Well, we won. Those of us who remember the bad old days will celebrate every win we can get. But man, that was close to catastrophe.
The Good:
- We started really well. 17-0 out of the gate and it looked like we were headed for another 41-7 kind of game. Perhaps, if not for that really unlucky pick six, things would look rosier.
- We found at least the first signs of a running game. 142 on the ground might be enough with our pass heavy offense, though 3.6 ypc isn't anything to get excited about. Nice work from Star Thomas, who finally had some room to run.
- Despite the 3rd quarter, we were the better team. The SP+ win expectancy was 93%. We survived a crazy fluke turnover and some adversity in the 3rd quarter. Maalik has now led two fourth quarter comebacks as a Blue Devil. For all his inconsistency, he does not seem to lack for confidence late in games. 6
- Have a day, Que'sean Brown! 11 catches for 87 yards including the game winner and a huge 3rd down catch late. I really like this kid's game. Duke never seems to be able to get big physical receivers, but we have had good luck with small shifty ones. Perhaps most importantly, those jet sweep passes around the edge are a nice way to stretch defenses when we aren't running the ball well.
- Special teams were great. The Toddfather knocked in two long ones, and our young punter has been really good. Brown had a nice punt return or two as well.
- The WRs had a bounce back day after all the drops last week. I'm not sure we dropped anything yesterday. Special shout out to Nicky Dalmolin, who was a forgotten man most of the day, but caught his only target and made a nice move to pick up a key 3rd down.
The Bad:
- We were dreadful out of halftime. What on earth happened? We had time to regroup after the pick six, got the opening kickoff, and had the chance to set the tone. On both sides of the ball we were bad in the 3rd quarter.
- I have to say, I'm not all that impressed with our offensive schemes. We don't seem to fool anybody. Our running game is vanilla and if a play isn't well blocked, it just goes nowhere. I am completely flabbergasted at our complete refusal to use the QB in the running game. I know it's not Maalik's strength. But it feels like we're playing 10 on 11 in our running game. The passing game shows promise: Maalik throws a pretty good deep ball and has the arm strength to zip balls in, which is nice. But it feels like we are so dependent on his accuracy to move the ball.
- This team hasn't been good at getting the "tough yards" on offense. It's a huge contrast to the last two years, where we were so good in short yardage. It seemed like with Riley back there, he could always create a few yards when we really needed it. Having a great running QB and two NFL draft pick OL make a big difference, it turns out. This year's offense can't power run and hasn't shown any "ad-lib" ability at all. And all the failed deep balls on third and short... yikes.
- The defensive front had a tough game. After 8 sacks in game one, we've had just one sack in the last two games. UConn ran the ball well on us. They outrushed us 4.8 ypc to 3.6, which is not an acceptable number against a far inferior opponent.
The Statistical:
- All TDs count the same, but I'm fascinated that we are scoring so many through the air this year. Under Cut and Elko, we ran for way more scores than we passed (under Cut, it felt like half our TDs were QB runs from inside the 5). In 2023, we ran for 26 TDs and passed for 14. In 2022, we ran for 31 and passed for 20. In 2021 we passed for 9 and ran for 21. This year, we have 8 passing TDs and just 1 on the ground.
- Speaking of TD's through the air, Eli Pancol has 4 of them through 3 games. In Duke history, only 3 players have had at least 10 in a season (Clarkston Hines x3, Chris Castor, Cedric Jones). 6 more TDs in the next 9/10 games seems at least possible.
- When was the last time we won a football game without a rushing TD? Okay, it was last week. But before that? I'm thinking it was a 9-7 win over BC in 2015. I can't imagine it's happened many times in recent memory, and now it's happened in back to back weeks.
- Are we destined to score 26 every game?
The Realistic:
- Last night's effort simply would not have been good enough to win in the ACC. We get one more tune up and then the road gets much tougher. My expectation is that we should beat MTSU, but it may be a big challenge to win two in ACC play to get to 6 wins. There's still time to improve and for more twists in the tale, of course.
- One good thing is that our schedule looks easier than expected. FSU, NC State, VT, UNC, and SMU have all looked worse than expected. While some of the upstarts in the ACC (Cal, Pitt, BC) aren't on the schedule.
