6:30 also allows time to transition Cameron from the 1pm Volleyball game that day.
2024-25 Schedule Intel
- Thread starter gam7
- Start date
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Any game we can get against a high major power conference team to fit into the schedule in February is great as far as I 'm concerned. Everyone needs to be playing more of those late season OOC games.
I'm guessing they couldn't get a guarantee from the ACC that the SMU football game would be scheduled for noon, allowing for a night bball game. So they had to move it to Sunday. (Plus, having both a football and bball game on the same day taxes the support staff.) Needed to avoid the bulk of the NFL schedule, so a later start was set.
CrazyNotCrazie
Member
NYC is always a destination - not sure why you are hating. I loved the holiday season games here but in some ways this is better. For some people the holidays are busy so this might be easier.
Plus the late season non-conference game is a huge plus.
Ehh, not hating.
Thurber Whyte
Member
February 22 is in the middle of the school system's February break. Many local fans might be out of town.
With non-con schedules mostly announced or leaked (and the few still to be added likely to just be cupcakes), it seemed ripe for a deep dive into how Duke’s schedule stacks up against its (relative) peer power conference schools.
On balance, Duke’s schedule is very, very good, with 5 games against Torvik projected Q1 opponents (all in Q1-A: #1-15 home, #1-25 neutral, #1-40 away), but has some weakness at the bottom as we have 3 Q3 games (two at the bottom end of Q3) and the 3 Q4 games include 2 against the dregs, teams in the bottom half of Q4, below #260:
Duke Non-Con
Q1 (5): Kansas (N-#4), Auburn (#7), @ Arizona (#10), Illinois (N-#17), Kentucky (N-#23)
Q2 (0):
Q3 (3): George Mason (#85), Seattle (#136), Wofford (#150)
Q4 (3): Maine (#212), Incarnate Word (#292), Army (#325)
I’d rank Duke’s non-con schedule about 4th, slightly behind those of Alabama, Auburn (which is set to play #1, #2 and #3!!), and North Carolina.
Alabama Non-Con
Q1 (6): Houston (N-#1), @ UNC (#6), Creighton (#13), @ Purdue (#16), Illinois (#17), Rutgers (N-#19)
Q2 (2): McNeese St. (#65), Notre Dame (N-#68)
Q3 (3): Arkansas St. (#105), Kent St. (#149), NC Ashville (#150)
Q4 (2): S. Dakota St. (#182), @ N. Dakota (#259)
Auburn Non-Con (2 games left to announce but likely cupcakes)
Q1 (6-7): Houston (N-#1), @ Duke (#2), Iowa St. (N-#3), [maybe UNC (N-#6)], Purdue (N-#16), [likely 1 of U. Conn. (N-#12)/Mich St. (N-#18)/Memphis (N-#26)], Ohio St. (N-#33)
Q2 (0-1): [maybe Dayton (#58)]
Q3 (1-2): Vermont (#102), [unlikely to play Colorado (#115)]
Q4 (3): Georgia St. (#206), N. Alabama (#207), Monmouth (#236)
North Carolina Non-Con
Q1 (5-6): @ Kansas (#4), [Iowa St. (N-#3) or Auburn (N-#7)], Bama (#8), [likely 1 of U. Conn (N-#12)/Mich St. (N-#18)/Memphis (N-#26)], UCLA (N-#24), Florida (N-#35)
Q2 (1): Dayton (N-#58)
Q3 (1-2): [unlikely to play Colorado (N-#115)], @ Hawaii (#189)
Q4 (4): La Salle (#165), American (#221), Elon (#270), Campbell (#310).
It’s hard to argue that these three don’t have tougher schedules than Duke. While the SEC teams have two extra non-con slots, that’s balanced against their objectively tougher league schedules – they have zero Q3 SEC games, as Oklahoma (at #67) is Torvik's lowest projected SEC team, whereas Duke has five projected Q3 ACC games, and UNC has four.
Alabama has 6 Q1 games (also all Q1-A) vs. Duke’s 5, two Q2 games vs. Duke’s none (and one of those is against mid-major darling McNeese St., the kind of opponent teams in the Top 10 almost never willingly schedule), has only 2 Q4 games vs. Duke’s 3, and the only one of those that is in the bottom half of Q4 is on the road.
Auburn’s and Carolina’s schedules will be influenced a bit by whether they win their first games in Maui, but even if they lose those each of them would still match Duke’s 5 Q1 games. And, Auburn was smart in scheduling all three of its Q4 games against teams in the top half of Q4.
