Horse Racing 2025

This weekend, the Peter Pan Stakes:
[ URL above; May 10, 2025; Belmont at the Big A - Race 11; PPs ]
Captain Cook didn't have enough points to dance in the KYD. His Wood Memorial was sub-par. But he should have enough Jet Fuel to be near the lead at the wire. Hill Road could make it into the exacta.

The Ruffian will also be run:
[ URL above; May 10, 2025; Belmont at the Big A - Race 10; PPs ]
My Mane Squeeze is the class of this field. Takethemoneyhoney looks sharp.

Larry
DevilHorse
Takethemoneyhoney scratched from the Ruffian to compete in the less contentious Serena's Song at Monmouth. Takethemoneyhoney won that race in a gritty stretch duel:

Triple Crown trail horses are sorting themselves out now that the KYD has been run. Some are pointing toward the Preakness, others are looking to regroup. An early summer race that has been getting increasingly higher levels of entrants is the Matt Winn Stakes on June 8 at Churchill. Burnham Square is looking at that race as his next tune up. Previous winners of the Matt Winn include Cyberknife, Maxfield, and Gun Runner.

Sovereignty
's jockey, Junior Albarado, was fined $64k for striking Sovereignty 8 times (only 6 times are allowed under the HISA rules) in the KYD. This seems a bit much, but those are the rules. Perhaps there should be rule adjustments made. How about a proportional number of crop uses relative to the distance of the race? Perhaps more strikes allowed if you use a smaller crop. My guess is the judges are doing all they can just counting to 6.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Early PPs on the Preakness this Saturday:
[ URL above; Saturday May 17, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
Remember, more recent workouts (happening in the future from yesterday's perspective) do not appear in the print.. yet.

Here are PPs for Friday's Black Eyed Susan:
[ URL above; Friday May 16, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
I don't think I've heard of any of these fillies; what a sad state of affairs here.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Early PPs on the Preakness this Saturday:
[ URL above; Saturday May 17, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
Remember, more recent workouts (happening in the future from yesterday's perspective) do not appear in the print.. yet.

Here are PPs for Friday's Black Eyed Susan:
[ URL above; Friday May 16, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
I don't think I've heard of any of these fillies; what a sad state of affairs here.

Larry
DevilHorse
Need a little help handicapping the Preakness?
Here are some experienced horse people to help:

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Need a little help handicapping the Preakness?
Here are some experienced horse people to help:

Larry
DevilHorse
I hope they do better than Andy Beyer and his side kick who both hated Sovereignty in the Derby. It seems to me that Journalism is a lock. Of course no horse is a lock as so many bad things can happen. I will be looking at betting an exacta or probably a double with the race before and after. At least on Brisnet the fastest speed figure on Derby day was the Baffert horse that won an allowance early in the day. But he didn’t win by all that much. This will only be his third race and the jump in class is tremendous. Normally I wouldn’t look twice at such a horse, but it is Baffert and the Preakness.
 
Early PPs on the Preakness this Saturday:
[ URL above; Saturday May 17, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
Remember, more recent workouts (happening in the future from yesterday's perspective) do not appear in the print.. yet.

Here are PPs for Friday's Black Eyed Susan:
[ URL above; Friday May 16, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
I don't think I've heard of any of these fillies; what a sad state of affairs here.

Larry
DevilHorse

Journalism is the best horse in the Preakness (based on performance so far); he has the best speed figures and certainly did the best of those horses that are returning from the KYD. But there is are a couple of horses that is new to this class/field that is interesting; that is Clever Again and Goal Oriented. Sandman is the second choice, and yet Jose Ortiz is choosing the less accomplished Clever Again over Sandman. At this level, I doubt Ortiz is so loyal to Assmussen that he'd take a less capable horse. Goal Oriented had a tremendous second start and retains Prat. Heart Of Honor is difficult to gauge but although he has seconditis, he finished behind the horse that finished last in the Kentucky Derby at Meydan. I'll pick Journalism, Clever Again, and Sandman.

Most of the horses in the Black Eyed Susan are moving up in class; and it is likely that the track will be wet. Margie's Intention looks like she is as good as anyone in here and she did well in the mud and has Flavian Prat. You'll probably get beneficial odds. I'll pick her.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Not sure how a horse on 14 days rest, having never run any where close to that soon, can be considered a lock. I like Clever Again (48 days off) and Goal Oriented to challenge, sprinkle in Sandman also. I'll probably box those 3 with Journalism in some exotics. I've pretty much ruled out the 3, 4,5 and 9 horses, so I'll tinker with the 5 remaining in different fashions. I'm not even comfortable using Journalism as a key. Might key Clever Again, we'll see.
 
