Duke Men’s 2025-26 discussion

Not to go all conspirator, but the Arizona coach showcasing his guy Koa Peat over Nik is not a huge surprise. At least he turns to Nik when the game is on the line. :)
Just like yesterday, Nik ended up playing a ton of the second half after not much in the first. Unlike yesterday, these were not exactly "high leverage" minutes as the game was over by halftime. Team USA wins 120 - 64 to advance to the finals against Germany.

Nik finishes with 13 points, 3 rebs, 1 ast. He hit 3-5 2FGA and 2-4 3FGA. He is now hitting just over 42% of his 3s in this tournament (8-19). Worth noting that the FIBA 3 point line is almost exactly the same as the college line (a little bit shorter than the pro line).
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Not to go all conspirator, but the Arizona coach showcasing his guy Koa Peat over Nik is not a huge surprise. At least he turns to Nik when the game is on the line. :)
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing… Also, McCoy has looked good when he’s played but he’s had a tough time finding any minutes. I really want to see McCoy and Smith in the backcourt at the same time given they seem to be at/near the top of Duke’s 2026 wish list.
 
I think Darren Harris would be a starter or at least a key rotation piece on the vast majority of college basketball teams. And I hope he plays enough to want to come back to Duke as a junior. But it's hard to see him playing ahead of any of our other five perimeter options in 2025-26. Evans we've discussed ad nauseum, but I'll be shocked if he's not a starter. Same with Sarr. Khamenia seems very Knueppel-like and appears to be one of those guys that help teams win, plus him making the U19s portends good things for him. Again, hard to see Harris playing ahead of him. As Azzefkram points out, Cayden has a special bond with our best player, plus he's our only true PG, if that sort of thing matters. I strongly suspect people have been underselling him. And Foster is our most experienced player plus we're all hoping he's the second coming of junior Nolan Smith. Assuming that's a bit hyperbolic, while I'll be a little surprised if Caleb starts more than a handful of games, and not at all surprised if he's our 8th man, I'll be very surprised if he's not a key rotation piece (and well ahead of Darren Harris).

It's just such a crowded perimeter, making it an uphill struggle for Harris. I know nobody believes it's possible, but I do hope Coach Scheyer tries something at least resembling a 9-man rotation. And who knows, maybe Wilkins will be good enough to crash the party too (though for the same reasons as Harris, I think that's unlikely). It's an embarrassment of riches, really. I think we're seriously underranked in most of the too-early top 25s.
I agree with all this, but Caleb Foster doesn't have to make a Nolan Smith junior year leap to be a very productive starter on a championship team.

If he plays just marginally better than he did the last 14 games of last season or when he was 10-1 as our starting PG as a frosh, then he will be a very good player. I think that kind of marginal improvement at a minimum as a fully-healthy junior is very likely for him. But it's also possible that Cayden comes in better than expected (like Sion last year) and wins the job.

I agree with you on the 9-man rotation. I think most games all 6 of these perimeter guys will be playing 15-25mpg. But for those really competitive games and in the post-season tourneys, Jon will tighten it up to 7-8 guys as usual. Darren would seem to be outside that tight rotation but you never know.
 
I agree with all this, but Caleb Foster doesn't have to make a Nolan Smith junior year leap to be a very productive starter on a championship team.

If he plays just marginally better than he did the last 14 games of last season or when he was 10-1 as our starting PG as a frosh, then he will be a very good player. I think that kind of marginal improvement at a minimum as a fully-healthy junior is very likely for him. But it's also possible that Cayden comes in better than expected (like Sion last year) and wins the job.

I agree with you on the 9-man rotation. I think most games all 6 of these perimeter guys will be playing 15-25mpg. But for those really competitive games and in the post-season tourneys, Jon will tighten it up to 7-8 guys as usual. Darren would seem to be outside that tight rotation but you never know.
It's worth noting that if you add up the stretch of games he started as nominal PG in 2024 plus the last 14 games he played in 2025, Caleb Foster still only averaged 2.0 assists per game. It's possible but we really don't know if he has the chops to be a PG at this level. That's not to say he couldn't be a productive combo guard like Proctor was this past season, but at that point he's competing with Evans, Sarr, and Khamenia (and possibly Harris) for playing time, not just competing with Cayden Boozer.
 
