Duke Men’s 2025-26 discussion

[Kedsy]

Thanks for researching. This was exactly my point. For Evans to have a special season, he will need to shoot a lot more 2s. A good defender will just crowd you at the line and make your shots more difficult if you can't keep them honest by attacking the close out. I believe this is one reason why Isaiah's shooting % fell off late in the year.

Isaiah's shooting percentage didn't really drop off late in the year. He shot 42.4% from three in the last 5 regular season games and 40.0% from three in the ACC tournament. His percentage didn't drop off until the NCAA tournament, in which he hardly played.

I believe his poor shooting in the tournament was a lot more related to his lack of playing time than it was to the defenses catching up to him, and here's why:

Evans played 10 or fewer minutes in 14 games this season, and he shot 15.8% from three in those 14 games.

Evans played more than 10 minutes in 22 games this season, and he shot 45.4% from three in those 22 games.

It's possible this is a chicken-and-egg issue, in that it's possible that he appeared "off" in the 14 games and that's why Coach Scheyer didn't play him more. But since he only took two or fewer threes in 13 of those 14 games (and it's probably hard to tell if he's "off" after watching just two shots), I think the more likely explanation is Isaiah needs some time to get going so when he doesn't play much he can't get in the groove.

(Admittedly it's true he went 0 for 5 from three in the first NCAA tournament game in which he played 20 minutes against Mt St Mary's, though that 0 for 5 is included in the 22 games mentioned above and he still shot 45%, plus also I find it hard to believe that it was Mt St Mary's who magically found the formula to stopping Isaiah Evans.)

Ultimately, I think the fact that there weren't many (or any) starters in the NCAA this season with similar shot selection to Isaiah Evans does not mean it's a bad idea but rather because there aren't many (or any) players like him. Can you guess how many power conference players other than Isaiah Evans took 10+ three attempts per 40 minutes, had an eFG% of 60%+ and are 6'4" or taller? All right, you don't have to guess. The answer is zero. Just Isaiah.

You say that good defenses will just run him off the line, but they weren't able to do it this past year, and the way Duke ran plays with multiple staggered off-ball screens for him (along with his height and his very quick release) it's not as easy as it sounds to just run him off the line. If Evans can play 25+ minutes, and still get 10+ three attempts per 40 with an eFG of 60%+, then what's not to like? Why would he "have to" shoot more twos?

 

[SkyBrickey]

Isaiah's shooting percentage didn't really drop off late in the year. He shot 42.4% from three in the last 5 regular season games and 40.0% from three in the ACC tournament. His percentage didn't drop off until the NCAA tournament, in which he hardly played.

I believe his poor shooting in the tournament was a lot more related to his lack of playing time than it was to the defenses catching up to him, and here's why:

Evans played 10 or fewer minutes in 14 games this season, and he shot 15.8% from three in those 14 games.

Evans played more than 10 minutes in 22 games this season, and he shot 45.4% from three in those 22 games.

It's possible this is a chicken-and-egg issue, in that it's possible that he appeared "off" in the 14 games and that's why Coach Scheyer didn't play him more. But since he only took two or fewer threes in 13 of those 14 games (and it's probably hard to tell if he's "off" after watching just two shots), I think the more likely explanation is Isaiah needs some time to get going so when he doesn't play much he can't get in the groove.

(Admittedly it's true he went 0 for 5 from three in the first NCAA tournament game in which he played 20 minutes against Mt St Mary's, though that 0 for 5 is included in the 22 games mentioned above and he still shot 45%, plus also I find it hard to believe that it was Mt St Mary's who magically found the formula to stopping Isaiah Evans.)

Ultimately, I think the fact that there weren't many (or any) starters in the NCAA this season with similar shot selection to Isaiah Evans does not mean it's a bad idea but rather because there aren't many (or any) players like him. Can you guess how many power conference players other than Isaiah Evans took 10+ three attempts per 40 minutes, had an eFG% of 60%+ and are 6'4" or taller? All right, you don't have to guess. The answer is zero. Just Isaiah.

