I may be wrong which I am a lot. At least that's what my wife tells me. I think losing to Kansas and Kentucky makes it hard for Duke to get a 1 or 2 seed. Unless we beat Auburn, win almost all of our ACC regular season games and win the conference tournament. That could change if several other good teams lose games they are favored in. However, that doesn't mean we can't win the NCAAT being a 3 or 4 seed. It just makes it tougher.
Do you really think that a three loss Duke team with losses to only top 15 teams and on a 26 game win streak including at least two wins over UNC doesn't get a one or a TWO seed? Because that seems completely insane to me.
Agree. They are used to being 12-0 or 13-0 to start the season, but we usually didn't have this many tough games in the early season, and K always had his teams uber-prepared for early season games (unfortunately, many of those teams cooled down the stretch).
Per NET, duke's best win is Arizona, at #65.....
You said it better than I did. Thanks. With the ACC being a weak basketball league, if we don't win the regular season, it's going to be hard to get a 1 or 2 seed. We've had some really good teams that lost games to a weaker opponent that cost us the championship.
Well, yeah if we don't win the regular season. But that wasn't what you said in your previous comment at all.
This discussion may be better suited for the new designated NET/Bracketology thread, but I'll leave my thoughts here as a means of redirection
I guess it depends if you want to base your level of anxiety upon assuming Duke wins or Duke loses. I tend to assume Duke wins, because I'm a big fan and Duke tends to win. If you want to assume Duke loses, why be worried about out ability to get a one or two seed? Go all in and worry if we will make the tournament. Or maybe have to win in the ACC Tournament to even get to the quarterfinals.This discussion may be better suited for the new designated NET/Bracketology thread, but I'll leave my thoughts here as a means of redirection
The reality of a "weak conference" is a double-edged sword. Yes, Duke will likely have fewer Q1 opportunities than other teams, but if we take care of business we also will have fewer losses. It's the Gonzaga paradigm, essentially. In all likelihood we will have fewer Q1 wins than our competition from the Big 12 and SEC for top seeds, but if we have as good or better of a Q1 winning percentage, coupled with higher quality Q1 wins (Auburn would go a long way here) and minimal overall losses (particularly no "bad" Q3/4 losses), history shows we'll still be right there.
The other thing to keep in mind is that there is one big, positive difference for us at this point relative to the recent past, and that's the top-heavy nature of the conference. The Q1 opportunities we have should be top-tier Q1 opportunities if teams like Pitt and Clemson keep it up. Having those wins under our belt also makes a difference.
Right now Torvik has us projected to be 26-5 (17-3) this regular season. If that happens, I'd be absolutely shocked if we aren't a No. 1 seed. Again, it bears remembering that last year UNC finished 29-7 but earned a No. 1 seed, in an ACC that will in all likelihood look worse than this year's version come season's end (a top-heavy conference is better for resume building, I'd argue strongly).
It depends on how things shake down in other conferences too. If two teams from the SEC separate themselves as excellent and split their games, the top get more complicated than if one team runs the table.
The SEC looks to be an absolute gauntlet. 5 in Torvik's top 11(Top 12 in Kenpom)? That's crazy. For number one seeds, it COULD backfire if they all beat up on each other. Right now it looks like they will get two of them, but who knows.
I'm glad you provided a scenario (3 conference losses) where you could see Duke as a 3 or 4 seed, because that scenario seems likely or even optimistic to me. We've averaged about 5.5 conference losses since 18/19, and the fewest has been 4.
Again, if you are going to go ahead and predict lots of Ls, then yes, we could be a 3 seed. Or a 6 seed. Or miss the Dance.
For some context, last year's 2 seeds had 7, 8, 8, and 9 losses heading into the NCAA tournament. The year before, they had 5, 6, 6, and 8 losses, but all the 3 seeds had 9 or more pre-tournament losses (except Gonzaga, which had 5).I'm glad you provided a scenario (3 conference losses) where you could see Duke as a 3 or 4 seed, because that scenario seems likely or even optimistic to me. We've averaged about 5.5 conference losses since 18/19, and the fewest has been 4.
If we beat Auburn, I'll dial back my dark and dour mood.
Yes, you are correct that I did say not win the regular season. Looking at the Duke schedule. here are the games that I think we could be an upset victim. Listed with KP ranking today and in order of our schedule:
I'll wholly acknowledge I have no idea what will happen moving forward, and the conference does look to be pretty imbalanced. Also, Duke (even in good to great seasons) seems good for laying at least one regular season egg against someone we ought to beat.
UNC dropped from first to out of the polls just 2 years ago after 4 straight losses. edit: JK they went 1st to 18th and dropped out the following week. Either way, an equally precipitous fall IMO.
Average number of losses for #1 seeds the last five years: 4.3I'm glad you provided a scenario (3 conference losses) where you could see Duke as a 3 or 4 seed, because that scenario seems likely or even optimistic to me. We've averaged about 5.5 conference losses since 18/19, and the fewest has been 4.
If we beat Auburn, I'll dial back my dark and dour mood.
Right. I remember Carolina's fall as a very happy memory, but it took two weeks.