullikan looked a little short in his last race at 7f, but now he has 1 race under his belt and pulls back to 6.5f. Nakatomi is back from Saudi Arabia; I've often observed that horses making the trip back to North America from SA take some time to adjust back. Book'em Danno re-appears. He likes 7f, but perhaps he'll find 6.5f more to his liking. He finished within a head of the best sprinters last out.

Race 8 is the Metropolitan Mile:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 8; PPs ]
Guess how long this race is? Great race though; White Abarrio vs. Fierceness. If Fierceness feels good, he wins. White Abarrio has had a great campaign, but his competition is a bit more suspect, and I suspect he prefers going longer than a mile.

Race 11 is the Woody Stephens for 3YO Sprinters:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 11; PPs ]
Woody Stephens won 5 Belmonts in a row as a trainer; great guy and NY denizen. Glad he is has this race named after him.
Citizen Bull was a buzz horse at 2 and earlier this year, but he performed miserably in the KYD; perhaps he didn't like the slop. But he is back sprinting and might be a favorite. Chancer McPatrick was a top 2YO, but when the races got longer.. he didn't; he is back sprinting now, so we'll see how he does. Colloquial has run some great races; he has ability and now a little experience; expect him to hit the board. Neoequos has an awful name for a race caller, and was not placed in races he could win. Perhaps now he won't fail if he's too close to the pace.

Race 12 is the Manhattan on the turf:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 12; PPs ]
Of course, the only turf in Manhattan is in Central Park (or on top of high rises) but I digress.
Deterministic and Spirit of St Louis look like the class of the field; Tucson is moving way up in class.

Race 13 is the big race, the Belmont:
[ URL above; Saturday June 7, 2025; Saratoga - Race 13; PPs ]
This is billed as Sovereignty vs. Journalism. Unlike the Aristides last week, these two horses are not likely to get caught up in a speed duel upfront. Both like to stay mid-pack and come from behind with good success. If there is rain, they both like that too. Rodriguez and Crudo are more likely to be 1/2 around the first turn; we will have pace for the come from behind crowd. Baeza prefers to stalk, but Journalism is better than him. With an 8 horse field, and horses with different styles, no one should get boxed. The big question is whether Sovereignty's 5 weeks off will trump Journalism's 3 weeks off. If Journalism doesn't find a way to get stuck behind horses, he will win. Rodriguez has had a lot of problems since his good showing in the Santa Anita Derby; that might be too well rested. Journalism, Sovereignty, Crudo would be my top 3.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Bonus weekend race on Sunday. It's the Matt Winn stakes for 3YOs:
[ URL above; Sunday May 8, 2025; Santa Anita - Race 8; PPs ]
The Matt Winn stakes is relatively new. It is a place for Triple Crown Trail also rans to establish some credentials and launch into the 3YO races later in the year. The top horses here could attempt the A-circuit races like the Haskell and Jim Dandy, or they can go to races like the Ohio Derby. Lots of money to be had on either circuit.
Final Gambit, 4th in this year's KYD, will take a shot here. The early speed might be provided by East Avenue; if this horse gets loose on the lead, he might not get caught. Coal Battle and Burnham Square had some traffic problems in the KYD and will attempt to re-establish themselves here. Chunk Of Gold also has some ability. Remembering that the KYD was on a sloppy track, there might be some betting overlays here.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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