You say that good defenses will just run him off the line, but they weren't able to do it this past year, and the way Duke ran plays with multiple staggered off-ball screens for him (along with his height and his very quick release) it's not as easy as it sounds to just run him off the line. If Evans can play 25+ minutes, and still get 10+ three attempts per 40 with an eFG of 60%+, then what's not to like? Why would he "have to" shoot more twos?

Ok, lots of good stuff here. A lot I agree with. It wasn't really until the last 7 games of the season when Isaiah slumped from 3 - 5/17, 29%. Some of that might be limited PT as you point out but it's still a bit of a yellow flag.

Your overall argument rests on Isaiah being one of one as a basketball player - shooting 81% of his shots as 3s and growing into a star player role. I don't see any precedent for that with former Duke shooting stars or any other shooting stars for that matter - assuming we are hoping for more than Reyne Smith who just went undrafted.

Here are a few numbers from last season. Kon (55%), Koby Brea (68%), Tre Johnson (43%), Clayton Jr (58%). The tops I could find quickly among NBA top players - Steph Curry (62%). Klay Thompson (63%). Buddy Hield (69%).

I think Koby Brea's year would be a good outcome for Isaiah's sophomore year. 68% of his shots were 3s. 43% makes. 11.6/3.2/1.3. Rewarded with the 41st pick in the draft - Isaiah would get drafted higher due to youth and length. But if Isaiah wants to be a star player and really move up the draft board, I think he needs to show even more diversity in his game than Koby Brea did at Kentucky last year.

 

[Kedsy]

Ok, lots of good stuff here. A lot I agree with. It wasn't really until the last 7 games of the season when Isaiah slumped from 3 - 5/17, 29%. Some of that might be limited PT as you point out but it's still a bit of a yellow flag.

Maybe. I'm more inclined to think it was one bad game, which happens to all shooters from time to time. He shot 0 for 5 against Mt St Mary's (again, not a defensive juggernaut; KenPom ranked their defense #186), and 41.7% in the other six games.

So I don't think it was any kind of flag, but maybe that's just me. Maybe you're right that his offense needs to be more diversified to be a star. Personally, I think his high school record suggests he has that in him. But, again, moneyball theory would suggest that if he shoots a high enough percentage on a high enough number of three attempts, that it's not necessary to shoot more twos.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Maybe. I'm more inclined to think it was one bad game, which happens to all shooters from time to time. He shot 0 for 5 against Mt St Mary's (again, not a defensive juggernaut; KenPom ranked their defense #186), and 41.7% in the other six games.

So I don't think it was any kind of flag, but maybe that's just me. Maybe you're right that his offense needs to be more diversified to be a star. Personally, I think his high school record suggests he has that in him. But, again, moneyball theory would suggest that if he shoots a high enough percentage on a high enough number of three attempts, that it's not necessary to shoot more twos.

JJ Redick is the best shooter I've ever seen at Duke. Here are the percent of his shots that are 3s plus his ppg for all 4 years.

Fr - 66%, 15.0
So - 63%, 15.9
Jr - 61%, 21.8
Sr - 51%, 26.8, NPOY

He diversified his game by shooting more 2s every single year. And his game really peaked his senior year when he diversified to almost a 50/50 split. Isaiah is starting from a much different place at 81%, but I think his path to being a star has to be in becoming a more multidimensional scoring threat just like JJ.

Andre Dawkins by contrast got less diversified in each of his 4 years: 70%, 72%, 74%, 80%. Really interesting that he and JJ started in a similar place as freshmen but finished their careers as very different players.

 

[dlmzzz]

[Redick] diversified his game by shooting more 2s every single year. And his game really peaked his senior year when he diversified to almost a 50/50 split. Isaiah is starting from a much different place at 81%, but I think [Evan’s] path to being a star has to be in becoming a more multidimensional scoring threat just like JJ.

For Evans to become a star of the team, I agree. To me, being the star means you are often the guy with the ball in his hands as the shot clock winds down, and you have to get some shot, any shot, up.

I think(?) that there is usually more than one person on the team who ends up in that situation regularly. I assume Cam will be in that role, but there is definitely room for someone else to step up too. It might be Evans, but I don’t think it has to be for him to have a starter/finisher level role on the team.

