2025 Men's Basketball Recruiting

I understand that. But does anyone think Duke can and should be shelling out $2-5M for top10 recruits in the future?

Why would Jon invest tons of energy in recruiting AJ to play for a year if in the end he's just going to expect us to match Alabama or Arkansas or Ohio State's NIL deal?
In the case of Dybantsa, it will be BYU that will be hard to beat. Billionaire Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith is prepared to make it hard for anyone to outbid BYU.
We have put out offers out to I believe 4 kids in that 15-30 range over the past two months. I know we also have offers out to several OADs. But the fact that not even the Boozer boys have committed to Duke yet is a worrisome sign about where this is moving...
Yeah, the Boozers have not been a Duke lean for a while now. The perception is that Miami and maybe Florida are each ahead of Duke at the moment. Don't forget that the twins grew up mostly with their mom, CeCe, not Carlos (they split up in 2009).
Another thing that helps Duke with the elite recruits is that guys like Cooper will probably have outside sponsorships which pay far more than any school can offer. Cooper is already being courted by every shoe brand in existence. One deal alone with a Nike or Adidas would blow away even the richest NIL offers, making NIL really not much of a consideration in the recruiting process.
The top kids now have shoe deals while still in high school. Most players expect school NIL deals (aka Pay for Play) to supplement the other endorsement deals they already have. Unless a school can demonstrate that some endorsement deal is directly tied to the player attending that school (like if Nike said "we will sign you to this lucrative contract if you go to Duke, but not if you go elsewhere") then it plays little to no role as a recruiting inducement.

Also, though Duke is a Nike school, rest assured that if Nike is going to make a NIL push for any school, it will be Phil Knight's beloved Oregon. In fact, it appears Nike is doing that for Oregon in football already.
Read this story --
Man, I hope you're right. But even in the best case view, we are facing a lot of new headwind in landing these top recruits...

And part of the evidence is what JE is pointing out and that none have committed. Playing time is a non-issue. So if NIL money is not the driving issue, why haven't any of these top guys committed?
As I said earlier, guys are waiting to get a sense of the market. The entire process seems to have been pushed back a bit. Not saying no one will commit over the summer, but it is quite likely to be fewer than in past years. Duke is not in a different position here than other top recruiting schools.
He's a great recruiter for sure. Probably the best. But the size of our NIL bankroll really matters.
Not gonna say NIL is the only thing that matters, that would be silly, but it is likely #1 and #1a on the decision tree. Scheyer is a great recruiter who paints a compelling story of why these dudes should come to Duke. They love him and they see him (and the Brotherhood) as a great pathway to the NBA... but if Duke's offer is 30% less than someone else, it is a big hill for Duke to climb to get there.

The recruitments of VJ Edgecomb and Flory Bidunga are proof of that.
 
Nightrydas playing right now vs Team Herro. It's a complete mismatch. This game was over 2 minutes into the first quarter. Cam Boozer is an automatic bucket anytime he touches it. Caleb Wilson looks incredible too.
 
In the case of Dybantsa, it will be BYU that will be hard to beat. Billionaire Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith is prepared to make it hard for anyone to outbid BYU.
Notable as well that Dybantsa announced that he is transferring from Prolific Prep in Northern California to "Utah Prep," whatever that is.
 
To put a finer point on Jason's comment that things are proceeding slower than in the past, none of the consensus Top 20 players and only two in the Top 30 (Saddiq White to Syracuse and Jamier Jones to Providence) have committed yet. So, it's slower for everyone.
 
On their latest pod, Parish and Norlander said AJ Dybantsa is going to get $3-5 mill to play college ball in 2025-26. That is basically around what the NBA pays a mid-lottery pick. WOW! A year or so ago, that would be the entire NIL budget for a top tier NIL-spending team.
This episode is worth checking out in full, as 24/7 recruiting guru, Adam Finkelstein, is the guest. Aside from the in-depth discussion of the current recruiting landscape, you get a review of the top Adidas players from the ongoing Adidas 3SSB and the ongoing Peach Jam. Finkelstein mentioned players signing two year contracts. I had not heard that yet, and I can't find anywhere that it has been written about.