Early PPs on the Preakness this Saturday:
[ URL above; Saturday May 17, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
Remember, more recent workouts (happening in the future from yesterday's perspective) do not appear in the print.. yet.

Here are PPs for Friday's Black Eyed Susan:
[ URL above; Friday May 16, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
I don't think I've heard of any of these fillies; what a sad state of affairs here.

Larry
DevilHorse
Reminder that the Pimlico extravaganza starts today with the Black Eyed Susan.

In a bit of good news, I saw that Magnitude had a workout on the docket. Magnitude won the Risen Star (this year) with a 108 Beyer and was then injured. This may be the top 3YO (or not). Just a reminder of his outrageous race:
Note that at 43-1 his previous races were not that exciting.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Early PPs on the Preakness this Saturday:
[ URL above; Saturday May 17, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
Remember, more recent workouts (happening in the future from yesterday's perspective) do not appear in the print.. yet.

Here are PPs for Friday's Black Eyed Susan:
[ URL above; Friday May 16, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
I don't think I've heard of any of these fillies; what a sad state of affairs here.

Larry
DevilHorse

Margie's Intention won the Black Eyed Susan in the slop and may have a future:
Let's hope today's Preakness has a better track.

And now, from the sublime to the ridiculous:

When they had the races at Pimlico yesterday I noticed this sign:
BlackEyed1.png
I was wondering if the Partridge Family had a big fight?!

Even more interesting is the reaction of one of the announcers on Fanduel/TVG when her husband's horse was in it at the end of one of the big races yesterday, the Pimlico Special. Check out this video and lady in Pink in the lower right hand corner:
The lady in pink is Gabby Gaudet who is married to Norm Casse, Awesome Aaron's trainer. Evidently she's ridden this horse in training (she's from a horse training family in Maryland). Watching a horse race, where you have a ticket that is in play is one thing, but I can confirm that the feelings are amped up when you own or train the horse; and even further if it is a big race.

Watch this race, at about the 3:30 mark of this video. This is Britney Eurton, covering the Breeder's Cup race where her father trains the eventual winner Storm The Court:
I had this exact reaction as Britney, and not OMG, but I yelled an expletive (Holy S...) when my horse won a stakes race at 5-1 odds. It is a rush.

What you don't see is the amazing afterglow that lasts for days at a similar level.

Loved owning horses.

Larry
DevilHorse
 

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Jerry Bailey called out NYRA for refusing to accommodate a revised schedule for the Triple Crown Races. Statistics prove that too many horses that finish well in the Derby decline to run in the Preakness. This leads to a bunch of no name horses running in the Preakness. Aside from Journalism and Sandman I can’t name another horse in the race. As I am one of the small minority who still watch horse racing fairly regularly if I can’t name the other horses there is no way the casual fan can name any horse in the race. Watching today seems like a funeral more than a Triple Crown race. I criticize Churchill Downs a lot, but the Stronach family seems intent on destroying horse racing. They closed Golden Gates in the bay area. Not sure how committed they really are Santa Anita. They neglected Pimlico the whole time they owned it. Sorry but the place looks like a dump. So the state is coming to the rescue. Hopefully that works out. Now the Stroanch group wants to sell Gulfstream for development. Prior owners of Gulfstream Park caused the closure of Hialeah by persuading the Florida racing officials to give Gulfstream the best winter racing dates. Some business major could write a paper on horse racing’s self destructive behavior.

Here we are a little more than an hour before the race and not even $3 mil in the win pool. If Journalism stays at 6/5 I will probably bet him. May bet an exacta if I can find a combination I think can win and it’s paying enough to be worth the bet. Good luck to everyone!
 
I bet a 2,6,9 exacta and trifecta. Bet a win bet on the #9. Strictly going for the big bucks. I don’t expect to cash a ticket, but if I do it will pay well. I do think Gosher is better than the longest shot. 2 for 2 this year.
 
Wow, I thought Journalism was going to get hurt. I thought Gosger had won, but hats off to Journalism. A nice exacta with a 6/5 favorite on top.
Really thought he got squeezed out of contention. The jockey on the outside definitely leaned in to him and pulled the horse to the rail. Great race.
 
Early PPs on the Preakness this Saturday:
[ URL above; Saturday May 17, 2025; Pimlico - Race 13; PPs ]
Remember, more recent workouts (happening in the future from yesterday's perspective) do not appear in the print.. yet.

