2024-25 NET/Bracketology Thread

JasonEvans said:
Someone is going to have an out-of-body experience against us from the outside. The law of averages says it almost has to happen. Heck, it looked like Louisville was going to do that for the first 10 minutes of so of that game.

If I had to bet, I would trust what KenPom and Bart Torvik's computers say, which is that Duke will go 27-4 on the season (leading into the ACC tourney) with an 18-2 ACC regular season record. I think that if we do that, we will get a #1 seed as I doubt there will be any other power conference teams with fewer than 6 losses.
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I agree with this. 18-2. But those 2 losses will very likely be against the 4 KenPom top 60 ACC teams we play. All the other teams are considerably worse than Louisville.
 
Don't look now, but the top of our tourney resume is looking better and better by the day. Right now, we can claim:
  • A victory over the NET #1 team at home.
  • A victory over the NET #14 team (Arizona, who has been hot of late) on the road.
  • A victory over the NET #20 team (Pitt) at home.
  • Two more Q1 road wins in conference, including one against Louisville that looks better and better as they knock off top-tier ACC competition at home.
Oh, and our non-conference matchup against Illinois at MSG looks like it could be between NET Top 10 teams... Illinois is up to NET #8 at the moment.

Yes, we're going to have to do a lot of "holding serve" the rest of the way with some of our best ACC opportunities now in the rear-view, but right now our 5 Q1 wins are second only to Auburn. Meanwhile, the teams that are generally projected No. 1 seeds alongside us an Auburn—Tennessee and Iowa State—each only have 3 Q1 wins, so there's real questions as to how legitimate they are.

Oh, and we're #2 in the NET ourselves. Things are looking pretty, pretty good as of January 8, 2025 ;)
 
scottdude8 said:
Don't look now, but the top of our tourney resume is looking better and better by the day. Right now, we can claim:
  • A victory over the NET #1 team at home.
  • A victory over the NET #14 team (Arizona, who has been hot of late) on the road.
  • A victory over the NET #20 team (Pitt) at home.
  • Two more Q1 road wins in conference, including one against Louisville that looks better and better as they knock off top-tier ACC competition at home.
Oh, and our non-conference matchup against Illinois at MSG looks like it could be between NET Top 10 teams... Illinois is up to NET #8 at the moment.

Yes, we're going to have to do a lot of "holding serve" the rest of the way with some of our best ACC opportunities now in the rear-view, but right now our 5 Q1 wins are second only to Auburn. Meanwhile, the teams that are generally projected No. 1 seeds alongside us an Auburn—Tennessee and Iowa State—each only have 3 Q1 wins, so there's real questions as to how legitimate they are.

Oh, and we're #2 in the NET ourselves. Things are looking pretty, pretty good as of January 8, 2025 ;)
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Interesting that Houston is up to #4, but getting no love in the polls, due to 3 losses. I think Houston is probably the best team in the B12 and is likely to get a #1 seed.
 
MChambers said:
Interesting that Houston is up to #4, but getting no love in the polls, due to 3 losses. I think Houston is probably the best team in the B12 and is likely to get a #1 seed.
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I kind of agree, but find their 0-3 record against quad 1 puzzling. That will probably change though.

Also, their grind it out hard nosed style really has a knack for overwhelming lesser opponents. Some of their scores are really impressive blowouts. But better teams hang in.
 
scottdude8 said:
Don't look now, but the top of our tourney resume is looking better and better by the day. Right now, we can claim:
  • A victory over the NET #1 team at home.
  • A victory over the NET #14 team (Arizona, who has been hot of late) on the road.
  • A victory over the NET #20 team (Pitt) at home.
  • Two more Q1 road wins in conference, including one against Louisville that looks better and better as they knock off top-tier ACC competition at home.
Oh, and our non-conference matchup against Illinois at MSG looks like it could be between NET Top 10 teams... Illinois is up to NET #8 at the moment.

Yes, we're going to have to do a lot of "holding serve" the rest of the way with some of our best ACC opportunities now in the rear-view, but right now our 5 Q1 wins are second only to Auburn. Meanwhile, the teams that are generally projected No. 1 seeds alongside us an Auburn—Tennessee and Iowa State—each only have 3 Q1 wins, so there's real questions as to how legitimate they are.

Oh, and we're #2 in the NET ourselves. Things are looking pretty, pretty good as of January 8, 2025 ;)
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But see, if we move to #1 in the NET, we will lose our victory over the #1 NET.

Or something.
 
MChambers said:
Interesting that Houston is up to #4, but getting no love in the polls, due to 3 losses. I think Houston is probably the best team in the B12 and is likely to get a #1 seed.
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As the resident Houston grad, I’m not as bullish on the Cougars. The defense is great but fouls a bit too much and allows too many offensive rebounds(of course the offense gets more). But the real issue is the offense. Arceneaux is healthy and has been a boost but I dare you to watch a Houston game for more than 5 minutes if you like offense at all. Duke’s worst possession is a regular occurrence for Houston and consistently looks so much better. Houston lost to Auburn because the offense stopped scoring in the second half and blew a solid lead. Iowa State is better because that team can score and plays solid defense. I put Houston there next battling Kansas but vulnerable to more upsets in conference.
 
AGDukesky said:
As the resident Houston grad, I’m not as bullish on the Cougars. The defense is great but fouls a bit too much and allows too many offensive rebounds(of course the offense gets more). But the real issue is the offense. Arceneaux is healthy and has been a boost but I dare you to watch a Houston game for more than 5 minutes if you like offense at all. Duke’s worst possession is a regular occurrence for Houston and consistently looks so much better. Houston lost to Auburn because the offense stopped scoring in the second half and blew a solid lead. Iowa State is better because that team can score and plays solid defense. I put Houston there next battling Kansas but vulnerable to more upsets in conference.
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I've not studied this Houston team too closely, but it does seem like from the eye-test in their games against Auburn and in the Vegas tournament that the Cougars are suffering from a drop off in play-making from Sasser/Shedd over the prior years to Uzan/Cryer this year.

Discussion of Houston's greatness over the past 5 years has focused almost entirely on its defense, but its offense has been impressively efficient too over the years (Ken Pom's #19 offense last year, #11 in 2022-23, #10 in 2021-22 and #7 in 2020-21 -- though it's hard to tease out how much of that is due to getting easy baskets off of its defense vs. true half-court offensive efficiency), and at least by the numbers there isn't a substantial drop off this year, as Houston's offense is still rated as #16.
 
Yeah, Houston does 3 things offensively really well: shoot 3s (#3 overall), offensive rebound (#21), and avoid turnovers (#39). They may or may not always look pretty, but they manage to put up pretty decent scoring efficiency numbers pretty consistently. And with that defense, they are always in the game.
 
Here in mid-Jan, ACC’s best bets for NCAAT look to be Duke, UNC, UofL, and Clemson. Tussle for bubble and #5 between struggling Pitt, rising long-shot Wake, and sneaky-maybe SMU.

Pitt — 3-game losing streak, with big home game this Sat v. Clemson. Next few weeks, they get UNC twice plus away games at Wake and SMU.

Wake — 4-game win streak against weaker ACC teams, and should make it 5 at VT on Sat. After that, big opportunities with home games v. UNC, Duke, and Pitt, plus away to UofL.

SMU — Saved their slim NCAAT hopes last night with Boopie’s last-second 3 in Hooville. They get all of UofL, Wake, Pitt, and Clemson at home during the rest of the season.
 
duke2x said:
I know it's only LOLunardi routinely making this prediction, but is anyone else annoyed by the thought of UNC getting a #10 seed in Raleigh with #1 Duke?
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I just cannot take anything he says seriously at this point. Odds are, it isn't even him putting it together this early in the season.
 
Carolina is not getting what would functionally be a home game as a 10-seed. The #7 and the #2 seed in their bracket would quite justifiably throw an absolute fit.

Aside from the top 16 seeds where there are rules for where you send them, Lunardi is just totally guessing as where everyone else goes. His primary value (ha!!) is in assigning seeds, not assigning locations.
 
South Carolina (2017) respectfully disagrees. The Committee only gives lip service to this principle. Pitt got the same treatment playing Wisconsin in Wisconsin as a 3 seed as well. Here's hoping they move to the NIT or down to an 11 seed (or at worst up to 8-9 where TV would be excited for a ISU-UNC game on Saturday night.)
 
JasonEvans said:
Carolina is not getting what would functionally be a home game as a 10-seed. The #7 and the #2 seed in their bracket would quite justifiably throw an absolute fit.

Aside from the top 16 seeds where there are rules for where you send them, Lunardi is just totally guessing as where everyone else goes. His primary value (ha!!) is in assigning seeds, not assigning locations.
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I have yet to do my yearly review of the “seeding principles”, but I’m fairly certain one of them is that a Top 4 seed can NOT be put at a locational disadvantage. I think this came into play a couple years after we had to play South Carolina in a de facto road contest as a No. 2 seed :( Regardless, I’m with Jason not being the least bit concerned that will actually come to pass.
 
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