2024 U.S. Presidential election

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acdevil said:
This right here. You have to understand the bigger picture. Trumps plan isn’t necessarily to win the election. If need be, he would be fine stealing it. How does he do that? First of all, they flood the zone with polls showing him doing well right before the election. This is happening. I can’t remember where I saw it but over the last few weeks there was something like 38 objective polls released. 23 Republican polls (by groups with a strong lean or internal campaign polls). Guess how many democrat ones have been released over that time? One.

So we get to Election Day and the polls had looked like it was even. Trump loses the popular vote by five points. What happens? He whines and screams that the election. Is being stolen. How could Harris possibly get so many votes? The polls said it was even. That’s the plan. Thank you for attending my Ted talk.
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Is there a way to “like” a comment but hate what it says?

(Sadly, I agree 100%)
 
acdevil said:
This right here. You have to understand the bigger picture. Trumps plan isn’t necessarily to win the election. If need be, he would be fine stealing it. How does he do that? First of all, they flood the zone with polls showing him doing well right before the election. This is happening. I can’t remember where I saw it but over the last few weeks there was something like 38 objective polls released. 23 Republican polls (by groups with a strong lean or internal campaign polls). Guess how many democrat ones have been released over that time? One.

So we get to Election Day and the polls had looked like it was even. Trump loses the popular vote by five points. What happens? He whines and screams that the election. Is being stolen. How could Harris possibly get so many votes? The polls said it was even. That’s the plan. Thank you for attending my Ted talk.
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I've been thinking this as well. If I had my way polls would be outlawed, allowed only for internal use but no release to the public. Honestly, what purpose do they serve? God help us if the final polls show Trump winning Pennsylvania by half a percentage point and Harris actually wins. Who is going to explain margin of error to these folks?
 
dudog84 said:
I've been thinking this as well. If I had my way polls would be outlawed, allowed only for internal use but no release to the public. Honestly, what purpose do they serve? God help us if the final polls show Trump winning Pennsylvania by half a percentage point and Harris actually wins. Who is going to explain margin of error to these folks?
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I nominate you.
 
acdevil said:
It only takes a few Republican governors to screw it up. They don’t need to get Trump over 269, they just have to make it so no one has a majority.

I’m much more worried about the election being stolen than Harris actually losing.

The guard rails held before. But the Supreme Court has moved much further to the right in the mean time. I have no faith in them to do the right thing.
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How do you see him stealing it? There are only 7 states that matter. 6 have Democratic governors. The one Republican governor and Secretary of State are in Georgia and they are no fans of Trump. He brought 60 lawsuits in 2020 and lost them all.

Unless this is a Florida situation where it comes down to less than 1,000 votes in one state, I can't see it happening. And I'm plenty paranoid. 😁
 
The NYT article I posted above closes with this, which I find most scary:

“Online, Mr. Musk has painted a dark picture of what would happen if Mr. Trump lost, a circumstance that could hurt Mr. Musk personally. In an interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, he acknowledged “trashing Kamala nonstop” and being all in for Mr. Trump.
If Mr. Trump loses, he joked, ‘how long do you think my prison sentence is going to be?’”

Go to prison, for what Elon? Or have you been convinced that both sides are willing to weaponize the justice department against their enemies?
 
SkyBrickey said:
How do you see him stealing it? There are only 7 states that matter. 6 have Democratic governors. The one Republican governor and Secretary of State are in Georgia and they are no fans of Trump. He brought 60 lawsuits in 2020 and lost them all.

Unless this is a Florida situation where it comes down to less than 1,000 votes in one state, I can't see it happening. And I'm plenty paranoid. 😁
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I dunno. I keep re-reading the wiki page about the Brooks Brothers Riot and this little nugget keeps me up at night: John E. Sweeney of New York, nicknamed "Congressman Kick-I'm a real wanker for saying this. I'm a real wanker for saying this." by President Bush for his work in Florida,[8] set the incident in motion[9] by telling an aide to 'stop them'[1][4] and to "Shut it down."

How does a Republican Congressman (from NY) get away with shutting down the Florida recount in Miami-Dade County? There were multiple operatives involved in monkey-wrenching the recount in Florida including Roger Stone and Brad Blakeman and other demonstrators involved in the riot who later took positions in the Bush Administration. Trump and his surrogates including Corey Lewandowski have had 4 years to war game this out and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see some variation of what played out on Jan. 6, to recur in each of the 7 swing state capitals.
 
I think it’s obvious the Democrats are very concerned about Harris’s chances. They are talking more than ever about how the Electoral College has to go. President Obama chiding black male voters now. Kamala talking to people in Arizona about how tough this is going to be. The vibes are not the same as they were just a couple of weeks ago. That tells me everything I need to know. They don’t believe they’re going to win. And frankly, neither do I.