Larry
DevilHorse
Well that was an interesting rendition of the Preakness:
I surmised as the horses were coming out of the far turn, and into the stretch, that Rispoli (Journalism) had a major problem. Earlier in the turn, he had clearance to the outside so he could choose to sweep around the slower horses. But the horse was on the rail and was a bit too fast, so there was little choice but to continue on the rail and try to find a seam to get through. 'Race Riding' is an art and is ill defined; pushing your horse through a space that is not big enough for your horse, and not getting disqualified, takes a lot of skill. IMHO, the good news and bad news for Journalism was that he was between horses. When Goal Oriented made a left turn into Journalism he bounced off a tired Clever Again. This 'pin action' kept Journalism upright and fairly straight, but all 3 horses lost momentum at a critical time of the race. Clever Again retreated (drastically) and Goal Oriented overcompensated to the right to deal with his unfortunate impingement of Journalism's space; so Journalism now had room to roam. During the bumping, (mentioned by one of the talking heads) Journalism switched leads, which usually gives a horse a boost. Journalism then made one of the great accelerations we've seen; I don't think Gosger was slowing down. I estimate that Gosger's last 2 furlongs were done in 13 and change seconds; not a tiring number. Journalism had to come home in almost 12 seconds, a rare gear for a horse whose momentum was impeded. Sandman's trip was interesting to follow. He was last and about 10-15 lengths from the front on the backstretch. Sandman then started to pick off horses but did not go very wide until the stretch; he had clear sailing and actually passed Journalism (as he was coming out of the incident) whose momentum had been affected. But Journalism ran that one down. Perhaps Sandman shouldn't have been as far back. Journalism's people realized that he was too far back in the KYD and had him closer to the front, but that created the situation where he was boxed. This 1:55 3/5 Preakness wasn't the fastest (perhaps a dull track from the rain), but was one of the most exciting. It will be interesting to hear what Journalism's stride is because he was eating up ground in the stretch. Beyer figures not out yet. Larry Colmus did a great job calling the stretch.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
Well that was an interesting rendition of the Preakness:
I surmised as the horses were coming out of the far turn, and into the stretch, that Rispoli (Journalism) had a major problem. Earlier in the turn, he had clearance to the outside so he could choose to sweep around the slower horses. But the horse was on the rail and was a bit too fast, so there was little choice but to continue on the rail and try to find a seam to get through. 'Race Riding' is an art and is ill defined; pushing your horse through a space that is not big enough for your horse, and not getting disqualified, takes a lot of skill. IMHO, the good news and bad news for Journalism was that he was between horses. When Goal Oriented made a left turn into Journalism he bounced off a tired Clever Again. This 'pin action' kept Journalism upright and fairly straight, but all 3 horses lost momentum at a critical time of the race. Clever Again retreated (drastically) and Goal Oriented overcompensated to the right to deal with his unfortunate impingement of Journalism's space; so Journalism now had room to roam. During the bumping, (mentioned by one of the talking heads) Journalism switched leads, which usually gives a horse a boost. Journalism then made one of the great accelerations we've seen; I don't think Gosger was slowing down. I estimate that Gosger's last 2 furlongs were done in 13 and change seconds; not a tiring number. Journalism had to come home in almost 12 seconds, a rare gear for a horse whose momentum was impeded. Sandman's trip was interesting to follow. He was last and about 10-15 lengths from the front on the backstretch. Sandman then started to pick off horses but did not go very wide until the stretch; he had clear sailing and actually passed Journalism (as he was coming out of the incident) whose momentum had been affected. But Journalism ran that one down. Perhaps Sandman shouldn't have been as far back. Journalism's people realized that he was too far back in the KYD and had him closer to the front, but that created the situation where he was boxed. This 1:55 3/5 Preakness wasn't the fastest (perhaps a dull track from the rain), but was one of the most exciting. It will be interesting to hear what Journalism's stride is because he was eating up ground in the stretch. Beyer figures not out yet. Larry Colmus did a great job calling the stretch.

Larry
DevilHorse
I found this birds-eye view of the box Journalism was in.
I would have liked to see that view continue instead of switching to the side/normal view.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
I thought those three horses were going to go down like bowling pins, glad the jostling didn't end up tragically.
 
