2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion

[jv001]

I think I'm being pretty realistic in expecting Gillis/James to start the season ahead of K2/Evans, but then also expecting one (not both) to perform like a Gary Trent or AJ Griffin or McCain and jump ahead of either James or Gillis by year end.

And I'm not saying it's guaranteed to happen - just more likely than not based on history.

As for history, I can't remember Duke getting 3 transfers in one season that have the upside that Gillis, James and Brown have. Coach Scheyer and staff are operating in a new climate created by the free agent/portal. I'm with you it's quite possible that one of K2 and Evans jump ahead of one of the 3 transfers. It's going to be an interesting and hopefully terrific season.

GoDuke!

 

[goFurman]

Can I steal this as the tag line for the podcast in the off-season?

It appears obvious that JE plays poker.

The key to poker is making wise decisions with less than all the information !

 

[JasonEvans]

It appears obvious that JE plays poker.

The key to poker is making wise decisions with less than all the information !

Me after winning a tournament at the Borgata

Me using my winnings and "less than all the information" to make a foolish wager

 

[JasonEvans]

Patrick Ngongba's performance in game 1 of the U18 Americup for Team USA was... ok, nothing special.

He only played 12 minutes as 7-3 Daniel Jacobsen who is headed to Purdue dominated the minutes in the post. Jacobsen, who appears to have been criminally underrated as barely a top 100 recruit, had 9 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 blocked shots in the first game against Argentina. In the same game, Pat had 3 points (1-1 FGs and he was fouled and made the FT) with 3 rebounds and 1 block.

Class of 2025 PG Darius Acuff (#4 player in the class) was the star of the game with 22 points on 9-18 shooting to go with 5 rebs and 3 assists.

Team USA beat Argentina 88-66 despite shooting just 2-22 from 3 point range. Ouch!

We play Belize today and Brazil tomorrow.

https://www.usab.com/teams/5x5-mens-u18-americup/schedules

 

[goFurman]

Me after winning a tournament at the Borgata

Me using my winnings and "less than all the information" to make a foolish wager

Jason, please check your private messages if you have a minute - GoFurman

 

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Jason, please check your private messages if you have a minute - GoFurman

Are you betting your house on Furman cutting down the nets in March?

 

[brevity]

Patrick Ngongba's performance in game 1 of the U18 Americup for Team USA was... ok, nothing special.

He only played 12 minutes as 7-3 Daniel Jacobsen who is headed to Purdue dominated the minutes in the post. Jacobsen, who appears to have been criminally underrated as barely a top 100 recruit, had 9 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 blocked shots in the first game against Argentina. In the same game, Pat had 3 points (1-1 FGs and he was fouled and made the FT) with 3 rebounds and 1 block.

Class of 2025 PG Darius Acuff (#4 player in the class) was the star of the game with 22 points on 9-18 shooting to go with 5 rebs and 3 assists.

Team USA beat Argentina 88-66 despite shooting just 2-22 from 3 point range. Ouch!

I was looking for highlights, but FIBA has the full game on YouTube:

I appreciated seeing Team USA line up in numerical jersey order. 2025 recruit and Duke offer Nate Ament (#10) stood next to Patrick Ngongba (#11); it could be his hair, but the 6-8 Ament looked close to the 6-11 Ngongba in height. USA Basketball offers a box score and a recap. Ngongba's line was posted above, but Ament had 3 points in 3 minutes (1/1 FG, 1/2 FT).

 

[scottdude8]

Patrick Ngongba's performance in game 1 of the U18 Americup for Team USA was... ok, nothing special.

He only played 12 minutes as 7-3 Daniel Jacobsen who is headed to Purdue dominated the minutes in the post. Jacobsen, who appears to have been criminally underrated as barely a top 100 recruit, had 9 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 blocked shots in the first game against Argentina. In the same game, Pat had 3 points (1-1 FGs and he was fouled and made the FT) with 3 rebounds and 1 block.

Class of 2025 PG Darius Acuff (#4 player in the class) was the star of the game with 22 points on 9-18 shooting to go with 5 rebs and 3 assists.

Team USA beat Argentina 88-66 despite shooting just 2-22 from 3 point range. Ouch!

We play Belize today and Brazil tomorrow.

https://www.usab.com/teams/5x5-mens-u18-americup/schedules

History tells us that an underrated 7+ footer going to Purdue spells trouble for the country... going back beyond Zach Edey too. Will be interesting to see if Matt Painter is able to maintain some continuity from last year's team into this year's without Edey, given that so many of the complimentary pieces return... Jacobsen could help them do something like that.

