2024-25 DWBB Season

From brevity's pre-game report:

"A number of ACC teams have balanced scoring at the top of their rosters, but Cal is currently the only team in the league to have all five of its starters averaging double-digit points."

And nobody on their team did it tonight.
It goes without saying (then why do people proceed to state the obvious?🙂), that Duke's defense was awfully impressive tonight. Toby's already a lot of fun to watch and I can only imagine how much improvement she'll make as she matures as a player.

Big congrats to the team on a dominating performance.
 
Duke 72, California 38 (recap, box score, highlights, condensed game, full replay, presser)

Duke freshman Toby Fournier recorded her first career double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds to lead the No. 16 Blue Devils past 18th-ranked California, 72-38, in ACC women's basketball action Thursday evening inside Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Ashlon Jackson and Reigan Richardson rounded out Duke's trio of double-digit scorers with 16 points and 14 points, respectively.

Playing stifling defense all night, Duke scored 32 points off 31 California turnovers. Jadyn Donovan and Taina Mair anchored the defensive effort with four steals apiece. Mair also dished five assists in the triumph.


The above highlights link is from the ACC Digital Network. Duke WBB posted their own version...


...plus Toby Fournier highlights...


...and Coach Lawson's press conference, quoted here.


"It was a great all-around performance for us on both ends of the floor. Our defense was really disruptive — forcing 31 turnovers. That’s an excellent offensive team, we knew that coming in. From the start our intensity and competitiveness was at a high level."
 
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I'm not sure we've ever had a player like Toby, with the size, quickness, hands, and body control. So fun to watch, and she's only a frosh. Alana is obviously the standard, but she was only 5-11.
Toby doesn't back down to anyone, either. I was waiting for her get teed up yesterday as she had a few moments with her defender.
 
Stats v. Cal

Here are the numbers from last night's game against the University of California, Berkeley Golden Bears at Cameron Indoor:

OFFENSE
Possessions: 68.5 (fairly slow)
oRtg: 1.051 (solid; adj. 1.154, 13th)
eFG%: 48.4% (fairly weak)
3pt%: 28.6% (bad)
2pt%: 51.2% (strong)
%three: 33.9% (normal, high for us, but see below)
FT rate: 27.4% (good)
OR%: 47.2% (very good)
TO%: 20.4% (acceptable, lowest since Dec. 8th)
a/to: 1.286 (very good)
%assisted: 66.7% (good)
fast break pts: 11 (15.3%) (decent overall, a little low for us)

DEFENSE
dRtg: 0.555 (fabulous; 0.392 adj., best of the season, would be #1 by a whole lot - roughly 45% tougher)
deFG%: 37.8% (excellent)
3pt%: 16.7% (excellent, against a team that's really good from out there)
2pt%: 42.4% (good overall, about average for us)
%threes: 26.7% (good, especially against a team that likes to shoot threes)
FT rate: 17.8% (excellent, but more on this later)
DR%: 71.0% (OK)
TO%: 45.3% (outstanding, best of the season)
a/to: 0.323 (excellent)
%assisted: 62.5% (surprisingly high)
stl%: 21.9% (excellent)
blk%: 6.1% (bad)
fast break pts: 5 (13.2%) (very good, our defense was so good, the percentage is a bit misleading)


This was our best defensive performance of the year, bar none. Cal is a pretty good offensive team - about 30th in terms of points per game, and about 30th per Torvik's ranking, about 40th per the Her Hoops Stats ranking. Even after last night, they score almost 73 points per game. We held them to 38. They really like to shoot threes. We didn't let them shoot them, and we contested most of the looks they had so they didn't hit them. They normally get 38% of their points from beyond the arc; last night it was just 16%. We forced 31 turnovers and outright stole the ball from them more than one in every five possessions. They turned the ball over nearly half the time they had it. We were a fantastic defensive team last night.

We weren't bad offensively, either, though perhaps not quite so otherworldly. We emphasize getting shots close in, and last night was no exception. Except last night we didn't roll a huge number of them off the rim, the way we did against the last two teams we faced. But last night, we also seemed ready to take more threes. In fact, that seems to be a long term trend. In our first 11 games (up to finals break), we had exactly one game in which at least 30% of our shots came from outside. In the eight games since, we've done that six times. We still have a very low percentage relative to the rest of the league, but it seems to be an area of conscious improvement.

