Constant roster turnover - is this still fun?
- Thread starter kybluedevil
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Duke of Destiny
Member
Both college basketball and the NBA have taken a tremendous hit in recent years, in my opinion. Having the top talent play only a single year in college before going to the NBA really hurts the game. You used to see great players grow each year and compete for National Championships. Now, one unlucky break (Duke), injuries (Duke, UNC, Kentucky, BYU, Kansas), or just not having the team one season (Arkansas, Houston) means the best players will NEVER play on the game’s greatest stage.
There used to be a journey that even the casual fan followed: Magic vs Bird in 1979, Jordan/Worthy vs Ewing in 1982 and then onto the NBA, which was still a solid product. Now, you get a single year and they’re off to the NBA where defense is optional, tanking is paramount, and the style of play isn’t for everyone.
It’s really sad to have these tremendous talents “retire” for a huge subset of basketball fans after a single season. For example, I’ve heard that Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel are doing incredible things in the NBA (and I’m very happy for them!), but I couldn’t be less interested in watching an NBA game, even if they are playing in it. The only exception to that is if it’s deep in the playoffs. If there’s an intriguing Conference Finals or NBA Finals matchup, I may check it out, but otherwise it’s unwatchable to me.
Now to Duke specifically. I still greatly enjoy each season. I love watching the team grow throughout the year and become better in March than they were in November. The talent that Duke gets is amazing to watch. However, watching youth ultimately succumb to veterans in the most excruciating way each season is extremely painful. Then knowing that the entire roster is more than happy to leave on that sour note to pursue bigger and better things rather than “running it back” makes matters even worse. The only guys who stay are the ones who don’t have more playing time, more NIL money, or a higher league to ascend to the next season. It makes the entire sport feel transactionary, hollow, and small. Gone are the days where guys cared enough to “right the wrong” and avenge what happened the prior year. Winning a championship in college just isn’t as important as it used to be for most of them.
For me, winning and watching excellence is exciting. If Duke could churn out one and dones each season that often won National Championships, I’d be the happiest person in the world, but that isn’t happening. Our strategy is flawed and needs tinkering. I definitely long for the days when Duke teams grew into champions. Even if it was rocky some years, the journey made it feel worthwhile, and it never took too long before we made it back to the top of the mountain.
There used to be a journey that even the casual fan followed: Magic vs Bird in 1979, Jordan/Worthy vs Ewing in 1982 and then onto the NBA, which was still a solid product. Now, you get a single year and they’re off to the NBA where defense is optional, tanking is paramount, and the style of play isn’t for everyone.
It’s really sad to have these tremendous talents “retire” for a huge subset of basketball fans after a single season. For example, I’ve heard that Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel are doing incredible things in the NBA (and I’m very happy for them!), but I couldn’t be less interested in watching an NBA game, even if they are playing in it. The only exception to that is if it’s deep in the playoffs. If there’s an intriguing Conference Finals or NBA Finals matchup, I may check it out, but otherwise it’s unwatchable to me.
Now to Duke specifically. I still greatly enjoy each season. I love watching the team grow throughout the year and become better in March than they were in November. The talent that Duke gets is amazing to watch. However, watching youth ultimately succumb to veterans in the most excruciating way each season is extremely painful. Then knowing that the entire roster is more than happy to leave on that sour note to pursue bigger and better things rather than “running it back” makes matters even worse. The only guys who stay are the ones who don’t have more playing time, more NIL money, or a higher league to ascend to the next season. It makes the entire sport feel transactionary, hollow, and small. Gone are the days where guys cared enough to “right the wrong” and avenge what happened the prior year. Winning a championship in college just isn’t as important as it used to be for most of them.
For me, winning and watching excellence is exciting. If Duke could churn out one and dones each season that often won National Championships, I’d be the happiest person in the world, but that isn’t happening. Our strategy is flawed and needs tinkering. I definitely long for the days when Duke teams grew into champions. Even if it was rocky some years, the journey made it feel worthwhile, and it never took too long before we made it back to the top of the mountain.