 

[Kedsy]

JJ Redick is the best shooter I've ever seen at Duke. Here are the percent of his shots that are 3s plus his ppg for all 4 years.

Fr - 66%, 15.0
So - 63%, 15.9
Jr - 61%, 21.8
Sr - 51%, 26.8, NPOY

He diversified his game by shooting more 2s every single year. And his game really peaked his senior year when he diversified to almost a 50/50 split. Isaiah is starting from a much different place at 81%, but I think his path to being a star has to be in becoming a more multidimensional scoring threat just like JJ.

Andre Dawkins by contrast got less diversified in each of his 4 years: 70%, 72%, 74%, 80%. Really interesting that he and JJ started in a similar place as freshmen but finished their careers as very different players.

JJ's senior year, he clearly shot more twos (as a percentage of total shots). His first three years were all fairly similar in that regard. I don't think we can say how significant a difference 61% is from 66% for a guy who took a total of 361 shot attempts as a freshman, without further mathematical analysis. I'm not even sure whether it would qualify as a trend (although I suppose it might). But you're obviously right that when his mix moved toward 50%, he became NPOY. Though we don't know how much of his rise to superstardom was because of shot mix and how much was due to other improvements (of which there were many).

FWIW, Duke as a team took threes as 33.9% of its shots when JJ was a freshman, 35.3% when he was a senior. Duke when Andre was a freshman took threes as 32.9% of its shots, 39.7% as a senior. Duke as a team took threes as 44.6% of its shots during Isaiah's freshman season. I'm not sure exactly what the best mathematical analysis is to compare, e.g., JJ's freshman season and Isaiah's freshman season, but I wonder if you take the team difference into account how different JJ's freshman 66% is from Isaiah's freshman 81%?

For example, this math isn't particularly rigorous, but JJ's 65.9% as a frosh is 39.2 percentage points higher than the rest of the team's 26.7%; while Isaiah's 81.4% is 40.0 percentage points higher than the rest of the team's 41.4%. Almost the same delta. Obviously this reflects many factors, including how many guys on the team were capable three-point shooters, but it also probably reflects coaching preference and offensive system used. I'm sure there's a better way to compare, but I don't feel like figuring out what it is.

 

[SkyBrickey]

JJ's senior year, he clearly shot more twos (as a percentage of total shots). His first three years were all fairly similar in that regard. I don't think we can say how significant a difference 61% is from 66% for a guy who took a total of 361 shot attempts as a freshman, without further mathematical analysis. I'm not even sure whether it would qualify as a trend (although I suppose it might). But you're obviously right that when his mix moved toward 50%, he became NPOY. Though we don't know how much of his rise to superstardom was because of shot mix and how much was due to other improvements (of which there were many).

FWIW, Duke as a team took threes as 33.9% of its shots when JJ was a freshman, 35.3% when he was a senior. Duke when Andre was a freshman took threes as 32.9% of its shots, 39.7% as a senior. Duke as a team took threes as 44.6% of its shots during Isaiah's freshman season. I'm not sure exactly what the best mathematical analysis is to compare, e.g., JJ's freshman season and Isaiah's freshman season, but I wonder if you take the team difference into account how different JJ's freshman 66% is from Isaiah's freshman 81%?

For example, this math isn't particularly rigorous, but JJ's 65.9% as a frosh is 39.2 percentage points higher than the rest of the team's 26.7%; while Isaiah's 81.4% is 40.0 percentage points higher than the rest of the team's 41.4%. Almost the same delta. Obviously this reflects many factors, including how many guys on the team were capable three-point shooters, but it also probably reflects coaching preference and offensive system used. I'm sure there's a better way to compare, but I don't feel like figuring out what it is.

Yeah, I get your point on more 3s are being taken overall now.

Isaiah's elite skill - over Dawkins and arguably even Redick - is his ability to quickly elevate and shoot accurately with a high release point. It makes him very difficult to defend on the perimeter.