I'm looking forward to the time that the market settles and we get some sort of baseline.

Yeah, I have to imagine that some of what is driving these commitment delays is the fact that the two of the largest NIL deals belong to Great Osobor and Coleman Hawkins simply because they waited around while other teams spent their money and cashed in with schools who still had a large NIL pool.

You’re right. These are some really crazy times in college bb. I hope we can get a sixth natty with Cooper and supporting cast this coming season. Not sure what will happen after that!

I was thinking this myself, this year is huge for us with all the uncertainty ahead.
 
In a case of X showing utility instead of bile, I tweeted to Adam Finkelstein about his contracts comment from the aforementioned pod and got a response from him and one of his colleagues, @Isaac_Trotter

:Jamir Watkins, Pelle Larsson, Jesse Edwards and Jalen Bridges all said on the record that they had contracts last year. Antonio Reeves did not have one with Kentucky. We'll see if that changes under Mark Pope."

 
To put a finer point on Jason's comment that things are proceeding slower than in the past, none of the consensus Top 20 players and only two in the Top 30 (Saddiq White to Syracuse and Jamier Jones to Providence) have committed yet. So, it's slower for everyone.
My concern is less about the delay in commitments that is impacting everyone, and more about my feeling that there doesn't seem to be a player that "feels" like a Duke lock based on the mutual tea leaves.
 
Let's assume a doomsday scenario where Duke gets none of the top recruits in 2025. Further assume that K2 blows up and leaves with Maluach, Flagg and even Proctor. That leaves coming back Brown, Ngbonga, Foster, Evans, and Harris. Any reason to believe the coaching staff can't bring in 2 or 3 guys rated 20-35, and 3 transfers who are ready to play, and we field a top 15-20 team dependent on how good the transfers are?
 
My concern is less about the delay in commitments that is impacting everyone, and more about my feeling that there doesn't seem to be a player that "feels" like a Duke lock based on the mutual tea leaves.

If freshmen are going to be asking for $2+ million, I have no problem whatsoever taking that money and giving it to a transfer that I already feel quite confident is good to very good.

The world has changed. As much as I like going the traditional route, if it doesn't make sense to take freshmen, I'm ok with it. It wasn't long ago that we adapted to taking OADs. I'm starting to adapt to taking transfers.

- Chillin
 
If freshmen are going to be asking for $2+ million, I have no problem whatsoever taking that money and giving it to a transfer that I already feel quite confident is good to very good.

The world has changed. As much as I like going the traditional route, if it doesn't make sense to take freshmen, I'm ok with it. It wasn't long ago that we adapted to taking OADs. I'm starting to adapt to taking transfers.

- Chillin
Well, there may be some top freshmen (e.g. Dybantsa) who will receive big bucks, but in general freshmen cost less than transfers. Some coaches have discussed the strategy of filling out their roster (after the key players have been purchased) with freshmen because they're cheaper.

"Sometimes you take [high school prospects] because they're like rookies [in the NBA] -- they're cheaper," said USC coach Eric Musselman. "You take them to fill out your roster."
 
A few factors go against mining the transfer portal as the primary method for team-building.
  1. The 2024-25 season will be the final year of the 5th year players that got an extra season due to COVID and being a freshman during the 2020-21 season (there might be a few left that had to take a medical leave or something like that, but most will be gone after this upcoming season).
  2. The transfer portal window is incredibly short, just 45 days. That's the window to get into the portal. However, many players want to get to their next team right away. It's speed dating. And sometimes, players that you hoped or expected to be in the portal aren't.
I love the approach Coach Scheyer and staff took to building the roster for this upcoming season. The transfers were all experienced and fit a specific need. The core of the team, however, consists of players that Duke recruited out of high school (Proctor, Foster, Flagg, Maluach, Kon, Evans, and Ngongba and Harris to a lesser degree for just this upcoming season). The transfers will contribute but fit a specific role and profile based on the core players.

