Duke Softball 2025
- Thread starter loran16
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Weekend Preview: Notre Dame.
So I skipped last weekend's preview figuring Pitt was so terrible - they are - that Duke should dominate them and it would be a waste of time. Welp. So this week we get a slightly less bad opponent in Notre Dame (RPI #88). Notre Dame has given Duke some trouble over the last few years, taking single games in series even when Duke should have swept them, but this year's ND team has been worse than those teams, despite some expectations they could compete for a tourney spot. They DO have some reasonable wins - They're 5-15 against RPI top 50 teams with 2 against top 25 teams (both against #25 in the RPI Virginia) - so they can surprise and beat you, but Duke again SHOULD sweep them, as we have swept better opponents.
ND is coming off a weekend at VT where they got blown up (2 run rule losses in the sweep) and this should not be different. And unlike last weekend, this series is at home, not in a super cold weekend in Pitt, so Duke really has no excuse for not winning all 3 games (if not run ruling them).
ND on Offense:
Notre Dame hits .274/.363/.386 as a team, which isn't particularly good, even if it's not terrible. They don't hit a lot of home runs (27 on the year), and only have a single hitter with a slugging percentage over .430 and only two batters over .300 in batting average. That said, Notre Dame DOES have one really really good hitter: Sophomore Addison Amaral, who hits .386/.490/.630 with 24 walks and 7 Home runs against just 10 strikeouts. I wonder how many of those walks are intentional, because ND doesn't have a single other hitter with an OPS over .900 (Duke by comparison has 4, almost 5, and our offense hasn't been really elite this year). Duke pitching will want to avoid allowing Amaral to bat with runners on, because that's probably the most likely way Duke could lose any of these games.
I'd normally here highlight a few other hitters to look out for, but there really isn't much else in the ND Lineup. I guess there's sophomore Sydny Poeck, who is hitting .330/.444/.409 - not much pop there, but she can get on base a lot. ND's offense is again not as awful as say Pitt, mainly because there's a lot of meh behind Amaral and not a lot of utterly awful (every starter has an OPS above .600, which is not a good level -for comparison, Brooklinn Thomas isnt' clearing that level but she's getting close).
ND Pitching:
Notre Dame relies upon four pitchers, all of whom have ERAs in the fours, which is not good (Even with her struggles, Cass is at 3.29, Dani is at 2.9, and even Sophie is at 3.63). Most of these pitchers DO get strikeouts - 3 of their four starters average a strikeout or more per inning, which is very good - but also feature a lot of walks, hits, and home runs (My suspicion is ND is very rise ball heavy).
Their most used starter is Junior Micaela Kastor, who has pitched 90.1 innings at a 4.8 ERA, with 91 Strikeouts (good) to go with 57 walks (really bad, nearly 2/3 walks per inning), and 91 hits (also bad) and a .256 Batting average against with 15 home runs allowed. Yikes. #2 Starter Kami Kamzik has a 4.38 ERA with 75 Ks in 76.2 innings (also good) and only 36 BBs (not great, but better), but also has allowed 85 hits and 10 home runs in 76.2 IP (.270 Batting average against). Oh and 15 wild pitches, so you can bet she's a rise ball pitcher like Cass, just not nearly as good.
ND's final two pitchers we may see have each pitched nearly 60 innings to uh, not great effect: Freshman Brianne Weiss has allowed a .300 batting average against (yikes) to go along with 66 K/35BB ratio in 59 innings and 8 home runs. That's somehow led to just a 4.15 ERA, although she's allowed 8 unearned runs. Senior Shannon Becker has a 4.86 ERA in 57.2 IP and is seemingly the only non-strikeout pitcher in the circle for ND: 35K/28BB in 57.2 IP, but again there's 64 hits against as well to go along with 8 home runs...so even though she's seemingly not a strikeout pitcher, she isn't getting weak contact either.
I'd also add that ND has allowed 72 stolen bases this year on 79 attempts, which is pretty awful. For comparison, Duke has allowed 11 stolen bases on 18 attempts. So that will help us beat ND Pitching, our hitters should be able to run wild once they get on the bases.
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In short, Duke's offense should be able to do serious damage on this ND pitching staff, and the pitching should be able to hold them off as long as they are careful with Amaral. They need to win all three of these to get back on track.
