2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
SkyBrickey said:
You are fired up this morning!

I don't want Brown to start over Maluach. Quite the opposite. But if Maluach needs some time to adjust to the college game, Brown is a more than capable starter at the 5.

If Brown gets squeezed down to 15mpg because Cooper and Maluach are so dominant that they are earning 35/30 mpg at the 4/5, then that's a quality problem!

Unless Jon decides to play a 9-man rotation then only one out of four of Evans, K2, Ngongba, Harris are likely to get rotation minutes. Why you think it needs to be the third ranked guy who just missed a whole season of basketball is puzzling to me.
Click to expand...

Fighting a cold and/or allergies has made me cranky. I believe the 5 best players on next year's roster are Tyrese, Caleb, Flagg, Maluach, and Brown, so having one of those five squeezed down to 15 mpg is not a quality problem. Brown is a better starter than Evan, K2, Mason, and probably Sion. Back-ups will work themselves out.

While I am excited and happy with how Jon responded to the roster turnover this off-season, I am slightly puzzled. Out of the 12 scholarship players, I think 10 of them have the potential to command more than mop-up minutes (I see Harris and Sheffield as practice players). If Jon plays the typical 7 man rotation, that will leave at least three players unsatisfied. The guys on the 5-point play podcast (very hit or miss for me but often entertaining) talked about insurance. That seems like a good thing on paper, but none of the top 10 want to be insurance; they want to play. Who knows? Maybe this is the year Duke plays ten guys rotation minutes for about 70% of the games and skinnies the rotation for 30% of tight games. I may even believe it when I see it.
 
sagegrouse said:
I am operating out of the tentative conclusion that Jon will give at least nine players significant minutes. I think at most one transfer will be in the starting lineup, but at least three will play. (I spent too much time at Rice to gain much respect for Owl hoops.)

More later....
Click to expand...

SkyBrickey said:
I agree on the one transfer starter. I would love to see a true 9-man rotation, and a real uptempo pace to exploit all this talent, but I'm betting that at least by the end of the season, Jon has whittled it down to an Iron8. If he does go 9 deep, then yes I guess two of the four freshmen could get 10mpg+.
Click to expand...

Someone is going to bring these posts back up when we're at our usual 7.5-8 man rotation come February ;)

In all seriousness, though, when I look at the roster construction I agree that I see a potential for a 9 man rotation. But history tells us that won't materialize no matter how deep it appears we are on paper. That's one reason why I made sure I didn't go out on that limb on my recent appearances on the podcast, haha.

That said, I think we can confidently assert that all three of our transfers are going to be a part of the rotation... Brown was an All-ACC Defender last year, Gillis played 20+ mpg for the national runners up last year, and James is our most physical and experienced guard. Alongside our returning guards (Proctor and Foster) plus our all-but-assured OAD freshmen (Flagg and Maluach) that's 7 guys right there. That's why, as many have discussed, the most interesting part of the offseason may be the competition between the remaining freshmen, most likely K2 and Evans given their pedigrees, to be the 8th guy.

One thing that we don't talk as much about, but I think could be a part of the trajectory of this season, is that our rotation in November could look a lot different than it does in February. Many of us have talked about how Maluach may start slowly, meaning Brown plays more at the 5 early in the season before Maluach takes over. My hot take (again, as of just June 3) is that I think K2 or Evans could overtake James (or possibly Gillis) in the rotation come February. Both will have things they have to work through adjusting to the college game (K2 defensively given his athletic limitations, Evans physically given his current frame), but if they improve over the course of the season they could demand major minutes later in the year. A Grayson Allen-like trajectory isn't outlandish... after all, both guys are in a similar range recruiting wise as Grayson was.
 
Based on recruiting rankings and history, it does seem likely that either K2 or Evans will rise to supplant one of the vets as the sixth or seventh man by the end of the season.

It could be James that gets squeezed, but I do think out of all our wing players, he is probably best to defend quick opposing guards for those 20-25mpg when one of Foster/Proctor is on the bench. So it could be Gillis instead that gets squeezed a bit for minutes if either K2 or Evans starts blowing up...
 
azzefkram said:
Fighting a cold and/or allergies has made me cranky. I believe the 5 best players on next year's roster are Tyrese, Caleb, Flagg, Maluach, and Brown, so having one of those five squeezed down to 15 mpg is not a quality problem. Brown is a better starter than Evan, K2, Mason, and probably Sion. Back-ups will work themselves out.

