2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election

  • 269-269 Tie - I am someone who likes maximum chaos

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Harris wins 270-285 EVs - She basically wins by one or two states

    Votes: 14 16.3%

  • Harris wins 285-305 EVs - a close race, but she largely sweeps the swing states

    Votes: 36 41.9%

  • Harris wins 306+ EVs - Ann Selzer was right!! It ain't actually that close

    Votes: 21 24.4%

  • Trump wins 270-285 EVs - The race where it doesn't get called until next week

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Trump wins 285-305 EVs - The 2016 sequel

    Votes: 6 7.0%

  • Trump wins 306+ EVs - The MAGA Mandate, Harris concedes by midnight

    Votes: 3 3.5%
  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .
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acdevil said:
For those that follow him, bouzy has his final prediction with a Kamala landslide (including Florida) and Dems getting to 50 senate seats.
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That guy has gone all-in on Florida. Which, if it works out for him, great. But I'm not feeling that one at all. He's already whiffed on the early vote composition data, so he's going to really need the R-to-D crossover and independent vote swinging hard to Dem for his call not to look really bad. The party affiliation ballot advantage is about 1 million as of this morning's count.

I think Harris is going to win comfortably overall, but I'm not feeling his prediction of Florida for Harris right now.
 
CDu said:
PredictIt bounced back to land in Trump's favor as well. I'm on record as saying the betting markets aren't any better at predicting the election than the polls, so we'll see how it goes tonight and tomorrow.
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PackMan97 said:
Polymarket had been moving toward Harris this week but has reversed all the recent gains and is now at 62% Trump and 38% Harris. We'll see what it's like later today.
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I've mentioned this before in this thread but I watched an interview last Summer with a statistics professors (at Rutgers, I believe) who has studied both polls and betting markets and he said that the betting markets were much better predictors of election results than the polls. I have no clue if this is true but that is his belief, based on his research.

Also, this may mean nothing but the Trump Truth Social stock (symbol: DJT) is now up about 25% in the past two days, including today's trading. It was over $50 per share 10 days ago and then plummeted to below $30 per share and is now back up to $38/share or so. Maybe some investors are taking a flyer on the stock, with the assumption that if Trump wins, the stock price will jump in value?
 
duke79 said:
I've mentioned this before in this thread but I watched an interview last Summer with a statistics professors (at Rutgers, I believe) who has studied both polls and betting markets and he said that the betting markets were much better predictors of election results than the polls. I have no clue if this is true but that is his belief, based on his research.

Also, this may mean nothing but the Trump Truth Social stock (symbol: DJT) is now up about 25% in the past two days, including today's trading. It was over $50 per share 10 days ago and then plummeted to below $30 per share and is now back up to $38/share or so. Maybe some investors are taking a flyer on the stock, with the assumption that if Trump wins, the stock price will jump in value?
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It's a stock with high upside if Trump wins, so maybe investors think it's worth hedging for and if there's even a 25% chance of a 200% gain, then its' worth it mathematically. The valuations of the company are completely out of whack with its revenues, but a Trump win would definitely make the current pricing likely low. It's basically a speculative meme stock a la Gamestop and AMC were in the past.
 
duke79 said:
I've mentioned this before in this thread but I watched an interview last Summer with a statistics professors (at Rutgers, I believe) who has studied both polls and betting markets and he said that the betting markets were much better predictors of election results than the polls. I have no clue if this is true but that is his belief, based on his research.

Also, this may mean nothing but the Trump Truth Social stock (symbol: DJT) is now up about 25% in the past two days, including today's trading. It was over $50 per share 10 days ago and then plummeted to below $30 per share and is now back up to $38/share or so. Maybe some investors are taking a flyer on the stock, with the assumption that if Trump wins, the stock price will jump in value?
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The betting markets have been subject to bigtime influence like Elon Musk signal boosting Polymarket several times and that French billionaire dropping millions on Trump, I would not trust that data to be an indicator of anything.
 
HoKogan said:
The betting markets have been subject to bigtime influence like Elon Musk signal boosting Polymarket several times and that French billionaire dropping millions on Trump, I would not trust that data to be an indicator of anything.
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ya, markets can't be that opaque and meaningful at the same time.
 
SouthernDukie said:
Not feeling good at all about this election. I fear the 7/1 margin of those thinking Harris will win tonight (according to the DBR poll) may be in utter shock later tonight. I'm not happy about all the early Republican voting because as of late the GOP has pushed day of voting. Steven and I had a discussion about this and he's sure Dems will easily outpace Republicans today, but I'm concerned the opposite will be true. We'll see.

Also not confident that the Women vote necessarily means that a solid percentage of GOP Haley-type women will automatically swing over and vote for Kamala Harris. What if they just leave the President portion of their ballot blank? That could happen.

We could know who's going to win early *if* Harris takes either/both of Georgia and NC. If that happens, it's game over. On the other hand, if both those states are called for Trump early we'll have to sweat it out a bit longer. And if any of the 3 upper Midwest swing states go for Trump (say we hear he wins Michigan by 10/11 PM tonight) then it's over as well.

The only swing state I think is NOT in play is AZ. I'm confident that will go to Trump. Kinda think NV will ultimately go to Trump as well, unless the Abortion Blue wave is super strong. In that case, Harris will win big.
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This election is all about the vibes for me. Two days ago I was Stevenvibing today I am Southernvibing.
 
duke79 said:
I've mentioned this before in this thread but I watched an interview last Summer with a statistics professors (at Rutgers, I believe) who has studied both polls and betting markets and he said that the betting markets were much better predictors of election results than the polls. I have no clue if this is true but that is his belief, based on his research.

Also, this may mean nothing but the Trump Truth Social stock (symbol: DJT) is now up about 25% in the past two days, including today's trading. It was over $50 per share 10 days ago and then plummeted to below $30 per share and is now back up to $38/share or so. Maybe some investors are taking a flyer on the stock, with the assumption that if Trump wins, the stock price will jump in value?
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The betting markets whiffed (like everyone else) in 2016. They made a hard late push towards Trump in 2020 that ultimately proved wrong. So I wouldn't say with any conviction that they have been accurate in the past.

This cycle, because they've gotten press, I think the betting markets have been influenced by outside forces. There has been WAY too much fluctuation (in both directions) without any meaningful reason for said fluctuation. And we now know that the Polymarket movement was driven by some random dude in France laying a massive bet, which I suspect has driven a lot of the noise in the betting markets.

I am definitely not saying that the betting markets will be wrong. I'm just saying I don't think they are terribly informative given their VERY short history. It's basically an N of 1 (ish) election at this point, and even that 1 is questionable.
 
PackMan97 said:
Say what you want about them....they had the BEST Saturday morning theme song...I challenge anyone to find a better one!

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Surely you jest. Looney Tunes, Scooby-Doo, and Jonny Quest are all far superior. And Josie and the I'm a real wanker for saying this. I'm a real wanker for saying this. Cats.
 
Right, the betting market might pick the right winner (it has a 50/50 shot) but its not going to be a reliable indicator on the electorate.
 
OK, I talked to my father, the former Duke statistics professor. Given what we know about the large bets placed for Trump by those trying to influence the market, this year's election betting markets bear no resemblance to previous election betting markets and the predictive value of this year's market is unknown as a result.
 
Kdogg said:
In school they use to take us into the forests for science field trips and would tells us the rhythm "If it's black, fight back. If it's brown, lie down” even though we have no brown bears in the state.
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What they leave out is "if it's white, say 'good night'." Thankfully, there isn't much threat of polar bear encounter here in NC, outside of the NC Zoo.
 
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