2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

What will be the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election

  • 269-269 Tie - I am someone who likes maximum chaos

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Harris wins 270-285 EVs - She basically wins by one or two states

    Votes: 14 16.3%

  • Harris wins 285-305 EVs - a close race, but she largely sweeps the swing states

    Votes: 36 41.9%

  • Harris wins 306+ EVs - Ann Selzer was right!! It ain't actually that close

    Votes: 21 24.4%

  • Trump wins 270-285 EVs - The race where it doesn't get called until next week

    Votes: 3 3.5%

  • Trump wins 285-305 EVs - The 2016 sequel

    Votes: 6 7.0%

  • Trump wins 306+ EVs - The MAGA Mandate, Harris concedes by midnight

    Votes: 3 3.5%
  • Total voters
    86
  • Poll closed .
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SkyBrickey said:
The more I understand about the Anne Selzer poll - and her history of putting out surprise polls - the more confident I am that tomorrow will be a huge day for Harris.

The Selzer poll had Biden -18 in June, Harris -4 in September, and Harris +3 over the weekend.

She is not trying to model off past elections at all to predict results. She is doing polling the old-fashioned way of talking to 1,000+ Iowans to find 800 who have either voted or will definitely vote and then tweaking the weighting of each of the 800 to match the Iowa census. Essentially she's not trying to forecast turnout - she's letting the voters tell her who is turning out. I don't think any of the major pollsters are taking this approach which would seem to explain why she's such an outlier.

It's been highly accurate the past 4 election cycles and foretold a surprise Trump victory in 2016 and a surprise very close election in 2020.

There is no logical reason her poll would be off this time around and even if she misses wildly by like 6 points and Iowa is Trump +3, that should still predict a big national win for Harris.

And the fact that Repub pollsters Emerson and IinsiderAdv just came out with big Trump leading polls in Iowa shows that the pollsters are cooking the data unless you believe Selzer's methodology is suddenly broken after being very precise for many years.

The best critique of the Selzer poll in my mind is not that it's off but instead that Iowa is not representative this cycle because its recent 6-week abortion ban has overly energized women in Iowa in a way we won't see in the other battleground states. Ok, maybe. But the 7-point move toward Harris from Sept to now in Selzer's poll has all happened after the July abortion ban.

Maybe this will be the cycle that Selzer's poll is wildly inaccurate, but I believe the other explanation is WAY more plausible. Modeling 2024 election turnout off 2020 election turnout is mistakenly skewing the polls in Trump's favor.
Click to expand...

There are polls with similar methodology in Nebraska and Kansas showing equally pro-Harris results, FWIW. Not trying to get my hopes up too much ...
 
Jon Ralston is on MSNBC explaining his prediction. This an interesting graphic. If anyone ever needs an illustration for the times we live in...


IMG_20241104_154641913_HDR.jpg
 
Nrrrrvous said:
There is a huge, hand-painted sign on 460 in the middle of VA that says "If you vote for Harris U R A idiot" (at least they avoided the whole your/you're thing) There is also another nearby that says "Jesus would vote for Trump" and another that says "I'm voting for the convicted felon". I love rural Virginia!
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I wonder who Jesus would vote for, or would he not vote at all?
 
CameronBornAndBred said:
It wouldn't surprise me that stories of mishandled ballots have driven down the mail in count, too. It takes a leap of faith to trust your ballot will make it from your mailbox to a polling station. (I don't even trust that my Christmas cards will make it, lol.)
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Yeah, I'm still waiting on my card from last year. :mad: 😛

BTW, does everyone know that Louis DeJoy is still the Postmaster General?
 
While Trump/Harris is going to be very close here in NC, the governor's race sure won't be. If voting a straight ticket were an option, Robinson might be closer than double digits, but he'd still be toast.

North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate for governor, is leading his Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, by 17 points in a New York Times/Siena College survey released Sunday.
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www.yahoo.com

Stein tops Robinson by 17 points in North Carolina poll

North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate for governor, is leading his Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, by 17 points in a New York Times/Siena College survey released Sunday. Stein has 56 percent support of the likely electorate in North Carolina, while...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
Interesting article from a guy whose job it is to follow Harris and Trump in NC. Too much to quote, but it's worth the quick read.

Quick snippet, a notation after the Iowa poll prediction was released.
By the time these polls dropped, I may have been shocked at their margin, but I was not surprised that Harris’s campaign had drawn another ace. That’s because I had spent much of Saturday following both presidential candidates around North Carolina on the final weekend of the campaign and it had become clear to me that Harris had all the momentum, while Trump was grasping for straws.
Click to expand...
www.yahoo.com

I followed Harris and Trump round North Carolina. It’s clear who’s going to win

Eric Garcia reports from a state Trump won twice — but is now panicking about
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
dudog84 said:
Yeah, it don't matter to Jesus.

I still don't know how John Turturro didn't get a Best Supporting Actor nomination for that part. Maybe it was too small. Though there are no small parts, right Bostondevil?
Click to expand...

He wasn’t even the best supporting actor in that movie.
 
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