I am sure there will be unexpected departures moving forward. Perhaps a player has a better-than-expected freshman season, like Jared McCain. Perhaps a player has a worse-than-expected season, like TJ Power, and transfers away. But I think that recruiting and retaining whatever guys want to stick around are going to end up as the bulk of the roster each season. Instead of 1-2 transfers, it might be 3-4. That might be the sweet spot. We'll see.
 
A few factors go against mining the transfer portal as the primary method for team-building.
  1. The 2024-25 season will be the final year of the 5th year players that got an extra season due to COVID and being a freshman during the 2020-21 season (there might be a few left that had to take a medical leave or something like that, but most will be gone after this upcoming season).
  2. The transfer portal window is incredibly short, just 45 days. That's the window to get into the portal. However, many players want to get to their next team right away. It's speed dating. And sometimes, players that you hoped or expected to be in the portal aren't.
I love the approach Coach Scheyer and staff took to building the roster for this upcoming season. The transfers were all experienced and fit a specific need. The core of the team, however, consists of players that Duke recruited out of high school (Proctor, Foster, Flagg, Maluach, Kon, Evans, and Ngongba and Harris to a lesser degree for just this upcoming season). The transfers will contribute but fit a specific role and profile based on the core players.

I am sure there will be unexpected departures moving forward. Perhaps a player has a better-than-expected freshman season, like Jared McCain. Perhaps a player has a worse-than-expected season, like TJ Power, and transfers away. But I think that recruiting and retaining whatever guys want to stick around are going to end up as the bulk of the roster each season. Instead of 1-2 transfers, it might be 3-4. That might be the sweet spot. We'll see.
Jon addressed this exact question in his interview with Bilas a few weeks ago. I posted it at the time because I thought it was very informative.

I don't have the time to go look it up, but I remember him saying the optimum might be 3-4 person recruiting classes and 1-2 transfers. I thought it was notable because if you do the quick math on an 11-man scholarship roster, that's Jon planning on 5-7 returnees each season. Yes, I did get some Goldilocks vibes. Jon is still aiming for roster continuity...
 
Here's a link to all 13 offers we currently have out for anyone keeping score at home. Question - when was the last time Duke had 13 offers out without a commit?? Maybe all the way back in the 70s? Just to validate what others have said only 4 of 247's top30 recruits for the class have committed.

 
As I said earlier, most kids are set on deciding late so they have a good understanding of the NIL marketplace. To say it has exploded in the past year is a massive understatement. Offers are being tossed around these days that are 2, 3, 5x multiples of what kids got just a year ago.

On their latest pod, Parish and Norlander said AJ Dybantsa is going to get $3-5 mill to play college ball in 2025-26. That is basically around what the NBA pays a mid-lottery pick. WOW! A year or so ago, that would be the entire NIL budget for a top tier NIL-spending team.

There will be college basketball rosters getting into 8 digits next year, I'm sure of it.
@JasonEvans Even with considering the way timing to second NBA contracts work, does this possibly mean we will see fewer one and dones because a second-rounder can get more money by staying in school and hoping to move up the draft board with another year or two in college?
 
@JasonEvans Even with considering the way timing to second NBA contracts work, does this possibly mean we will see fewer one and dones because a second-rounder can get more money by staying in school and hoping to move up the draft board with another year or two in college?

That's pretty much what we just saw with Tyrese Proctor.
 
@JasonEvans Even with considering the way timing to second NBA contracts work, does this possibly mean we will see fewer one and dones because a second-rounder can get more money by staying in school and hoping to move up the draft board with another year or two in college?
There was a pretty good bit of that in stay-or-go decisions just a couple months ago. I strongly suspect folks like Alex Karaban, Wooga Poplar, Jaxson Robinson, Hunter Salis, Mark Sears, Trevon Brazille, Arthur Kaluma, and a few others would likely have taken the draft route had they not been assured of $500k+ by coming back to school.
 
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