It was an exciting race. Already wondering how many of these horses continue on to the Belmont stakes at Saratoga again this year. The “experts” were all over Clever Again. Maybe just my prejudice but Oaklawn winners have not exactly distinguished themselves at other tracks this year. Of course you can argue only Sovereignty and Journalism have really distinguished themselves this racing year. Hopefully both are healthy, happy and heading to the Belmont Stakes. That will be an exacta that pays very little.
 
Well that was an interesting rendition of the Preakness:
I surmised as the horses were coming out of the far turn, and into the stretch, that Rispoli (Journalism) had a major problem. Earlier in the turn, he had clearance to the outside so he could choose to sweep around the slower horses. But the horse was on the rail and was a bit too fast, so there was little choice but to continue on the rail and try to find a seam to get through. 'Race Riding' is an art and is ill defined; pushing your horse through a space that is not big enough for your horse, and not getting disqualified, takes a lot of skill. IMHO, the good news and bad news for Journalism was that he was between horses. When Goal Oriented made a left turn into Journalism he bounced off a tired Clever Again. This 'pin action' kept Journalism upright and fairly straight, but all 3 horses lost momentum at a critical time of the race. Clever Again retreated (drastically) and Goal Oriented overcompensated to the right to deal with his unfortunate impingement of Journalism's space; so Journalism now had room to roam. During the bumping, (mentioned by one of the talking heads) Journalism switched leads, which usually gives a horse a boost. Journalism then made one of the great accelerations we've seen; I don't think Gosger was slowing down. I estimate that Gosger's last 2 furlongs were done in 13 and change seconds; not a tiring number. Journalism had to come home in almost 12 seconds, a rare gear for a horse whose momentum was impeded. Sandman's trip was interesting to follow. He was last and about 10-15 lengths from the front on the backstretch. Sandman then started to pick off horses but did not go very wide until the stretch; he had clear sailing and actually passed Journalism (as he was coming out of the incident) whose momentum had been affected. But Journalism ran that one down. Perhaps Sandman shouldn't have been as far back. Journalism's people realized that he was too far back in the KYD and had him closer to the front, but that created the situation where he was boxed. This 1:55 3/5 Preakness wasn't the fastest (perhaps a dull track from the rain), but was one of the most exciting. It will be interesting to hear what Journalism's stride is because he was eating up ground in the stretch. Beyer figures not out yet. Larry Colmus did a great job calling the stretch.

Larry
DevilHorse
Beyer for Journalism in the Preakness - 98
Beyer for Margie's Intention - 81
Beyer for Gabby Gifford's husband's horse, former $40k claimer Awesome Aaron - 100

Here is a nifty analysis of Beyer Figures for previous winners of the Preakness:
Highest ever Beyer Figure for a Preakness, Smarty Jones 118 in 2004.

Interesting comments from Dave Argona:
The Gmax data for Journalism in the Preakness is pretty incredible. He ran his final furlong (12.30) over a second faster than his penultimate furlong (13.44) with all that trouble. Similarly mind-boggling stride length data at that point, going from 23 feet to 25+ feet.

Gmax provides wireless real-time monitoring of total horse performance

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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No stakes races caught my eye this week.

Biggest news has been that Journalism has shipped to Saratoga. His team hasn't committed to the Belmont yet, but the move is to position him for the best outcome should they decide he will run in the Belmont. Other alternatives considered was to train at CD, and ship if they were going to run; this didn't seem to anyone like a good strategy if they would want to win. Sovereignty and Baeza await.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
No stakes races caught my eye this week.

Biggest news has been that Journalism has shipped to Saratoga. His team hasn't committed to the Belmont yet, but the move is to position him for the best outcome should they decide he will run in the Belmont. Other alternatives considered was to train at CD, and ship if they were going to run; this didn't seem to anyone like a good strategy if they would want to win. Sovereignty and Baeza await.

Larry
DevilHorse
Great news!
 
Here's an interesting thing (to me anyway).

A harness track outside of Columbus Ohio, Scioto Downs (yes, I've visited), has introduced a simplified program aimed at neophytes (or people that would rather hit the bathroom/hot dog stand than handicap).
Click on the photo to get a closer look at comparison. The simplified program is offered as an option, not a replacement

So what improvements would you like to see to make it better for your handicapping?
And don't say list the winners.. it actually already does.

One thing that harness tracks are doing is posting the pdfs of their program online, everyday. For someone planning a trip to the track, this allows patrons to do the bulk of their handicapping ahead of time. I've seen a few (too few) TBred cards posted in one file. It may cost the tracks a little in program sales, but if it gets more butts in the seats, it is worth it.

Larry
DevilHorse
 
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