2024 U.S. Presidential election

JasonEvans said:
In normal times a loss tends to send a candidate and his/her ideas to the sidelines so someone with more of an electoral chance can rise. But, as has been stated about a thousands times in this thread alone, these are not normal times.

It would be very tempting to think that if Trump loses this fall, his back-to-back Presidential losses combined with underperformance by the GOP in the 2018 and 2022 elections would teach the party that the MAGA message is not a good way to win power nationally... but I am quite skeptical. The cultish nature of Trump's support and his proclivity to lie about election results means that millions of his followers treat him like a winner, not a loser. Well over 50% of voters in the GOP think he won in 2020 and they will think that again in 2024 should he lose. To them, backing him is a path to victory, as contradictory as that sounds.

As has been oft mentioned, Mitch McConnell had a chance to dispose of Donald Trump in the wake of January 6th but opted not to go there on impeachment. At this point I do not know what it will take -- short of his own mortal end -- for the GOP to wrestle itself from Trump's grip. I suspect that someone anointed by Donald will be the GOP nominee in 2028... assuming Donald does not try to run again himself.
Click to expand...
He is to self centered to anoint anyone else
 
JasonEvans said:
In normal times a loss tends to send a candidate and his/her ideas to the sidelines so someone with more of an electoral chance can rise. But, as has been stated about a thousands times in this thread alone, these are not normal times.

It would be very tempting to think that if Trump loses this fall, his back-to-back Presidential losses combined with underperformance by the GOP in the 2018 and 2022 elections would teach the party that the MAGA message is not a good way to win power nationally... but I am quite skeptical. The cultish nature of Trump's support and his proclivity to lie about election results means that millions of his followers treat him like a winner, not a loser. Well over 50% of voters in the GOP think he won in 2020 and they will think that again in 2024 should he lose. To them, backing him is a path to victory, as contradictory as that sounds.

As has been oft mentioned, Mitch McConnell had a chance to dispose of Donald Trump in the wake of January 6th but opted not to go there on impeachment. At this point I do not know what it will take -- short of his own mortal end -- for the GOP to wrestle itself from Trump's grip. I suspect that someone anointed by Donald will be the GOP nominee in 2028... assuming Donald does not try to run again himself.
Click to expand...
I still think this race is a dead heat. The betting market has it at 51/48 for Trump. But if I let myself dream about him going down in defeat, I think there are a couple of big questions hanging out there that will have a major impact on the future of MAGA.

Does Trump do time? Could be a minimal security fed prison. Could be house arrest. But if he has to do real time for his crimes, his ability to communicate with the public and influence our politics will go away. Anybody heard from Steve Bannon lately? Trump's WH attorney Ty Cobb recently said that he won't get 55 years for the J6 case but "he will do 6-9". And the documents case is even stronger...

What happens with Fox News? They are not just reporting on our politics. They are driving our politics along with the rest of Murdoch's media empire. Will Murdoch make a clean break w Trump - going to war with him if he has to - and more aggressively promote others like Haley, Rubio, ...? Will Murdoch's more moderate kids take control of the empire and dial back the propaganda and misinformation?

I don't think the uninformed, angry 30% are going anywhere. And neither is social media, so they will continue to be fed a diet of MAGA red meat no matter what. But the above two questions IMO will influence what forces animate this 30% in trying to build toward a 50% electoral majority.
 
JasonEvans said:
In normal times a loss tends to send a candidate and his/her ideas to the sidelines so someone with more of an electoral chance can rise. But, as has been stated about a thousands times in this thread alone, these are not normal times.

It would be very tempting to think that if Trump loses this fall, his back-to-back Presidential losses combined with underperformance by the GOP in the 2018 and 2022 elections would teach the party that the MAGA message is not a good way to win power nationally... but I am quite skeptical. The cultish nature of Trump's support and his proclivity to lie about election results means that millions of his followers treat him like a winner, not a loser. Well over 50% of voters in the GOP think he won in 2020 and they will think that again in 2024 should he lose. To them, backing him is a path to victory, as contradictory as that sounds.

