2024 U.S. Presidential election

538's polling average has Trump up 0.4 in AZ.
It has Harris up 2.1 in Michigan and 3.0 in Wisconsin.

Do you have some other better sources for state by state averages?
Someone beat me to this, but 538 is painting a more favorable picture right now for Harris than Nate Silver and RCP (not surprising).

Some of this is poll inclusion/exclusion. But some of it is recency bias too, and Trump has had a good 7-10 days in the polls.

Silver has Harris +2.2 in WI, +1.4 in MI and -2.1 in AZ. The big hitter in AZ was CNN's recent Trump +5. Talk to your guys! 🤓
 
To illustrate what a serious news organization Fox News is, watch Peter Doocy ask the White House Press Secretary about Kamala Harris supposedly speaking with a southern accent. I guess this has something to do with how "black" she is? I don't know, maybe somebody can educate me.

 
To illustrate what a serious news organization Fox News is, watch Peter Doocy ask the White House Press Secretary about Kamala Harris supposedly speaking with a southern accent. I guess this has something to do with how "black" she is? I don't know, maybe somebody can educate me.

Someone has to pickup the slack for Simon Ateba.
 
Remember that whole thing about “cognitive decline” that was a raging topic about 2 months ago?

Any chance at all that returns as a topic in the mainstream media circles? Somehow I doubt it.


I’m sure NY Times has another sane-washed headline ready to go.
 
The Harris campaign just introduced a new ad that is clearly aimed at getting under Trump's skin. It will air on debate day, tomorrow, and the ad buy is on Fox News in just two markets -- West Palm Beach and Philly. No matter where Trump wakes up or watches Fox News, he's going to see this one.

And this ad is pretty serious. It uses a bunch of former Trump officials -- including Mike Pence -- to slam Trump as unsafe for the country.
 
The Harris campaign just introduced a new ad that is clearly aimed at getting under Trump's skin. It will air on debate day, tomorrow, and the ad buy is on Fox News in just two markets -- West Palm Beach and Philly. No matter where Trump wakes up or watches Fox News, he's going to see this one.

And this ad is pretty serious. It uses a bunch of former Trump officials -- including Mike Pence -- to slam Trump as unsafe for the country.
Finally an attack ad that is based in reality and features nothing but the truth and instead of running it non-stop all across the country, they tailor it to just two markets for a day. Go figure.

I understand the audience is one, but seriously, the audience should be the entire country.
 
Finally an attack ad that is based in reality and features nothing but the truth and instead of running it non-stop all across the country, they tailor it to just two markets for a day. Go figure.

I understand the audience is one, but seriously, the audience should be the entire country.
I suspect it'll get more play. Harris has a couple months and a deep war chest.

-jk
 
Finally an attack ad that is based in reality and features nothing but the truth and instead of running it non-stop all across the country, they tailor it to just two markets for a day. Go figure.

I understand the audience is one, but seriously, the audience should be the entire country.
Well, I don't think those facts are correct. There is nothing to indicate it will only play in just two markets for a day. It's a start. Harris has a lot of money and 57 days to spend it. And there is this thing called social media (and message boards) which will spread it far and wide for free.

Edit: -jk is quicker to the coffee on Monday morning.
 
Oddly, as a political ad, I’m not bothered by it. But Journalists with “access” to Trump like Maggie Haberman have turned commenting on “Trump rage“ into a cottage industry. I love a good “Trump is unhinged “anecdote as much as the next person because you know he’s about as appealing as a toilet clog, but IMHO it’s another sign that the media is failing its mission. Not to disparage Haberman, for whom I have a great deal of respect, but the specter of Trump raging around his penthouse in a velvet robe is an image the press likes to perpetuate. Whether true or not at best it lacks context and serves to sow division in the electorate.
 
To illustrate what a serious news organization Fox News is, watch Peter Doocy ask the White House Press Secretary about Kamala Harris supposedly speaking with a southern accent. I guess this has something to do with how "black" she is? I don't know, maybe somebody can educate me.

I think it goes to the issue of her authenticity (or purported lack thereof)
 
Trump has added another person to his list of folks he's never heard of.

We weren't fighting a vice president," he said in a rally in Michigan on August 29. "We didn't even know who the hell she was


(Non paywalled version here. )
 
Trump has added another person to his list of folks he's never heard of.




(Non paywalled version here. )
So he wants to change the 25th amendment to remove a VP who covers up the incapacity of the President. That seems to be putting a lot of pressure on Vance on Day 1 because Trump seems to be proving on a daily basis that he is not capable of being president. Unfortunately, tens of millions of voters cannot (or in many cases choose not to) figure this out.
 
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