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  1. #361
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The major problem right now is the Ireland/NIreland border. Tons of folks cross the border daily to do business/shop/whatever. But, Ireland is part of the EU and NIreland is part of the UK and is going to Brexit the heck out of the EU.

    So, what do you do with that border? Do you put up customs stations to inspect and potentially tax any goods crossing over? Do you put up immigration posts to check visas/passports of everyone who moves across? The people of NIreland really don't want that because it would add time, money, and a pain in the rear to anything they did in Ireland. But, if you don't have those kinds of checks in place, then NIreland is essentially still part of the EU and would open a large back door through which anyone in the UK could emigrate or do business like they were still in the EU.

    I see no solution to this. Seriously, nothing works. The NIreland folks will not accept customs and immigration on their border and without their MPs, Theresa May's government will fall. But the Brexiteers cannot allow NIReland to be a part of the EU because that basically undermines the entire theory of Brexit.

    So, when faced with a really, really difficult question, Theresa May and the EU dealt with it the way all good politicians do... they employed the time honored tradition of punting it down the road. They agreed to talk about it in the future. They said they would try really hard come up with some sort of trade agreement that would allow for some freer movement of goods and people along the border, but they aren't sure exactly how that will work. In the mean time, things essentially won't change along the border. They also said that if the two sides cannot come to a new trade agreement, there is a "backstop" proposal that keeps the border open indefinitely.

    Well, it is pretty easy to see what the Brexiteers are worried about. They say the backstop allows EU countries/companies to continue to do business custom-free by going in through the NIreland back door. It would allow the EU to either never reach a trade agreement with the UK or at least give the EU ammo to blackmail the UK into a bad trade agreement.

    This whole thing is a Gordian knot. It will bring May down and I suspect, at some point before things are finalized, the UK will vote again and elect to remain in the EU.

    -Jason "writing this post made my head hurt... imagine what it must be to be Theresa May and have your entire career and legacy tied to this morass" Evans

    Pardon my ignorance, but why was it so easy to join the EU, but so hard to get out? Seems like gang affiliation to me.

  2. #362
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Pardon my ignorance, but why was it so easy to join the EU, but so hard to get out? Seems like gang affiliation to me.
    Same reason it was so easy to get into the United States, but so hard to get out (just ask the Confederate States).

    The sad thing is, that leaving the EU is infinitely easier for the UK than other countries for one simple reason, they still have their own currency. Imagine trying to leave the EU when you use the Euro as your currency.

  3. #363
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Same reason it was so easy to get into the United States, but so hard to get out (just ask the Confederate States).

    The sad thing is, that leaving the EU is infinitely easier for the UK than other countries for one simple reason, they still have their own currency. Imagine trying to leave the EU when you use the Euro as your currency.
    Infinitely easier still looks pretty hard.

  4. #364
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Same reason it was so easy to get into the United States, but so hard to get out (just ask the Confederate States).

    The sad thing is, that leaving the EU is infinitely easier for the UK than other countries for one simple reason, they still have their own currency. Imagine trying to leave the EU when you use the Euro as your currency.

    from this side almost agree with you, for France it would be harder, even don`t know they have other currency?

  5. #365
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Pardon my ignorance, but why was it so easy to join the EU, but so hard to get out? Seems like gang affiliation to me.
    It wasn’t easy for the UK to join in the first place. They tried several times. Some pompous French ex general did everything in his power to block it. (Before anyone takes offense, I’m English so I can saw that.) It took the death of de Gaulle to clear the way. Five decades later there are still hard feelings. It’s one of the reasons the UK was never 100% committed to the European experiment.

  6. #366
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The major problem right now is the Ireland/NIreland border. Tons of folks cross the border daily to do business/shop/whatever. But, Ireland is part of the EU and NIreland is part of the UK and is going to Brexit the heck out of the EU.

    So, what do you do with that border? Do you put up customs stations to inspect and potentially tax any goods crossing over? Do you put up immigration posts to check visas/passports of everyone who moves across? The people of NIreland really don't want that because it would add time, money, and a pain in the rear to anything they did in Ireland. But, if you don't have those kinds of checks in place, then NIreland is essentially still part of the EU and would open a large back door through which anyone in the UK could emigrate or do business like they were still in the EU.

    I see no solution to this. Seriously, nothing works. The NIreland folks will not accept customs and immigration on their border and without their MPs, Theresa May's government will fall. But the Brexiteers cannot allow NIReland to be a part of the EU because that basically undermines the entire theory of Brexit.

    So, when faced with a really, really difficult question, Theresa May and the EU dealt with it the way all good politicians do... they employed the time honored tradition of punting it down the road. They agreed to talk about it in the future. They said they would try really hard come up with some sort of trade agreement that would allow for some freer movement of goods and people along the border, but they aren't sure exactly how that will work. In the mean time, things essentially won't change along the border. They also said that if the two sides cannot come to a new trade agreement, there is a "backstop" proposal that keeps the border open indefinitely.