And one last note: I've criticized the officiating on a number of occasions, so it is only fair to point out that I think we were the beneficiaries of some uneven officiating yesterday. (Not biased officiating, to be clear; just uneven.) We were the more aggressive team, so you expect more fouls calls in your favor. But we got 40% more, and seemed to get a bit fortunate on occasion. They had a starter foul out and another assessed with four, while we had only one player get even three. It also seemed that we were helped by some ticky-tack officiating in the turnover department. There were a few phantom deflections and some very picky travel calls that went against them, for example. I don't think Cal is used to the East Coast style of officiating. Granted, it wasn't 34 points worth, but it seems worth noting.
 
Toby doesn't back down to anyone, either. I was waiting for her get teed up yesterday as she had a few moments with her defender.
Yeah, I was concerned she was going to get tossed for that one incident after she was fouled and went to the floor, but they didn't even review it. The ref admonished Toby before she took her free throws, but no further action was taken. Toby can be a bit hot-headed, but to her credit, she recognizes it pretty quickly, and turns it back off quickly, too. Hopefully she can learn to contain herself before the outburst happens moving forward. She's ridden that line a couple times this season.
 
Cal has a lot of wide bodies but not in a good way. Duke seems to have the athleticism advantage.
I noticed that in person as well. Cal had some big, physical players including one of their guards who looked like a center. I was surprised we didn't front the post more, but even when Cal got the ball inside they didn't really take advantage of their size and score. On the other end Fournier is so much fun to watch. Old school post moves that remind me of Okafor, perhaps in part because it is such a lost art. Also I was surprised our three point numbers were so low, they "felt" higher.
 
Y'know, not to take anything away from our performance, but I wonder if jet lag had anything to do with Cal's performance. They're a good team. I've been wondering for a while if this new conference s*** started by the B1G would be a big problem for the west coast teams. Cal beat NCState at home and lost at Clemson. Cal is much better than Stanford this year and I'm glad we got them at the beginning of their road trip and not Sunday.

While I'm wondering, I've also been thinking that this will start to affect their recruiting and retention of student-athletes. At least the ones who care about class and the college experience. Or those that just don't want to spend half their semester on a plane.
 
Y'know, not to take anything away from our performance, but I wonder if jet lag had anything to do with Cal's performance. They're a good team. I've been wondering for a while if this new conference s*** started by the B1G would be a big problem for the west coast teams. Cal beat NCState at home and lost at Clemson. Cal is much better than Stanford this year and I'm glad we got them at the beginning of their road trip and not Sunday.

While I'm wondering, I've also been thinking that this will start to affect their recruiting and retention of student-athletes. At least the ones who care about class and the college experience. Or those that just don't want to spend half their semester on a plane.

I think that, between smart non-conference scheduling by the Cal and Stanford programs and a pretty good job by the ACC, their travel has been entirely fair.

Last year, before she retired, Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer was asked about increased cross-country travel demands in the ACC. She said that her team had been more national with their non-conference schedule and more western with the PAC-12, but they would swap that in the future, staying more local for the non-conference portion and then more national in the ACC. Aside from a trip to play Indiana (a home-and-home series obligation), Stanford has done just that.

Other than a road game in Spokane to play Gonzaga, Cal did not leave the state until they played Clemson and SMU.

The ACC emulated the PAC-12 with a Thursday-Sunday pair of road games where Cal and Stanford take turns playing the same two opponents. This week it’s Cal-Duke and Stanford-Wake, then Cal-Wake and Stanford-Duke. They make four of these trips, every alternate week:

Clemson & SMU
Duke & Wake Forest
Louisville & Notre Dame
Virginia and Virginia Tech
 
I think that, between smart non-conference scheduling by the Cal and Stanford programs and a pretty good job by the ACC, their travel has been entirely fair.
Who said anything was unfair? It is what it is. They chose to join an "Atlantic Coast" conference.
 
Dawn Staley just got a raise to $4M per. What are they going to do when Kara starts beating her regularly? 😁 And what is Duke going to do?

 
Toby doesn't back down to anyone, either. I was waiting for her get teed up yesterday as she had a few moments with her defender.
Note that it was Jordan who got T’d up, a double with their “point center” number 7. They were battling and 7 pushed Jordan down. Jordan got up and then in her face. Ultimately both shoved the other after a Duke free throw, and got the Ts.

