Indoor66
Well-known member
T
What is "the nail"?
2024-2025 Men’s Basketball Season: General Offseason Discussion
- Thread starter cato
- Start date
- Status
Middle of the free throw line.
The 'nail': Where help defense originates
NBA help defense is a complex thing, but almost all great schemes center around several core concepts. This week, we talk about the one spot on the floor that is more important than any other.
www.sbnation.com
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
For those who doubt Kon's defense --
K2 versus RJ Davis...
This does not end well for the Carolina All-American
K2 versus RJ Davis...
This does not end well for the Carolina All-American
It's funny you mention that because I remember catching a bit of a UNC-State game last season and a State player picked up Cadeau just after halfcourt. I turned to my lovely bride and said this isn't going to end well for State. Lo and behold, Cadeau zips right past the player and into the lane for an easy dish. Until Cadeau has a shot you have to respect, I don't know why anyone would closely guard him on the perimeter.
Let's hope he doesn't develop a shot.
SkyBrickey
Member
D-up Kon!
His height and strength can help compensate for any lateral quickness issues. We all assume that he and Evans will be below average defenders, but a summer of scrimmages with this crew should really up their game.
His height and strength can help compensate for any lateral quickness issues. We all assume that he and Evans will be below average defenders, but a summer of scrimmages with this crew should really up their game.
-jk
Well-known Moderator
Great point. And Jon talked about how this summer they were focusing more on team activities rather than individual work like in previous seasons. What jumped out to me in the scrimmage videos is the quality of each team 1-5. Love Jaylen Blakes, but he wasn’t putting much offensive pressure on the White team in practice. This year there are going to be some battles!
And where Kon’s size/strength should mitigate whatever lack of lateral quickness he might have, Isaiah’s length and quickness should help with his relative lack of mass.
kAzE
Member
Time for another bold prediction: By the end of the season, K2 will be playing more minutes than Caleb Foster.
Not trying to throw shade at Caleb, I just think Kon is a better fit with Coop and Tyrese. The numbers on KenPom from last year on lineups with Tyrese and Caleb on the floor together were the worst lineups we had. Maybe that had more to do with the fact that most those lineups didn’t include Jeremy, but it’s still concerning.
Perhaps Caleb improves a lot more than I’m expecting, or maybe just playing with Coop unlocks him, and this ends up looking like a dumb post, but damn, I don’t know how you keep a shooter like K2 on the bench.
Also just makes a lot of sense to me bringing Caleb off the bench to let him have more on ball reps.
Not trying to throw shade at Caleb, I just think Kon is a better fit with Coop and Tyrese. The numbers on KenPom from last year on lineups with Tyrese and Caleb on the floor together were the worst lineups we had. Maybe that had more to do with the fact that most those lineups didn’t include Jeremy, but it’s still concerning.
Perhaps Caleb improves a lot more than I’m expecting, or maybe just playing with Coop unlocks him, and this ends up looking like a dumb post, but damn, I don’t know how you keep a shooter like K2 on the bench.
Also just makes a lot of sense to me bringing Caleb off the bench to let him have more on ball reps.
FosterCoachK82
Member
One thing I haven’t seen discussed here: How many minutes do you think each of our players will get? And who will be the starters? And where will Cooper play?
AGDukesky
Member
Yeah given the lack of true guards on the roster, I always thought it made sense to bring one of Foster/Proctor (ball handlers) off the bench and give one of the gajillion wings the start. Proctor and Foster would still overlap some but I was thinking that would be more late in games or situational. K2 has seemed perfect for that role if he adjusts to the speed of college.
Of course, Jon played on the last Duke team to be so short on guards and all the experienced ones started that year. So maybe we should expect Proctor, Foster and James to start…
Bart Torvik updated his preseason projections and Duke’s solidly in his top tier (of two teams). Knowing that projections like this are the very definition of inexact… I still have to say - the projections he has for Flagg are rather eye-popping.
T-Page for Duke - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.www.barttorvik.com
As you say, the ratings projections are obviously inexact, but it seemed worth taking a look at how this would shake out at the macro level. And, no surprise, we should be prepared for yet another year where the ACC lags behind where it should be relative to the other power leagues and it will show up again in NCAA selections when ACC teams' resumes are hurt by their relative lack of Q1 chances/wins (and they face the prospect of a larger number of potential "bad losses" in conference).
