ACC Football Championship

I would love for Duke to get in the CFP even though I think we would get blown out by whoever we played in the first round. I don’t care if we “deserve” it, there is no justice in college sports. I think we are unlikely to get in though. Even though I think we are better than James Madison I expect the committee would take 12-1 James Madison over 8-5 Duke. If we beat Virginia, and if Troy beats James Madison, then I think we would be in the CFP.
One can dream...never say never. Remember NCSU in 1983 basketball? No one ever thought they had a chance...
 
I would say that GA Tech actually played 2 good teams: Pitt and Duke. Doesn't change the summary, other than maybe elevating GA Tech's SOS above some of the others on the list below Duke.

Oops, yah, I was considering a "good team" as any of the 6-2 or better teams (there were no 5 win teams).

Another thing to point out... Duke is the only team that only lost to good teams. Every other team lost to a 4-4 team.

UVA lost to Wake.
Pitt lost to Louisville.
GA Tech lost to NC State.
SMU lost to Wake and Cal.
Miami lost to Louisville.

Props to Louisville and Wake for both having 2 wins against the top teams.
 
Oops, yah, I was considering a "good team" as any of the 6-2 or better teams (there were no 5 win teams).

Another thing to point out... Duke is the only team that only lost to good teams. Every other team lost to a 4-4 team.

UVA lost to Wake.
Pitt lost to Louisville.
GA Tech lost to NC State.
SMU lost to Wake and Cal.
Miami lost to Louisville.

Props to Louisville and Wake for both having 2 wins against the top teams.
Wake is actually a good team. They were 8-4 and should have been 9-3 if it weren’t for terrible officiating against GA Tech on the offsides play. And they beat UVA and SMU. They are not a pushover
 
agreed, though the UVA game was just a few weeks ago, it was in Durham, and we were just overwhelmed....
It seems like oddsmakers and much of the knowledgeable CFB community are looking at that game as something of an anomaly. Not sure I agree with that but results vs common opponents (State, Carolina, Cal and Wake) suggest that this game should be something of a toss up. And that we might be favored were it not for that head to head result.

IMHO, this one is really on the staff to game plan and play call much better and instill much greater focus and intensity in the team. I do believe we can win if we are appropriately prepared and play a clean game.
 
It's possible that UVA is just a bad matchup and that they'll whip us again. I don't think so, though. Everything we know about the two teams suggests they have similar talent levels. The 247 talent composite has Duke at #58 and UVA at #62. The two teams performed similarly against common opponents. There is reason to believe UVA is not as good as its record, given how they've won so many close games.

I think we can be competitive. To win, I do think we'll need Mensah to have a great game, and/or win the turnover battle, and/or get a score on defense/special teams.
 
It's possible that UVA is just a bad matchup and that they'll whip us again. I don't think so, though. Everything we know about the two teams suggests they have similar talent levels. The 247 talent composite has Duke at #58 and UVA at #62. The two teams performed similarly against common opponents. There is reason to believe UVA is not as good as its record, given how they've won so many close games.

I think we can be competitive. To win, I do think we'll need Mensah to have a great game, and/or win the turnover battle, and/or get a score on defense/special teams.
Duke actually performed better against common opponents:

NC State beat UVA 35-31 (H) and lost to us 45-33 (A)
Cal lost to UVA 31-21 and to us 45-21 (both H)
UNC lost to UVA 17-16 and to us 32-25 (both H)
Wake beat UVA 16-9 and lost to us 49-32 (both A)

UVA was 2-2 and exactly even in points scored
Duke was 4-0 and +60 in points scored
 
Duke actually performed better against common opponents:

NC State beat UVA 35-31 (H) and lost to us 45-33 (A)
Cal lost to UVA 31-21 and to us 45-21 (both H)
UNC lost to UVA 17-16 and to us 32-25 (both H)
Wake beat UVA 16-9 and lost to us 49-32 (both A)

UVA was 2-2 and exactly even in points scored
Duke was 4-0 and +60 in points scored
Yeah but NCSU was an OOC game. So for all intents and purposes, we should pretend it never happened. Even in this comparison where that information is completely irrelevant. It never happened
 
The moment the ACC adapted an un-balanced schedule they guaranteed that these post-season/pre-playoff discussions will deteriorate into BBS skirmishes with fondue forks and moist towelettes. When the AP determined the National Champion, the CFB purists griped. So the CFBP slowly evolved from the primordial ooze and not surprisingly the griping evolved along with it!....and along with it came something to fuel the in-fighting, analytics! En Garde you cretinous SEC sub-creatures! (Doctoral candidates may get a pass....MAY provided they can tell me the difference between an ANOVA and an ANCOVA, it's a low bar trust me).

I think the main reason I want the committee to put a victorious Duke into the CFP, is to watch the rest of college football...

Lose. Their. Minds.
 
Yeah but NCSU was an OOC game. So for all intents and purposes, we should pretend it never happened. Even in this comparison where that information is completely irrelevant. It never happened
Its a common opponent, whether or not its in or out of conference doesn't make a difference. No different if the common opponent had been Tulane or UConn or Coastal, how did both teams fare against same competition.
The real issue here is UVA won the head to head and without too much of a struggle.
 
Its a common opponent, whether or not its in or out of conference doesn't make a difference. No different if the common opponent had been Tulane or UConn or Coastal, how did both teams fare against same competition.
The real issue here is UVA won the head to head and without too much of a struggle.
Yes, the question is what is more revealing, the records against common opponents or the head-to-head result? And that question turns on whether the result was a function of a match-up problem for Duke or just one lousy game. I'm looking forward to finding out Saturday.
 
It's possible that UVA is just a bad matchup and that they'll whip us again. I don't think so, though. Everything we know about the two teams suggests they have similar talent levels. The 247 talent composite has Duke at #58 and UVA at #62. The two teams performed similarly against common opponents. There is reason to believe UVA is not as good as its record, given how they've won so many close games.

I think we can be competitive. To win, I do think we'll need Mensah to have a great game, and/or win the turnover battle, and/or get a score on defense/special teams.
hope you're right, but I remain doubtful...they just completely dominated us. Maybe that makes them overconfident? This is going to require all the lucky clothing I can muster.
 
Fair point. Given that a Duke win might open the door for a smaller conference to get another team in the playoff, we might get goodwill from the casual fan.

Assuming any casual fan might watch this game.
Out here in SoCal, casual fans are most likely neutral to somewhat positive about Duke. Certainly there are haters, but I would not consider those to be casual fans.

Duke football is so far off the radar of college football fans here, that most don’t realize how bad the program was between Spurrier and Cutcliffe. They just know that the football program is not as good as the basketball team.
 
Out here in SoCal, casual fans are most likely neutral to somewhat positive about Duke. Certainly there are haters, but I would not consider those to be casual fans.

Duke football is so far off the radar of college football fans here, that most don’t realize how bad the program was between Spurrier and Cutcliffe. They just know that the football program is not as good as the basketball team.
Actually, they do know how bad the program was between Spurrier and Cutcliffe—that's why Duke football is so far off the radar of college football fans, period. Even folks who pay attention to good teams don't really give our program much credit nowadays, often writing Duke off as a 'bad loss.' In the past 4 years, Duke has not been a 'bad' loss at all, and a win over our program should actually be considered a quality win [IMHO].
 
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