I’d then slot Duke in the next tier, basically in line with the schedules of U.Conn, Kansas and Purdue:
U.Conn Non-Con (+2 more, likely cupcakes)
Q1 (5-6): Gonz (N-#9), @ Texas (#11), Baylor (#14), [[likely Mich. St. (#18)], Memphis (#26), [likely 1 of Iowa St. (#3)/ UNC (#6)/Auburn. (#7) (MTE)]
Q2 (0-1): [not likely to play Dayton (N-#58) (MTE)]
Q3 (0-1): [could play Colorado (N-#115) (MTE)]
Q4 (3+): Le Moyne (#309), New Hampshire (#319), Sacred Heart (#346)
Kansas Non-Con
Q1 (5): Duke (N-#2), North Carolina (#6), @ Creighton (#13), Mich. St. (N-#18), @ Mizzou (#61)
Q2 (1): N.C. St. (#55)
Q3 (1): Oakland (#156)
Q4 (4): Brown (#169), Furman (#173), UNCW (#177), Howard (#251)
Purdue Non-Con
Q1 (5): Auburn (N-#7), Alabama (#8), Tex. A&M (N-#21), @ Marquette (#25), [BYU (N-#27) or Miss (N-#40)]
Q2 (1): NC St. (N-#55)
Q3 (1): Yale (#130)
Q4 (4): Toledo (#165), Tex A&M-CC (#184), N. Kentucky (#189), Marshall (#265),
While U.Conn would get a 6th Q1 game if it beats Memphis in Maui and Michigan St. beats Colorado, it is also likely to play 5 Q4 games (vs. Duke’s 3) and all of those it’s scheduled so far are below #300.
After that would come the other teams set to play 4 or 5 Q1 games (but fewer Q1-A games), depending on MTE matchups, plus some Q2s:
Texas A&M (5): Creighton (N-#13), Purdue (N-#16), Texas Tech (N-#20), Oregon (N-#42), @ UCF (#57) + 3 Q2
Marquette (5): @ Iowa St. (#3), Purdue (#16), Georgia (N-#39), @ Maryland (#42), @ Dayton (#58) + 1 Q2
Virginia (5): Tenn. (N-#5), Memphis (#26), @ Fla. (#35), [Baylor (#14)/St. John’s (#15)], Villanova (N-#44)
Baylor (4-5): @ U.Conn (#12), Gonzaga (N-#9), St. John’s (N-#15), Mich St. (N-#18), [Tenn (#5) or U.Va. (#63)]
Creighton (4): Kansas (#4), @ Alabama (#8), Texas A&M (N-#21), Oregon (N-#42) + 2 Q2
Ohio St. (4): Auburn (N-#7), Texas (N-#11), @ Texas A&M (#21), Kentucky (N-#23) + 1 Q2
Illinois (4): Duke (N-#2), Tennessee (#5), Alabama (N-#8), Arkansas (N-#36) + 1 Q2
Kentucky (4): Duke (N-#2), Gonzaga (N-#9), Ohio St. (N-#33), @ Clemson (#46) + 1 Q2
Tennessee (4): [Baylor (N#14) or St. John’s (N-#15)], @ Illinois (#17), Miami (#29), @ Louisville (#62) + 2 Q2
N.C. St. (4): @ Kansas (#4), Texas (#11), Purdue (N-#16), [BYU (N-#27) or Miss. (N-#40)]
However, of this group, relative to their Top 20 Torvik projections, I’d probably slap Tennessee and Illinois for playing too many Q4 games: they each have 5 Q4 games, all below #300. Also, Virginia gets a nod of disapproval for having 6 Q4 games (five against teams below #300), but their being in a rebuilding mode arguably justifies that.
I'll do a second post to finish this out with the Razzies.
On balance, Duke’s schedule is very, very good, with 5 games against Torvik projected Q1 opponents (all in Q1-A: #1-15 home, #1-25 neutral, #1-40 away), but has some weakness at the bottom as we have 3 Q3 games (two at the bottom end of Q3) and the 3 Q4 games include 2 against the dregs, teams in the bottom half of Q4, below #260:
Duke Non-Con
Q1 (5): Kansas (N-#4), Auburn (#7), @ Arizona (#10), Illinois (N-#17), Kentucky (N-#23)
Q2 (0):
Q3 (3): George Mason (#85), Seattle (#136), Wofford (#150)
Q4 (3): Maine (#212), Incarnate Word (#292), Army (#325)
I’d rank Duke’s non-con schedule about 4th, slightly behind those of Alabama, Auburn (which is set to play #1, #2 and #3!!), and North Carolina.
