As I replied to you per pm my thread wasn’t about the Iran war. It was about humanity in general being both amazingly brilliant (figuring out how to leave its own planet!) and also amazingly self-destructive (fighting endless wars based on religion or greed or desires for power, and also creating more and more powerful weapons of mass destruction). I wasn’t criticizing Trump or the Iran war in particular- both parties and ALL countries have started their own wars. You characterization of my thread as political is incorrect. It was taking a much wider-angle view than that.
Attack on Iran
- Thread starter Fish80
- Start date
It's not a "war crime" if it's not a "war" - loophole found!
-jk
Well-known Moderator
We have a discussion on the Moon shot. We have this discussion on Iran. Experience suggests that a discussion investigating the philosophical differences between the two has an outcome unlikely to remain within the parameters of DBR's posting guidelines. There are plenty of other places on the web where such philosophical discussions can happen.
And Mods have only so much time or desire to police such threads. Recriminations from an early tourney exit are plenty hard enough!
regards,
-jk
ClemmonsDevil
Member
As things stand now it would be very surprising to me if there were any "kinetic" Iranian attacks in the US, surprising to the point that my tinfoil hat assumption would be a false flag barring evidence to the contrary.
Iran's strategy has been to cause economic damage to the United States (high gas prices, inflation, attacks on American firms' operations in the region, etc.) that will redound against the political fortunes of the current administration in the short term while reinforcing Iran's security in the long term (making it costly for the GCC countries to continue to host the American military, making the war costly enough to discourage a repeat by the current or future administrations). It is a sound strategy, and they have been very calibrated in how they have pursued it.
Attacking the US home front, particularly a "kinetic" attack, would not advance the strategy. Random attacks on civilians, infrastructure, or even military targets inside the US aren't going to materially improve Iran's position in the war. It probably would have the opposite effect, since Iran would be risking a "rally around the flag" effect that would salvage the currently dismal popularity of the war. I don't seem them going for that kind of high risk/low reward route.
My guess is that any Iranian counter attack that directly affects the US homeland would be limited to a cyber attack, and even then would be narrowly targeted in a way that is consistent with the overall strategy (e.g. going after datacenters used by the Mag7 companies that prop up the stock market). No clue if that would even be within their capabilities.
The ICC asserts jurisdictions over nationals of state parties, but also over acts that take place within the borders of state parties, regardless whether the actor is a national of a state party. The latter is the basis for the ICC's asserted jurisdiction against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. Israel isn't a state party, but Palestine is, and the indictments were for conduct happening in Palestine. (The ICC also indicted a Hamas commander, which is more straightforward since he was a national of a party state).
So the fact that the US isn't a party to the Rome Statute doesn't necessarily bar the ICC from asserting jurisdiction. But.... Iran is not a state party, either. So I'm not sure how you get ICC jurisdiction against anybody on either side of the war.
Incidentally, Venezuela is a state party to the ICC. I'm no expert but between the boat strikes and Maduro kidnapping there is probably something actionable there against the President and other administration officials. But like you say, this is pretty academic given the infamous Hague Invasion Act.
I believe President Joe Biden called Bibi's and Gallant's arrest warrant “outrageous”. His predecessor and successor has been more demonstrative. Putin has also avoided arrest even when visiting countries that signed Rome. The ICC requires cooperation and enforcement by governments. Without that it's a paper tiger. The two most high profile warrants have been ignored. The US (Clinton never submitted to the Senate), Russia, Israel and Sudan all signed Rome and all withdrew their signatures.
As for the ICC extending jurisdiction over non party states - Ukraine was not a member when the Putin warrants were issued. They are just started their second year under the ICC. It doesn't seem they are limiting themselves to member states.
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I had to look this up, but the Rome Statute evidently has a provision that allows states to accept ICC jurisdiction over crimes occurring within its territory without formal accession to the treaty. Ukraine did this in 2014, which provided the ICC its jurisdiction for the 2023 Putin et al. indictments.
I suppose Iran could do something similar here. But yeah, the law ain't real, so good luck enforcing any arrest warrants.
