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The #9 Blue Devils ended their regular season undefeated against teams that start with the letter A (3-0: Army, Arizona, Auburn). They are also 1-0 against conferences that start with that letter -- Maine plays in the America East -- but there are quite a few more of those games left to play. Based on recent results, it seems that one surefire way to tear through the Atlantic Coast Conference is to sew an SEC patch on the Duke jersey. Barring that unlikely option, they'll just have to take their chances and play the games straight up, beginning with a road game in Louisville's KFC Yum! Center this Sunday evening on the ACC Network (streaming link, listen, live stats).
Their Adidas uniforms are still terrible, but this is a brand new Cardinals team. Gone is the 2-year Kenny Payne experiment (12-52 overall, 5-35 ACC); all 13 scholarship players from last season entered the portal. They've been replaced by former Charleston coach Pat Kelsey, RSCI #33 freshman Khani Rooths, and 12 incoming transfers. You may recall that I kept track of all ACC portal activity during the offseason:
13 OUT
Skyy Clark (to UCLA)
Koron Davis (to Louisiana)
Dennis Evans (to Grand Canyon)
Kaleb Glenn (to Florida Atlantic)
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (to NC State)
Mike James (to NC State)
Ty-Laur Johnson (to Wake Forest)
Danilo Jovanovich (to Milwaukee)
Hercy Miller (to Southern Utah)
Emmanuel Okorafor (to Seton Hall)
JJ Traynor (to DePaul)
Tre White (to Illinois)
Curtis Williams (to Georgetown)
12 IN
Frank Anselem-Ibe (from Georgia)
Terrence Edwards Jr (from James Madison)
J'Vonne Hadley (from Colorado)
Chucky Hepburn (from Wisconsin)
Koren Johnson (from Washington)
Aly Khalifa (from BYU)
Kasean Pryor (from South Florida)
Kobe Rodgers (from Charleston)
James Scott (from Charleston)
Reyne Smith (from Charleston)
Aboubacar Traoré (from Long Beach State)
Noah Waterman (from BYU)
Like Kentucky and Auburn, the Cardinals are mostly older players using their last year of eligibility. (Rooths, sophomore James Scott, and junior Koren Johnson are the only underclassmen.) But unlike those teams, Coach Kelsey had the opportunity to build team chemistry over the summer with a 5-day trip to the Bahamas, where they played a pair of exhibition games. I briefly previewed the team and covered their experience here.
The Cards are 5-3 this season. You'd think their best win was against then-ranked Indiana, their first opponent in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament that took place in the Bahamas last week (89-61: recap, box score, highlights). The latest NET Rankings, however, list that as a Quad 2 win. Their only Quad 1 win occurred the next day against West Virginia (79-70 OT: recap, box score, highlights). The day after that, they lost to Oklahoma in the title game. Louisville is actually 0-3 against the SEC, with home losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss as well. (Seriously, just have someone sneak into the Duke locker room today and sew the SEC patches on the jerseys in an inconspicuous place.)
I can't discuss the team roster without first talking about their injuries. WDRB and Card Chronicle have reported that guards Kasean Pryor (torn ACL) and Koren Johnson (shoulder surgery) will miss the rest of the season, while Aboubacar Traoré (broken arm) won't return for at least another month. Meanwhile, Aly Khalifa and Kobe Rodgers have not played at all due to injuries, and Coach Kelsey has yet to decide if either can accelerate their recovery and return this season. These absences have reduced Louisville to a 7-man rotation.
(Edited to include jersey numbers. Hat tip to @kcduke75 for the suggestion.)
PROBABLE STARTERS
6-2 senior guard Chucky Hepburn #24 (15.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.5 ast, 3.5 stl)
6-2 senior guard Reyne Smith #6 (12.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-6 fifth-year wing Terrence Edwards #5 (10.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.4 ast)
6-6 fifth-year guard J'Vonne Hadley #1 (9.8 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.5 ast)
6-11 sixth-year forward Noah Waterman #93 (6.8 pts, 4.3 reb, 0.5 ast)
TOP RESERVES
6-11 sophomore forward James Scott #0 (6.8 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-8 freshman forward Khani Rooths #9 (3.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.5 ast)
BENCH PLAYERS
5-11 fifth-year guard Patrick Antonelli #12 (1.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-10 fifth-year center Frank Anselem-Ibe #13 (0.4 pts, 1.2 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 grad guard Aidan McCool #33 (0.3 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
5-11 junior guard Cole Sherman #4 (0.0 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-7 junior guard Spencer Legg #55 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
INJURY/REDSHIRT
6-10 fifth-year forward Kasean Pryor #7 (12.0 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.6 stl, 1.1 blk)
6-2 junior guard Koren Johnson #3 (3.0 pts, 1.5 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.5 stl)
6-5 senior forward Aboubacar Traore #25 (1.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.5 blk)
6-11 senior center Aly Khalifa #15
6-3 senior guard Kobe Rodgers #11
That 7-man rotation can still make some noise. Chucky Hepburn leads the ACC in steals, and is 2nd nationally in that category. Reyne Smith is the league's most prolific outside shooter, having attempted 72 threes and made 28 of them, for a success rate of 38.9 percent. (As a comparison, Tyrese Proctor leads Duke with 54 three-point attempts.) James Scott does not shoot threes (0-1 this season), but he is making 88.5 percent of his shots inside the arc, tops in the conference.