Alabama Non-Con
Q1 (6): Houston (N-#1), @ UNC (#6), Creighton (#13), @ Purdue (#16), Illinois (#17), Rutgers (N-#19)
Q2 (2): McNeese St. (#65), Notre Dame (N-#68)
Q3 (3): Arkansas St. (#105), Kent St. (#149), NC Ashville (#150)
Q4 (2): S. Dakota St. (#182), @ N. Dakota (#259)
Auburn Non-Con (2 games left to announce but likely cupcakes)
Q1 (6-7): Houston (N-#1), @ Duke (#2), Iowa St. (N-#3), [maybe UNC (N-#6)], Purdue (N-#16), [likely 1 of U. Conn. (N-#12)/Mich St. (N-#18)/Memphis (N-#26)], Ohio St. (N-#33)
Q2 (0-1): [maybe Dayton (#58)]
Q3 (1-2): Vermont (#102), [unlikely to play Colorado (#115)]
Q4 (3): Georgia St. (#206), N. Alabama (#207), Monmouth (#236)
North Carolina Non-Con
Q1 (5-6): @ Kansas (#4), [Iowa St. (N-#3) or Auburn (N-#7)], Bama (#8), [likely 1 of U. Conn (N-#12)/Mich St. (N-#18)/Memphis (N-#26)], UCLA (N-#24), Florida (N-#35)
Q2 (1): Dayton (N-#58)
Q3 (1-2): [unlikely to play Colorado (N-#115)], @ Hawaii (#189)
Q4 (4): La Salle (#165), American (#221), Elon (#270), Campbell (#310).
It’s hard to argue that these three don’t have tougher schedules than Duke. While the SEC teams have two extra non-con slots, that’s balanced against their objectively tougher league schedules – they have zero Q3 SEC games, as Oklahoma (at #67) is Torvik's lowest projected SEC team, whereas Duke has five projected Q3 ACC games, and UNC has four.
Alabama has 6 Q1 games (also all Q1-A) vs. Duke’s 5, two Q2 games vs. Duke’s none (and one of those is against mid-major darling McNeese St., the kind of opponent teams in the Top 10 almost never willingly schedule), has only 2 Q4 games vs. Duke’s 3, and the only one of those that is in the bottom half of Q4 is on the road.
Auburn’s and Carolina’s schedules will be influenced a bit by whether they win their first games in Maui, but even if they lose those each of them would still match Duke’s 5 Q1 games. And, Auburn was smart in scheduling all three of its Q4 games against teams in the top half of Q4.
I’d then slot Duke in the next tier, basically in line with the schedules of U.Conn, Kansas and Purdue:
U.Conn Non-Con (+2 more, likely cupcakes)
Q1 (5-6): Gonz (N-#9), @ Texas (#11), Baylor (#14), [[likely Mich. St. (#18)], Memphis (#26), [likely 1 of Iowa St. (#3)/ UNC (#6)/Auburn. (#7) (MTE)]
Q2 (0-1): [not likely to play Dayton (N-#58) (MTE)]
Q3 (0-1): [could play Colorado (N-#115) (MTE)]
Q4 (3+): Le Moyne (#309), New Hampshire (#319), Sacred Heart (#346)
Kansas Non-Con
Q1 (5): Duke (N-#2), North Carolina (#6), @ Creighton (#13), Mich. St. (N-#18), @ Mizzou (#61)
Q2 (1): N.C. St. (#55)
Q3 (1): Oakland (#156)
Q4 (4): Brown (#169), Furman (#173), UNCW (#177), Howard (#251)
Purdue Non-Con
Q1 (5): Auburn (N-#7), Alabama (#8), Tex. A&M (N-#21), @ Marquette (#25), [BYU (N-#27) or Miss (N-#40)]
Q2 (1): NC St. (N-#55)
Q3 (1): Yale (#130)
Q4 (4): Toledo (#165), Tex A&M-CC (#184), N. Kentucky (#189), Marshall (#265),
While U.Conn would get a 6th Q1 game if it beats Memphis in Maui and Michigan St. beats Colorado, it is also likely to play 5 Q4 games (vs. Duke’s 3) and all of those it’s scheduled so far are below #300.
After that would come the other teams set to play 4 or 5 Q1 games (but fewer Q1-A games), depending on MTE matchups, plus some Q2s:
Texas A&M (5): Creighton (N-#13), Purdue (N-#16), Texas Tech (N-#20), Oregon (N-#42), @ UCF (#57) + 3 Q2
Marquette (5): @ Iowa St. (#3), Purdue (#16), Georgia (N-#39), @ Maryland (#42), @ Dayton (#58) + 1 Q2
Virginia (5): Tenn. (N-#5), Memphis (#26), @ Fla. (#35), [Baylor (#14)/St. John’s (#15)], Villanova (N-#44)
Baylor (4-5): @ U.Conn (#12), Gonzaga (N-#9), St. John’s (N-#15), Mich St. (N-#18), [Tenn (#5) or U.Va. (#63)]
Creighton (4): Kansas (#4), @ Alabama (#8), Texas A&M (N-#21), Oregon (N-#42) + 2 Q2
Ohio St. (4): Auburn (N-#7), Texas (N-#11), @ Texas A&M (#21), Kentucky (N-#23) + 1 Q2
Illinois (4): Duke (N-#2), Tennessee (#5), Alabama (N-#8), Arkansas (N-#36) + 1 Q2
Kentucky (4): Duke (N-#2), Gonzaga (N-#9), Ohio St. (N-#33), @ Clemson (#46) + 1 Q2
Tennessee (4): [Baylor (N#14) or St. John’s (N-#15)], @ Illinois (#17), Miami (#29), @ Louisville (#62) + 2 Q2
N.C. St. (4): @ Kansas (#4), Texas (#11), Purdue (N-#16), [BYU (N-#27) or Miss. (N-#40)]
However, of this group, relative to their Top 20 Torvik projections, I’d probably slap Tennessee and Illinois for playing too many Q4 games: they each have 5 Q4 games, all below #300. Also, Virginia gets a nod of disapproval for having 6 Q4 games (five against teams below #300), but their being in a rebuilding mode arguably justifies that.
