Some thoughts on UNC this year, here is a
link to their scrimmage from the other night:
RJ Davis is still hard to stop on offense but a liability on defense, due to his size and athleticism. RJ took a hard fall in the scrimmage, they say he will be okay but he has a back contusion. He might miss their exhibition with Memphis.
Elliot Cadau looks about the same as last year. Elliot will rack up the assists and hit some shots. He has an effective tear drop and is crafty around the rim but is undersized to be really effective there. On defense is a liability due to his size. He hit a 3 in the scrimmage and a couple of plays later, badly airballed a 15-footer.
Ian Jackson - excellent athleticism and speed. He shot 28% from 3 last year in OTE (43-158 attempts). It is hard to think that he will shoot as well or better from 3 going up a level of competition. He strikes me as a guy who is a volume shooter and likes to pound the ball and probe the defense. Ian meet RJ "that is what I do" Davis. Ian might be the second or third highest scorer for UNC but I think that will be on inefficient numbers. TO's will also be something to keep an eye on for Ian. Ian has mentioned that college ball has been an adjustment on how he thinks about the game. Ian has the physical attributes to be an effective defender but like most freshman will struggle with consistency on the defensive side. In the scrimmage, Ian had a play where he wowed the crowd by spinning and blowing by defenders only to miss the layup by hitting the
underside of the rim.
IC is really high on Seth Trimble, some are saying he might start in front of Ian. He led the team in the scrimmage with pretty efficient scoring. Another guy who likes to pound the ball and probe the defense. Seth meet Ian and RJ. Excellent athleticism and good speed. Looks like he has improved his offense. In the scrimmage you can see that he is often fading in different directions on his outside shots and doesn't have a good base (see Kon and Darren). Elite defender. He can backup RJ, Elliot, and Ian.
Drake Powell has good length and excellent athleticism. Good shooter (62/42/80 shooting splits in SR HS). Excellent defender, will shut down his man. I think he has to be in the lineup but where? He is a little light for the 4 and I think there is a logjam at the 3. Has mentioned that he is trying to improve as a rebounder, which UNC really needs. Not sure he is currently built to bang in the lane.
Cade Tyson (6-7, 200 lbs) - another player where I'm not sure about his fit on the roster. A really good 3-pt shooter. UNC is hoping for Brady Manek 2.0. Has below average athleticism and speed. Looks like a liability (TJ Powers) on defense. I'm guessing he either starts at the four or backs it up. I think they need his shooting but don't need another liability on defense (Davis, Cadeau). They also need rebounding which is not something that Tyson really brings to the table. He had Powell guarding him in the scrimmage and struggled getting his outside shot off. Badly airballed a 3 at one point.
Jaelyn Withers has good size and athletism but just hasn't figured how to put it all togehter. IC is hopeful this is the year but I don't see it. A good tranistion player but struggles with decision making and consistency in half court sets on offense and defense. I think UNC is hoping that he could maybe the guy for the 4 or 5 (desperation). He looks more like a backup for the 4 and maybe the 5 for UNC. A step down as a backup though, unlike Trimble who I think can maintain consistency as a backup at the guard spot.
Jalen Washington - they really need him to be productive at the 5 and i think there are some concerns as to whether he is the guy. In the scrimmage he just didn't stand out at all. Jalen is a good shooter for a big but I don't see him getting the ball much for that role. I don't think he is a great rebounder as he doesn't do well with contact or height around him. He just doesn't seem to move well to me. I know he had significant injuries in the past but he either doesn't seem fully over them or is not as confident after the fact.
Ven-Allen Lubin - one of UNC's other options for the 5. Undersized at 6-8 (230) with height and just average athletically, I don't think he is an ideal option at the 5 for a team that has aspirations for a late march run. A decent rebounder for his size. He will struggle getting off shots and defending against height. Did hit a 3 in their scrimmage though.
I'm not sure what to make of UNC. Pundits seem to have them higher than where I see them. I tend to consistently underesell UNC, maybe just hoping that they will suck more than they do. While I think they have some interesting pieces, they seem to have a higher ceiling than floor though - If the freshman are lottery type picks in the NBA draft.
My starting 5 for them right now:
Elliot Cadaeu
RJ Davis
Ian Jackson
Drake Powell
Ven-Allen Lubin
I'm not as sold on Elliot as others. Beautiful passes and will have a lot of asissts but that shot can break anytime and defensively he will be targeted like RJ. Together they make an undersized backcourt. I feel like Scheyer made a concerted effort to get away from smaller guards and that should be an interesting story line for the Duke-UNC games this year.
Obviously RJ at the 2 is great but he does have some defensive concerns.
I think Ian gets the nod at the three, even if maybe Seth looks better right now because of the optics. A top ten recruit and UNC's history of hiding guys. I think Ian is good now with the potential to be really good but will struggle with decision making and consistency this year. i think he was able to rely on his excellent athletiscm in HS and will find college to be a little more constricted and cerebreal.
I'm leaning on Drake at the 4. If not at the start of the season than after a few games. I really like Drake and he is the one UNC guy that I would take on the Duke team without reservations. Somewhat concerned with him playing the 4 inside on defense and his ability to rebound in traffic. Ideally he should be at the 3 but they need some production in the frontcourt.
The 5 will probably be by committe as i don't know that anyone on the roster is capable of locking it down. I guess Ven-allen would get the nod as i think he prvides more rebounding and consistancy than the others. But he will struggle against other 5's with a pulse.
I don't think the backcourt of UNC is as great as everyone is saying. And their frontcourt is as concerning as everyone is saying. The froncourt has the potential to get worked on both ends.
Hubert is really pushing them to run this year and I think that is because if they have to operate in the half-court, there will be a lot of issues for a supposed top 10 team.
I think UNC is the type of team that will out talent teams outside of the top 25 but struggle with teams inside the top 25 and lose to anyone near the top 10.