    Well, it is pretty easy to see what the Brexiteers are worried about. They say the backstop allows EU countries/companies to continue to do business custom-free by going in through the NIreland back door. It would allow the EU to either never reach a trade agreement with the UK or at least give the EU ammo to blackmail the UK into a bad trade agreement.

    This whole thing is a Gordian knot. It will bring May down and I suspect, at some point before things are finalized, the UK will vote again and elect to remain in the EU.

    -Jason "writing this post made my head hurt... imagine what it must be to be Theresa May and have your entire career and legacy tied to this morass" Evans
    The threat of a hard Irish border is more than inconvenient. It risks reigniting sectarian violence that plagued Ireland and London for generations. It is within most of our lifetimes that the IRA bombed sites in London and Northern Ireland. “The Troubles” are not a quaint point in history, they raged until the Good Friday Accords in 1998.

    Add to that, the Torries miscalculated last snap election and lost their outright majority. They are in a plurality alliance with the DUP (Northern Irish Party) to keep their coalition majority, and DUP is against any deal that treats Northern Ireland different than the UK. They are threatening to oppose the May Brexit deal, jeopardizing her governing coalition.

    What a mess.

  7. #367
    The Conservative Party got at least 48 no confidence letters and will trigger a vote on May’s future tonight. What a bloody mess. I honestly wish I could live in the reality of some of her critics. It must have unicorns and rainbows and a magical Brexit deal where the UK gets everything without penalty. I’m said it before, the deal is fair even if they don’t like it. The better option would be to just stay in the EU.

  8. #368
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    The Conservative Party got at least 48 no confidence letters and will trigger a vote on May’s future tonight. What a bloody mess. I honestly wish I could live in the reality of some of her critics. It must have unicorns and rainbows and a magical Brexit deal where the UK gets everything without penalty. I’m said it before, the deal is fair even if they don’t like it. The better option would be to just stay in the EU.
    I generally agree. Form the outside, it looks like the UK got about the best deal Tighe could given their lack of leverage (once you say you’re leaving, you’ve played your best card). But the deal is pretty bad. (If you want a funny but profanity-laced view of things, just google “Jonathan Pie” and watch his latest — not suitable for kids).

    I can’t see this really happening at the end of March.

  9. #369
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    The threat of a hard Irish border is more than inconvenient. It risks reigniting sectarian violence that plagued Ireland and London for generations. It is within most of our lifetimes that the IRA bombed sites in London and Northern Ireland. “The Troubles” are not a quaint point in history, they raged until the Good Friday Accords in 1998.

    Add to that, the Torries miscalculated last snap election and lost their outright majority. They are in a plurality alliance with the DUP (Northern Irish Party) to keep their coalition majority, and DUP is against any deal that treats Northern Ireland different than the UK. They are threatening to oppose the May Brexit deal, jeopardizing her governing coalition.

    What a mess.
    If Sinn Fein would just take the seats they won in the last election, they could make the DUP irrelevant. Time to put aside old-skool foolishness and do something for Ulster, lads.

  10. #370
    i think Brexit is bad step, especially for economics, European countries should be together

  11. #371
    May survives for the time. I thought she would. Sometimes it's better to have the devil you know verse the one you don't or Boris Johnson. Also it's easy to publicly criticize the PM's work. It's an entire different thing to actually be in charge of that work. Still Brexit is as muddy as ever. That Parliament vote can't be delayed forever.

  12. #372
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    If Sinn Fein would just take the seats they won in the last election, they could make the DUP irrelevant. Time to put aside old-skool foolishness and do something for Ulster, lads.
    Sinn Fein reaches out to Northern Ireland immediately after Brexit, trying to get the Northern Six to join the Republic.

    I understand the sentiment, but getting elected in order to not have representation seems a bit — much.

  13. #373
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    May survives for the time. I thought she would. Sometimes it's better to have the devil you know verse the one you don't or Boris Johnson. Also it's easy to publicly criticize the PM's work. It's an entire different thing to actually be in charge of that work. Still Brexit is as muddy as ever. That Parliament vote can't be delayed forever.
    When the Brexit vote happened, I had the impression that it was done rather quickly and that many didn't really realize the ramifications. I've also read the opinion that if the vote happened again it would go the other way. If you don't mind me asking: are either of those statements/impressions/opinions based in reality? I generally just keep quiet about it since I don't like to speak about politics until I know enough to say something useful.

  14. #374
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by elvis14 View Post
    When the Brexit vote happened, I had the impression that it was done rather quickly and that many didn't really realize the ramifications. I've also read the opinion that if the vote happened again it would go the other way. If you don't mind me asking: are either of those statements/impressions/opinions based in reality? I generally just keep quiet about it since I don't like to speak about politics until I know enough to say something useful.
    My recollection is that the day after Brexit passed, the most Googled question in the UK was -- "What are the impacts of Brexit?" or something like that. Yes, I think a lot of folks voted without being fully informed although I guess that is endemic to an open democracy.

    Not sure on the polling of whether it would pass now, but to me it is fairly simple -- now that you know this is the best deal possible, do you want to take the deal or not? And if no, do you want to stay in the EU or leave without a deal? A confirmation vote (a/k/a a "People's Vote") makes sense to me. But May seems intent that the vote to leave was taken, and that's that.