I'll do a second post to finish this out with the Razzies.
Next is a group of teams with mostly respectable schedules, set to play 3-4 (or in Iowa St.’s case, as many as 5) Q1 games, but that have some big flaws -- for example, Wake and Clemson both have 5 Q4 games (all below #256), Arkansas has 5 Q5 games (all below #300), Iowa St. has 6 Q4 games (5 below #296), and UCLA has 7 Q4 games (out of their total of 11):
Iowa St. (3-5): [could play UNC (N-#6)], Auburn (N-#7), [likely 1 of U. Conn (N-#12), Mich St. (N-#18) or Memphis (N-#25)], Marquette (#25), @ Iowa (#45)
Michigan St. (3-4): Kansas (N-#4), [U. Conn (N-#12) or Memphis (N-#25)], Baylor (N-#14), [likely 1 of Iowa St. (N-#3)/Auburn (N-#7) or UNC (N-#6)]
Arizona (3-4): Duke (#2), [Likely Gonz. (N-#9 or Indiana (N-#33)], UCLA (N-#24), @ Wisc (#41) +1 Q2
Clemson (4)): Kentucky (#23), Memphis (#26), @ S. Carolina (#54), @ Boise St. (#69) + 1-2 Q2
St. John’s (3-4): Baylor (#14), [Tennesee (#5) or Virginia (#63)], Kansas St. (#30), Georgia (N-#39)
Houston (3): Auburn (N-#7), Alabama (N-#8), Rutgers (N-#19) + 1 Q2
UCLA (3): N. Carolina (N-#6), Gonzaga (N-#9), Arizona (N-#10) + 1 Q2
Wake (3): @ Texas A&M (#21), Michigan (N-#34), @ Xavier (#37)
Arkansas (3+): Illinois (N-#17), @ Miami (#29), Michigan (N-#34) [has 3 open slots still]
Below that are the teams who should be sort of embarrassed given their Torvik projected rankings between #27 and #44 (including three from the Big 12 to keep an eye on as this year’s NET ranking gamers):
Michigan (2-3): Wake (N-#32), Arkansas (N-#36), [maybe Xavier (N-#37)] + 4-5 Q2 [only 3 Q4]
BYU (2-3): Ole Miss (N-#40), @ Prov. (#60), [maybe Purdue (N-#16)] + 1 Q2 [6 Q4, 4 below #272]
Wisconsin (2): Arizona (#10), @ Marquette (#25) + 3 Q2 [6 Q4, but only 2 below #300]
Villanova (2): Cincy (#28), Maryland (N-#42) + 2 Q2 [6 Q4, 4 below #278]
Florida (1-2): N. Carolina (N-#6), [likely Wake (N-#32)] + 4 Q2 [5 Q4, 4 below #269]
Kansas St. (1): @ St. John’s (#15), +3 Q2 [4 Q4, all below #240]
Cincinnati (1): Villanova (#44) + 3 Q2 [6 Q4, 4 below #249]
Finally, the worst of the worst, in descending order of shame, are:
#4, Texas (Torvik projection #11) [decent number of Q1 games offset by a whopping 8 Q4 games, an absurd 7 below #330!]:
Q1 (3-4): U.Conn (#12), [likely Tex. Tech (#20) (MTE)], Ohio St. (N-#33), @ NC St. (#55),
Q2 (1-2): Syracuse (N-#72) [unlikely to play St. Joe’s (N-#79) (MTE)]
Q3 (0):
Q4 (8): N. Mexico St. (#172), Delaware St. (#330), Chicago St. (#333), New Orleans (#337), Northwestern St. (#345), Ark-PB (#351), Houston Christian. (#352), Miss. Valley St. (#353)
#3, Texas Tech (Torvik projection #20) [weak on Q1, and 7 Q4]:
Q1 (1-2): Texas A&M (N-#21), [likely Texas (N-#11) in MTE]
Q2 (1-2): St. Joe’s (N-#79) [not likely to play Syracuse (N-#72) (MTE)]
Q3 (1): DePaul (#127)
Q4 (7): Wyoming (#170), Oral Roberts (#214), N. Colo. (#240), Lamar (#305), Northwestern St. (#345), Ark-PB (#351), Bethune-Cookman (#358)
#2, Maryland (Torvik projection #42) [8 of 11 games Q4, all below #250 - sure to draw crowds of hundreds]:
Q1 (2): Marquette (#25), Villanova (N-#44)
Q2 (1): Syracuse (N-#72)
Q3 (0):
Q4 (8): Bucknell (#252), Mt. St. Mary’s (#274), Canisius (#301), Alcorn St. (#317), Manhattan (#326), Fla A&M (#336), Mary-ES (#351), St. Francis (#352)
And the Golden Raspberry goes to...:
#1, Indiana (Torvik projection #31) [If they lose to Louisville in opener at Atlantis, will have zero Q1 games]:
Q1 (0-2): [likely Gonz. (N-#9)], [not likely to Ariz. (N-#10) (MTE)]
Q2 (1-4): S. Carolina (#54), Louisville (N-#62) [could play W. Va. (N-#83)]; [likely Prov. (N-#60) or Okla (N-#67) (MTE)]
Q3 (2): Sam Houston (#113), UT-Chatt. (#148)
Q4 (5): Winthrop (#166), UNC-G (#175), Miami (Oh) (#233), Eastern Ill. (#311), SIU-Edwards. (#313).