Just like Delaney last year with Utsby, I loved the no-back-down attitude of both Jordan and Toby. Keep the fire hot!
 
Dawn Staley just got a raise to $4M per. What are they going to do when Kara starts beating her regularly? 😁 And what is Duke going to do?


Hopefully this time around Nina King is a smarter AD then the one we had when Coach G's contract came up and let her walk away. I really hope and expect Nina to pony up the donors with the money to keep Kara. Kara is doing a great job for us and so much better then our last coach Joanne McCallie.
 
With the exception of SC and USF (and the 2 games recovering from the hack job), Toby has been scoring about a point per minute.


Clearly Kara needs to be playing her 35-40 minutes per game. ;)
 
Clearly Kara needs to be playing her 35-40 minutes per game. ;)
I'm starting to think that Kara's conservative 1-foul-per-period policy serves two purposes: 1) it ensures that they play good D, but cleanly, and 2) its a bulit-in strategy for rotation of the lineup. If the team was not deep she would be forced to play some with foul trouble. As of now, there are 9 players receiving 13 or more minutes per game, none higher than 28. Toby has 18, but that will probably increase.
 
Duke WBB hosts Stanford on Sunday 1/19 at 1pm ET on ESPN2 (streaming link, listen, live stats)

After putting on a defensive clinic that stymied #18 California's high-scoring starters, the #16 Blue Devils will play host this weekend to the other team in the ACC's new West Coast outpost. The Stanford Cardinal arrive in Cameron for a Sunday afternoon game, airing live on ESPN2. The Duke WBB program is also promoting National Girls & Women in Sports Day: "Celebrate the achievements of women in sports with Duke Athletics, and join a special dance clinic for elementary and middle school students. Registration details coming soon!" Defensive clinic, dance clinic... what can't this team do?

Duke and Stanford are new conference buddies now, but according to GoDuke's team history page, they've played 6 times before, between 1988-2023. Longtime Cardinal coach Tara VanDerveer was on the sidelines each time, and her teams have led the series 4-2. She retired at the end of last season, much like the Pac-12.

Former associate head coach Kate Paye was soon promoted, and she got a headstart on this season by taking the team on a trip to Italy in late August, getting in the ten NCAA-authorized early practices and playing three exhibition games against second- and third-tier Italian pro teams. As always, I recapped their experience and posted it here. Some talking points, in case you don't feel like clicking over:
  • Coach Paye was born in Stanford Hospital, and stuck around for an undergraduate degree, a JD/MBA degree, and most of her coaching tenure. (I'll add now that her parents and siblings also attended Stanford.)
  • The Cardinal team that hosted and beat Duke in overtime last season looks less familiar now: aside from Coach VanDerveer retiring, their three leading scorers are gone, but the other two starters have returned, along with 7 reserves.
  • New additions include three top 100 freshmen, and two transfers from Purdue and Santa Clara who combined for about 30 points per game last season.
The Cardinal are 10-7 overall (2-4 in the ACC). They are 9-1 on their home floor in Maples Pavilion and 1-6 anywhere else. According to their team website, "In home games, Stanford is scoring 83.3 points per game on 49.5 percent shooting, including 42.2 [percent] from deep. In its seven road and neutral games away from Maples, the Cardinal is averaging 67.7 points on 40.5 percent shooting and 33.8 percent on 3-pointers." That one win away from home was in their most recent game against Wake Forest (74-71: recap, box score, highlights, full replay).


One of their two returning starters, Talana Lepolo, went out with a knee injury 5 games into the season, and I didn't come across any timetable for a return. With that kind of vagueness, Stanford should fit just fine in the ACC. Mary Ashley Stevenson (from Purdue) and Tess Heal (from Santa Clara) are the program's first incoming undergrad transfers since Duke's Brooke Smith in 2003. Here's a roster breakdown.

