It's possible that UVA is just a bad matchup and that they'll whip us again. I don't think so, though. Everything we know about the two teams suggests they have similar talent levels. The 247 talent composite has Duke at #58 and UVA at #62. The two teams performed similarly against common opponents. There is reason to believe UVA is not as good as its record, given how they've won so many close games.
I think we can be competitive. To win, I do think we'll need Mensah to have a great game, and/or win the turnover battle, and/or get a score on defense/special teams.