Given Ngongba's unique injury history and path to Duke, I'm going into the season with the mindset that anything he brings to the table is a bonus. I hope the team won't be relying on him heavily, but he has the potential to still contribute, and if he ends up doing so it only makes us better/deeper.

 

[brevity]

We play Belize today and Brazil tomorrow.

https://www.usab.com/teams/5x5-mens-u18-americup/schedules

In the other game yesterday, the newcomers from Belize actually beat Brazil 106-102 (recap, box score, full game replay).

You can watch today's Belize game on the Bleacher Report app or livestreamed on YouTube from FIBA or House of Highlights:

I'm embedding the latter on the offhand chance that the telecast is in English. I like the Argentinian announcers for FIBA -- the games are in Buenos Aires -- but this is basketball, not soccer. By the time one of them finishes his call of "¡Gooooooooooool!" the teams have already scored two more times. (That lame joke was in honor of the legendary Andrés Cantor, also from Buenos Aires.)

 

[goFurman]

Are you betting your house on Furman cutting down the nets in March?

well our best player in now at Auburn $$$... (JP Pegues) its sad, mid majors are just the minor leagues now...

That said, I hypothetically' put money on UVA to beat Furman in that thrilling upset in the 2023 NCAA tourney ! So, I lost money - and was quite glad that I did . At the end I was thinking would I be willing to lose money for FU to win? OH YES - without a doubt !!!

FYI - the guy that Auburn bought is the guy that hit the winning shot over UVA ---boo

 

[SkyBrickey]

History tells us that an underrated 7+ footer going to Purdue spells trouble for the country... going back beyond Zach Edey too. Will be interesting to see if Matt Painter is able to maintain some continuity from last year's team into this year's without Edey, given that so many of the complimentary pieces return... Jacobsen could help them do something like that.

Given Ngongba's unique injury history and path to Duke, I'm going into the season with the mindset that anything he brings to the table is a bonus. I hope the team won't be relying on him heavily, but he has the potential to still contribute, and if he ends up doing so it only makes us better/deeper.

I'm glad Pat made the team and is playing competitive ball this summer. I'm not at all ready to concede the Purdue center is a better player than Pat, because I expect Pat still has a ways to go to fully recover from a season long injury - playing shape, timing, etc. And it's one of the reasons why I think it's unlikely we'll see Pat in the rotation this season backing up the 5.

 

[ChillinDuke]

A lot of people keep using "history" as a basis for their predictions, as if the world we are currently in has existed for some meaningful amount of time.

The Transfer Portal has only really been a thing for, what, 3 years?

Gary Trent, Justise Winslow, Trevor Keels, and basically everyone other than the Duke recruits of the last 2 years, were recruited at a time when there was relatively no ability to go out and fish for (or pluck) immediate impact transfers. So I simply don't understand this belief that any freshman is likely to earn significant minutes any longer. The base case should be freshmen are completely neutered regarding playing time in the current environment. Other than the true transformational players in a class (read: Top 5 ish), any other freshman that earns meaningful minutes would be surprising to me.

Assuming no injuries, we may get one non-Flagg/Maluach freshman that gets 15+mpg all season long. May. With injuries, maybe we get 2. But I wouldn't be shocked if none of our non-Flagg/Maluach freshman average 15mpg across the entire season.

- Chillin

 

[azzefkram]

A lot of people keep using "history" as a basis for their predictions, as if the world we are currently in has existed for some meaningful amount of time.

The Transfer Portal has only really been a thing for, what, 3 years?

Gary Trent, Justise Winslow, Trevor Keels, and basically everyone other than the Duke recruits of the last 2 years, were recruited at a time when there was relatively no ability to go out and fish for (or pluck) immediate impact transfers. So I simply don't understand this belief that any freshman is likely to earn significant minutes any longer. The base case should be freshmen are completely neutered regarding playing time in the current environment. Other than the true transformational players in a class (read: Top 5 ish), any other freshman that earns meaningful minutes would be surprising to me.

Assuming no injuries, we may get one non-Flagg/Maluach freshman that gets 15+mpg all season long. May. With injuries, maybe we get 2. But I wouldn't be shocked if none of our non-Flagg/Maluach freshman average 15mpg across the entire season.

- Chillin

Completely agree. Past wing/guard recruits ranked in the 10-25 range came to Duke with no to minimal competition for rotation minutes. Of course, they got rotation minutes. This group will have competition. Maybe some or all of them will out-compete the transfers. I would be surprised. A couple of Jon's goals this off-season were to get older and be more physical. The transfers only accomplish this if they play significant minutes. If Jon just wanted to have maturity and physicality on the bench, he could have given me a call. I have some spare time and I watch every game anyways.

 

[SkyBrickey]

A lot of people keep using "history" as a basis for their predictions, as if the world we are currently in has existed for some meaningful amount of time.

