2026 Men's Basketball Recruiting

Maged said:
My son (also a Duke grad) was at Duke this past weekend and got beautiful photos of his kids with Pat and Caleb at one of the eating establishments. So it's not like they are cloistered or anything. I was so glad to see that because many years ago when I was there, the players (unfortunately for them) ate in the Blue and White Room regularly.
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Yep…I remember Gminski sitting down next to me in the Blue and White (or “the Pits”) for lunch one day…
 
Duke of Destiny said:
You made my point for me. For most players, their end goal is going to the NBA. The second that becomes a reality, they leave because that is where they wanted to be in the first place. That doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t like to win and achieve certain goals in high school and college before they are allowed to go to the NBA, but they care far less about them and aren’t willing to put off the NBA to achieve them. We can only make our “assessments” based on what we actually see happen. We have data. If what I’m saying wasn’t true, then we’d see potential lottery picks come back every now and then claiming “unfinished business.”

To your other point, it’s well known in every sport that fans generally care far more about a specific team winning a championship than do the players. Most players are just as happy winning a championship on another team and will leave for more money, more playing time, etc. This is particularly true in high school and college basketball today with the ability to transfer schools as you please. There are exceptions but this is generally how it goes. It’s a tough reality for some to accept, but it’s the truth.



Exactly my point. A lot of players do appreciate the college experience, but for many of them it’s in the same way that players appreciate the high school experience: it’s essentially mandated, so they make the best of it.

Players who are projected to be lottery picks before ever setting foot on campus would skip college nearly 100% of the time if they could be drafted straight out of high school. It doesn’t mean that they don’t care while they are here and that they don’t work very hard, but the NBA is what matters most to them.

This isn’t groundbreaking stuff I’m saying here.
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I don't think I did... Again, you are quite confident in your assessments of how much other people care about something. That seems like quite a trick to me, to be able to get inside someone's mind and understand them that acutely.

I'm not quite sure your criteria are actually measuring whether or not you care more about the Duke men's basketball team winning a national championship than, say, Cooper Flagg or Cam Boozer does in a given year. You seem to perceive yourself as caring more because you root for Duke basketball every year, yet these guys might only be in school for a year or two before moving onto the NBA. Do you care more than Christian Laettner or Grant Hill or Shane Battier (all 4-year guys who also went onto the NBA)? How about Jay Williams? You're equating how much a Duke player (in this case) cares based upon whether he decides to stay in college, which you view as a critical measure of their level of caring or commitment. I'm not quite sure that's fair or accurate, and I wouldn't want to make that presumptuous leap of logic. But you do you.
 
Duke of Destiny said:
You made my point for me. For most players, their end goal is going to the NBA. The second that becomes a reality, they leave because that is where they wanted to be in the first place. That doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t like to win and achieve certain goals in high school and college before they are allowed to go to the NBA, but they care far less about them and aren’t willing to put off the NBA to achieve them. We can only make our “assessments” based on what we actually see happen. We have data. If what I’m saying wasn’t true, then we’d see potential lottery picks come back every now and then claiming “unfinished business.”

To your other point, it’s well known in every sport that fans generally care far more about a specific team winning a championship than do the players. Most players are just as happy winning a championship on another team and will leave for more money, more playing time, etc. This is particularly true in high school and college basketball today with the ability to transfer schools as you please. There are exceptions but this is generally how it goes. It’s a tough reality for some to accept, but it’s the truth.



Exactly my point. A lot of players do appreciate the college experience, but for many of them it’s in the same way that players appreciate the high school experience: it’s essentially mandated, so they make the best of it.

Players who are projected to be lottery picks before ever setting foot on campus would skip college nearly 100% of the time if they could be drafted straight out of high school. It doesn’t mean that they don’t care while they are here and that they don’t work very hard, but the NBA is what matters most to them.

This isn’t groundbreaking stuff I’m saying here.
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An all-star pitcher told me after he retired that players play for the ring, even more than for the money. He held his hand up with his on it.