It's worth noting that if you add up the stretch of games he started as nominal PG in 2024 plus the last 14 games he played in 2025, Caleb Foster still only averaged 2.0 assists per game. It's possible but we really don't know if he has the chops to be a PG at this level. That's not to say he couldn't be a productive combo guard like Proctor was this past season, but at that point he's competing with Evans, Sarr, and Khamenia (and possibly Harris) for playing time, not just competing with Cayden Boozer.

Over the last 14 games of the season, here are the per40 numbers for Sion and Caleb.

pts / reb / asst / to / stl

17.3 / 5.6 / 5.1 / 2.5 / 1.5

14.6 / 6.1 / 3.9 / 1.9 / 0.8

Want to guess who is who? Line 1 is Caleb.

Caleb averaged more points, assists, and steals per minute. So if we get that Caleb - or a marginal improvement - we have a solid lead guard. We don't need a Nolan Smith jump. A Wendell Moore junior-year jump would put him into an All-ACC conversation.

Speaking of Wendell, here were his sophomore per40 numbers before his breakout junior year:

14.1 / 6.9 / 3.9 / 2.9 / 1.8
 
Cam is likely going to be great but freshmen bigs rarely play more than 30mpg - do we think that the 10ish minutes left over at the 4 are going to be absorbed by a big lineup with Brown playing next to Ngomba (so that they can get 25mpg each) or do we think CJS will go small ball with Nik at the 4 for 10 mpg?

If Nik backs up Cam then Evans/Caleb/Dame/Cayden/Nik are splitting 130mpg which would really open the window for all 5 to be significant contributors - If Brown bogarts the back-up 4 minutes I think one of them is likely to fall to the fringe of the rotation
 
Cam is likely going to be great but freshmen bigs rarely play more than 30mpg - do we think that the 10ish minutes left over at the 4 are going to be absorbed by a big lineup with Brown playing next to Ngomba (so that they can get 25mpg each) or do we think CJS will go small ball with Nik at the 4 for 10 mpg?

If Nik backs up Cam then Evans/Caleb/Dame/Cayden/Nik are splitting 130mpg which would really open the window for all 5 to be significant contributors - If Brown bogarts the back-up 4 minutes I think one of them is likely to fall to the fringe of the rotation
It's a great question. My guess is that Maliq plays 15mpg at the 5 and 8-10mpg at the 4 backing up Cam. But those backup 4 minutes could also go to Nik - especially if he's not starting on the wing.
 
I have watched all of Teams USA's FIBA games to date, with the just gold medal game against Germany to go.

While Team USA players (such as Tyran Stokes, Caleb Holt, and AJ Dybantsa) have been even more efficient offensively, Team USA has bene more effective and has exhibited more intelligent team play with Khamenia on the court, at least in terms of my potentially biased eye test.

I tried to see if the players' plus/minus stats to date back up my eye test, and here's what I came up with in terms of the team's plus/minus per 40 minutes with each player on the court. Note the all the caveats about plus/minus in a limited sample size apply.

Plus/Minus per 40 minutes

+70.4 Brandon McCoy in 50 minutes
+57.3 Nik Khamenia in 97 minutes
+51.1 Caleb Holt in 101 minutes
+41.9 Daniel Jacobson in 84 minutes
+41.7 Koa Peat in 115 minutes
+40.0 Mikel Brown, Jr. in 138 minutes
+40.0 Tyran Stokes in 88 minutes
+37.3 Jordan Smith, Jr. in 107 minutes
+31.6 JJ Mandaquit in 101 minutes
+30.0 Jasper Johnson in 92 minutes
+29.4 Morez Johnson, Jr. in 106 minutes
+27.1 AJ Dybantsa in 121 minutes

Franky, I don't understand why McCoy has played the fewest minutes on the team when he is second in efficiency per 48 minutes after just Stokes and by far the highest in plus/minus per minute. McCoy is averaging 16 points, 5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 3 steals per 25 minutes play. While he 0-5 on threes and just 4 of 8 from the free throw line, he has is 14 of 15 two point shots.
 
