FB: Duke 14, Georgia Tech 24

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"The Devils went down to Georgia / they were looking for a bowl to steal."

Saturday night's game between Duke (5-0) and Georgia Tech (3-2) is in Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is 8pm ET, and you can see it on ACC Network (streaming link).

GoDuke has today's press conferences from head coach Manny Diaz, offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer, and defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke.

Discuss the game here.
 
I'm listening to Coach Patke's press conference. He said the new guys didn't realize how big the game was and were "on their heels" in the first half. We sometimes forget that the outside world doesn't realize how seriously we take EVERY competition with those people.
 
Maged said:
I'm listening to Coach Patke's press conference. He said the new guys didn't realize how big the game was and were "on their heels" in the first half. We sometimes forget that the outside world doesn't realize how seriously we take EVERY competition with those people.
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1727731802587.gifWell, they got off their heels 1727731809504.gifand onto the balls of their feet and put those holes1727731814712.gif on their butts but good!1727731797567.gif
 
Duke is a 7.5 points underdog at VegasInsider.com.

ESPN Football Power Index gives Georgia Tech a 67.3% chance to win.

Sagarin ratings has Georgia Tech at 58 and Duke at 66.
 
Bob Green said:
Duke is a 7.5 points underdog at VegasInsider.com.

ESPN Football Power Index gives Georgia Tech a 67.3% chance to win.

Sagarin ratings has Georgia Tech at 58 and Duke at 66.
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We remain the Rodney Dangerfield of ACC football. But a win here will change that.

I remain as frustrated as everyone else with an immobile QB, but he’s getting the job done even after slow starts. Let’s go!
 
That spread is really high. These teams are pretty even, I think. FWIW, Bill Connelly's SP+ has Duke favored by 1 point. His system has Duke higher than just about anybody, at #36. GT is at #52.

A lot of they hype around GT came from their win in Ireland over FSU that looks.... less impressive now. They handled Georgia State and VMI, then lost their other two conference games. Against Syracuse, they got absolutely worked by Kyle McCord to the tune of 381 passing yards. Against Louisville, they were competitive until a late blocked FG returned for a TD. Strangely, they outgained Louisville 410-326 in total offense, but got outgained on a ypp basis 7.1-5.9.

If there's an advantage for Duke, it's definitely our defense. We're holding opponents to just 4.1 ypp(#1 in the ACC), compared to 5.2 for GT. However, their offense has been better, averaging 7.0 ypp to 5.2 for Duke. They definitely have the best offense we've faced this year. Perhaps the biggest matchup will be Duke's pass rush, with 17 sacks (#2 in the ACC), against GT's pass protection, which has not allowed a sack all year. To win, we need to find a way to get a pass rush and make plays through the air, which is where they seem to be vulnerable.

There are a few factors pointing to a loss: road game, perceived disadvantage at QB, and the sense that we may be "due" a loss (I know, gambler's fallacy and all that). We've built up enough equity that a loss wouldn't dampen my enthusiasm for where this program is headed.
 
Dr. Maturin said:
There are a few factors pointing to a loss: road game, perceived disadvantage at QB, and the sense that we may be "due" a loss (I know, gambler's fallacy and all that). We've built up enough equity that a loss wouldn't dampen my enthusiasm for where this program is headed.
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Great post. I agree wholeheartedly but like you and all other Duke fans I really want to win this game. A victory makes us 6-0 with a bye week before hosting a struggling FSU team on Friday night. Golden opportunity for the program to shine on ESPN2.
 
The spread tells me that the sharps don't trust this Duke team yet, and they don't think its a very good team. I mean, if Im honest, if someone asked me who the worst 5-0 FBS team is right now, I would probably pick Duke, and I'm probably paying more attention to them than the pundits are. The offense still struggles a lot to move the ball consistentlyand thats the biggest problem. Im just not sold on the offense and it seems like teams know how to shut them down to get them off the field. This means the defense, which I do think is solid, spends more time on the field than it needs too. Unlike UNC where I was worried about the emotional state and potential rebound for a team that got embarrassed the week before, I think GT might just be the all around better team. This game, win or lose, will be a better representation of where exactly Duke is, as I see GT as a team toward the top end of the middle tier.
 
HoKogan said:
The spread tells me that the sharps don't trust this Duke team yet, and they don't think its a very good team. I mean, if Im honest, if someone asked me who the worst 5-0 FBS team is right now, I would probably pick Duke, and I'm probably paying more attention to them than the pundits are. The offense still struggles a lot to move the ball consistentlyand thats the biggest problem. Im just not sold on the offense and it seems like teams know how to shut them down to get them off the field. This means the defense, which I do think is solid, spends more time on the field than it needs too. Unlike UNC where I was worried about the emotional state and potential rebound for a team that got embarrassed the week before, I think GT might just be the all around better team. This game, win or lose, will be a better representation of where exactly Duke is, as I see GT as a team toward the top end of the middle tier.
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Fair points, and here's my question: can we repeat the success running the football that we had in the second half last week? Northwestern played a light box and was able to stop the run. Eventually we adjusted with the intermediate passing game, in part because they couldn't cover our WRs. UNC played a light box as well, and did a better job covering our WRs(with a lot of holding and grabbing). Eventually, we punished the light box and UNC never made counter adjustments.

GT has done well stopping the run. It seems likely they'll employ a similar strategy. We have to find a way to run the ball with at least moderate success when teams back off. If we do, it should expose the weaker underbelly of their pass coverage.
 
Maalik Murphy and the receivers need to be in sync. An example of what I am talking about is the first series from scrimmage against Carolina. Star Thomas gains six yards on 1st down. On second and four, Eli Pancol is split out by himself on the left, goes deep and has a step on the cornerback with inside leverage but Murphy throws the ball outside and over Pancol’s head.

I have no idea if Murphy threw an inaccurate pass or if he expected Pancol to stay outside but a huge opportunity was missed for an explosive, perhaps a touchdown.

Those are the plays the offense needs to be successful. Hit on those then pound away with the run.
 
The biggest key for this Duke team will be how quickly they can come down from the high of beating UNC (I hate playing this early in the season) and get back to work. Hopefully, Diaz will have them refocused. We have already played a handful of running QBs, though this will be the best one we have faced this year.
 
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