2024-25 DWBB Season

I tuned in for about a minute of this game, and saw what appeared to be the same tentative, unfocused Duke team that we watched during the first half in Tampa. Couldn't bear to watch any more. Very disappointing.
I commented after the Tampa game that Duke had to be the team that played the hardest. Unfocused is a good word. I thought the energy was there at the opening tip tonight, but frenetic and often without purpose .
 
Stats @ 9F

Here are the numbers from today's game against That Team at Carmichael Arena in Chapel Hell:

OFFENSE
Possessions: 78.5 (equivalent to 69.8 in a regular length game, which is slow, but not as slow as it felt)
oRtg: 0.586 (horrific; adj. 0.799, 338th of 362, worst of the year by, I dunno, light years?)
eFG%: 26.5% (horrific, roughly 40% worse than our prior worst)
3pt%: 23.5% (terrible, but "only" tied for 2nd worst of the year)
2pt%: 23.5% (horrific, and 45% worse than our prior worst)
%three: 25.0% (very low overall, but not much below our norm)
FT rate: 26.5% (bad)
OR%: 34.0% (overall on the low side, but very bad for us)
TO%: 26.8% (bad, 3rd worst of the year)
a/to: 0.238 (horrific, 3x worse than our prior worst)
%assisted: 31.3% (awful)
fast break pts: 7 (15.2%) (bad)

DEFENSE
dRtg: 0.676 (amazing; 0.533 adj., 2nd best to last game)
deFG%: 34.0% (really great, would feel better if our offense weren't even lower than that)
3pt%: 25.0% (very good)
2pt%: 33.3% (excellent, but again, would feel better if our offense weren't even lower)
%threes: 15.1% (very low, which is generally a good thing)
FT rate: 47.2% (horrific, worst of the season, but see below)
DR%: 67.6% (fairly bad)
TO%: 33.1% (good to excellent, especially given the opposition)
a/to: 0.346 (excellent)
%assisted: 52.9% (fine, but surprisingly high)
stl%: 20.4% (excellent)
blk%: 8.9% (not so hot)
fast break pts: 2 (3.8%) (obviously, excellent)


Obviously, a lot of good defense was played in this game. But not everything was good defense. I felt that we were unnecessarily rushing things on offense the entire first half. When we finally worked it to the point of getting a wide open look, we rushed the shot to the point that it wasn't close. For the second game in our last four, we had just six made field goals in an entire half of basketball. It's really tough to win doing that, especially when you turn the ball over 50% more often than you put a field goal through the hoop. Amazingly, we actually generated more shot attempts than they did, by a lot, 68-53, but our shooting percentages were just that bad. Much of that was shot selection. Toby took 8 shots, and I can only think of two that were reasonably open (and obviously, she missed those, too). Oluchi was 1-5, and Reigan was a woeful 2-16, and both of them shoved a lot their attempts straight into the hands of Carolina's best shot blockers. Although Carolina was only officially credited with 7 total blocks, I felt they heavily contested almost everything in the paint.

We also did a lot of dribbling in this game, and on a number of occasions we were dribbling up top while nobody moved. It was odd and uncharacteristic of this team, which is generally very active in off-ball actions. Today, we were not. When we did dribble drive, we either forced the action into the teeth of the defense, or tried a weak pass which more often than not became a turnover, but on occasion just turned into a forced shot from a different player. We were not playing heads up, trying to find someone who was truly open. Instead we just set radar lock and turned up the speed dial. It didn't work. It didn't even draw all that many foul calls, leading to only 16 FTAs in 4 quarters. The Carolina defense was seldom caught off balance, mostly due to a lack of crisp passing. Five assists in the entire game is probably the most damning stat of all of them, and one of those assists came in the OT.

The good news is that we played really well on the defensive end - definitely well enough on that end to win a normal game. We allowed just 53 points in 45 minutes, but even a lot of that was overtime desperation. When you allow 40 points in 40 minutes, that really should be good enough to win you the game. Even the free throws, which I characterized as horrific, weren't truly as bad as they looked. Through 4 quarters - normal game length - we only allowed 11 FTAs, which is actually 5 fewer than we drew ourselves. More than half of Carolina's FTAs (14 of them) came in the OT. It wasn't all sweetness and light, even on defense, though, as we were quite poor at defensive rebounding, and we could have blocked a few more shots. But really, the rebounding was only kinda bad, and again, if you can't win when you allow just 40 in 40, it's not the defense that's to blame.

I hope we take this to heart, because unlike two years ago, I don't want to see a second game against them where we can't get out of the 40s. I like good defense, but not enough to watch that.
 
UNC 53, Duke 46 OT (recap, box score, highlights, condensed game, full replay, presser)

Fourteenth-ranked Duke rallied from a 16-point deficit in the third quarter to force overtime but couldn't complete the comeback in a 53-46 loss at No. 19 North Carolina in ACC women's basketball action Thursday evening inside Carmichael Arena.