In case you see his last name and wonder, walk-on Patrick Antonelli (bio) is the youngest son of ESPN announcer and former NC State basketball player Debbie Antonelli. If she's at the game on Sunday, it won't be in a work capacity; according to ESPN Press Room, her assignment this weekend is in Raleigh, announcing the Wolfpack men's game on Saturday against Florida State.
These two tables, from Basketball Reference and other listed sources, help provide a statistical comparison between the Cardinals and Blue Devils. (By the way, Bart Torvik is projecting a 75-67 Duke win.)
TABLE 1
TABLE 2
NET quadrants explained:
The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 20 slowest teams, and is KenPom #5.
Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
Their Adidas uniforms are still terrible, but this is a brand new Cardinals team. Gone is the 2-year Kenny Payne experiment (12-52 overall, 5-35 ACC); all 13 scholarship players from last season entered the portal. They've been replaced by former Charleston coach Pat Kelsey, RSCI #33 freshman Khani Rooths, and 12 incoming transfers. You may recall that I kept track of all ACC portal activity during the offseason:
13 OUT
Skyy Clark (to UCLA)
Koron Davis (to Louisiana)
Dennis Evans (to Grand Canyon)
Kaleb Glenn (to Florida Atlantic)
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (to NC State)
Mike James (to NC State)
Ty-Laur Johnson (to Wake Forest)
Danilo Jovanovich (to Milwaukee)
Hercy Miller (to Southern Utah)
Emmanuel Okorafor (to Seton Hall)
JJ Traynor (to DePaul)
Tre White (to Illinois)
Curtis Williams (to Georgetown)
12 IN
Frank Anselem-Ibe (from Georgia)
Terrence Edwards Jr (from James Madison)
J'Vonne Hadley (from Colorado)
Chucky Hepburn (from Wisconsin)
Koren Johnson (from Washington)
Aly Khalifa (from BYU)
Kasean Pryor (from South Florida)
Kobe Rodgers (from Charleston)
James Scott (from Charleston)
Reyne Smith (from Charleston)
Aboubacar Traoré (from Long Beach State)
Noah Waterman (from BYU)
Like Kentucky and Auburn, the Cardinals are mostly older players using their last year of eligibility. (Rooths, sophomore James Scott, and junior Koren Johnson are the only underclassmen.) But unlike those teams, Coach Kelsey had the opportunity to build team chemistry over the summer with a 5-day trip to the Bahamas, where they played a pair of exhibition games. I briefly previewed the team and covered their experience here.
The Cards are 5-3 this season. You'd think their best win was against then-ranked Indiana, their first opponent in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament that took place in the Bahamas last week (89-61: recap, box score, highlights). The latest NET Rankings, however, list that as a Quad 2 win. Their only Quad 1 win occurred the next day against West Virginia (79-70 OT: recap, box score, highlights). The day after that, they lost to Oklahoma in the title game. Louisville is actually 0-3 against the SEC, with home losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss as well. (Seriously, just have someone sneak into the Duke locker room today and sew the SEC patches on the jerseys in an inconspicuous place.)
I can't discuss the team roster without first talking about their injuries. WDRB and Card Chronicle have reported that guards Kasean Pryor (torn ACL) and Koren Johnson (shoulder surgery) will miss the rest of the season, while Aboubacar Traoré (broken arm) won't return for at least another month. Meanwhile, Aly Khalifa and Kobe Rodgers have not played at all due to injuries, and Coach Kelsey has yet to decide if either can accelerate their recovery and return this season. These absences have reduced Louisville to a 7-man rotation.
(Edited to include jersey numbers. Hat tip to @kcduke75 for the suggestion.)