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Dukehk
Member
So did Florida and Houston etc.
Plenty of teams can keep their players for multiple years.
What we need to do is pay the NiL money either to retain our guys AND/OR bring in upperclassmen like Bidunga.
We’ve got to get the experienced guys in, even if it means our freshman don’t get much playing time.
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
Member
Then you lose those freshmen.
I don't understand why people are determined to overhaul our entire strategy because we lost last weekend. Something about "fixing things that are still intact" feels appropriate.
That shot from mid court misses and we are all comparing hot takes about where Jon ranks in the current coaching top five.
I was talking about having winning led by stars staying 3-4 years at the same school. That wasn’t how UConn won theirs. Sorry for any confusion there.
It is quite possible to win back to backs now. Heck, we very easily could have seen Duke do it last year and this year. But it won’t be done with 3- and 4-year program players leading the way. It will be done with transfer-heavy rosters with elite freshmen sprinkled in.
kybluedevil
Member
Begrudgingly thinking about what Hurley has done at Connecticut… We need to reconsider how we are doing things.
Instead of just getting top five NBA draft picks, he specifically goes out and gets veteran players to plug a specific hole.
And he famously gets players who are obsessed with winning, who have a chip on their shoulder… Much like the archetype Christian Laettner or Bobby Hurley back in the day.
The game has changed, but maybe we need to perfect a system. And get guys who fit within that system. Simply going out and getting the best freshman not guaranteed to work moving forward
Instead of just getting top five NBA draft picks, he specifically goes out and gets veteran players to plug a specific hole.
And he famously gets players who are obsessed with winning, who have a chip on their shoulder… Much like the archetype Christian Laettner or Bobby Hurley back in the day.
The game has changed, but maybe we need to perfect a system. And get guys who fit within that system. Simply going out and getting the best freshman not guaranteed to work moving forward
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
Member
If the half court shot missed, do you think Hurley would drop what he is doing and adjust to the Duke model?
I get that we are all sour when the season ends, but jeez, reading these threads you would not guess Duke was less than one second of game play from having a single loss.
There is no such thing as a perfect system. And as Mtn said, we were injuries and a fluke ending (both the turnover and the made 40-footer) from being heavy favorites in a Final Four matchup against Illinois. And a fluke loss away from being the title game favorite last year too.
What Scheyer has done so far is working. The tournament is fluky, but we've been in the mix for the title each of the last 3 years.
This Spring and next year will be a test, as we won't have juggernaut freshmen lead the charge. But I wouldn't change how Scheyer built the program the last two years. I would just change a turnover (or last week simply a made hail mary) in each of the last two tourney losses.
Mike Petrik
Member
Agreed. The discomfort I have with the current system has nothing to do with any optimal winning system. I just missed seeing players grown from boys to men over 4 years. I felt a greater Duke kinship then too. That is not at all a criticism of Scheyer or an implication that recruiting players likely to stay multiple years would be a more winning strategy. It would just be more enjoyable for me, that's all.
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
Member
On that I agree. But it is never coming back.
soflabluedevil
Member
Dr. Maturin
Member
This times a million. I suppose some folks are in their "bargaining" stage of grief where they search for an answer that will prevent future grief. No such answer exists.
I would gladly take Jon's recent roster construction for the next 30 years. Those teams would win a ton of games. And most of those seasons would still end in heartbreak, because that's how this sport works.
I for one really dislike the NBA v college basketball. My prejudice stems in part from the “early entry” concept, not to mention the style of play, cult of the personalities and the proliferation of generally very, very boring games…and expansion and dilution.
And, yes, I constantly play “what if?” with Duke lineups…instead of rehashing inbounds plays, and passing v holding the ball with <6 seconds left…Coop and Cam and Kon and Slim being the most recent speculative “lineup” and meshing of strengths and allowing for weaknesses.