I have watched all of Teams USA's FIBA games to date, with the just gold medal game against Germany to go.

While Team USA players (such as Tyran Stokes, Caleb Holt, and AJ Dybantsa) have been even more efficient offensively, Team USA has bene more effective and has exhibited more intelligent team play with Khamenia on the court, at least in terms of my potentially biased eye test.

I tried to see if the players' plus/minus stats to date back up my eye test, and here's what I came up with in terms of the team's plus/minus per 40 minutes with each player on the court. Note the all the caveats about plus/minus in a limited sample size apply.

Plus/Minus per 40 minutes

+70.4 Brandon McCoy in 50 minutes
+57.3 Nik Khamenia in 97 minutes
+51.1 Caleb Holt in 101 minutes
+41.9 Daniel Jacobson in 84 minutes
+41.7 Koa Peat in 115 minutes
+40.0 Mikel Brown, Jr. in 138 minutes
+40.0 Tyran Stokes in 88 minutes
+37.3 Jordan Smith, Jr. in 107 minutes
+31.6 JJ Mandaquit in 101 minutes
+30.0 Jasper Johnson in 92 minutes
+29.4 Morez Johnson, Jr. in 106 minutes
+27.1 AJ Dybantsa in 121 minutes

Franky, I don't understand why McCoy has played the fewest minutes on the team when he is second in efficiency per 48 minutes after just Stokes and by far the highest in plus/minus per minute. McCoy is averaging 16 points, 5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 3 steals per 25 minutes play. While he 0-5 on threes and just 4 of 8 from the free throw line, he has is 14 of 15 two point shots.
It's an ultra small sample size but I appreciate the numbers because it backs up my theory that AJ Dybansa doesn't lift the players around him and will perform more like an Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper at BYU this season.
 
Kharmenia was a total gunner in the fourth quarter today, tossing up a shot pretty much every time he touched the ball. His three ball looks fine. He will probably hang out in the corners on offense, looking for the opportunity threes.

Holt looked really good to me (Team USA)
 
It's an ultra small sample size but I appreciate the numbers because it backs up my theory that AJ Dybansa doesn't lift the players around him and will perform more like an Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper at BYU this season.
I think he will be much better than Bailey. First of all he plays defense. Otherwise, he takes better shots and makes more of them. BYU will be very good next year with a much better supporting cast than Bailey/Harper had.

Harper did struggle with an injury last season and I think he does much more to help a team than Bailey.
 
I think he will be much better than Bailey. First of all he plays defense. Otherwise, he takes better shots and makes more of them. BYU will be very good next year with a much better supporting cast than Bailey/Harper had.

Harper did struggle with an injury last season and I think he does much more to help a team than Bailey.
Yeah, I think BYU will be better than Rutgers. And agree he will be a better player than Bailey. I'm just not convinced Dybansa will lift a team like Flagg and Boozer.
 
I have watched all of Teams USA's FIBA games to date, with the just gold medal game against Germany to go.

While Team USA players (such as Tyran Stokes, Caleb Holt, and AJ Dybantsa) have been even more efficient offensively, Team USA has bene more effective and has exhibited more intelligent team play with Khamenia on the court, at least in terms of my potentially biased eye test.

I tried to see if the players' plus/minus stats to date back up my eye test, and here's what I came up with in terms of the team's plus/minus per 40 minutes with each player on the court. Note the all the caveats about plus/minus in a limited sample size apply.

Plus/Minus per 40 minutes

+70.4 Brandon McCoy in 50 minutes
+57.3 Nik Khamenia in 97 minutes
+51.1 Caleb Holt in 101 minutes
+41.9 Daniel Jacobson in 84 minutes
+41.7 Koa Peat in 115 minutes
+40.0 Mikel Brown, Jr. in 138 minutes
+40.0 Tyran Stokes in 88 minutes
+37.3 Jordan Smith, Jr. in 107 minutes
+31.6 JJ Mandaquit in 101 minutes
+30.0 Jasper Johnson in 92 minutes
+29.4 Morez Johnson, Jr. in 106 minutes
+27.1 AJ Dybantsa in 121 minutes

Franky, I don't understand why McCoy has played the fewest minutes on the team when he is second in efficiency per 48 minutes after just Stokes and by far the highest in plus/minus per minute. McCoy is averaging 16 points, 5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 3 steals per 25 minutes play. While he 0-5 on threes and just 4 of 8 from the free throw line, he has is 14 of 15 two point shots.
Thanks for some really good info.

