Who Stays and Who Goes?

[clinresga]

So if we lose Proctor we can blame Keels dumb decision

Not sure I see what makes his decision dumb. Are you saying that he's somehow worse off now than if he'd stayed at Duke another year, as regards his NBA prospects?

It was never clear that Keels could be a full-time NBA player. That's still very much in question--he's played, what, two games with the Knicks? So how would having stayed another year at Duke made things better? The Keels we see today, barely holding onto a 10 day contract, is Keels after a year of doing nothing but playing basketball--competing with NBA-quality opponents over 50 games, getting NBA-level coaching and training. How in the world would another year at Duke, with fewer than 30 games against mostly mediocre (far short of NBA-grade) college players, while having to handle a full academic load, resulted in Keels playing better basketball than he is now? No way.

Keels after two years of college would be inevitably worse than Keels after a year in the G League. At best, he'd end up the same place, as a second round choice without a guaranteed contract. By leaving, he gave himself the best possible chance to maximize his basketball skills this year, though the final outcome remains TBD.

That's not dumb for Keels. He may have hurt our feelings as Duke fans, but why should he have jeopardized his career chances just to make us happier?

[phaedrus]

Genuinely curious... why do more people see Lively leaving than Flip? Even after Lively got healthy, he wasn't much of a scorer, and it isn't like the NBA fully appreciates defense. All things considered, I'd think Flip would be closer to being NBA ready than Lively. I personally think both could stay and develop a bit further before departing, and would help their stock rise, but that's not my decision.

Among other reasons, it's because this statement - "it isn't like the NBA fully appreciates defense" - is completely backward. Figuring out where a player slots in defensively on an NBA roster is more important than their offense, especially for big men in today's game. There are many starting centers in the NBA who are their team's 4th or 5th (or 6th or 7th) option on offense: Gobert, Jarrett Allen, Robert Williams, Clint Capela, Kevon Looney, Steven Adams, Nic Claxton, our own Mason Plumlee. I think Lively will potentially be a better defender as a rookie than some of these guys. Offensively, he's behind a few of them now (if not all), but it's hard not to see him surpassing some of them within a few years - if only because these guys are not very adept scorers.

[CDu]

I had a kid recently graduate in 3.25 years (1 course senior year), so I know the rules pretty well:

*Course Credits required have increased from 32 to 34
*AP Credits are limited to 2, with only scores of 4 and 5 counting
*If you intend to graduate 1 semester early, AP credits can increase to 4. 2 semesters early, 8
*Most Duke students who are not engineers or pre-med can graduate in 3 years

But, most Duke students neither want nor plan to graduate early. Mine was trying to register for another semester when "You have completed all the requirements for graduation" popped up (Thank you Duke Registrar!!). Basketball players MAY not come in with usable AP credits, but with 4 summers, excellent advising, registration preferences and significant monetary incentives, it is quite possible.

Pretty sure those were all in place back in 2002. Definitely the first one was true as of the high school class of 1997 (expected graduating class of 2001).

I would imagine that the difficulty for bball players doing so in 3 years is that they water down their courseload during the Fall and Spring semesters. Probably only getting 3 credits per semester that truly contribute to their degree, with a fluffier class mixed in. I think athletes are even allowed to take an underload of 3 courses a semester (regular students may only do this once). So the summer coursework would just help them keep up in that case.

It's definitely doable (as Jay Williams and Savarino have shown), but it appears to be a pretty rare occurrence for Duke bball players. Probably because there aren't many guys looking to do that. Williams did it because that was his plan coming in as a freshman. Guys didn't typically leave super early back then, and he wanted the Duke degree. Savarino probably did it because he knew his grandfather's timeline in advance, and probably had more AP credit than a recruited athlete would have. But most players recruited by Duke are either thinking they are 1- or 2-and-done or they are on a 4-year plan anyway. So it's not likely to be a path they look to pursue.

All that being said, it's definitely possible that Roach is on track to graduate. We haven't heard any inkling that he is, but aside from Williams we've never heard such info in advance. So who knows, other than that it would be a pretty rare occurrence.

[dukelifer]

Not sure I see what makes his decision dumb. Are you saying that he's somehow worse off now than if he'd stayed at Duke another year, as regards his NBA prospects?

It was never clear that Keels could be a full-time NBA player. That's still very much in question--he's played, what, two games with the Knicks? So how would having stayed another year at Duke made things better? The Keels we see today, barely holding onto a 10 day contract, is Keels after a year of doing nothing but playing basketball--competing with NBA-quality opponents over 50 games, getting NBA-level coaching and training. How in the world would another year at Duke, with fewer than 30 games against mostly mediocre (far short of NBA-grade) college players, while having to handle a full academic load, resulted in Keels playing better basketball than he is now? No way.