Ashlon Jackson led all Duke scorers with 10 points, while Jadyn Donovan and Delaney [Thomas] had solid outings with seven points apiece and 11 and 10 rebounds, respectively. All 10 Blue Devils who saw the court scored at least two points.

Reigan Richardson finished with five points and provided the crucial three-pointer to tie the game, 38-38, late in the fourth quarter.


"Jeopardy!" time. Clue: The ACC Digital Network provided these after the game. Response: "What are three videos I'll never watch?"


Tar Heel Tribune has both postgame press conferences. First up is Kara Lawson, quoted here:


Coach Lawson: "Tough game all the way around for us. Was just a grind it out game. Proud of my team — we got down 16 in that third quarter. They battled back. Had a shot to win it at the end of regulation. Didn’t have enough in overtime. Gotta learn quick. On the road Sunday."

Next we have the UNC side: head coach Courtney Banghart and players Indya Nivar and Blanca Thomas:


Coach Banghart: "It was an ugly game. About as ugly as this light blue background behind us."
 
Got around to watching the game late last night. Some thoughts based on observations and the basic box score:

  • An ugly slugfest of a game. Felt super frenetic and out of control on both sides. 47 total turnovers?! Yikes
  • Part of the ugly was how the refs called the game. They favored the offensive on the perimeter, calling things tight. But then under the basket, it felt like they didn't call a thing. Players were getting mauled, and it was "play on."
  • Despite how the refs were calling the game, Duke repeatedly dribbled under the basket (often into double teams) and took contested shots. At least half of those instances felt like they SHOULD have been fouls, but after seeing the calls weren't coming, you have to make adjustments.
  • Donovan felt like the she was the epitome of everything great about how duke played (her defense WOW!, O-boards) and everything bad (misses at the rim, poor shot selection, low efficiency, atrocious free throw shooting)
  • Richardson is a quandary to me. She's a WNBA level 3&D type player, sweet mid-range game - All the tools to lead this team far. But she just has a tendency to disappear in games. We need her to even things out - find her consistency.
  • This was a real "welcome to the rivalry" game for Toby. Tough game for her to be coming back from injury. She just was off.
  • UNC's experience felt like it showed up in OT. That was the difference in the game. It makes a difference having a starting lineup with Jrs, Srs, GSs.
  • All this said, I suspect we win by 12 at Cameron.
 
I commented after the Tampa game that Duke had to be the team that played the hardest. Unfocused is a good word. I thought the energy was there at the opening tip tonight, but frenetic and often without purpose .
I felt like we didn't have much of an offensive plan or flow. The first quarter was insanely sloppy (for both sides). This team has good D. I also thought the guards were often out of control driving into 3 people with no one around them to pass to.
 
Duke WBB plays at Virginia on Sunday 1/12 at 12pm ET on ACCN (streaming link, listen, live stats)

After some cold shooting in Chapel Hill, the #14 Blue Devils face a literal cold spell this weekend as they travel to Charlottesville to play against the Virginia Cavaliers. The game takes place at noon on Sunday, and will be televised on the ACC Network. The venue is the 14,500-seat John Paul Jones Arena, which is named after neither the Led Zeppelin bassist nor the Continental Navy officer who may or may not have said "I have not yet begun to fight!" (This John Paul Jones is the father of an alumnus and benefactor who donated money to build the arena.)

Head coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton is in her third season at UVA, and her team is 10-6 (2-2 ACC) thus far, with losses to top 10 teams Notre Dame and Oklahoma by more than 40 points. The Cavs' best wins have come in their two most recent games: a 23-point home win against Wake Forest and a 7-point road win at Clemson (67-60: recap, box score, highlights, full replay).


Back in September, on the second page of this thread, I made a list of every frontcourt player in the ACC taller than 6-2, and it looked like Virginia had the most size. Bart Torvik has a Team Charts 2025 page that supports this theory at a national level. Unfortunately, he doesn't list the numbers in a table, but he does allow you to create a graph using a number of variables, which include Average Height (for the whole team) and Effective Height (at the 4 and 5 positions).

Set the team as "All", the x-axis as "Effective Height", and the y-axis as "Average Height", and you'll find the following graph of 362 plotted plots, one for each Division I team, and Virginia is near the top right:

uvaheight.jpg

I can tell they are 3rd nationally in Effective Height -- behind Kentucky and UCLA -- and about 15th in Average Height. The Cavaliers are also standing tall financially, thanks to a different alumnus and benefactor -- Alexis Ohanian, Reddit co-founder and husband of Serena Williams. He recently gave a multi-year "transformational gift" to the women's basketball team. Here he is with Coach Hamilton after the season opener:

uvaohanian.jpg
(source)

Wait a minute. So when people say that a player is "chasing a bag" of NIL money, is this the bag they're talking about?

Here's a player breakdown of the Cavaliers roster. Only 11 of the 14 players are available, and Coach Hamilton has them all playing between 10-35 minutes per game.