The Transfer Portal has only really been a thing for, what, 3 years?

Gary Trent, Justise Winslow, Trevor Keels, and basically everyone other than the Duke recruits of the last 2 years, were recruited at a time when there was relatively no ability to go out and fish for (or pluck) immediate impact transfers. So I simply don't understand this belief that any freshman is likely to earn significant minutes any longer. The base case should be freshmen are completely neutered regarding playing time in the current environment. Other than the true transformational players in a class (read: Top 5 ish), any other freshman that earns meaningful minutes would be surprising to me.

Assuming no injuries, we may get one non-Flagg/Maluach freshman that gets 15+mpg all season long. May. With injuries, maybe we get 2. But I wouldn't be shocked if none of our non-Flagg/Maluach freshman average 15mpg across the entire season.

- Chillin

I think this is a good take for THIS team. But you only have to look back to last season when two freshmen guards ranked 12-18 were both in the top-6 rotation and played key roles on an Elite8 team.

 

[azzefkram]

I think this is a good take for THIS team. But you only have to look back to last season when two freshmen guards ranked 12-18 were both in the top-6 rotation and played key roles on an Elite8 team.

Who was their competition? Jaylen? Jaden? Maybe TJ? It might have played out differently if Udeh could have transferred in but he didn't. The 3 and back up guard were wide open for Jared and Caleb to get minutes.

 

[dlmzzz]

A lot of people keep using "history" as a basis for their predictions, as if the world we are currently in has existed for some meaningful amount of time.

The Transfer Portal has only really been a thing for, what, 3 years?

Gary Trent, Justise Winslow, Trevor Keels, and basically everyone other than the Duke recruits of the last 2 years, were recruited at a time when there was relatively no ability to go out and fish for (or pluck) immediate impact transfers. So I simply don't understand this belief that any freshman is likely to earn significant minutes any longer. The base case should be freshmen are completely neutered regarding playing time in the current environment. Other than the true transformational players in a class (read: Top 5 ish), any other freshman that earns meaningful minutes would be surprising to me.

Assuming no injuries, we may get one non-Flagg/Maluach freshman that gets 15+mpg all season long. May. With injuries, maybe we get 2. But I wouldn't be shocked if none of our non-Flagg/Maluach freshman average 15mpg across the entire season.

- Chillin

I'd project it more in terms of percentages. Maybe 50% of freshmen in the 10-25 range hit and blow up (e.g. McCain). We have three in that range, and one slightly outside of it. One of those is a big, and maybe their hit rate is lower (33%?). Maybe the person slightly outside that range only has a 25% chance of hitting in his first year. So I wouldn't say that any particular person is likely to get more than 15mpg (if we are using that as the cutoff for rotation minutes) but I think there still can be freshmen outside the top ten who show true talent and can force their way into the lineup.

 

[phaedrus]

I think this is a good take for THIS team. But you only have to look back to last season when two freshmen guards ranked 12-18 were both in the top-6 rotation and played key roles on an Elite8 team.

Indeed, we've had multiple impact freshmen from the 10-25 RSCI range every year of the Portaling Era. But this is the first year we've had three impact transfers, instead of 1-2 - although none of them have yet proven they can be a starting level player on a top-tier team (obviously, being 6th man on a top-tier team is pretty close). So there's no doubt that this year will be a little different, and there will be plenty of competition - for everyone.

 

[SkyBrickey]

Who was their competition? Jaylen? Jaden? Maybe TJ? It might have played out differently if Udeh could have transferred in but he didn't. The 3 and back up guard were wide open for Jared and Caleb to get minutes.

Are you just being disagreeable?

I didn't suggest they had competition., especially not after Jon decided to play a 3 guard lineup. This year the freshmen guards do have a lot of competition which is why it's such a great debate whether one or more will break into the rotation.

Even if they don't, it doesn't necessarily mean they aren't really good. It may just mean that James and Gillis are better.

 

[azzefkram]

Are you just being disagreeable?

I didn't suggest they had competition., especially not after Jon decided to play a 3 guard lineup. This year the freshmen guards do have a lot of competition which is why it's such a great debate whether one or more will break into the rotation.

Even if they don't, it doesn't necessarily mean they aren't really good. It may just mean that James and Gillis are better.

I've been known to be contrary on occasion.

I must have misunderstood your response and I agree that Duke's expected non-OAD freshmen are really good.

 

[JasonEvans]

You know, there is some precedent for Duke having 9 guys get double digit minutes. It happened in 1999 (Taymon Domzalski averaged 9.9mpg as the 9th man).

I could live with another season like 1999. Yup, that’s what I see for this coming year… for sure!