While I am excited and happy with how Jon responded to the roster turnover this off-season, I am slightly puzzled. Out of the 12 scholarship players, I think 10 of them have the potential to command more than mop-up minutes (I see Harris and Sheffield as practice players). If Jon plays the typical 7 man rotation, that will leave at least three players unsatisfied. The guys on the 5-point play podcast (very hit or miss for me but often entertaining) talked about insurance. That seems like a good thing on paper, but none of the top 10 want to be insurance; they want to play. Who knows? Maybe this is the year Duke plays ten guys rotation minutes for about 70% of the games and skinnies the rotation for 30% of tight games. I may even believe it when I see it.
Click to expand...

Sorry you feel bad! I too think Brown is one of our best players - and I've been predicting he could play the third or fourth most minutes on the team - but I'm not convinced he's any more VALUABLE to the team than Gillis or James. I think the minutes and value of all three will depend somewhat on how quickly certain 5-star freshmen develop.

I think Darren Harris would start on a lot of P5 teams. The kid has game and he exudes confidence. So I think we've got 11 rotation players on a team that will likely run out 8 late in the year.

Hopefully a F4 or a National Championship will ease some disappointment on playing time and all of Evans, K2, Harris and Ngongba will return for 2025-26 with a goal of starting. No more 5th year guys (Gillis, James, RJ Davis, ...) in 2025-26.

Let's hear it for a 6 man rotation of Foster, K2, Harris, Evans, Brown, Ngongba. Add in frosh Boozer (#2) at the 4/5 and a frosh CG like Braydon Burries (#12) and we are loaded for bear in 2025-26! :)
 
Last edited:
SkyBrickey said:
Based on recruiting rankings and history, it does seem likely that either K2 or Evans will rise to supplant one of the vets as the sixth or seventh man by the end of the season.

It could be James that gets squeezed, but I do think out of all our wing players, he is probably best to defend quick opposing guards for those 20-25mpg when one of Foster/Proctor is on the bench. So it could be Gillis instead that gets squeezed a bit for minutes if either K2 or Evans starts blowing up...
Click to expand...

There is a bit of selection bias going on here (not just with you SkyB). Recruits in K2/Evan ranking range came to Duke facing minimal to no competition for minutes. That won't be the case. Prior to Gillis transferring in, I thought K2 and Evans would play significant minutes. Once Gillis happened, I thought K2 and Evans would have to duke it out for a rotation spot. When I heard Duke was looking for another guard in the portal, I expected a Sheffield type. When it turned out to be Sion, I thought finally the dream of a deep rotation will be realized, and then my near half century of Duke fandom brought me back to reality.

I am not denying K2 or Evans's talent, but anyone assuming they will play based on what has happened in the past is failing to acknowledge the significantly different situations they will face on the Duke roster and in college basketball.
 
I think I'm being pretty realistic in expecting Gillis/James to start the season ahead of K2/Evans, but then also expecting one (not both) to perform like a Gary Trent or AJ Griffin or McCain and jump ahead of either James or Gillis by year end.

And I'm not saying it's guaranteed to happen - just more likely than not based on history.
 
scottdude8 said:
Someone is going to bring these posts back up when we're at our usual 7.5-8 man rotation come February ;)

In all seriousness, though, when I look at the roster construction I agree that I see a potential for a 9 man rotation. But history tells us that won't materialize no matter how deep it appears we are on paper. That's one reason why I made sure I didn't go out on that limb on my recent appearances on the podcast, haha.

That said, I think we can confidently assert that all three of our transfers are going to be a part of the rotation... Brown was an All-ACC Defender last year, Gillis played 20+ mpg for the national runners up last year, and James is our most physical and experienced guard. Alongside our returning guards (Proctor and Foster) plus our all-but-assured OAD freshmen (Flagg and Maluach) that's 7 guys right there. That's why, as many have discussed, the most interesting part of the offseason may be the competition between the remaining freshmen, most likely K2 and Evans given their pedigrees, to be the 8th guy.

One thing that we don't talk as much about, but I think could be a part of the trajectory of this season, is that our rotation in November could look a lot different than it does in February. Many of us have talked about how Maluach may start slowly, meaning Brown plays more at the 5 early in the season before Maluach takes over. My hot take (again, as of just June 3) is that I think K2 or Evans could overtake James (or possibly Gillis) in the rotation come February. Both will have things they have to work through adjusting to the college game (K2 defensively given his athletic limitations, Evans physically given his current frame), but if they improve over the course of the season they could demand major minutes later in the year. A Grayson Allen-like trajectory isn't outlandish... after all, both guys are in a similar range recruiting wise as Grayson was.
Click to expand...