I think there's a scenario where he still shoots 70-80% of his shots from 3, makes 40% and scores 12-14ppg in 25mpg.

But if Sarr is as good as we think he is and Nik comes in as a better passer, rebounder and potentially defender - and shoots 36-40% from 3 - then Isaiah could find himself in a similar spot this year as last year behind other guys - if he doesn't expand his game. If Nik is posting more assists, more rebounds, and scoring as efficiently, then he will play ahead of him. Nik projects to be a stat sheet stuffer and there's a lot of value in that.

It doesn't mean Isaiah won't play, but it could mean he's more of an 18mpg guy than a 25mpg guy. Expanding his game to drive and get more 2s at the rim would also mean Isaiah's moving the defense and opening up more good shots for others. Hope we see this growth in his game.

 

[tommy]

JJ's senior year, he clearly shot more twos (as a percentage of total shots). His first three years were all fairly similar in that regard. I don't think we can say how significant a difference 61% is from 66% for a guy who took a total of 361 shot attempts as a freshman, without further mathematical analysis. I'm not even sure whether it would qualify as a trend (although I suppose it might). But you're obviously right that when his mix moved toward 50%, he became NPOY. Though we don't know how much of his rise to superstardom was because of shot mix and how much was due to other improvements (of which there were many).

FWIW, Duke as a team took threes as 33.9% of its shots when JJ was a freshman, 35.3% when he was a senior. Duke when Andre was a freshman took threes as 32.9% of its shots, 39.7% as a senior. Duke as a team took threes as 44.6% of its shots during Isaiah's freshman season. I'm not sure exactly what the best mathematical analysis is to compare, e.g., JJ's freshman season and Isaiah's freshman season, but I wonder if you take the team difference into account how different JJ's freshman 66% is from Isaiah's freshman 81%?

For example, this math isn't particularly rigorous, but JJ's 65.9% as a frosh is 39.2 percentage points higher than the rest of the team's 26.7%; while Isaiah's 81.4% is 40.0 percentage points higher than the rest of the team's 41.4%. Almost the same delta. Obviously this reflects many factors, including how many guys on the team were capable three-point shooters, but it also probably reflects coaching preference and offensive system used. I'm sure there's a better way to compare, but I don't feel like figuring out what it is.

Youre right Kedsy. “coaching preference and offensive system used” is basically the same as how I would’ve termed it, which is, “the game has changed.” And it has, since JJ played at Duke. Just as in the NBA, by design, teams are shooting higher and higher percentages of threes and on threes. So one would expect a late model version of a sharpshooter like Isiah to have more threes in his overall diet than the classic JJ did.

 

[jv001]

Looking at the roster for the upcoming season, we have several players that could make an impact on our season. As many have mentioned, teams don't necessarily have a true point-guard on their starting lineup. Last season, I think Cooper and Kon came closest to being a point-guard. Sion maybe. This year, it might play out that way. Cayden is probably the closest we have in that regard. Cam, Patrick, Brown, Sarr, Isaiah, Nik, Caleb, Cayden and Harris are the nine players that will see significant playing time. Looking at Sky's post it seems Cam, Patrick, Brown, Sarr, Isaiah, Nik may get sure fire minutes. But you can't rule out Caleb, Cayden and Harris entering the picture. Personally, I think Caleb and Cayden will fight it out for the 7th spot in the rotation. If Patrick and Maliq are healthy, they're playing. I can see Jon using Patrick and Maliq together at times. Probably not for big minutes but when defense is really needed. I'm basing all this on what Sky and others have said about Nik and what talent evaluators have said about Sarr and Isaiah. No comps just my thoughts.

GoDuke!

 

[brevity]

Nik Khamenia and the U19 team play their semifinal game against New Zealand at 2pm ET.

The Kiwi roster features two Division I players. Oscar Goodman, a 6-9 forward who shares a name with the mob lawyer turned Las Vegas mayor, bet on himself and enrolled at Michigan last January. He'll start play in the fall. Then there's 7-0 center Julius Halaifonua, who UNC pursued last summer in their desperate search for a center, after they struck out with every big-name transfer portal option. He chose Georgetown instead, and will be a sophomore when the Hoyas visit Chapel Hill in early December.