I was a bit shocked when I saw what a game Canada gave the USA. What were they able to do that other opponents have not done vs the USA team?
 
Based on what I've seen of his play at these U19 World Cup games, Dybansa reminds me a lot of RJ Barrett. He's clearly talented, a gifted athlete, and a high-energy guy who plays hard on both ends. It just seems that when he gets the ball, his first instinct is not to survey the floor in search of the best offensive opportunity for his team, but to reflexively go into takeover mode and look for a way that he can score. I don't mean that to sound like I'm criticizing him for being selfish, because it's likely that he's accustomed to being expected by his teammates to be the alpha dog/lead scorer. Without significant adjustments in his current approach, however, I'm not sure he would be a good fit for the kind of team that Scheyer like to build.
 
Over the last 14 games of the season, here are the per40 numbers for Sion and Caleb.

pts / reb / asst / to / stl

17.3 / 5.6 / 5.1 / 2.5 / 1.5

14.6 / 6.1 / 3.9 / 1.9 / 0.8

Want to guess who is who? Line 1 is Caleb.

Caleb averaged more points, assists, and steals per minute. So if we get that Caleb - or a marginal improvement - we have a solid lead guard. We don't need a Nolan Smith jump. A Wendell Moore junior-year jump would put him into an All-ACC conversation.

Speaking of Wendell, here were his sophomore per40 numbers before his breakout junior year:

14.1 / 6.9 / 3.9 / 2.9 / 1.8
Which of these two players got the majority of his minutes at garbage time?
 
Which of these two players got the majority of his minutes at garbage time?
Haters gonna hate. Isn't that what the kids say?

There were some garbage minutes, but there were plenty of first half minutes too. There's a reason why Jon had him 6th/7th in the rotation for the tourney ahead of Isaiah and Mason. He also shot 10-20 from 3 (50%) during this stretch. Not too shabby.

I can't remember a Duke player who caught more undeserved negativity from certain fans than Caleb. The kid was still rehabbing from a major injury in the pool last summer. And he came on strong late in the year. Plenty of reason to be optimistic.
 
USA 120, New Zealand 64 (recap, box score, highlights, full replay)

The Americans closed out a 120-64 victory, boasting six players with double-digit scoring figures. Nik Khamenia had a big second half, ending with 13 points and 3 rebounds.

“We didn’t come here to get a silver medal or bronze medal, we came here to win gold,” Khamenia said. “That’s the only thing on our minds.”

USA Basketball will play for its ninth gold medal in the FIBA U19 Men’s World Cup on Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET against Germany.



I think the haka is an amazing tradition and very cool demonstration of culture. Always gives me goosebumps.

In case anyone missed it, Team New Zealand's pregame performance of the haka is in the full replay video below. Start around the 7:30 mark.


The Germans are led by Texas Tech rising soph PG Christian Anderson (who is from Atlanta but has a dad who played pro ball in Germany for many years). He is a dynamite shooter and scorer who put up 27 points with 5 rebs and 6 asst (and 8 TOs) in the semis.

I know other collapses came later in the tournament, but I'm still a little surprised that Florida was able to beat a Texas Tech team with Christian Anderson, JT Toppin, and Darrion Williams in the Elite Eight. Keep in mind that the Red Raiders coach, Grant McCasland, is one of Tommy Lloyd's assistants in this U19 tournament.

Anderson is averaging 17.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists here. Germany's roster has two more power conference players: 7-0 center Eric Reibe, an incoming freshman at UConn averaging 15 points and 5 rebounds, and 6-9 forward Hannes Steinbach, tied with Anderson with 17.2 points per game, and leading the U19 tournament with an average of 14 boards. He and Team USA's JJ Mandaquit will be freshmen at Washington this fall. There's also 6-11 post Amon Dörries, soon to attend Bucknell.

As noted above, the gold medal game is Sunday at 2pm ET. FIBA has a livestream.
 
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