I would generally agree with this take. But my only word of caution is that Scheyer has said he wants to get older and more experienced and I don’t think he wanted that for games in November. The general narrative around college hoops right now is that “old teams win” and that narrative is built around recent performances in March/April.

So I sorta do wonder what to expect from some of these freshmen who traditionally we might have expected to “come on strong” as the season wears on. It’s going to be fascinating to watch. If one or more of them are good enough to force Scheyer’s hand, that is probably a really good thing for Duke.
 
SkyBrickey said:
Sorry you feel bad! I too think Brown is one of our best players - and I've been predicting he could play the third or fourth most minutes on the team - but I'm not convinced he's any more VALUABLE to the team than Gillis or James. I think the minutes and value of all three will depend somewhat on how quickly certain 5-star freshmen develop.

I think Darren Harris would start on a lot of P5 teams. The kid has game and he exudes confidence. So I think we've got 11 rotation players on a team that will likely run out 8 late in the year.

Hopefully a F4 or a National Championship will ease some disappointment on playing time and all of Evans, K2, Harris and Ngongba will return for 2025-26 with a goal of starting. No more 5th year guys (Gillis, James, RJ Davis, ...) in 2025-26.

Let's hear it for a 6 man rotation of Foster, K2, Harris, Evans, Brown, Ngongba. Add in frosh Boozer (#2) at the 4/5 and a frosh CG like Braydon Burries (#12) and we are loaded for bear in 2025-26! :)
Click to expand...

Thank you. I do think I'm on the tail end of whatever I'm going through. This morning, I read an article on TDD from Brian Geisinger about Maliq and it made me more convinced that he is a starter. I still think he will be more valuable than Gillis or James. With respect to James, I'd assumed the guard rotation would be Tyrese, Caleb, and James 30/30/20 but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up 27/27/26. With respect to Gillis, there is something to be said about being comfortable and excelling in a sixth man role. I'm not sure I would want to mess with that.

As for 25-26, I can't even think about it. I'm having too much fun "discussing" 24-25 ;).
 
IMHO, where humility vanished long ago, Maliq has much less offense than Mark Mitchell. Why, prithee say, should he be a starter?
 
azzefkram said:
Thank you. I do think I'm on the tail end of whatever I'm going through. This morning, I read an article on TDD from Brian Geisinger about Maliq and it made me more convinced that he is a starter. I still think he will be more valuable than Gillis or James. With respect to James, I'd assumed the guard rotation would be Tyrese, Caleb, and James 30/30/20 but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up 27/27/26. With respect to Gillis, there is something to be said about being comfortable and excelling in a sixth man role. I'm not sure I would want to mess with that.

As for 25-26, I can't even think about it. I'm having too much fun "discussing" 24-25 ;).
Click to expand...

Well, we disagree on the frontcourt rotation, but we see eye-to-eye exactly on a Proctor/Foster/James rotation. I don't think all three will start because I think all three are needed to share the 1/2. Finding common ground!
 
sagegrouse said:
IMHO, where humility vanished long ago, Maliq has much less offense than Mark Mitchell. Why, prithee say, should he be a starter?
Click to expand...

Well, Brown's usage rate is lower, that's true. But I'd much rather have Brown be taking shots than Mitchell. He did make 10 less field goals on the year than Mitchell did, but he took 50 less shots to do it. I think we'll have plenty of people to take shots next year, so I see the low usage rate as a good thing.

That said, I've decided to back off on predicting who will start. Just too many players who could shine.
 
dlmzzz said:
That said, I've decided to back off on predicting who will start. Just too many players who could shine.
Click to expand...

images
 
SkyBrickey said:
Well, we disagree on the frontcourt rotation, but we see eye-to-eye exactly on a Proctor/Foster/James rotation. I don't think all three will start because I think all three are needed to share the 1/2. Finding common ground!
Click to expand...

There is hope for society yet. You know, I have never had a strawberry rhubarb pie. Maybe I will be enjoying my first taste around this time next year :D.
 
evrim said:
Love this. I read these comments and they are fun banter and brain exercise but has there been a year that they were accurate? We are making predictions with very little information.
Click to expand...

I don't know about very little information. I think Jon has left us a trail of breadcrumbs to follow... Yet even he does not yet know his starting 5.

Is that perhaps a breadcrumb too? If he were planning to play Cooper at the 3 and Maliq at the 4, isn't he more likely to know his starting lineup? :)
 
JasonEvans said:
Can I steal this as the tag line for the podcast in the off-season?
Click to expand...

I feel like this should be my introduction the next time I guest... "Joining us today, to make predictions with very little information, is Scott Rich (who, once again, is not Sion James!)." ;)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top