I lay out below how each P5 conference stacks up in its in-conference schedule strength based on Torvik's ratings. Some key takeaways:
· SEC is #1, with 4 Top 11 teams, 7 in Top 25, and all 16 in Top 67 (lowest is #66 Vandy and #67 Okla).
· Big 12 is, as has been widely discussed, very top heavy, with 5 in Top 14, but also #80 Utah, #83 West Va., #92 Oklahoma St. and #115 Colorado, so will not have quite as strong in-conference schedules as in years past.
· Big 10 is most balanced, with no teams in Top 15, but 5 rated between #16-24, and then another 10 between #31-#51.
· 72% of SEC matchups are projected to be Q1, followed closely by Big 12 (66%) and Big 10 (64%). Big East (50%) and ACC (42%) lag well behind.
· ACC and Big East are also weakest at the lower end, with 19% (#87 Va. Tech, #88 Stanford, #93 Florida St., #96 Ga. Tech, #107 Cal, #147 BC and @ BC) and 18% (#77 Butler, #90 Seton Hall, #108 Georgetown and #127 DePaul) of their games projected to be Q3.
° None of the SEC or Big 10 matchups are projected to be Q3. Big 12 is projected at 4 Q3 matchups (12%).
· These numbers are of course somewhat arbitrary and impacted by the vagaries of where the ratings split, in particular for the ACC and Big 10, where road games at Minnesota (#70), Washington (#71), Syracuse (#72), Penn St. (#73) and SMU (#74) are all barely Q1 per Torvik’s ratings.
· Duke’s ACC schedule is about as strong as it could be, as its 3 home and homes are with the highest-rated non-Duke teams (NC, Miami, Wake).
ACC schedule strength by Quad opportunities
Q1 (15): Duke (2), @ Duke, UNC (6), @ UNC, Miami (29), @ Miami, @ Wake (32), @ Clemson (46), @ Pitt (52), @ NC St. (55), @ Louisville (62), @ Virginia (63), @ Notre Dame (68), @ Syracuse (72), @ SMU (74).
Q2 (14): Wake (32), Clemson (46), Pitt (52), NC St. (55), Louisville (62), U.Va. (63), N.D. (68), Syracuse (72), SMU (74), @ Va. Tech (87), @ Stanford (88), @ Fla. St. (93), @ G. Tech (96), @ Cal. (107).
Q3 (7): Va. Tech (87), Stanford (88), Fla. St. (93), G. Tech (96), Cal. (107), BC (147), @ BC.
Totals: 42% of opportunities Q1 (15/36), 39% Q2 (14/36), 19% Q3 (7/36)
SEC
Q1 (23): Tennesee (5), @ Tenn, Auburn (7), @ Aub., Alabama. (8), @ Ala, Texas (11), @ Tex, Texas A&M (21), @ Tex A&M, Miss St. (22), @ Miss St., Kentucky (23), @ Kentucky, @ Florida (35), @ Arkansas (36), @ Georgia (39), @ Miss (40), @ S. Carolina (54), @ LSU (59), @ Mizzou (61), @ Vandy (66), @ Okla (67).
Q2 (9): Florida (35), Arkansas (36), Georgia (39), Miss (40), S. Carolina (54), LSU (59), Mizzou (61), Vandy (66), Okla (67).
Q3 (0): None.
Totals: 72% of opportunities Q1 (23/32), 28% Q2 (9/32), 0% Q3
Big 10
Q1 (23): Purdue (16), @ Pur, Illinois (17), @ Ill., Michigan St. (18), @ Mich St., Rutgers (19), @ Rut., UCLA (24), @ UCLA, @ Indiana (31), @ Ohio St. (33), @ Michigan (34), @ Wisconsin (41), @ Maryland (42), @ Oregon (43), @ Iowa (45), @ Nebraska (47), @ Northwestern (48), @ USC (51), @ Minn. (70), @ Wash. (71), @ PSU (73).