PROBABLE STARTERS

6-2 sophomore forward Nunu Agara #3 (17.6 pts, 8.1 reb, 2.2 ast)
6-2 senior guard Elena Bosgana #20 (13.5 pts, 7.2 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.8 stl)
6-3 senior forward Brooke Demetre #21 (11.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 blk)
5-9 sophomore guard Chloe Clardy #13 (7.6 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.1 stl)
5-6 freshman guard Shay Ijiwoye #6 (2.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.0 ast)

TOP RESERVES

5-10 junior guard Tess Heal #34 (8.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.4 ast)
5-10 redshirt junior guard Jzaniya Harriel #32 (7.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
6-1 sophomore forward Courtney Ogden #40 (3.5 pts, 1.9 reb, 0.7 ast)
6-2 sophomore forward Mary Ashley Stevenson #22 (3.3 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.9 ast)

BENCH PLAYERS

6-4 freshman center Kennedy Umeh #45 (2.8 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.2 ast)
6-3 freshman forward Harper Peterson #15 (0.8 pts, 0.6 reb, 0.5 ast)
5-11 junior guard Stavi Papadaki #24 (0.4 pts, 0.2 reb, 0.2 ast)
5-8 junior guard Lauren Green #31 (0.3 pts, 0.3 reb, 0.0 ast)

INJURED/OTHER

5-7 junior guard Talana Lepolo #10 (2.6 pts, 1.0 reb, 1.6 ast) -- knee injury, timetable for return unknown

As a team, Stanford presents a different kind of 3-point challenge than California. Where the Golden Bears are among the nation's leaders in attempted and made threes, the Cardinal hit 39.1 percent of their outside shots, 4th best in Division I. By volume, the two biggest individual threats on the team are starters Brooke Demetre (34-of-77, or 44.2 percent) and Elena Bosgana (31-of-90, or 34.4 percent), but if you consider accuracy, then also worry about Tess Heal (21-of-37, or 56.8 percent) and Jzaniya Harriel (22-of-50, or 44 percent). Leading scorer Nunu Agara and Chloe Clardy are dangerous as well; each hit about 36 percent from beyond the arc.

For more team stats, consult the comparison table below, which relies on Sports Reference and other identified sources. Bart Torvik sees this game ending with a 78-63 Duke victory.

CategoryStanford (10-7, 2-4 ACC)Duke (14-4, 5-1 ACC)
Points Scored76.9 (41st nationally)76.8 (43rd)
Points Allowed66.8 (246th)59.8 (82nd)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)10.1 (76th)17.0 (37th)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)20.6 (132nd)32.9 (8th)
Total Rebounds40.5 (52nd)40.6 (49th)
--- Offensive Rebounds11.3 (204th)15.4 (19th)
--- Defensive Rebounds29.2 (17th)25.2 (170th)
Assists14.4 (123rd)17.4 (28th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)1.04 (65th)1.07 (58th)
Steals6.9 (289th)11.6 (29th)
Blocks3.6 (93rd)4.2 (56th)
Turnovers13.8 (46th fewest)16.2 (163rd fewest)
Personal Fouls15.2 (77th fewest)17.2 (206th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage45.8% (41st)45.7% (45th)
2-Point FG Percentage49.7% (82nd)49.6% (83rd)
3-Point FG Percentage39.1% (4th)35.2% (40th)
Free Throw Percentage71.3% (162nd)65.1% (313th)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#42#9
--- Strength of Schedule22nd4th
--- Quad 1 record0-53-3
--- Quad 2 record1-13-1
--- Quad 3 record2-14-0
--- Quad 4 record7-04-0
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#43 (T-Page)#10 (T-Page)

In October, the NCAA published a PDF file of frequently asked questions for the NET in women's basketball. Quadrants are defined on page 4:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-25, Neutral 1-35, Away 1-45
Quadrant 2: Home 26-55, Neutral 36-65, Away 46-80
Quadrant 3: Home 56-90, Neutral 66-105, Away 81-130
Quadrant 4: Home 91-362, Neutral 106-362, Away 131-362
 
Note that it was Jordan who got T’d up, a double with their “point center” number 7. They were battling and 7 pushed Jordan down. Jordan got up and then in her face. Ultimately both shoved the other after a Duke free throw, and got the Ts.
Just a slight correction: Those weren't double technical fouls, but just double common fouls. The two players were pushing and holding each other down on the block, but not swinging at each other or yelling. Of course, if the ref hadn't called the double foul, it might well have gotten to technicals, but both players did pretty well at not making it personal up until then. I thought that call was one of the better officiating moves on the night. The call calmed the situation down immediately, and kept the situation from over-escalating. There ultimately were no technical fouls called in the game.

Your point about Toby and Woody not backing down is still quite valid, though. They both are quite feisty, and especially in Woody's case, it can be pretty surprising to opponents, who see how thin she is and assume they can just take advantage. The next moment she's blocking their shot and sprinting up court with the ball.
 
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