K and S were/are seeking the very best players they can find roughly within current Duke academic guidelines, especially exemplary freshmen, like those three, and developing 2 and 3 year guys, like Slim and Pat, and portals, like Maliq….and an occasional senior (hopefully) like CFos and Maliq. All are high-character men, with discipline and exceptional talents…next year’s 4 recruits fit those criteria like a glove.
And then, there is injury [see Michigan’s Lindeborg and Conn’s Ball)…almost last year with Coop, and definitely this year with CFos and Pat. Timing and severity of those injuries is, of course, key. With high quality players, both coaches have been perhaps overly careful with over-recruiting. Good players expect, and deserve in most cases, playing time. The mix of the Coop, Kon team was there. The Cam, Slim team was almost there.
So, it seems to me, rather than exclusively building experience within the system or by transfers, Duke is looking for the highest quality and relatively immediate talent….and there is the rub…The coaches try to blend in talent, with judgment and challenges under fire. Very, very delicate balance. These are the cards we have been dealt as fans. The balance of building a team of portal transfers seems perhaps to be equally difficult. All coaches are seeking Goldilocks teams.
So…it is a fine balance…with way too many spur of the moment, Lady Luck bumps in the road…the other “What ifs” or “if onlys”. But remember those bumps work both ways, and we got our share of smooth paths in the past two years.
Next play.
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I think one reason many longtime Duke fans have trouble accepting that Duke’s tournament losses the last two years were more a result of flukey endings than of roster construction is that an intellectually honest acceptance that the last two years have been marked by exceptionally poor luck would require an acceptance that the 1986-1994 glory days were marked by exceptionally good luck. Twice in three years Duke needed a Christian Laettner buzzer-beater just to make the Final Four! The back-to-back champions won their two national semifinal games by a total of 5 points. The 1990 team that made the final game almost lost in the second round. There was real greatness — skill, composure, tenacity, etc — involved in those outcomes, but there was quite a bit of good fortune as well. Took me a while to accept that, but I have. There has been real greatness the last two seasons, but some bad luck as well.
(The last two seasons didn’t end only on final-minute bad luck, but if it’s a question of “fundamentally rethink roster construction and team building philosophy” vs “let’s not overreact,” 70-7 with two straight KenPom top-3 finishes answers that question pretty convincingly for me.)
TheDevilMadeMeDoIt
Member
I love Duke and I love winning so I am not going to lament the good ole days. These are the good ole days! Jon has been fantastic on all levels. Duke has crushed the nil era in basketball and football. First school to win ACC championships in both. Best of all we are still recruiting high quality kids. Not just great athletes but excepting Mensah, high quality people. I will continue to enjoy this era as we’re not gong back to old days. Everything moves on or gets left behind. GO DUKE!
Dr. Maturin
Member
Great post.
Yeah, K's early peak led some to believe he had some secret ingredient to win in the Tournament. Things evened out a bit over the second half of his career.
I do think there is probably *some* coaching skill to winning in the Tournament, but far less than the typical fan thinks. No one is immune to the chaos of March. K and Tom Izzo, with two of the best Tournament records of all time, both lost to 15 seeds. Dan Hurley lost to a 12 seed in the 1st round, and just a week ago nearly lost after blowing a 19-point lead in the Sweet 16. Todd Golden, after leading his team to a miraculous run last year, royally blew it against Iowa in the 2nd round. Tony Bennett, after a similarly miraculous title run, lost to 13 seeds in his next two appearances.
I've found the losses easier once I stopped taking the Tournament too seriously. It is the most exciting event in sports, but it is incredibly random, and its results don't really prove anything.
BlueDevilDog
On Holiday
Jon may also need to think about mixing up his blend of players and not simply hoarding a collection of 5 stars, but checking down into the 4's who can be great team players/winners and/or transfers with 2-3 years left of similar caliber. These are kids that would be highly invested in coming to Duke, not thinking about the NBA already. This would be a sizeable shift.
The issue with all these 5 stars is they come pre-minted with a mindset that looks past college for the NBA. You want kids where the college experience and name on the jersey is meaningful, and ideally for more than one year.
Maybe the brotherhood requires 2 years
.