2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election


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Earlier this morning I posted a report from Pitt County here in NC. (Greenville/ECU). Here's the county's 4PM release.

Election Day 2024 continues to exceed the number of voters from this time four years ago -- but is lagging behind 2016.

The Pitt County Board of Elections says that 10,484 people have voted with their 4 p.m. update.

That’s compared to 9,848 in 2020 and 17,306 in 2016.

Total votes though are down compared to the 2020 General Election.

Combined with absentee and early voting, there have been 79,496 votes cast as of 4 p.m. in 2024 compared to 82,961 in 2020 at 4 p.m. In 2016 at 4 p.m. there were 73,088 votes cast.

 
(when (many) people panicked that we were all going to die, if we had any contact with other human beings)
I'm trying to understand the tone of your parenthetical because I hope you're not implying that many people didn't die of Covid due to contact with other human beings or that the panic wasn't warranted. Are you challenging the over 1 million US deaths due to Covid?
 
I think reading anything into anything based on line length, random interviews with voters who are comfortable disclosing who they voted for on camera for all the world to see, the composition of people at various precincts, exit polling, people saying "I was voter #___ this year at __:___ o'clock, last time I was voter # ___ at ___:___ o'clock" etc., etc., is basically astrology. I think I may still be scarred from a previous election now many moons ago, where the early indications from exit polling were great for the candidate I preferred and they ended up losing pretty convincingly.

I'm moderately interested in some of the breakdowns in party affiliation and gender as they come out, I guess. But broadly speaking, I'm trying really hard to ignore all of that equivalent of yard sign counting going on. Can't wait for real numbers!
Yeah, I think it was 2012 when exit polls were reported on NPR to show Obama clearly winning NC. A few hours later it all reversed.
 
Great question. Per Google, VCU is 65 percent female. That would probably explain what I am seeing right there.
Totally off topic, but wow, didn't realize VCU had hit that demographic tipping point. I've heard the same thing's happened at Tulane and has led to some problems.
 
Exit polls won’t tell us anything about who is going to win. They will be used once we know who won to create a narrative about why they won, although those narratives are usually facile. This is the silliest part of election night, the few hours before returns come in, and the only data the pundits have are exit polls. It always turns out to be complete nonsense.
 
So how does the rigging work? Photocopier?
LOL, Sky, I was going to say that I am always amenable to some vote rigging, assuming a discreet payment (some people may call it a "bribe" but it's all semantics) be made to me. Perhaps a bitcoin transfer into my "wallet". But I may be able to fabricate only a limited number of votes. It may look suspicious if there are 10,000 votes coming from a town with 401 registered voters.
 
It’s being reported right now that there are very long lines in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, but not the city proper. Not sure that’s a great sign.
It probably depends on which suburbs we are talking about. In 2020, the nearer suburbs (Allegheny county) went for Biden, while the further out places went for Trump.

Biden actually performed slightly worse than Hillary within the city limits of Pittsburgh and Philly, but made significant gains in the suburbs. One of the big stories of this election will likely be whether the “blueing of the suburbs” continues.
 
Harris is working the p

If he loses (or looks like he's heading for defeat), I bet the bottom falls out on it tomorrow.
Most definitely. It’s going down in after hours trading now. That means the market is either trading on speculation that he’s going to lose, new information at he is going to lose, locking in profits or hedging bets. Personally I wouldn’t take movement as an indicator for the election until later in the night and by then everyone will know the status.
 
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Most definitely. It’s going down in after hours trading now. That means the market is either trading on speculation that he’s going to lose, new information at he is going to lose, locking in profits or hedging bets. Personally I would movement as a indicator for the election until later in the night and by then everyone will know the status.
I guess when the market opens tomorrow there's a good chance it's either trading at $100 or $2. What a strange world we live in.
 
By two years, I think you mean the last nine months. Covid wasn't a thing in January 2019.
Maybe my memory is faulty but didn't Covid hit the US in the spring of 2020 (I believe the NCAA Men's BB tournament was cancelled in March of 2020?) and we began to have many of the shutdowns around the country (cancelling in person schooling and restaurants shutting down in-person service, businesses having employees work from home, etc. in the late Spring/early Summer of 2020). And wasn't DT president of the country until January 2023? Maybe my math is wrong but isn't that more than two years that we were dealing with the fallout from the pandemic, when there was massive federal spending to try to keep the economy from totally cratering?
 
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