PROBABLE STARTERS
6-2 senior guard Chucky Hepburn #24 (15.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.5 ast, 3.5 stl)
6-2 senior guard Reyne Smith #6 (12.5 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.5 ast)
6-6 fifth-year wing Terrence Edwards #5 (10.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.4 ast)
6-6 fifth-year guard J'Vonne Hadley #1 (9.8 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.5 ast)
6-11 sixth-year forward Noah Waterman #93 (6.8 pts, 4.3 reb, 0.5 ast)
TOP RESERVES
6-11 sophomore forward James Scott #0 (6.8 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.1 blk)
6-8 freshman forward Khani Rooths #9 (3.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.5 ast)
BENCH PLAYERS
5-11 fifth-year guard Patrick Antonelli #12 (1.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-10 fifth-year center Frank Anselem-Ibe #13 (0.4 pts, 1.2 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-3 grad guard Aidan McCool #33 (0.3 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
5-11 junior guard Cole Sherman #4 (0.0 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.0 ast)
6-7 junior guard Spencer Legg #55 (0.0 pts, 0.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
INJURY/REDSHIRT
6-10 fifth-year forward Kasean Pryor #7 (12.0 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.6 stl, 1.1 blk)
6-2 junior guard Koren Johnson #3 (3.0 pts, 1.5 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.5 stl)
6-5 senior forward Aboubacar Traore #25 (1.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.5 blk)
6-11 senior center Aly Khalifa #15
6-3 senior guard Kobe Rodgers #11
That 7-man rotation can still make some noise. Chucky Hepburn leads the ACC in steals, and is 2nd nationally in that category. Reyne Smith is the league's most prolific outside shooter, having attempted 72 threes and made 28 of them, for a success rate of 38.9 percent. (As a comparison, Tyrese Proctor leads Duke with 54 three-point attempts.) James Scott does not shoot threes (0-1 this season), but he is making 88.5 percent of his shots inside the arc, tops in the conference.
In case you see his last name and wonder, walk-on Patrick Antonelli (bio) is the youngest son of ESPN announcer and former NC State basketball player Debbie Antonelli. If she's at the game on Sunday, it won't be in a work capacity; according to ESPN Press Room, her assignment this weekend is in Raleigh, announcing the Wolfpack men's game on Saturday against Florida State.
These two tables, from Basketball Reference and other listed sources, help provide a statistical comparison between the Cardinals and Blue Devils. (By the way, Bart Torvik is projecting a 75-67 Duke win.)
TABLE 1
| Category | Louisville (5-3) | Duke (6-2) |
| Points Scored | 77.4 (158th nationally) | 81.1 (76th) |
| Points Allowed | 67.1 (88th) | 61.0 (15th) |
| Scoring Margin (NCAA.com) | 10.3 (92nd) | 20.1 (17th) |
| Bench Points (NCAA.com) | 27.0 (94th) | 23.4 (167th) |
| Total Rebounds | 39.3 (78th) | 40.4 (45th) |
| --- Offensive Rebounds | 13.8 (38th) | 11.9 (121st) |
| --- Defensive Rebounds | 25.5 (193rd) | 28.5 (37th) |
| Assists | 14.0 (192nd) | 16.6 (56th) |
| Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com) | 1.07 (227th) | 1.56 (37th) |
| Steals | 8.5 (71st) | 9.1 (49th) |
| Blocks | 3.6 (147th) | 4.1 (91st) |
| Turnovers | 13.1 (255th fewest) | 10.6 (68th fewest) |
| Personal Fouls | 17.3 (178th fewest) | 16.6 (137th fewest) |
| Field Goal Percentage | 43.4% (250th) | 46.7% (110th) |
| 2-Point FG Percentage | 60.5% (12th) | 56.3% (87th) |
| 3-Point FG Percentage | 27.3% (349th) | 36.6% (84th) |
| Free Throw Percentage | 70.1% (217th) | 71.3% (181st) |
TABLE 2
| Category | Louisville | Duke |
| NET Ranking (NCAA.com) | #61 | #4 |
| --- Quad 1 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| --- Quad 2 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| --- Quad 3 | 0-0 | 3-0 |
| --- Quad 4 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) | #53 | #3 |
| --- Offensive Efficiency | 78th | 10th |
| --- Defensive Efficiency | 32nd | 1st |
| --- Tempo | 113th | 244th |
| Fastbreak Points (NCAA.com) | 6.8 (313th) | 13.1 (94th) |
| T-Rank (Bart Torvik) | #56 (T-Page) | #1 (T-Page) |
| --- Experience | 2.612 (13th) | 1.02 (358th) |
| --- Talent | 19.848 (137th) | 81.894 (3rd) |
NET quadrants explained:
The quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Ken Pomeroy defines efficiency as an extrapolated measure of points scored (offensive) or allowed (defensive) per 100 possessions against an average opponent. The more points you score and the fewer points you allow, the better. Tempo refers to the number of possessions per 40 minutes against an average tempo: the higher the rank, the faster the tempo. Faster isn't necessarily better; Houston is among the 20 slowest teams, and is KenPom #5.
Bart Torvik offers some clarification on Experience and Talent in the comments here. Experience "is based on class year (3 for senior, 0 for freshman) with caveat that it actually counts how many years a guy has played 10 games in, so if a guy is listed as a soph even though he's played two full years already, he'll count as a junior." Talent "is based on composite recruiting ranks weighted for minutes played."
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