Q2 (13): Indiana (31), Ohio St. (33), Mich. (34), Wisc. (41), Maryland (42), Oregon (43), Iowa (45), Neb. (47), N.Western (48), USC (51), Minn (70), Wash (71), Penn St. (73)
Q3 (0): None
Totals: 64% of opportunities Q1 (23/36), 36% Q2 (13/36), 0% Q3
Big 12
Q1 (21): Houston (1), @ Hou, Iowa St. (3), @ Iowa St., Kansas (4), @ KU, Arizona (10), @ Ariz (10), Baylor (14), @ Baylor, Texas Tech (20), @ Tex. Tech, BYU (27), @ BYU, Cincy (28), @ Cincy, K. St. (30), @ K. St., @ TCU (50), @ UCF (57), @ Ariz St. (64).
Q2 (7): TCU (50), UCF (57), Ariz St. (64), @ Utah (80), @ W.Va. (83), @ Ok St. (92), @ Colo (115).
Q3 (4): Utah (80), West Va (83), Okla St. (92), Colo (115).
Totals: 66% of opportunities Q1 (21/32), 22% Q2 (7/32), 13% Q3 (4/32)
Big East
Q1 (11): Conn (12), @ Conn, Creighton (13), @ Creigh, St. John's (15), @ St. John's, Marq (25), @ Marq, @ Xavier (37), @ Nova (44), @ Prov. (60)
Q2 (7): Xavier (37), Nova (44), Prov. (60), @ Butler (77), @ Seton Hall (90), @ Georgetown (108), @ Depaul (127)
Q3 (4): Butler (77), Seton Hall (90), Georgetown (108), DePaul (127)
Totals: 50% of opportunities Q1 (11/22), 32% Q2 (7/22), 18% Q3 (4/22)
SkyBrickey
Member
I expect both K2 and Caleb to be two of our biggest offensive weapons. Two of our top four scorers. No reason at all why they can't play together.
By the end of the season, and maybe from the start of the season, I expect Proctor/Foster/K2/Cooper/Maluach to be our go-to lineup with all three of the transfers getting 15-25mpg off the bench.
JasonEvans
Host, The Duke Basketball Roundup
Until I hear otherwise, I will believe that this brilliant post is what shut down the DBR boards for several hours.
camion
Member
Tonight, tonight,
The minutes seem like hours.
The Kenpom numbers don't match up with the numbers from CBB Analytics. Lineups with Proctor and Foster were +14 Net (92nd Percentile) with an Ortg 118.6 (95th) and Drtg 104.6 (68th)
House P
Member
Jon's first Duke team had 9 guys average more than 10 mpg over the entire season.
Jaylen Blakes fell out of the rotation in mid-Feb, but he still averaged 11.7 mpg (counting DNPs as 0 minutes) over the course of the entire season.
And this wasn't just a case of Jaylen getting a bunch of minutes in early season blowouts vs cupcakes. Blakes averaged 15.6 mpg over the Duke first 13 ACC games.
I should clarify that having 9 guys average 10+ mpg isn't the same as having a 9 man rotation in each game. Over the course of the first 13 ACC games in 2023, Duke's 8th and 9th man averaged 11.2 and 5.5 mpg respectively. This was due to injuries and the fact that the 9th man wasn't always the same player. Six different guys took turns being the "9th man" over Duke's first 13 ACC games. In fact, over the entire season, there were only three guys (Roach, Proctor, and Flip) who were in the top 7 in terms of minutes for every game where they were healthy.
I could easily imagine something similar this year where Duke plays an 8.5 man rotation for much of the season (shrinking to 7.5 in mid Feb) with several different guys taking turns being the 8th, 9th, and 10th man. This could result in 9 guys ending up with 400+ total minutes played.
I guess the question should be, how many minutes of playing time will it take for guys like; K2, Evans, Harris, and Pat to return for their sophomore seasons? I guess you could add Brown to that list as well even though he's not a freshman.
GoDuke!
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
Member
How on earth is a coach supposed to balance these sorts of questions with the goal of, you know, winning games? It seems an impossible task.
I have no idea. It makes me wonder if Sky's goldilock theory will work. I'd love to see a 9-man rotation but not at the expense of winning games. It's going to be hard to be a physical team playing so many young guys.
GoDuke!
Phredd3
Member
We just have to be good enough that it is easy to spread the minutes around. Simple.
- Status