Duke Football Bowl Eligible!

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CrazyNotCrazie

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Mods can over-rule on this and roll this into an existing thread as I'm sure it has been mentioned elsewhere, but I thought all of the upcoming bowl speculation merits its own thread now that it is official.

I see Athlon has us in the Military Bowl (Dec. 27) vs. Navy and CBS Sports also has us in the Military Bowl vs. South Florida.
 
Which bowl game will we play in this season? Our last three bowl games:

2024: Ole Miss 52, Duke 20 in the Gator Bowl
2023: Duke 17, Troy 10 in the Birmingham Bowl
2022: Duke 30, UCF 13 in the Military Bowl

Let the speculation kick into high gear.
 
Best case: CFP.
Best but more probable case: Charlotte v. 6-6 SEC team.
Medium case: Boston against G5 not named Tulane.
Worst case: Pre-Christmas against non-AAC G5 but in Florida.

Bowls are all about TV ratings and economic impact from traveling fans and not the quality of your football team.
 
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Maybe UNC will declare that they’re going to their own bowl game, sorta like how they hang banners…it’ll be called the Ty-D-Bowl…UNC vs Colorado, Clemson or Florida State…
 
10 ACC bowl eligible teams right now:
Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Virginia, Wake Forest
Cal doesn't count as they are still a PAC12 team one more year for bowl purposes.

FSU can get eligible by beating the gators next weekend.

The ACC shows 13 bowls on it's website in addition to the CFP. I think the Alamo, LV, and LA bowls are not ACC bowls though, just included because of the Cal/Stanford P12 situation. So it's really ten bowls for nine teams, assuming somebody gets in the CFP as conference champion and FSU loses to FL.
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Bob Green said:
Which bowl game will we play in this season? Our last three bowl games:

2024: Ole Miss 52, Duke 20 in the Gator Bowl
2023: Duke 17, Troy 10 in the Birmingham Bowl
2022: Duke 30, UCF 13 in the Military Bowl

Let the speculation kick into high gear.
Click to expand...
So far I’ve seen:
Duke vs . ECU Duke Mayo Bowl, Charlotte
Duke vs. Mizzu Military Bowl, Annapolis
 
Mayo Bowl in Charlotte would be nice. Easy travel, should be able to field a decent crowd. Friday night over the holidays with the only other game that night the Holiday bowl so should get decent tv ratings. Looks like we could get someone like Kentucky or Missouri, which is a nice step up from the G5 schools (although if Kentucky can't beat Louisville, the SEC might not have a team to send, so there might be a G5 there anyways), while still looking like a game we have a decent chance to win.
 
Looking at Sagarin Ratings, Duke is currently rated lowest among bowl eligible ACC teams except California but California will go to one of the bowl games affiliated with the PAC 12:

Miami - 9
SMU - 18
Pittsburgh - 27
Clemson - 28
Virginia - 34
Louisville - 37
Georgia Tech - 42
NC State - 47
Wake Forest - 51
Duke - 52
California - 81

I’m unsure of the official pecking order of the bowl games but we might be headed to the Gasparilla Bowl on December 19 in Tampa.
 
^It depends on what F$U, Duke, etc. does this week. Worst casing here, Gasparilla is the 2nd to last pick if all spots are filled. There's no way a bowl in Tampa takes Duke over F$U if there's any way to take the Noles. Another trip to Birmingham, assuming they have to take a ACC team this year, is the last pick.
 
Bob Green said:
Looking at Sagarin Ratings, Duke is currently rated lowest among bowl eligible ACC teams except California but California will go to one of the bowl games affiliated with the PAC 12:

Miami - 9
SMU - 18
Pittsburgh - 27
Clemson - 28
Virginia - 34
Louisville - 37
Georgia Tech - 42
NC State - 47
Wake Forest - 51
Duke - 52
California - 81

I’m unsure of the official pecking order of the bowl games but we might be headed to the Gasparilla Bowl on December 19 in Tampa.
Click to expand...
And yet there is still a chance Duke goes to the ACC Championship
 
Gasparilla is undesirable because of the early date and a lower payout, but desirable by being in Tampa. If FSU wins in the swamp, they probably go there. If FSU loses, Gasparilla probably gets a non-ACC team. Duke will really not want to go because of the date.

Currently there are guaranteed to be 75 bowl eligible teams for 80 spots. There are 15 five win teams capable of filling those 5 open spots. Based on ESPN's math, their probabilities are as follows:

Louisiana 84% vs ULM
KSU 83% vs. Colorado
Wash St 81% vs OSU
Texas State 75% vs UAB
Baylor 58% vs Houston
FSU 53% vs Florida
Kentucky 47% vs Louisville
Army 23% vs UTSA and 38% vs. Navy
Auburn 26% vs Alabama
Buffalo 26% vs Ohio
Miss St 22% vs Ole Miss
Kansas 17% vs Utah
Temple 9% vs N Texas
UCF 6% vs BYU
Rice 3% vs USF

If less than five of them win a 6th game and the cheats beat the wuffies, they can get in as the highest ranked 5-7 APR team.
 
If I had to wager on it today, assuming Duke wins vs Wake and we don't slip into the ACC CG, I would bet we go to the Fenway Bowl.
 
BigWayne said:
Gasparilla is undesirable because of the early date and a lower payout, but desirable by being in Tampa. If FSU wins in the swamp, they probably go there. If FSU loses, Gasparilla probably gets a non-ACC team. Duke will really not want to go because of the date.

Currently there are guaranteed to be 75 bowl eligible teams for 80 spots. There are 15 five win teams capable of filling those 5 open spots. Based on ESPN's math, their probabilities are as follows:

Louisiana 84% vs ULM
KSU 83% vs. Colorado
Wash St 81% vs OSU
Texas State 75% vs UAB
Baylor 58% vs Houston
FSU 53% vs Florida
Kentucky 47% vs Louisville
Army 23% vs UTSA and 38% vs. Navy
Auburn 26% vs Alabama
Buffalo 26% vs Ohio
Miss St 22% vs Ole Miss
Kansas 17% vs Utah
Temple 9% vs N Texas
UCF 6% vs BYU
Rice 3% vs USF

If less than five of them win a 6th game and the cheats beat the wuffies, they can get in as the highest ranked 5-7 APR team.
Click to expand...
On the DBR podcast they mentioned that Carolina’s APR was horrible, and foreclosed that opportunity.
 
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