2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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Not to mention the justice dept and joint chiefs of staff. It’s going to get ugly. This time he kind of knows how things work
I mean, you can expect across the board pardons and that’s the least of it. Justice has never been blind but any semblance of impartiality is gone. Power means more.
 
The results appear to show that GOTV efforts, ground game, fundraising, etc., no longer are sufficient. Trump camp controls the predominant media being consumed these days, and they were effective in pushing their message through it. Combine that with a general lack of understanding of the impact COVID had on the world economy and this is the result.

The polls were much more right than the CBouzy brigade. But even the polls and PredictIt underestimated Trump. Really crazy that the polls still managed to do so for a third time.

Hopefully the doomsday concerns don’t come to fruition. We will see.
 
Never thought I’d paraphrase Ole Roy, but I don’t give a sh*t about Duke right now.

I concur. I don’t care about Duke basketball at all right now. How could I? So many lives are about to be disrupted and put in harms way. A man and a group around him has been empowered to govern without any intent at all of actual governing. Chaos is positively imminent. We’ve already seen this. I don’t know how I’m supposed to not care about this.

Best I do right now is tell my daughters they are worth more than the results of this election. They were failed last night.
 
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I concur. I don’t care about Duke basketball at all right now. How could I? So many lives are about to be disrupted and put in harms way. A man and a group around him has been empowered to govern without any intent at all of actual governing. Chaos is positively imminent. We’ve already seen this. I don’t know how I’m supposed to not care about this.

Best I do right now is tell my daughters they are worth more than the results of this election. They were failed last night.
My 14 year old half Mexican nephew with two moms will be eligible to vote next go round - assuming there's an election. I think this is a happy thought for today, but I can't really tell for sure.
 
My heart never believed this was possible. My head knew it was, of course, but my heart never considered the possibility.

My heart felt that way because of some deeply ingrained beliefs about the fundamental nature of Americans, and of humans in general.

It appears those beliefs were wrong, and I have no idea how to reconcile that and move forward.
 
I admit I was wrong. I sent an email to a fellow moderator yesterday saying I expected Harris to win because outside of his hard-core base, people are tired of Trump's rhetoric. The voting public decided they are tired of Democrats.

I’d say that Trump’s rhetoric actually excited people outside of his base. But if you think the public is tired of the party that helped pull us out of an economic abyss then ok.
 
Are there measurements that can tell us how many voters crossed party lines? I would be extremely interested in that data.
How about this? There was a drop in Democratic support in major metro areas including Boston, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Houston.

And Trump is ahead by 4 million in the national popular vote.

I would have never guessed any of that.
 
My heart never believed this was possible. My head knew it was, of course, but my heart never considered the possibility.

My heart felt that way because of some deeply ingrained beliefs about the fundamental nature of Americans, and of humans in general.

It appears those beliefs were wrong, and I have no idea how to reconcile that and move forward.
I was wrong also. Got sucked in by hoping that we were as good as I believed. It should be noted that 7 states passed abortion rights.
 
I’ve had several people try to console me by telling me my life isn’t going to change that much. That attitude is exactly what’s wrong with this country. Tonight just made things a lot more dangerous for a lot of people across the world. It’s indisputable. But a bunch of people on this board and me and the rest of the white guys will be just fine I guess. So what are we complaining about? F that noise. We just elected a racist, rapist, election denier felon. A bunch of faces are going to be eaten by leopards the next four years. Hard for me to have schadenfreud about that when so many people that don’t deserve it are going to suffer as well.

At the end of the day, keeping the less advantaged and the “other” down is more important to too large a part of our electorate than their own well being. And while they continue to be marginalized economically, they’ll celebrate the fact that all the brown people are being rounded up.

Also, even if Dems win the house, the legislative branch is impotent now that SCOTUS has given Trump immunity. Even if it hadn’t, find me 11 senators to convict him. The house could impeach Trump on a monthly basis in his next term and he wouldn’t be convicted by this incoming senate. Everything will be by executive order. There is no legislative branch. Some governors will fight it and we will then see how far Trump will go to twist their arm.
 
Are there measurements that can tell us how many voters crossed party lines? I would be extremely interested in that data.
There aren’t. We can speculate that independents broke more for Trump/GOP than usual, and most likely we didn’t see much crossover. But registration generally trended R nationally, and it appears D turnout was not as substantial as R turnout.

My guess is that party affiliation defactions were largely a wadh, mainly because that has largely been true historically. There was hope on the Dem side that we would see more crossover, but I suspect that it didn’t happen. Combine that with lighter than hoped turnout and indies breaking more GOP than historically and you get this result.
 
Well I'm certainly disappointed with the result, not completely shocked because I always knew a Trump win was a possibility.
Here are my takeaways from this debacle.

1. I will never see an elected woman president in my lifetime. My kids might see it, but its not happening anytime soon. I think seeing black and latino males tilt strongly for Trump, not to mention young white men (they were assumed Trump) don't want a woman in charge, unless maybe she's hot, and even then probably not.

2. If your party's current administration is tied to any sort of national crisis, you're cooked, you aren't going to win. This year it was inflation, 2020 was covid, 2008 was the housing bubble, 92 was the recession, 80 was inflation again.

I do not have much hope for the next 4 years (or longer) and I'm terrified for my kids quite honestly. I know there are some here that think it really won't be that bad. We'll find out soon enough if you are right.
 
In a heart wrenching, nauseating sort of way, I'm interested to see the social experiment this becomes, the fallout of Trump's policies, and how it adversely impacts the people who voted for him. "Well, this is what you wanted {shrug}." That includes high costs due to tariffs and fewer migrant workers, women without reproductive health care and how it affects the men in their lives, perhaps the demise of the Affordable Care Act, more racism, antisemitism, violence, etc.

Republicans will take the Senate, (I apologize but) the defeatist part of me wants them to take the House too so they screw things up as bad as possible and we can say, "We told you so." Otherwise, the right will complain that they couldn't do all they wanted because of the leftist, radical left in the House. I don't know, so many feelings, emotions, it's raw.

I live in the liberal bastion of NYC, I make a good living, I'm older, I'll be somewhat protected. I feel awful for those of us who saw what could be coming and will be greatly impacted, especially women. I feel bad for my children and the future of this country who will potentially need to clean up a historic mess.

We are living in strange, strange times. I hope the institutions that our founding fathers created hold, for they will be greatly tested.
 
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