Iowa St. (3-5): [could play UNC (N-#6)], Auburn (N-#7), [likely 1 of U. Conn (N-#12), Mich St. (N-#18) or Memphis (N-#25)], Marquette (#25), @ Iowa (#45)
Michigan St. (3-4): Kansas (N-#4), [U. Conn (N-#12) or Memphis (N-#25)], Baylor (N-#14), [likely 1 of Iowa St. (N-#3)/Auburn (N-#7) or UNC (N-#6)]
Arizona (3-4): Duke (#2), [Likely Gonz. (N-#9 or Indiana (N-#33)], UCLA (N-#24), @ Wisc (#41) +1 Q2
Clemson (4)): Kentucky (#23), Memphis (#26), @ S. Carolina (#54), @ Boise St. (#69) + 1-2 Q2
St. John’s (3-4): Baylor (#14), [Tennesee (#5) or Virginia (#63)], Kansas St. (#30), Georgia (N-#39)
Houston (3): Auburn (N-#7), Alabama (N-#8), Rutgers (N-#19) + 1 Q2
UCLA (3): N. Carolina (N-#6), Gonzaga (N-#9), Arizona (N-#10) + 1 Q2
Wake (3): @ Texas A&M (#21), Michigan (N-#34), @ Xavier (#37)
Arkansas (3+): Illinois (N-#17), @ Miami (#29), Michigan (N-#34) [has 3 open slots still]
Below that are the teams who should be sort of embarrassed given their Torvik projected rankings between #27 and #44 (including three from the Big 12 to keep an eye on as this year’s NET ranking gamers):
Michigan (2-3): Wake (N-#32), Arkansas (N-#36), [maybe Xavier (N-#37)] + 4-5 Q2 [only 3 Q4]
BYU (2-3): Ole Miss (N-#40), @ Prov. (#60), [maybe Purdue (N-#16)] + 1 Q2 [6 Q4, 4 below #272]
Wisconsin (2): Arizona (#10), @ Marquette (#25) + 3 Q2 [6 Q4, but only 2 below #300]
Villanova (2): Cincy (#28), Maryland (N-#42) + 2 Q2 [6 Q4, 4 below #278]
Florida (1-2): N. Carolina (N-#6), [likely Wake (N-#32)] + 4 Q2 [5 Q4, 4 below #269]
Kansas St. (1): @ St. John’s (#15), +3 Q2 [4 Q4, all below #240]
Cincinnati (1): Villanova (#44) + 3 Q2 [6 Q4, 4 below #249]
Finally, the worst of the worst, in descending order of shame, are:
#4, Texas (Torvik projection #11) [decent number of Q1 games offset by a whopping 8 Q4 games, an absurd 7 below #330!]:
Q1 (3-4): U.Conn (#12), [likely Tex. Tech (#20) (MTE)], Ohio St. (N-#33), @ NC St. (#55),
Q2 (1-2): Syracuse (N-#72) [unlikely to play St. Joe’s (N-#79) (MTE)]
Q3 (0):
Q4 (8): N. Mexico St. (#172), Delaware St. (#330), Chicago St. (#333), New Orleans (#337), Northwestern St. (#345), Ark-PB (#351), Houston Christian. (#352), Miss. Valley St. (#353)
#3, Texas Tech (Torvik projection #20) [weak on Q1, and 7 Q4]:
Q1 (1-2): Texas A&M (N-#21), [likely Texas (N-#11) in MTE]
Q2 (1-2): St. Joe’s (N-#79) [not likely to play Syracuse (N-#72) (MTE)]
Q3 (1): DePaul (#127)
Q4 (7): Wyoming (#170), Oral Roberts (#214), N. Colo. (#240), Lamar (#305), Northwestern St. (#345), Ark-PB (#351), Bethune-Cookman (#358)
#2, Maryland (Torvik projection #42) [8 of 11 games Q4, all below #250 - sure to draw crowds of hundreds]:
Q1 (2): Marquette (#25), Villanova (N-#44)
Q2 (1): Syracuse (N-#72)
Q3 (0):
Q4 (8): Bucknell (#252), Mt. St. Mary’s (#274), Canisius (#301), Alcorn St. (#317), Manhattan (#326), Fla A&M (#336), Mary-ES (#351), St. Francis (#352)
And the Golden Raspberry goes to...:
#1, Indiana (Torvik projection #31) [If they lose to Louisville in opener at Atlantis, will have zero Q1 games]:
Q1 (0-2): [likely Gonz. (N-#9)], [not likely to Ariz. (N-#10) (MTE)]
Q2 (1-4): S. Carolina (#54), Louisville (N-#62) [could play W. Va. (N-#83)]; [likely Prov. (N-#60) or Okla (N-#67) (MTE)]
Q3 (2): Sam Houston (#113), UT-Chatt. (#148)
Q4 (5): Winthrop (#166), UNC-G (#175), Miami (Oh) (#233), Eastern Ill. (#311), SIU-Edwards. (#313).