FIBA has a preview article and the free YouTube livestream:

Slovenia faces Germany in the earlier semifinal, which starts soon, at 11am ET. You can watch that here.

 

[FastBreak]

I think the thing that should give people optimism for Caleb is after his minutes bottomed out, he played more in the post-season and played well.

Jon really deserves credit for getting Caleb back on track and giving him the opportunity to prove it on the court. Caleb deserves credit for continuing to be ready and play hard.

I dont know what next season looks like, but the opportunity will be there for Caleb to compete for the starting job.

Not sure if it predicts anything but Caleb’s upper body is looking Sion like in recent pictures on DBB social media.

 

[azzefkram]

The comps being tossed around only work if you ignore all the things that make them not work.

The perimeter is the big question mark for this team. My guess that the spectrum for starting, going from sure thing to I'd be flabbergasted, is as follows:
Isaiah, Caleb, Dame, Cayden, Nik, Darren, Sebastian

Normally, I would have Nik ahead of Cayden but Cayden connection with Duke's best player is probably a really big deal. I would be shocked if anyone on the team will be in the same area code when it comes to getting Cameron the ball in the spots he loves. If Cayden can shoot and defend, I might be too low on him. I also suspect that Nik may be more of a 4 than a 3 defensively.

I have a sneaking suspicion I am too low on Darren. My eye tells me that the players ahead of him are better, but I am not sure why he would stick around to be third off the bench in a 3-man perimeter rotation.

 

[JasonEvans]

Nik Khamenia and the U19 team play their semifinal game against New Zealand at 2pm ET.

Slovenia faces Germany in the earlier semifinal, which starts soon, at 11am ET. You can watch that here.

Germany won by 10. The Germans are led by Texas Tech rising soph PG Christian Anderson (who is from Atlanta but has a dad who played pro ball in Germany for many years). He is a dynamite shooter and scorer who put up 27 points with 5 rebs and 6 asst (and 8 TOs) in the semis.

 

[stickdog]

This game was determined by the officiating crew. USA shot a couple dozen more free throws than Canada and I don't believe they were warranted. Nobody cares about these games really, but Team Canada has a lot to be proud of.

The turnover margin was also a huge factor.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Looking at the roster for the upcoming season, we have several players that could make an impact on our season. As many have mentioned, teams don't necessarily have a true point-guard on their starting lineup. Last season, I think Cooper and Kon came closest to being a point-guard. Sion maybe. This year, it might play out that way. Cayden is probably the closest we have in that regard. Cam, Patrick, Brown, Sarr, Isaiah, Nik, Caleb, Cayden and Harris are the nine players that will see significant playing time. Looking at Sky's post it seems Cam, Patrick, Brown, Sarr, Isaiah, Nik may get sure fire minutes. But you can't rule out Caleb, Cayden and Harris entering the picture. Personally, I think Caleb and Cayden will fight it out for the 7th spot in the rotation. If Patrick and Maliq are healthy, they're playing. I can see Jon using Patrick and Maliq together at times. Probably not for big minutes but when defense is really needed. I'm basing all this on what Sky and others have said about Nik and what talent evaluators have said about Sarr and Isaiah. No comps just my thoughts.

GoDuke!

No, that was not the intention of my post. I think Caleb and Cayden will battle it out to be our primary ball handler - with the likely nod to Caleb. I think Dame will start. And I think Isaiah and Nik will compete for that second starting wing job.

But my confidence level is not super high on any of that and I think Darren could be battling for one of the two starting wing jobs too. It's also not impossible that Sarr plays some PG or Foster moves offball and starts at the 2 like Proctor this past year - though I don't think either scenario is likely.

I don't think we've ever had six guys so talented battling for 3 starting jobs. RSCI is not perfect but it's directionally accurate. Here were their rankings.

Foster (17)
Evans (16)
Harris (35)
Khamenia (16)
Cayden (19)
Sarr (NR)

Dame wasn't ranked, but if he'd come through the US system with the way he's being talked up as a lottery pick next year, he would be somewhere in the 5-15 range. That's just an outrageous amount of perimeter talent for any one school and makes it very tough to project minutes.

