For Duke, Isaiah had 186 points from three pointers out of 246 points overall (75.6%). No denying that's the profile of a specialist. But far as I can gather, in his senior year of high school, he had 495 points from threes out of 904 points. That's still a lot of threes, but it's only 54.8% of his total points, which is in line with Soph JJ Redick (51.9%), Frosh Gary Trent (54.3%), Frosh AJ Griffin (52.6%), and Frosh Jared McCain (50.8%). Certainly it's a valid question whether those skills can transfer to college, but he obviously could score in other ways than three pointers as a senior in high school for an NC state champion.
Duke Men’s 2025-26 discussion
- Thread starter goFurman
- Start date
SkyBrickey
Member
HS is a very different game for these guys. I'm sure Andre Dawkins and Taylor King and Joey Baker all scored lots of 2s in HS too.
Someone, maybe you, posted his 3.5apg in HS. That's a good number for a guard/wing recruit and I think is even a better reason for some optimism around Isaiah expanding his game.
Yes, it was me. Evans was a completely different type of player in high school than in his one year of college. Whether that's because he was incapable of bringing his high school game to college or because that's what Duke's coaching staff asked him to do, we have no way of knowing. I suspect the latter, and you appear to lean toward the former, but there's no way to prove it, one way or the other.
SkyBrickey
Member
I just don't think you can assume too much from HS. Taylor King was a prolific scorer out in California. Only 1,110 of his 3,216 career HS points (34.5%) of his points were from 3. But in his college career 59% of his points came from 3 and he really struggled to produce at Duke and then Villanova.
It doesn't always translate, but let's hope it does for Isaiah. I'm not leaning one way or another. I won't be surprised either way.
I've posted more than once that Isaiah and Caleb are keys to Duke having a FF type team this season. There are concerns from some very good posters questioning Evans ability to be more than a hot-hand 2-point shooter. I think this is based on how Isaiah was used last season. As for Caleb, I see concerns on how he can be a player that can create for others and his bad FT shooting. I think both players will be better this season in the negative parts of their games. If I were a betting person, I'd put more $$$$$ on Isaiah because 1) he was a freshmen last season and 2) he at least got some looks from NBA people. Caleb on the other hand, 1) was a sophomore and didn't show much improvement last season until the end of the season, 2) I didn't see any interest from NBA people. And I guess I'd also throw in my own eye test on both players.
GoDuke!
GoDuke!
DukieTiger
Member
Regarding Caleb, I ran a filter on Duke players with comparable roles (more than 1/3 of team's minutes, more than 15% usage, more than 15% assist rate, more than 50 threes attempted - all relatively arbitrary, I acknowledge).
There have been 38 players with individual seasons like this since 2008 (including Caleb last year).
Caleb's 2025 season ranks...
- 31st in Offensive Rating
- 27th in EFG
- 27th in Assist Rate
- 26th in Turnover Rate
- 36th in Free Throw Percentage
- 38th in at-the-rim field goal percentage
So yeah, I think the concerns about offensive creation ability and efficiency.
That said, I do see a few guys who give reason for hope that there can be improvement over time.
- At the rim: He actually shot a much better percentage as a freshman (55% vs 45%).
- Assists and Turnovers: His closest comps here are Nolan Smith (pre 2010), Jeremy Roach and Wendell Moore (pre 2022). Nolan and Wendell in particular, became much better distributors as upperclassmen.
- Free Throw Shooting: Jeremy Roach went from a 67% FT shooter as a freshman to an 84% shooter as a senior at Duke. Improvement can happen.
- How much of this was just in his head last year?
- How was his development impacted by his injury last offseason?
- Was he impacted last year by a role that wasn't a great fit for his skillset? Is there a path to a better role this year?
Either way, the best thing about him has been his attitude and I look forward to watching him develop!
Slacker Mills
Member
Cayden should be an ideal fit for a team that plays like the 2024-2025 Dukies. Cam will thrive due to having a big man backing him up on defense. He's never had that in his career.
Yes, I'm certain it's very different for a lot of guys. Like in baseball, some guys tear up AAA but can't hit a major league curve ball.
I assume one big reason that the games are so different for some players is the level of competition they're used to playing against. So I looked at state and national rankings for the high schools for selected Duke players' senior seasons. The theory being that to be state champion you have to excel against the best high school teams and players in your state and to be nationally ranked you similarly have to play and excel against the best high school teams and players in the nation.
Here are the numbers (per MaxPreps):
| Player | high school | Yr | state | state rank | nat'l rank |
| Cooper Flagg | Montverde Academy | 2024 | FL | 1 | 1 |
| Boozer brothers | Christopher Columbus | 2025 | FL | 1 | 1 |
| Nik Khamenia | Harvard Westlake | 2025 | CA | 2 | 3 |
| Kon Knueppel | Wisconsin Lutheran | 2024 | WI | 1 | 6 |
| Taylor King | Mater Dei | 2007 | CA | 3 | 9 |
| Isaiah Evans | North Mecklenburg | 2024 | NC | 1 | 14 |
| Andre Dawkins | Atlantic Shores Christian | 2009 | VA | 9 | 449 |
| Joey Baker | Trinity Christian | 2014 | NC | 12 | 486 |
Looking at the above, it makes sense that Joey Baker and Andre Dawkins might possibly have had potential issues adjusting to the better competition in college (though both had the additional burden of coming to Duke a year early and Andre had even more major issues through no fault of his own). Taylor King seems to be another story, though as others have mentioned, he had some off-court issues too.