With the world focused on Iran, Ukraine stuns Russia in the Mediterranean — Haaretz
Using explosive drone boats launched far from the home front, Kyiv has expanded its war on Russia's shadow fleet, striking tankers thousands of kilometers from the front lines
You know, these wars just keep spreading…
I wonder what Iran has developed in terms of seagoing drones.
wavedukefan70s
Member
That threat is real our airshow has moved off base from joint base Charleston (c17s and supports craft).
It will be over the harbor infront of the Yorktown memorial and downtown Charleston may 2nd. Im going to watch them practice Thursday and friday. 40,000 attended in 2010 .it will be more this year.
Infront of a retired aircraft carrier in the "The Holy City." During a military demonstration is not somewhere im comfortable at this time.
That seems awful juicy for someone with a beef with us .
Just because we were taking about it over the weekend and tonight (8pm) is the latest deadline.
www.theguardian.com
Something or nothing Hegseth canceled the Pentagon press briefing for this morning (8am) yesterday.
Trump threats cause dilemma for US officers: disobey orders or commit war crimes
Legal experts say attacking Iran’s infrastructure would constitute a war crime – but would military officers be held responsible?
Something or nothing Hegseth canceled the Pentagon press briefing for this morning (8am) yesterday.
We've hit 2 bridges and a train station. Iran urging its people to form human chains to protect infrastructure.
www.pbs.org
Trump warns a 'whole civilization will die tonight' if a deal with Iran isn't reached
Airstrikes hit two bridges and a train station in Iran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, as President Donald Trump warned that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran does not meet his latest deadline for the Islamic...
www.pbs.org
Matches
Member
I mean, I think no? Despite all the bluster it seems unthinkable.
But the notion that we may intend to wipe 92 million people off of this planet is chilling. And it seems more plausible than it did a week ago.
MChambers
Member
It seems plausible enough that living in Washington DC seems a lot more risky this week than it did last week.
Whoa. NY Times with a new article that lays out in great detail how Trump made the decision to go to war. CIA director and Rubio thought Bibi’s regime change plan was “farcical” and “BS”
Vance heavily against it.
Most agreed killing the ayatollah and whacking Iran’s missiles was doable but only the Prez bought Bibi’s regime change theory. Military chief Caine was skeptical but refrained from taking a strong position.
Well worth reading if you want to feel bad about the whole deal
Vance heavily against it.
Most agreed killing the ayatollah and whacking Iran’s missiles was doable but only the Prez bought Bibi’s regime change theory. Military chief Caine was skeptical but refrained from taking a strong position.
Well worth reading if you want to feel bad about the whole deal
bundabergdevil
Member
I don’t think there is a Pence is Snape story here.
FosterCoachK82
Member
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that he hoped “maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen” to avoid the attacks before the Tuesday evening deadline.
He continued: “We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.”
Maybe I will destroy an entire civilization tonight. Maybe I won’t. Tune in at 8PM to find out, 7PM Central time.
He continued: “We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.”
Maybe I will destroy an entire civilization tonight. Maybe I won’t. Tune in at 8PM to find out, 7PM Central time.
bundabergdevil
Member
The last time I was this on edge was that COVID closure period where everything just suddenly shut down.
I was on a career mental health sabbatical and working at a wildlife management area, in between corporate things.
I was working with a guy, Al, who treated the visitor center like his gd military post. Good, good guy. Smoked like a chimney, had never hike a trail in the area, but cleaned every inch of that VC, including the duck butts.
Type of guy thrilled when there was a clean deer car strike where the meat could be preserved and eaten.
That might sound weird to city folks and he was a nut, but a decent man at heart.
Anyway, just as everything shut down, it was just him and me in the VC. We blasted it’s the end of the world as we know it and he pretended to chug cleaning disinfectant because, you know.
Anyway, I had a premature baby at home, and I was scared, but it was still a time to laugh.
I don’t know how we’re here and this is okay but I’m unsettled. But I hope a story helps.
CameronBlue
Member
REuters reporting: