Duke WBB plays at NC State on Monday 2/3 at 7pm ET on ESPN2 (
streaming link,
listen,
live stats)
After wins at SMU and #20 Georgia Tech, the #10 Blue Devils play their third straight road game on Monday evening, driving to Raleigh to face the #17 NC State Wolfpack. The venue is the 5,500-seat
Reynolds Coliseum, which is sold out for the annual
Play4Kay game:
"Former NC State head coach Kay Yow began the tradition in 2006, when one of the Wolfpack's home games was dedicated towards raising awareness and money for the fight against women's cancers. Donations made towards this cause go directly to the Kay Yow Cancer Fund."
NCSU head coach Wes Moore, now in his 12th season on the job, defied chalk tendencies last spring by getting to the Final Four as a 3 seed, defeating 2-seed Stanford and 1-seed Texas in a pair of 10-point victories. This year's squad was ranked #9 in the preseason AP poll, which Coach Moore
said was too high:
"I think everyone looks at our guards, especially [senior guards Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers] and think, 'Oh, wow, NC State is going to be really, really good,'" Moore said. "But we lost two really good players in River Baldwin and Mimi Collins, who are both playing overseas in Europe now professionally. Those are going to be big shoes to fill."
Baldwin and Collins brought size to last year's team, and their most likely frontcourt replacement, Boston University transfer Caitlin Weimar, had hip surgery and elected to
leave the team in order to recover at home. (We can draw some parallels here with Duke, who lost Kennedy Brown and Camilla Emsbo to graduation, and then lost their most likely frontcourt replacement, freshman Arianna Roberson, to an injury that ended her season before it started.)
Unlike Duke, Coach Moore has a number of tall but previously unproven options still on his
roster. Mallory Collier and Tilda Trygger have each occupied the post for most of this season's starts. According to
Pack Pride, reserve center Lizzy Williamson had surgery for some undisclosed injury, and her recovery timetable is unknown.
PROBABLE STARTERS
5-10 senior guard
Aziaha James #10 (16.9 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.8 ast, 1.2 stl)
5-10 sophomore guard
Zoe Brooks #35 (13.3 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.1 ast, 1.4 stl)
6-1 senior guard
Saniya Rivers #22 (12.1 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk)
6-0 grad guard
Madison Hayes #21 (10.1 pts, 6.8 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-6 freshman forward
Tilda Trygger #18 (5.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 0.4 ast)
TOP RESERVES
5-7 freshman guard
Zamareya Jones #3 (8.8 pts, 2.1 reb, 1.9 ast)
6-3 sophomore center
Mallory Collier #42 (4.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 0.2 ast)
5-11 freshman guard
Devyn Quigley #0 (3.0 pts, 1.7 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-5 freshman center
Lorena Awou #1 (2.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 0.1 ast)
5-11 sophomore guard
Laci Steele #24 (1.8 pts, 0.9 reb, 0.2 ast)
6-2 sophomore forward
Maddie Cox #11 (0.8 pts, 1.8 reb, 0.3 ast)
INJURED/OTHER
6-5 grad center
Lizzy Williamson #15 (1.6 pts, 2.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
-- surgery, return unknown
Despite lacking experience in the frontcourt, the Pack have done well this season, with a 17-4 overall record. Their only non-conference losses are to top 10 teams: #2 South Carolina and #7 LSU on neutral courts, and a then-unranked (but now #9) TCU on the road. Let's hope, for Duke's sake, that trend continues. They are 9-1 in the ACC, losing only to #19 California during their West Coast trip. NCSU does have an impressive 30-point win at Louisville from mid-December, but other than that, they have yet to play many of the league's strongest teams. Their most recent win was at Wake Forest, who are in last place, but have been playing teams close on their home floor (90-83:
recap,
box score,
highlights,
full replay).
Duke and NC State have similar shooting percentages and score about the same number of points, but the Wolfpack are fairly elite in avoiding errors, ranking 12th nationally in committing the fewest turnovers and 2nd in committing the fewest personal fouls. For more information, check out the tables below, incorporating stats from
Sports Reference.
Bart Torvik sees Duke taking this one, 69-63.
Category | NC State (17-4, 9-1 ACC) | Duke (17-4, 8-1 ACC) |
Points Scored | 76.0 (44th nationally) | 75.8 (47th) |
Points Allowed | 63.3 (155th) | 58.1 (53rd) |
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com) | +12.7 (52nd) | +17.7 (33rd) |
Bench Points (NCAA.com) | 18.7 (166th) | 32.2 (5th) |
Total Rebounds | 41.2 (23rd) | 40.4 (42nd) |
--- Offensive Rebounds | 12.1 (143rd) | 15.3 (21st) |
--- Defensive Rebounds | 29.1 (14th) | 25.3 (158th) |
Assists | 13.7 (161st) | 17.4 (28th) |
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com) | 1.129 (47th) | 1.134 (45th) |
Steals | 6.9 (279th) | 11.1 (29th) |
Blocks | 4.1 (55th) | 4.5 (30th) |
Turnovers | 12.1 (12th fewest) | 15.3 (119th fewest) |
Personal Fouls | 12.1 (2nd fewest) | 16.8 (185th fewest) |
Field Goal Percentage | 44.7% (62nd) | 45.3% (47th) |
2-Point FG Percentage | 49.8% (75th) | 49.0% (96th) |
3-Point FG Percentage | 33.9% (77th) | 35.3% (38th) |
Free Throw Percentage | 66.5% (295th) | 66.9% (288th) |
NET Ranking (NCAA.com) | #23 (NET Summary) | #8 (NET Summary) |
--- Strength of Schedule | 31st | 3rd |
--- Quad 1 record | 3-4 | 4-3 |
--- Quad 2 record | 2-0 | 6-1 |
--- Quad 3 record | 5-0 | 3-0 |
--- Quad 4 record | 7-0 | 4-0 |
T-Rank (Bart Torvik) | #27 (T-Page) | #8 (T-Page) |
In October, the NCAA published a
PDF file of frequently asked questions for the NET in women's basketball. Quadrants are defined on page 4:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-25, Neutral 1-35, Away 1-45
Quadrant 2: Home 26-55, Neutral 36-65, Away 46-80
Quadrant 3: Home 56-90, Neutral 66-105, Away 81-130
Quadrant 4: Home 91-362, Neutral 106-362, Away 131-362