Obviously this isn't the be-all, end-all but looking at the above, I'd expect Isaiah Evans, as the best player on a state champion and top 15 team nationally, would be less likely to have trouble adjusting to the higher level than, e.g., Baker and Dawkins.
Though of course, as I said in an earlier post, at this point there's no real way for us to tell for sure.
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OK, I just realized I made a mistake in the above table. Cooper Flagg's Montverde team was Florida state champion but were not the high school national champion. I apologize for the error, and believe the rest of the table is correct.
SkyBrickey
Member
No, I think you had it right the first time. Montverde won the title in 2024 and finished 33-0.
Thanks. That makes sense. Sometimes high school sports info is hard to verify.
Bay Area Duke Fan
Member
I read it on the internet so it must be correct.
SkyBrickey
Member
I've made a couple posts comparing the freshman/sophomore years of Caleb, Nolan Smith and Wendell Moore on a per40 min basis. They are fairly similar with a couple of exceptions. Wendell was always a better rebounder than the other two. And Caleb's poor free throw shooting.
MaxPreps has two of Caleb's high school seasons posted and here are his shooting numbers. 160-406 3PT (39%). 250-312 FT (80%).
The free throw defense is the same in college as in high school. These numbers really back up the theory that it's Caleb's mental game that's holding him back. If he can overcome that and figure out how to balance scoring and playmaking, watch out.
SkyBrickey
Member
I think it will be a thing of beauty watching Cam and Pat play together. Jon is on record a couple of times last season saying "Pat is really really smart". Pat also has outstanding hands, so I think Cam will pile up the assists to Pat once they get comfortable playing together.
I don't think anyone here doubts Cayden's passing or basketball IQ or physicality. What do you see that makes you think he's ready to defend college guards? Is he quick enough to beat guys off the dribble?
Jon Scheyer on Cayden: "a really good, versatile defender."
NBA Draft Room scouting report:
"A pesky defender who can guard up and down the line up. Moves his feet well to stay in front of ball handlers and has very quick hands."
247 scouting report:
"Defensively, he lacks ideal footspeed in certain match-ups, particularly when extended away from his help against smaller and quicker guards, but he has versatility up the line-up and a good understanding of where to be on the floor. He understands rotations, shows good anticipation (2.6 steals per game in FIBA player), and is opportunistic with his hands."
On3 scouting report:
"a tough on-the-ball defender. He has quick feet at the point of attack and a strong IQ, understanding angles, and footwork."
Fayetteville Observer: "Cayden was relentless as a defender with consistent on-ball pressure"
Sounds a little like Kon Knueppel. Might not be the quickest, but smart, hardworking, and switchable.
Caleb's per 32 minute stats over his first 24 games:
10.2 points, 1.3 made threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 1.5 steals in 15.6 minutes per game
48% on twos, 28% on threes, 45% effective field goal, 62% on free throws, 1.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio
Caleb's per 32 minute stats over his last 14 games:
13.9 points, 2.0 made threes, 4.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.2 steals in 11.2 minutes per game
47% on twos, 50% on threes, 57,4% effective field goal, 67% on free throws, 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio
Hopefully, he turned a corner and will turn another one this summer and yet another next season.
10.2 points, 1.3 made threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 1.5 steals in 15.6 minutes per game
48% on twos, 28% on threes, 45% effective field goal, 62% on free throws, 1.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio
Caleb's per 32 minute stats over his last 14 games:
13.9 points, 2.0 made threes, 4.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.2 steals in 11.2 minutes per game
47% on twos, 50% on threes, 57,4% effective field goal, 67% on free throws, 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio
Hopefully, he turned a corner and will turn another one this summer and yet another next season.
SkyBrickey
Member
Yeah, this provides even more reason for hope. Compare his last 14 games numbers to Tyrese's sophomore year.
Tyrese per32 min sophomore year:
11.0 points, 1.9 made threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.3 turnovers, 0.72 steals
52% on twos, 35% on threes, 52.5% effective field goal, 76% free throw, 2.9 a:to ratio
Tyrese made a nice junior leap moving to SG. We don't yet know how much time Caleb will spend at PG vs SG. But these numbers suggest he's not far off at all from a big year, especially if he can get his FTs back to his HS 80%.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
One of the things I really love about Jon’s roster creation this year is that the depth of quality means we don’t NEED a certain guy or guys to play well to succeed.
Look, I obviously hope all the guys who are question marks play awesome, but I don’t feel like there is anywhere where we don’t have a very legit backup option.
So, all this talk about Caleb… even if he struggles there are absolutely other options who could be very high quality replacements.
Look, I obviously hope all the guys who are question marks play awesome, but I don’t feel like there is anywhere where we don’t have a very legit backup option.
So, all this talk about Caleb… even if he struggles there are absolutely other options who could be very high quality replacements.
SkyBrickey
Member
This is exactly right. Plus the battles in the 5 v 5 scrimmages all summer and fall elevate everyone's game.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
I’m pretty convinced Cam Boozer will be our best player. I could make a case for any of about 7 other players to occupy the next half dozen spots in terms of importance. That’s pretty exciting.