    Meanwhile, the German parliament apparently passed a vote today to the effect of -- the deal is the deal, no more renegotiating it. So May is stuck with a plan that almost surely will fail. What's next? Find out on the next episode of . . . Soap.

  15. #375
    Quote Originally Posted by berg View Post
    i think Brexit is bad step, especially for economics, European countries should be together
    The entire problem with the EU is that it is difficult (maybe impossible long term) to have an economic union without also a political union. Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece are having a very rough go of things because not having control of their own currency has led to their economies being uncompetitive with Germany and the more Northern countries. Under normal circumstances, they could devalue their currency and make their products a better value. With everyone using the Euro they lose this ability and then they lose their industry and their economies tank. They have to make drastic cuts while the export countries continue to prosper because they value of the euro stays current instead of appreciating like an independent currency would. Eventually the poorly performing countries ask for bailouts, then have to make drastic cuts to get the bailouts, resentment builds on both the countries funding the bailouts and those receiving them. At the end of the day I'm just not sure this EU experiment is going to work out. Maybe they can keep it rolling along for another few decades, but when it implodes it will be spectacular.

    The UK would do well to get out now, imo...even though the pain will be felt.

    Of course, a militaristic Russia that starts to go on the move could force an EU that decided to integrate their military and could force a pseudo-political union as they band together to deter Russia...so who really knows.

    I would still vote for leave the EU if I were in the UK.

  16. #376
    There was a lot of misinformation (mainly from the leave side) promising unrealistic things. Surprise, most of them were lies. I lot of people bought into it, many in rural areas. Scotland, North Ireland and London voted to stay but basically the rest of the country voted to leave. It was still close. The older votes overwhelmingly supported leave and turned up to the polls. The younger ones supported stay but didn’t come out as much. And then you have plenty of idiots who voted leave thinking it would never win. They just wanted to protest something. Surprise! Never side actually went into the minutiae of the process and the difficulties. The whole thing was basically a bone Davide Cameroon threw to his party to gain support think it would new come to anything. A new vote I think would still be close. A lot of leavers are digging in now. On a personal side note I’m not a fan of direct democracy. It requires a knowledge electorate that should base things on fact and not fanstany. The only referendum we have in my area for tax increases and they always pass so why bother
    Last edited by Kdogg; 12-13-2018 at 04:35 PM.

  17. #377
    ((( quoted content redacted )))

    Cards on the table I would have voted remain but some of the leavers had really justifications especially farmers and fishermen. I understand the anger of an unelected body in Brussels handing down laws and rules. But the alternative is worse especially in the short term. Immigration though was the real boogie man. The thing is the EU has built in mechanisms to limit it, the UK just never triggered them. Plus their free healthcare starts almost immediately even before people ehave a job. Germany, for example, doesn’t do that. It made the UK the preferred destination especially with Eastern Europeans. Mind you most of those people do find work especially in jobs Britons shun. If the UK just used what was in place it might have never come to a head.
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 12-14-2018 at 08:54 PM.

  18. #378
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    It wasn’t easy for the UK to join in the first place. They tried several times. Some pompous French ex general did everything in his power to block it. (Before anyone takes offense, I’m English so I can saw that.) It took the death of de Gaulle to clear the way. Five decades later there are still hard feelings. It’s one of the reasons the UK was never 100% committed to the European experiment.
    More complex, even. Britain spurned the initial European communities. Here's one link that accords with my (long and highly imperfect) memory:

    Why did the United Kingdom not join the European Union when it started?

    The United Kingdom was invited to participate in talks which led to the European Union’s predecessors: the Treaty of Paris (1951) which established the European Coal and Steel Community and the Treaty of Rome (1957) which established the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community. The British did not engage in a significant way with these talks and signed neither treaty at the time. They disliked many of the supranational and technocratic elements in the treaties. They were worried about damaging links with the Commonwealth, and they wished to pursue a ‘one-world economic system’ policy in which sterling was a central currency. The United Kingdom’s non-participation in the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community at the beginning meant than when Britain joined the European Economic Community in 1973 it had to accept many elements that have proved controversial with British voters: its supranationalism, common agricultural policy, and budget. These were all established before the British joined.
    Essentially, Britain valued the Commonwealth and its close ties to the US.

    It is important to understand that the EU is a French-German creation, led by prominent citizens of the two countries, to integrate their economies and thereby make sure that World War I and WW II could not reoccur. Britain was geographically separate and did not have the same motivation. The Benelux countries were natural additions given their geography and small size. Italy was one of the initial six, and it was a great advantage to that country to be given untaxed and basically unfettered access to the other EEC economies.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  19. #379
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    I suppose not everyone will find this amusing...but everyone loves J. K. Rowling, right? Here's her recent Twitter take on Brexit:

    "My mentions have taught me that Brexit is like Trump’s wall. For its devoted fans it has a symbolic value totally unrelated to its workability, its true cost or the glaring self-interest of its proposers, whereas non-believers see nothing but a deranged and costly vanity project."

  20. #380
    No, not everyone loves J. K. Rowling.

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