2024 Presidential Election -- new thread for the final week

[Skydog]

Since individual polls have large MOEs I think it would be much more informative to see a weighted average of the last month or so of NYTs swing state polls, with heavier weight on more recent ones.

 

[MartyClark]

Thanksgiving at our house should be interesting.

19 people. 2 ardent pro Trumpers. 3 Conservatives (my wife and I included) who voted for Harris. 1 ornery, know it all independent who is ready to argue any side of any issue. 2 undecideds (my 5 year old grandson and a nephew with a disability). The rest are committed liberals who think that Joe and Kamala are both too conservative.

I have learned, the hard way, that multi generational political discussions at Thanksgiving are not productive.

I love all these folks but need to broker a Thanksgiving cease fire.

 

[AGDukesky]

Thanksgiving at our house should be interesting.

19 people. 2 ardent pro Trumpers. 3 Conservatives (my wife and I included) who voted for Harris. 1 ornery, know it all independent who is ready to argue any side of any issue. 2 undecideds (my 5 year old grandson and a nephew with a disability). The rest are committed liberals who think that Joe and Kamala are both too conservative.

I have learned, the hard way, that multi generational political discussions at Thanksgiving are not productive.

I love all these folks but need to broker a Thanksgiving cease fire.

“Pass the mashed potatoes please”

“Socialist!!”

 

[budwom]

And THIS is why you are the most interesting man on DBR.

as you know I'm as dull as people get, but I have found myself in a lot of very interesting situations just by chance....

 

[rsvman]

Except this one is actually true!

Damn, I might be getting myself into some very hot water

Anyway, all eyes on Tuesday. I simply CANNOT WAIT to get to it!

Wait, are you telling me that those stories are not true?!!!??!?

 

[dudog84]

Thanksgiving at our house should be interesting.

19 people. 2 ardent pro Trumpers. 3 Conservatives (my wife and I included) who voted for Harris. 1 ornery, know it all independent who is ready to argue any side of any issue. 2 undecideds (my 5 year old grandson and a nephew with a disability). The rest are committed liberals who think that Joe and Kamala are both too conservative.

I have learned, the hard way, that multi generational political discussions at Thanksgiving are not productive.

I love all these folks but need to broker a Thanksgiving cease fire.

Who gets to pull the wishbone? I'm hoping the 5yo and nephew.

 

[OldPhiKap]

Survived a trip to see my folks and a 40th high school reunion without much politics. Maybe it’s not as heated an issue in CT as it is in GA.

Saw the Harris/Walz plane on the tarmac when I landed in ATL. Hope it does not impact my connecting flight home.

Home stretch. Get ‘er done.

 

[wavedukefan70s]

Thanksgiving at our house should be interesting.

19 people. 2 ardent pro Trumpers. 3 Conservatives (my wife and I included) who voted for Harris. 1 ornery, know it all independent who is ready to argue any side of any issue. 2 undecideds (my 5 year old grandson and a nephew with a disability). The rest are committed liberals who think that Joe and Kamala are both too conservative.

I have learned, the hard way, that multi generational political discussions at Thanksgiving are not productive.

I love all these folks but need to broker a Thanksgiving cease fire.

I thought one of us having to tell my brother in law he needs to stop cooking was a issue at Thanksgiving
I'm not envious. I drive a separate vehicle when I've had enough I'm out. If politics start I'm leaving. Uber or walking whatever it takes.

 

[OldPhiKap]

I thought one of us having to tell my brother in law he needs to stop cooking was a issue at Thanksgiving

Can you show that the vote was not rigged, or that only eligible attendees voted?

 

[robed deity]

I thought one of us having to tell my brother in law he needs to stop cooking was a issue at Thanksgiving
I'm not envious. I drive a separate vehicle when I've had enough I'm out. If politics start I'm leaving. Uber or walking whatever it takes.

We always have a "no politics" rule at our Thanksgiving. I got in trouble one year when I said that it's not good to elect convicted felons or sexual predators. Who knew that was politics?

 

[dlmzzz]

Literally laughing out loud right now!

So, about that pesky state of Iowa…any word?

So, the margin of error in that poll is reported at 6.7%. So, it is completely possible, even if that poll is accurate, that Trump actually leads Iowa by 3 or 4 %. The next point is that if Trump only wins Iowa by 3-4 %, he is very likely to lose a Large number of swing states.

 

[Skydog]

It’s hard to keep up with the rules on this forum - is it out of bounds to ask why Trump mimicked performing fellatio on his microphone?

 

[AGDukesky]

I need some convincing why what happens in Iowa has any relation to other states- especially when we are talking about such small margins. What is the logic?

 

[ClemmonsDevil]

I need some convincing why what happens in Iowa has any relation to other states- especially when we are talking about such small margins. What is the logic?

States are relatively well correlated with other states around them. Especially if they have similar demographic makeups. So if Iowa is trending blue then that is pretty suggestive that Nebraska's second district and Wisconsin are trending even bluer.

 

[missfinch]

Survived a trip to see my folks and a 40th high school reunion without much politics. Maybe it’s not as heated an issue in CT as it is in GA.

Saw the Harris/Walz plane on the tarmac when I landed in ATL. Hope it does not impact my connecting flight home.

Home stretch. Get ‘er done.

Son2, who’s a legal intern with the DOJ voting rights division, is heading from DC to ATL today. Not sure exactly what the assignment is other than “bopping around locations” in Fulton county with 2 attorneys from the US Attorney’s office from the northern district of Georgia. Hope it’s uneventful.

 

[AGDukesky]

States are relatively well correlated with other states around them. Especially if they have similar demographic makeups. So if Iowa is trending blue then that is pretty suggestive that Nebraska's second district and Wisconsin are trending even bluer.

By “correlated” do you mean historical voting patterns? Or demographic breakdown? I mean I get that the states have some common characteristics but there are many factors that impact how people vote. Unless the states always vote the same percentage-wise it seems like a lazy comparison.

(Just channeling my inner-Southern)

 

[Furniture]

Except this one is actually true!

Damn, I might be getting myself into some very hot water

Anyway, all eyes on Tuesday. I simply CANNOT WAIT to get to it!

When you are stressed about the election do something. Volunteer. Make sure your friends and neighbors have voted.

 

[MartyClark]

Who gets to pull the wishbone? I'm hoping the 5yo and nephew.

Probably my wife who everybody loves and respects. Me on the other hand . . .

 

[SkyBrickey]

Is it possible that the new normal of intense vulgarity does not appeal to Hawkeye people? Spent a summer there (by accident) years ago. Nice folks. Would like to think they know grotesque behavior when they see it

Well, sadly I have a more cynical view of it.

If she outperforms the swing states in Iowa, I would bet it's because Iowans haven't been exposed to a steady stream of "evil Kamala" ads on their TVs and phones for 100 days. Negative ads work. In Georgia, Kamala is shoved in my face daily alongside Latino gang members and transgender prisoners.

Iowans may be judging these two candidates more on silly things like their records, their speeches/interviews, and their debate performances.

 

[dudog84]

So, the margin of error in that poll is reported at 6.7%. So, it is completely possible, even if that poll is accurate, that Trump actually leads Iowa by 3 or 4 %. The next point is that if Trump only wins Iowa by 3-4 %, he is very likely to lose a Large number of swing states.

Not sure where you are getting your info, but the MOE is 3.4%.

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”

www.desmoinesregister.com

My question about this poll: Does it motivate Ds, who thought their vote didn't matter, to get out and vote? Or does it motivate Rs, who thought it was sown up so they didn't need to? Whichever way it works might make the difference.