So I skipped last weekend's preview figuring Pitt was so terrible - they are - that Duke should dominate them and it would be a waste of time. Welp. So this week we get a slightly less bad opponent in Notre Dame (RPI #88). Notre Dame has given Duke some trouble over the last few years, taking single games in series even when Duke should have swept them, but this year's ND team has been worse than those teams, despite some expectations they could compete for a tourney spot. They DO have some reasonable wins - They're 5-15 against RPI top 50 teams with 2 against top 25 teams (both against #25 in the RPI Virginia) - so they can surprise and beat you, but Duke again SHOULD sweep them, as we have swept better opponents.
ND is coming off a weekend at VT where they got blown up (2 run rule losses in the sweep) and this should not be different. And unlike last weekend, this series is at home, not in a super cold weekend in Pitt, so Duke really has no excuse for not winning all 3 games (if not run ruling them).
ND on Offense:
Notre Dame hits .274/.363/.386 as a team, which isn't particularly good, even if it's not terrible. They don't hit a lot of home runs (27 on the year), and only have a single hitter with a slugging percentage over .430 and only two batters over .300 in batting average. That said, Notre Dame DOES have one really really good hitter: Sophomore Addison Amaral, who hits .386/.490/.630 with 24 walks and 7 Home runs against just 10 strikeouts. I wonder how many of those walks are intentional, because ND doesn't have a single other hitter with an OPS over .900 (Duke by comparison has 4, almost 5, and our offense hasn't been really elite this year). Duke pitching will want to avoid allowing Amaral to bat with runners on, because that's probably the most likely way Duke could lose any of these games.
I'd normally here highlight a few other hitters to look out for, but there really isn't much else in the ND Lineup. I guess there's sophomore Sydny Poeck, who is hitting .330/.444/.409 - not much pop there, but she can get on base a lot. ND's offense is again not as awful as say Pitt, mainly because there's a lot of meh behind Amaral and not a lot of utterly awful (every starter has an OPS above .600, which is not a good level -for comparison, Brooklinn Thomas isnt' clearing that level but she's getting close).
ND Pitching:
Notre Dame relies upon four pitchers, all of whom have ERAs in the fours, which is not good (Even with her struggles, Cass is at 3.29, Dani is at 2.9, and even Sophie is at 3.63). Most of these pitchers DO get strikeouts - 3 of their four starters average a strikeout or more per inning, which is very good - but also feature a lot of walks, hits, and home runs (My suspicion is ND is very rise ball heavy).
Their most used starter is Junior Micaela Kastor, who has pitched 90.1 innings at a 4.8 ERA, with 91 Strikeouts (good) to go with 57 walks (really bad, nearly 2/3 walks per inning), and 91 hits (also bad) and a .256 Batting average against with 15 home runs allowed. Yikes. #2 Starter Kami Kamzik has a 4.38 ERA with 75 Ks in 76.2 innings (also good) and only 36 BBs (not great, but better), but also has allowed 85 hits and 10 home runs in 76.2 IP (.270 Batting average against). Oh and 15 wild pitches, so you can bet she's a rise ball pitcher like Cass, just not nearly as good.
ND's final two pitchers we may see have each pitched nearly 60 innings to uh, not great effect: Freshman Brianne Weiss has allowed a .300 batting average against (yikes) to go along with 66 K/35BB ratio in 59 innings and 8 home runs. That's somehow led to just a 4.15 ERA, although she's allowed 8 unearned runs. Senior Shannon Becker has a 4.86 ERA in 57.2 IP and is seemingly the only non-strikeout pitcher in the circle for ND: 35K/28BB in 57.2 IP, but again there's 64 hits against as well to go along with 8 home runs...so even though she's seemingly not a strikeout pitcher, she isn't getting weak contact either.
I'd also add that ND has allowed 72 stolen bases this year on 79 attempts, which is pretty awful. For comparison, Duke has allowed 11 stolen bases on 18 attempts. So that will help us beat ND Pitching, our hitters should be able to run wild once they get on the bases.
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In short, Duke's offense should be able to do serious damage on this ND pitching staff, and the pitching should be able to hold them off as long as they are careful with Amaral. They need to win all three of these to get back on track.
This umpire is really inconsistent. Vega walked after taking a pitch that I think even Vega thought was strike 3 and then told gets a few low called strikes.
Thanks to an error and a steal it’s now second and third two outs for Duke
Edit: Duke doesn’t score anyway. 4-2 duke end 2
Thanks to an error and a steal it’s now second and third two outs for Duke
Edit: Duke doesn’t score anyway. 4-2 duke end 2
DoubleBlue
Member
Great throw by Jennings from centerfield to save the game, 5-4.
CameronBornAndBred
Well-known member
Duke - ND tied at 1-1 in the 4th.
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