College players don't care? An NCAA championship is cherished forever. The pros tell them that playing in college is more fun than playing in the NBA. Some of what influences players is the risk of staying in college -- injury risk and business risk (draft placement). Decision to leave college is not as simple as "the goal" -- except maybe for Derryck Thornton's uncle, who never get DT an ,NBA contract.

College players care less about games at Duke than what -- the moment of transition to the NBA -- whar does that mean? Losing in the NBA, a fate that awaits most of the highest draft choices?

You know,, the money in college can be pretty good.
 
JasonEvans said:
Between the flat delivery, the lack of real knowledge, the long stretches of just reading text on the screen, and the uncertainty about how to even pronounce the name of the kid upon whom he was reporting, that was a rough watch.

And based on the reporting in that video, that guy doesn't really have any good sources or info about what Duke is doing in terms of roster construction for next year. There was a calculated reason behind Duke backing away from Jordan Smith, Jr. in terms of NIL allocation. I cannot say more, but I suspect most Duke fans will be pleased at the end result.
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At the risk of getting this thread back on topic, Adam Zagoria posted on Twitter recently about Jordan Smith, Jr. not picking Duke, and says it's because Duke will be retaining its guards.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025090485472145491
 
bshrader said:
Good choice on your part, they don't get to experience a lottery pick in their midst much in the last decade plus.

In fact, a quick google search shows since 2013, Carolina has all of TWO lottery picks, and both were in 2019 (Coby White and Cam Johnson).

In contrast, it looks like we have 14 during that same time frame.
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Well it’s not like we’ve run them out of the gym with that supposed talent discrepancy. We are 16-14 vs UNC since 2013 (ie 2014 and beyond).

I think we have 1 Natty each and 3 final fours each in that period.

I’d rather have the talent than not but I care about winning. Period.
 
Ignatius07 said:
At the risk of getting this thread back on topic, Adam Zagoria posted on Twitter recently about Jordan Smith, Jr. not picking Duke, and says it's because Duke will be retaining its guards.
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Having seen Jordan Smith Jr a couple of times (tv), I was very, very impressed with his physicality, handle, ability to drive, passing, acceptable 3-point shooting. Plus fierce, “dawg,” defense. A “court-control” player, both sides of the ball.

Despite repeated references to the weakness of the ‘26 HS class, Smith Jr didn’t look “lesser” in any way; rather, he looked like a sure starter and significant contributor on both O and D from Day 1. So his decision to go to Arkansas was a major disappointment, to me. I assumed Smith Jr backed off Duke purely because of Rippey Jr’s commitment; i.e., that Smith Jr wants to be the PG.

Now this prediction from recruiting insider Adam Zagoria adds a decidedly different and very welcome perspective, admittedly dependent upon (1) exactly what “its guards” actually means, (2) exactly how many returning players would constitute retention, and (3) whether the prediction comes true.

Who are this season’s “Duke guards”? Surely includes CG Foster and PG Boozer. Are all of wings Evans, Sarr, and Harris also “guards”?

It seems extremely unlikely that all of the above-named 5 players will return. Is it possible that all but Evans will return? If Zagoria actually referred only to Foster and Cayden B, even their return, given Rippey Jr’s arrival, would give Duke a very strong 3-guard rotation for the 2 traditional backcourt positions.

I’ll hope Zagoria included both Sarr and Harris in his prediction, and that such a shocking 4-returnees-prediction is spot on.
 
So what does that TMS tweet “They get, and pay for, whomever they want. Same before and after NIL” mean. Pay for whomever they want before NIL?
 
I want to stress that no decisions have been made about who will come back and who may make a different decision. That said, some of the guys (and their families/agents) have expressed which way they are leaning at the moment and Duke thinks it is likely the program will be able to retain more players than had been expected a couple months ago. Duke knew that Jordan Smith, Jr. would have changed that calculus in a significant way, both in terms of playing time for returnees and the program's ability to direct appropriate NIL payments to the returnees. So, a decision was made to back away from Jordan Smith Jr to prioritize the guys who are already on the roster.