Nrrrrvous
Member
A couple of quick points I'd like to add... not sure if you're planning on doing a dive into the ACC side of NET/Torvik.
Duke only had 9 Q1 games last season and went a pedestrian 5-4.
This season, as things stand, we have the opportunity for 15 Q1 games. We really want/need Miami and Wake to stay in the general top 25 range since we have H/A with both of them. If Wake can sneak up a few spots, all 6 of those (Wake/UM/UNC) games could end up being Q1 games. Right now the Home Wake is a Q2.
Our other opportunities for Q1 games are
at SMU, CLEM, SYR, UVA, and UL
We all know that things are not going to look like this come ACC time, but it's nice to see at the beginning of the season. It would be so refreshing if the ACC actually OVER performed in the non-con instead of the eggs that seem to annually get laid.
I did take a spin through the ACC and other power conferences. Obviously, it's all very subject change. But, you're certainly right that there will be a large effect driven by how Miami (#29) and Wake (#32) do relative to the cut line of #30 for being Q1 both home and away. Clemson (#46) might have a shot to move up to the Top 30 but it's hard to see any of the others behind them getting close (#52 Pitt, #55 NC St., #62 Louisville or #63 Virginia). And I agree with you that the arbitrary cliff at #75 between Q1 road/Q2 home and Q2 road/Q3 home is critical, and there are a hefty 5 ACC teams right around that range: Louisville, Virginia, #68 Notre Dame, #72 Syracuse and #74 SMU. But, everyone in the ACC is projected to be dragged down by having the most “bad” teams of the power conferences, with 6 rated #87 or below (Va. Tech, Stanford, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Cal and BC), so there’s many more chances to being playing Q3 conference games in the ACC than in other leagues.
Some key drivers of projected relative conference schedule strength I saw from the other leagues were:
SEC -- They are loaded, with 7 teams projected Top 25 (Bama, Auburn, Tenn, Texas, Texas A&M, Miss. St. and Kentucky), and another 4 (Florida, Georgia, Arkansas and Ole Miss) projected between #35-#39, so easily Q1 on the road and close to moving from Q2 to Q1 at home. And the bottom 5 teams (S. Carolina, LSU, Mizzou, Vandy and Oklahoma) are all between #54-#67, so would as of now all be Q1 road games. There’s currently zero projected SEC Q3 games, which is nuts. The main variables for the SEC will be whether Florida/Georgia/Arkansas/Miss. move up to Q1 for home games, and whether Mizzou, Vandy, and Oklahoma fall below the #75 cut line to Q1 road games.
Big 10 -- 5 teams projected safely in Q1 as Top 25 (Purdue, Illinois, Mich St., Rutgers, UCLA). Where it gets very interesting is there are another 10 teams (#31 Indiana, #33 Ohio St., #34 Michigan, #41 Wisconsin, #42 Maryland, #43 Oregon, #45 Iowa, #47 Nebraska, #48 Northwestern and #51 USC) projected as safely Q1 on the road, and at least a 3-4 of whom are not far from striking distance to move up from Q2 to Q1 at home. So, lots of potential variance there.
And then, like the ACC, the Big 10 has multiple teams right around the #75 hinge Q1 spot: #70 Minnesota, #71 Washington, and #73 Penn St. Those two leagues have all but 1 of the spots between #68 and #74, so just a few games could have outsized effect on Q1 opportunities.