As much as it pains me to say it I’m now predicting a Trump win. I’m deeply saddened, but I see it as inevitable at this point. Not sure America survives what’s coming next.
 
SkyBrickey said:
There's a data scientist at Northwestern who has shown that the trading market, PredictIt, has been a much better predictor of recent elections than the polls.

Harris was up more than 5 points until about 2 weeks ago. And now she is down 5 points. So SOMETHING has changed to change investor sentiment.

And as Nate Silver recently wrote, just a 2 point swing in national polling can have a 20-25 point swing in a candidate's chances of winning.

Harris needs some kind of moment between now and Nov 5.
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I watched an interview this past Summer with a statistics professor at Rutgers who has studied both polls and betting markets as they relate to political elections and he said that his findings mirror what you say above - that the betting markets are much better predictors of elections than polls (I guess on the theory that people who are actually betting their money on a specific outcome spend more time and effort in trying to understand what might happen) but I wonder, because it hasn't been that long that you could legally bet on election outcomes, whether or not there is enough statistical proof to make such an assertion.
 
SouthernDukie said:
I think it’s obvious the Democrats are very concerned about Harris’s chances. They are talking more than ever about how the Electoral College has to go. President Obama chiding black male voters now. Kamala talking to people in Arizona about how tough this is going to be. The vibes are not the same as they were just a couple of weeks ago. That tells me everything I need to know. They don’t believe they’re going to win. And frankly, neither do I.

As much as it pains me to say it I’m now predicting a Trump win. I’m deeply saddened, but I see it as inevitable at this point. Not sure America survives what’s coming next.
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General Milley seems to think America won’t survive either.

www.independent.co.uk

Trump’s top general calls ex-president ‘fascist to the core’

General Mark Milley expressed his concerns about Trump to author Bob Woodward in March 2023
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
Harris needs some surprise boost.

The only one I can come up with is George W and Dick Cheney going on camera, maybe a Fox News interview, and warning the country together about the dangers of Trump.

I know he's said he's not doing it, but would GWB be willing to change his mind and be that "in case of emergency, break glass" moment?
 
SouthernDukie said:
I think it’s obvious the Democrats are very concerned about Harris’s chances. They are talking more than ever about how the Electoral College has to go. President Obama chiding black male voters now. Kamala talking to people in Arizona about how tough this is going to be. The vibes are not the same as they were just a couple of weeks ago. That tells me everything I need to know. They don’t believe they’re going to win. And frankly, neither do I.

As much as it pains me to say it I’m now predicting a Trump win. I’m deeply saddened, but I see it as inevitable at this point. Not sure America survives what’s coming next.
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Maybe you aren’t familiar with yourself, but you’ve always thought Trump was gonna win
 
SkyBrickey said:
Harris needs some surprise boost.

The only one I can come up with is George W and Dick Cheney going on camera, maybe a Fox News interview, and warning the country together about the dangers of Trump.

I know he's said he's not doing it, but would GWB be willing to change his mind and be that "in case of emergency, break glass" moment?
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The voters she needs are not going to give a flying duck what W or Cheney think. I think she needs to go on Rogan. Or even have a surrogate like Obama there. I despise Rogan but it could be an effective play given his overwhelmingly youngish male audience.
 
dudog84 said:
Am I the only one who gets annoyed when people don't know the difference between a noun and an adjective? I mean, this is 2nd grade stuff.
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I don’t care about a persons bad spelling or grammar. I am a bit annoyed about a person that tries to do the following:

Steal from me
Lie to me
Is rude to me
Tries to shoot me
+More things like the above.

Having said that I am really bad at grammar and I really don’t want to annoy anyone so I should probably stop posting.
 
jipops said:
The voters she needs are not going to give a flying duck what W or Cheney think. I think she needs to go on Rogan. Or even have a surrogate like Obama there. I despise Rogan but it could be an effective play given his overwhelmingly youngish male audience.
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I disagree. 20% of Republicans are Nikki Haley voters. Then you have all the Independents.

If George W and Cheney went on camera together and earnestly made the case to the American people - with a row of American flags behind them - that Trump is a danger to democracy, Harris would win.

She only needs 1-2 out of 100 to move her way or stay home.

And yes. She or Walz or Obama should do Rogan.
 
dudog84 said:
I've been thinking this as well. If I had my way polls would be outlawed, allowed only for internal use but no release to the public. Honestly, what purpose do they serve? God help us if the final polls show Trump winning Pennsylvania by half a percentage point and Harris actually wins. Who is going to explain margin of error to these folks?
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That is a very good point since, with one or two exceptions, nobody on this thread understands it.
 
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