 

[Kedsy]

Dame wasn't ranked, but if he'd come through the US system with the way he's being talked up as a lottery pick next year, he would be somewhere in the 5-15 range. That's just an outrageous amount of perimeter talent for any one school and makes it very tough to project minutes.

Dame Sarr was actually ranked #81 by RSCI, though obviously that’s meaningless since he was unranked by 3 of the 4 services only because he played overseas. FWIW, he was ranked #17 by on3.

But I agree with your overall point that we have a lot of perimeter talent.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Dame Sarr was actually ranked #81 by RSCI, though obviously that’s meaningless since he was unranked by 3 of the 4 services only because he played overseas. FWIW, he was ranked #17 by on3.

But I agree with your overall point that we have a lot of perimeter talent.

Yeah, it's analogous to Khaman being ranked #51 last year - because all the services didn't rank him - when we knew he was a top-15 recruit.

It's tempting to look at that list and dismiss Darren Harris as the odd man out ranked 35. But when you look at the ratings for his class, you see Thomas Sorber (the 15th pick in the draft) just behind him and Jase Richardson and Lebaron Philbon just ahead of him. Stars do emerge ranked in the RSCI 30s...

 

[JasonEvans]

Halftime and Team USA is beating the brakes off of New Zealand in the semi-finals. The score is 55-26.

In a very strange move after Nik played almost the entire final 10 minutes of a tense back-and-forth game with Canada yesterday, the coach has barely played him in today's blowout. Nik has gotten just 4 mins of playing time in the first half and has missed both his shots (1 2FGA, 1 3 FGA). Hope he gets more run in the 2nd half.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Halftime and Team USA is beating the brakes off of New Zealand in the semi-finals. The score is 55-26.

In a very strange move after Nik played almost the entire final 10 minutes of a tense back-and-forth game with Canada yesterday, the coach has barely played him in today's blowout. Nik has gotten just 4 mins of playing time in the first half and has missed both his shots (1 2FGA, 1 3 FGA). Hope he gets more run in the 2nd half.

Not to go all conspirator, but the Arizona coach showcasing his guy Koa Peat over Nik is not a huge surprise. At least he turns to Nik when the game is on the line.

 

[Kedsy]

Yeah, it's analogous to Khaman being ranked #51 last year - because all the services didn't rank him - when we knew he was a top-15 recruit.

It's tempting to look at that list and dismiss Darren Harris as the odd man out ranked 35. But when you look at the ratings for his class, you see Thomas Sorber (the 15th pick in the draft) just behind him and Jase Richardson and Lebaron Philbon just ahead of him. Stars do emerge ranked in the RSCI 30s...

I think Darren Harris would be a starter or at least a key rotation piece on the vast majority of college basketball teams. And I hope he plays enough to want to come back to Duke as a junior. But it's hard to see him playing ahead of any of our other five perimeter options in 2025-26. Evans we've discussed ad nauseum, but I'll be shocked if he's not a starter. Same with Sarr. Khamenia seems very Knueppel-like and appears to be one of those guys that help teams win, plus him making the U19s portends good things for him. Again, hard to see Harris playing ahead of him. As Azzefkram points out, Cayden has a special bond with our best player, plus he's our only true PG, if that sort of thing matters. I strongly suspect people have been underselling him. And Foster is our most experienced player plus we're all hoping he's the second coming of junior Nolan Smith. Assuming that's a bit hyperbolic, while I'll be a little surprised if Caleb starts more than a handful of games, and not at all surprised if he's our 8th man, I'll be very surprised if he's not a key rotation piece (and well ahead of Darren Harris).

It's just such a crowded perimeter, making it an uphill struggle for Harris. I know nobody believes it's possible, but I do hope Coach Scheyer tries something at least resembling a 9-man rotation. And who knows, maybe Wilkins will be good enough to crash the party too (though for the same reasons as Harris, I think that's unlikely). It's an embarrassment of riches, really. I think we're seriously underranked in most of the too-early top 25s.