Big 12 -- very top-heavy, with 5 teams projected Top 14 (Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Zona, Baylor), but 4 above #80 (Utah, West Va., Oklahoma St and Colorado), leading to more Q3 games than usual for the Big 12 – not unexpected with expansion. The key to watch there is if the 4 teams from #20-#30 (Texas Tech, BYU, Cincy, and Kansas St.) remain in the "all Q1" spots. And, then a little bit, what happens to the 4 teams near-ish to the #75 hinge between Q1 road/Q2 home and Q2 road/Q3 home (#57 UCF, #64 Arizona St., #80 Utah, #83 West Va.).
Big East -- also top heavy, with 4 teams projected #12-#25 (U.Conn, Creighton, St. John’s, Marquette), and 3 above #90 (Seton Hall, Georgetown DePaul). Their swing teams for potential “all Q1” purposes are Xavier at #37 and #41 Nova, and the only one close to #75 hinge is #77 Butler.
Looking at how what you noted is Duke's 15 projected Q1 games across the full schedule compares to those of key peer teams, shows that we would have fewer Q1 games than nearly all of them, but close enough that I don't think the difference would carry that much weight:
Duke -- 15 Q1, 5 Q2, 8 Q3, 3 Q4.
Auburn [depending on Maui matchups] -- 18-19 Q1, 6-7 Q2, 0-1 Q3, likely will have 5 Q4.
Alabama -- 18 Q1, 8 Q2, 3 Q3, 2 Q4.
Kansas -- 18 Q1, 4 Q2, 5 Q3, 4 Q4.
Purdue -- 17 Q1, 9 Q2, 1 Q3, 4 Q4.
Kentucky -- 17 Q1, 6 Q2, 2 Q3, 6 Q4.
North Carolina [depending on Maui matchups] -- 15-16 Q1, 7 Q2, 6-7 Q3, 4 Q4.
U.Conn [depending on Maui matchups] -- 13-15 Q1, 7-8 Q2, 4-5 Q3, likely 5 Q4.
Some key drivers of projected relative conference schedule strength I saw from the other leagues were:
SEC -- They are loaded, with 7 teams projected Top 25 (Bama, Auburn, Tenn, Texas, Texas A&M, Miss. St. and Kentucky), and another 4 (Florida, Georgia, Arkansas and Ole Miss) projected between #35-#39, so easily Q1 on the road and close to moving from Q2 to Q1 at home. And the bottom 5 teams (S. Carolina, LSU, Mizzou, Vandy and Oklahoma) are all between #54-#67, so would as of now all be Q1 road games. There’s currently zero projected SEC Q3 games, which is nuts. The main variables for the SEC will be whether Florida/Georgia/Arkansas/Miss. move up to Q1 for home games, and whether Mizzou, Vandy, and Oklahoma fall below the #75 cut line to Q1 road games.
Big 10 -- 5 teams projected safely in Q1 as Top 25 (Purdue, Illinois, Mich St., Rutgers, UCLA). Where it gets very interesting is there are another 10 teams (#31 Indiana, #33 Ohio St., #34 Michigan, #41 Wisconsin, #42 Maryland, #43 Oregon, #45 Iowa, #47 Nebraska, #48 Northwestern and #51 USC) projected as safely Q1 on the road, and at least a 3-4 of whom are not far from striking distance to move up from Q2 to Q1 at home. So, lots of potential variance there.
And then, like the ACC, the Big 10 has multiple teams right around the #75 hinge Q1 spot: #70 Minnesota, #71 Washington, and #73 Penn St. Those two leagues have all but 1 of the spots between #68 and #74, so just a few games could have outsized effect on Q1 opportunities.
Big 12 -- very top-heavy, with 5 teams projected Top 14 (Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Zona, Baylor), but 4 above #80 (Utah, West Va., Oklahoma St and Colorado), leading to more Q3 games than usual for the Big 12 – not unexpected with expansion. The key to watch there is if the 4 teams from #20-#30 (Texas Tech, BYU, Cincy, and Kansas St.) remain in the "all Q1" spots. And, then a little bit, what happens to the 4 teams near-ish to the #75 hinge between Q1 road/Q2 home and Q2 road/Q3 home (#57 UCF, #64 Arizona St., #80 Utah, #83 West Va.).
Big East -- also top heavy, with 4 teams projected #12-#25 (U.Conn, Creighton, St. John’s, Marquette), and 3 above #90 (Seton Hall, Georgetown DePaul). Their swing teams for potential “all Q1” purposes are Xavier at #37 and #41 Nova, and the only one close to #75 hinge is #77 Butler.
Looking at how what you noted is Duke's 15 projected Q1 games across the full schedule compares to those of key peer teams, shows that we would have fewer Q1 games than nearly all of them, but close enough that I don't think the difference would carry that much weight:
Duke -- 15 Q1, 5 Q2, 8 Q3, 3 Q4.