As has been oft mentioned, Mitch McConnell had a chance to dispose of Donald Trump in the wake of January 6th but opted not to go there on impeachment. At this point I do not know what it will take -- short of his own mortal end -- for the GOP to wrestle itself from Trump's grip. I suspect that someone anointed by Donald will be the GOP nominee in 2028... assuming Donald does not try to run again himself.
Click to expand...
I was taking a nice walk in an excellent state park this morning. Sharing the park was a church group holding a service before a picnic. Walking by the service, I heard part of a sermon. I heard that the members should don the Armor of God, and that they were on the side that would win. Armor of God had a brief mainstream exposure with Trump’s assignation attempt. I think it a fair assumption that I was hearing a religious call to action in favor of Trump and groundwork for rejecting contrary election results on religious grounds. And this is Virginia, that seems poised to give Harris a clear win, and my bet is by a margin of 8 points or even more.
 
bird said:
I was taking a nice walk in an excellent state park this morning. Sharing the park was a church group holding a service before a picnic. Walking by the service, I heard part of a sermon. I heard that the members should don the Armor of God, and that they were on the side that would win. Armor of God had a brief mainstream exposure with Trump’s assignation attempt. I think it a fair assumption that I was hearing a religious call to action in favor of Trump and groundwork for rejecting contrary election results on religious grounds. And this is Virginia, that seems poised to give Harris a clear win, and my bet is by a margin of 8 points or even more.
Click to expand...
It’s funny how evangelicals seem to have forgotten 1 John 2:15.

“Do not love the world or the things in the world. If anyone loves the world, the love of the Father is not in him.”
 
CDu said:
Yeah, DeSantis is very MAGA, just minus the cult of personality persona that Trump has garnered.

Some might suggest similar is true of Youngkin.
Click to expand...
Not that it matters but Youngkin isn’t MAGA imo. He’s a politically ambitious republican in a blue, leaning purple, state. Like Haley, he could win a general election but he couldn’t win a primary right now.
 
CameronBlue said:
Possibly, the NEOCON movement lasted a hot minute, but that was based on conservative economic ideology. Its statement of principles was laid out when the Project for a New American Century was introduced. MAGA is an emotional, cultural uprising if you will that has been building for years. Project 2025 is a reactionary response to multiculturalism, which will take a generation or two from which to recover.
Click to expand...
I didn’t find fiscal policy to be a big part of neoconservatism/PNAC. From what I’ve read it is/was primarily about military strength and foreign policy.
 
Rich said:
I could see him anointing one of his kids on his deathbed, most likely Ivanka, maybe Don Jr.

Edit: PackMan a few seconds faster
Click to expand...
I can't imagine Ivanka has interest in continuing the grift. IMO she's more likely to run as a Democrat than as the head of MAGA. She has basically fled the scene after Jan 6...

Don Jr would love it but I'm pretty sure he and JD Vance are too charisma-challenged to rise to the occasion. My money is on the fist pumping Josh Hawley.
 
bird said:
I was taking a nice walk in an excellent state park this morning. Sharing the park was a church group holding a service before a picnic. Walking by the service, I heard part of a sermon. I heard that the members should don the Armor of God, and that they were on the side that would win. Armor of God had a brief mainstream exposure with Trump’s assignation attempt. I think it a fair assumption that I was hearing a religious call to action in favor of Trump and groundwork for rejecting contrary election results on religious grounds. And this is Virginia, that seems poised to give Harris a clear win, and my bet is by a margin of 8 points or even more.
Click to expand...
Where? I’m in SW VA and I’ve passed by Sunday worship at Claytor Lake State Park several times. “Armor of God”, in Christianity, preceded MAGA but, it could certainly could be used for MAGA propaganda. Thete’s a little “Armor of God” in “The Battle Hymn of the Republic” imo.
 
Random thoughts on some key electoral college States. It’s all about the margins.
I have just read that RFK will still be on the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan. The way those states are ‘poleing’ I think this is a win for Harris. RFK is also in a big discussion with NC. About 1.7 million ballot papers have already been printed with his name on. Sixty seven of the states 100 counties have already received their absentee mail-in ballots with his name on. However, RFK is still suing the state’s election board. The RFK factor together with the crazy Republican candidate governor gives Harris a chance to win NC.
Pennsylvania is not looking as good as the other rust belt states for Harris. One reason I heard that this might be is because this was the state where Trump was ‘shot’…sounds plausible I guess.
Of the Sun Belt states abortion is also on the ballot in Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Cant be bad for Harris.
 
burnspbesq said:
It’s funny how evangelicals seem to have forgotten 1 John 2:15.

“Do not love the world or the things in the world. If anyone loves the world, the love of the Father is not in him.”
Click to expand...
Friendly amendment: Evangelicals have forgotten a good deal more than that lovely verse. They’ve glommed onto a “King Cyrus imperfect vessel” justification for Trump’s perfidy and their own blasphemy. This allows them to avoid the extreme awkwardness of thinking about their candidate’s character wrt several of the Ten Commandments and pretty much all of the Beatitudes.

They’re preoccupied, too, with Revelations. And probably new messages in Two Corinthians.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top