PROBABLE STARTERS

5-7 sophomore guard Kymora Johnson #21 (18.4 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.8 stl)
6-4 senior forward Latasha Lattimore #35 (12.2 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.6 blk)
6-2 sophomore guard Olivia McGhee #0 (9.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.1 stl)
5-8 junior guard Paris Clark #1 (8.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.3 stl)
6-3 sophomore forward Edessa Noyan #8 (5.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 0.6 ast)

TOP RESERVES

6-2 freshman forward Breona Hurd #32 (9.8 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.1 stl)
5-8 junior guard Yonta Vaughn #5 (7.4 pts, 2.6 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.3 stl)
6-7 grad center Taylor Lauterbach #41 (4.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 0.8 ast, 1.4 blk)
5-9 grad guard Casey Valenti-Paea #10 (2.4 pts, 1.6 reb, 0.8 ast)
6-4 sophomore forward RyLee Grays #2 (2.2 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.1 ast)
5-11 freshman guard Payton Dunbar #23 (2.6 pts, 1.2 reb, 0.7 ast)

INJURED/OTHER

5-11 senior guard Jillian Brown #4 -- out for season; knee injury in May
6-7 sophomore center Hawa Doumbouya #7 -- redshirting
5-9 freshman guard Kamryn Kitchen #12 -- redshirting

Kymora Johnson is at the high end of that minutes distribution with 34.9 minutes per game, 2nd most in the conference, and she's putting up an average stat line of almost 18-5-5-2, which might make her the most versatile ACC guard who isn't in Notre Dame's backcourt. Latasha Lattimore played a total of 36 games in her sophomore and junior seasons at Miami, but has yet to face Duke. She ranks 6th in the ACC in rebounds and 4th in blocks. Both Johnson and Lattimore are, however, tied with 52 turnovers each, the 5th highest figure for any player in the league.

Bart Torvik kept Duke T-ranked at #11, but he may have been swayed by Thursday's loss to UNC; his prediction of Duke beating UVA went from 82-64 a few days ago to 79-62 now. Team stats show that UVA ranks highly in both rebounds (25th) and blocked shots (20th). That's tallness in action. A comparison table, with stats from Sports Reference and elsewhere:

CategoryVirginia (10-6, 2-2 ACC)Duke (12-4, 3-1 ACC)
Points Scored71.6 (90th nationally)78.1 (38th)
Points Allowed64.1 (181st)61.4 (134th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com)7.5 (112th)16.7 (41st)
Bench Points (NCAA.com)19.9 (155th)33.1 (8th)
Total Rebounds42.6 (25th)40.5 (53rd)
--- Offensive Rebounds13.4 (83rd)15.0 (30th)
--- Defensive Rebounds29.2 (19th)25.5 (151st)
Assists15.4 (82nd)17.3 (29th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com)0.87 (143rd)1.05 (62nd)
Steals8.7 (148th)11.5 (32nd)
Blocks5.1 (20th)4.4 (42nd)
Turnovers17.7 (242nd fewest)16.4 (168th fewest)
Personal Fouls15.6 (107th fewest)17.8 (247th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage41.5% (164th)46.4% (29th)
2-Point FG Percentage47.9% (130th)49.9% (85th)
3-Point FG Percentage30.9% (179th)36.7% (27th)
Free Throw Percentage71.5% (154th)64.3% (320th)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com)#101#10
--- Strength of Schedule116th3rd
--- Quad 1 record0-23-3
--- Quad 2 record1-12-1
--- Quad 3 record0-23-0
--- Quad 4 record9-14-0
T-Rank (Bart Torvik)#93 (T-Page)#11 (T-Page)

In October, the NCAA published a PDF file of frequently asked questions for the NET in women's basketball. Quadrants are defined on page 4:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-25, Neutral 1-35, Away 1-45
Quadrant 2: Home 26-55, Neutral 36-65, Away 46-80
Quadrant 3: Home 56-90, Neutral 66-105, Away 81-130
Quadrant 4: Home 91-362, Neutral 106-362, Away 131-362
 
Duke WBB plays at Virginia on Sunday 1/12 at 12pm ET on ACCN (streaming link, listen, live stats)

wbb20250112.jpg
(source)

Duke links: preview, PDF game notes
UVA links: preview, PDF game notes

Jenn Hildreth (Emory soccer/basketball/track, bio) and Kelly Gramlich (Clemson basketball, bio) have the call for the ACC Network telecast.

Kelly Gramlich also covers college football for the ACC Network with fellow Clemson alum Eric Mac Lain. A few days ago they did a recap of the conference's bowl season.


"I pretty much wear these [quarter-zips] to every shootaround, and it's funny because I'm about to head up to Duke, I'm calling a Duke game... I was putting this on for the show, and I'm like, I can't wear this to Duke. It's way too Carolina blue. I can't do that to them, so I'll have to go find another one in my closet..."

She also listed Duke as one of the few overachieving teams in ACC football this season, and they both were rooting for Riley Leonard and RJ Oben, former Blue Devils now playing for Notre Dame, in the College Football Playoff.
 
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Just abysmal basketball. Of course we are shooting lousy. We aren’t generating good looks at all. It’s a zone defense, and we haven’t exploited it at all.
 
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