Auburn [depending on Maui matchups] -- 18-19 Q1, 6-7 Q2, 0-1 Q3, likely will have 5 Q4.
Alabama -- 18 Q1, 8 Q2, 3 Q3, 2 Q4.
Kansas -- 18 Q1, 4 Q2, 5 Q3, 4 Q4.
Purdue -- 17 Q1, 9 Q2, 1 Q3, 4 Q4.
Kentucky -- 17 Q1, 6 Q2, 2 Q3, 6 Q4.
North Carolina [depending on Maui matchups] -- 15-16 Q1, 7 Q2, 6-7 Q3, 4 Q4.
U.Conn [depending on Maui matchups] -- 13-15 Q1, 7-8 Q2, 4-5 Q3, likely 5 Q4.
With all of the Top 50-ish power conf. schools' non-conference schedules now finalized (other than maybe Oregon and Baylor having 1 more cupcake to announce), I wouldn't make much of a change to the prior assessment of teams with the best non-con schedules: it's still a clear top 3 of Auburn, Alabama and North Carolina, then basically a tie for 4th between U.Conn, Duke, Kansas and Purdue. But, there's some action at the bottom, with two more truly pathetic non-con schedules from Miami and USC. So, I'd adjust the Razzies to a bottom five of:
#5 Texas Tech [details above]
#4 Miami (Torvik projection #26) [only 1 Q1 projected game, although Arkansas likely will become one; 6 Q4 and all worse than #256]
Q1 (1): Tennessee (N-#5)
Q2 (3): Arkansas (#36); [Okla. St. (N-#92) or FAU (N-#94); 1 of VCU (N-#53)/Nevada (#56)/Vandy (#66)/Seton Hall (#90) (MTE)]
Q3 (1): Drake (N-#118) (MTE)
Q4 (6): Charl. So. (#256), Mt. St. Mary’s (#274), Presbyterian (#298), FDU (#333), Binghamton (#331), Coppin St. (#357)
#3 Maryland [details above]
#2 USC (Torvik projection #50) [only 1 projected Q1 game and St. Mary's wouldn't have to fall much for it to be zero, and only 1 projected Q2 game; 6 Q4]
Q1 (1): St. Mary’s (N-#38) (MTE)
Q2 (1): [Ariz St. (N-#64) or N. Mex. (N-#81) (MTE)]
Q3 (3): Cal (#107), UT-Arlington (#112), UT-Chattanooga (#148)
Q4 (6): San Jose St. (#178), Montana St. (#216), Southern U. (#231), Cal. St.-Northridge (#266), Grambling (#292), Idaho St. (#344)
#1 Indiana [details above]
UrinalCake
Member
We're about three weeks away from Countdown. Are we ever going to get a full schedule?
hallcity
Member
And why can't they announce how they'll sell tickets for the Arizona State game?
brevity
Member
That's really more of an ACC problem than a Duke problem. Last year they announced the conference slate on September 26, and Countdown to Craziness was October 20. This year Duke scheduled C2C for October 4, two weeks earlier. I guess that could add some tension at our end, even though I have no idea what the ACC schedule has to do with a Duke-only preseason event.
The regular season still starts in the first week of November, so I figure that the ACC still makes its announcement toward the end of September.
MChambers
Member
Maybe the ACC is waiting to see if any more schools join or leave?
Stray Gator
Moderator
I received the following message from the Duke Athletics Ticket Office this afternoon with a link to purchase tickets for the ASU-Duke game
Tickets for the Duke vs. Arizona State "Brotherhood Run" are now available exclusively for Duke Men's Basketball season ticket holders. This charity exhibition game will be played at Cameorn Indoor Stadium on Sunday, October 27th at 7:00pm and is NOT included in the season ticket package. Proceeds from the event will benefit Duke Children's Hospital.
. . . There is a limit of four tickets, and seats will be assigned based off of availability and Iron Dukes priority. We will notify you if we are able to upgrade your seats. The priority deadline to order tickets is Wednesday, September 18th.
I placed my order for tickets, which Duke is selling for a uniform price of $67.
Thank you so much for this update! I'm hoping that this will be available to the rest of us Iron Dukes as of next Thursday.
hallcity
Member
This is for further out into the future and it might not mean much. Being "open" to something isn't the same thing as favoring it. We'll see. I can't decide whether I favor it or not.
Jon Rothstein
@JonRothstein
·
56m
Jon Scheyer tells me that Duke would be open to starting a series with UConn in the future. The two programs --- who have a combined 11 national titles --- have met head-to-head nine times, but have never played in a campus setting.
Jon Rothstein
@JonRothstein
·
56m
Jon Scheyer tells me that Duke would be open to starting a series with UConn in the future. The two programs --- who have a combined 11 national titles --- have met head-to-head nine times, but have never played in a campus setting.
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