But, if decisions don't end up going the way Duke had hoped, I don't want folks to get too upset. Regardless of what happens I am confident Jon will put a contending team on the floor next season, like he has every year here.
 
JasonEvans said:
I want to stress that no decisions have been made about who will come back and who may make a different decision. That said, some of the guys (and their families/agents) have expressed which way they are leaning at the moment and Duke thinks it is likely the program will be able to retain more players than had been expected a couple months ago. Duke knew that Jordan Smith, Jr. would have changed that calculus in a significant way, both in terms of playing time for returnees and the program's ability to direct appropriate NIL payments to the returnees. So, a decision was made to back away from Jordan Smith Jr to prioritize the guys who are already on the roster.

But, if decisions don't end up going the way Duke had hoped, I don't want folks to get too upset. Regardless of what happens I am confident Jon will put a contending team on the floor next season, like he has every year here.
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That’s the reality of today’s college hoops. If player gets hot for the rest of the season, or even if they don’t, their thinking can change. We are lucky to have Scheyer managing the roster building.
 
Pghdukie said:
Pat needs another year at Duke.
Heck of a game to be entertaining future recruits.
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He is good but not great at the college level-defense, rebounding, size. He is average at scoring and committing bad fouls. What top level skill would he contribute to an NBA team to displace other guy(s) on the roster? The competition at that level is much higher than college. He really needs to (and can) improve his game before going to NBA.
 
Pat would be the most important guy on the team not named Cam to bring back next season. I've been hoping he would stay, but the mocks already had him squarely in the first round. It was Casson their backup PG - not Cadeau - that Pat stood up before deflecting the ball and diving on the floor for the steal. I read another post this morning "Pat Ngongba made himself a lot of money with this play".

I think he will be a Wendell Carter type NBA big man. Great positional defender. Good feel for the game. Does everything well but nothing at an elite level. I think he could give 15mpg of solid backup minutes to most any NBA team next season. I still hope he comes back but if the chance was 30% before the game, it may only be 20% now.
 
My reading of who will leave the team before the 2026/2027 season is as folloows:

1. Maliq Brown will not qualify
2. Cameron Boozer will be a high lottery pick
3. Pat Ngongpa may be late first round or early second. He is borderline but the NBA likes potential.
4. Isaiah Evans is probably a mid to late 1st round pick and is likely gone
5. Cameron Sheffield will not qualify
6. Jack Scott will not qualify but has coaching potential. Personal choice.
7. Ifeanyi Ufochukwu technically qualifies but is a questionable fit

Pool of potential returning players:
1. Caleb Foster is unlikely an NBAer and loves Duke.
2. Cayden Boozer is not an NBAer as yet.
3. Sebastian Wilkins development this season should result in meaningful PT next seaon.
4. Dame Sarr needs development and may choose Duke NIL to other alternatives
5. Nikolas Khamenia can be an important player or even starter going forward
6. Darren Harris at the end of the bench subs is not clearly tied to Duke

Recruits:
1 Cameron Williams PF
2. Deron Rippey PG
3 Bryson Howard.SG
4. Maxime Meyer C
5. Sayon Keita C ( possible late signee)

If We retain 4 of the returning pool and pick up 5 recruits our biggest need will be for a strong inside presence who can rebound and play strong defense inside. Williams and Meyers will be freshmen and lightly built. Keita, if he comes is also lightly built. Khamenia can provide some of the strength inside but a portal pickup of two would solidify the front court.

With Caleb, Cayden, Bryson and Deron, our backcourt would be acceptable.

With Cameron, Nik and Sebastian we have good wing fill in and if either Dame or Darren choose to stay we could be quite good.

If we have both Meyer and Keita at center, will one reshirt? One experienced and rugged center/PF would really strengthen the team.

The old story, we could wind up with 11 players with 8 getting serious PT.
 
soflabluedevil said:
What top level skill would he contribute to an NBA team to displace other guy(s) on the roster?
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He's a elite playmaking big. His ability to read defenses and pass is highly coveted. I think his shooting will come along and he's a plus defender. But, it's a team's ability to run offense through him from the high post/perimeter that's going to get him drafted.
 
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