Keels after two years of college would be inevitably worse than Keels after a year in the G League. At best, he'd end up the same place, as a second round choice without a guaranteed contract. By leaving, he gave himself the best possible chance to maximize his basketball skills this year, though the final outcome remains TBD.

That's not dumb for Keels. He may have hurt our feelings as Duke fans, but why should he have jeopardized his career chances just to make us happier?

There are a number of assumptions here. If Keels had averaged 20 a game and led Duke to a FF- it is possible that he could have been a first round pick with guaranteed money. He bet on himself that he did not need that or he could not achieve that. He will have to work on his game but he could come out the other side- in the meanwhile- new shiny players will come along for NBA GMs to take a chance on.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I had a kid recently graduate in 3.25 years (1 course senior year), so I know the rules pretty well:

*Course Credits required have increased from 32 to 34
*AP Credits are limited to 2, with only scores of 4 and 5 counting
*If you intend to graduate 1 semester early, AP credits can increase to 4. 2 semesters early, 8
*Most Duke students who are not engineers or pre-med can graduate in 3 years

But, most Duke students neither want nor plan to graduate early. Mine was trying to register for another semester when "You have completed all the requirements for graduation" popped up (Thank you Duke Registrar!!). Basketball players MAY not come in with usable AP credits, but with 4 summers, excellent advising, registration preferences and significant monetary incentives, it is quite possible.

I would claim copyright infringement on my name, but apparently you have senior status!

I bow before my new Mountain Devil overlord.

[rsvman]

One can improve a lot of things, but I’m wondering how possible it is to improve vertical explosiveness.

Answered and posted earlier in this thread. As a matter of fact, I proved it was possible with my sixth-grade science project way back in 1969.

There is currently a guy on youtube that has improved his max vertical by well more than 15% with a specific exercise program, which he describes.

[Mountain Devil]

I would claim copyright infringement on my name, but apparently you have senior status!

I bow before my new Mountain Devil overlord.

Lurking has its privileges.

[CDu]

Answered and posted earlier in this thread. As a matter of fact, I proved it was possible with my sixth-grade science project way back in 1969.

There is currently a guy on youtube that has improved his max vertical by well more than 15% with a specific exercise program, which he describes.

I don’t know if he has any relationship to the vertical jump bible, but that document also strongly suggests one can improve their vertical with the right diet and exercise.

I don’t think Young can achieve a 40-inch vertical or anything (especially not in one summer), but it can be improved.

[clinresga]

There are a number of assumptions here. If Keels had averaged 20 a game and led Duke to a FF- it is possible that he could have been a first round pick with guaranteed money. He bet on himself that he did not need that or he could not achieve that. He will have to work on his game but he could come out the other side- in the meanwhile- new shiny players will come along for NBA GMs to take a chance on.

Yeah, but that's my point. What chance is there that Keels would have improved so much as a college student that he would have "led us to a FF?" That would require that his skills take a huge jump upwards. And my point is that if his skills didn't do that while spending a year doing nothing but playing and studying basketball, then it sure wouldn't have happened as a part-time player (relative to G League) playing inferior competition in college. I think there's objective proof that Keels would not have led Duke to a FF, since his skill set is not dramatically better than last year, and that's despite spending a full year on nothing but hoops.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Lurking has its privileges.

Seniority sporks

[RPS]

The basketball players, I thought, are attending summer sessions every year.

My younger son was an athlete at Cal. He and his teammates took summer classes each year beginning the summer before Freshman year. They also got preferential registration -- necessary due to schedule -- allowing them to get the classes they needed. Tutors were available at mandatory study periods, but students who proved they could handle it quickly were released from the obligation. He finished midway through what would have been his junior year but stayed another semester. It's doable, but it takes a lot of effort and planning (he had 11 APs, too). The time commitment for sports is enormous, despite NCAA "limits." Careful scheduling and voluntary workouts meant he typically did weight-training early in the morning before class and had practice and related activities (film, meeting, etc.) 1-6. Dinner and study thereafter. So classes had fit in the 8am to noon time block.

[uh_no]

I had a kid recently graduate in 3.25 years (1 course senior year), so I know the rules pretty well:

*Course Credits required have increased from 32 to 34
*AP Credits are limited to 2, with only scores of 4 and 5 counting
*If you intend to graduate 1 semester early, AP credits can increase to 4. 2 semesters early, 8
*Most Duke students who are not engineers or pre-med can graduate in 3 years

But, most Duke students neither want nor plan to graduate early. Mine was trying to register for another semester when "You have completed all the requirements for graduation" popped up (Thank you Duke Registrar!!). Basketball players MAY not come in with usable AP credits, but with 4 summers, excellent advising, registration preferences and significant monetary incentives, it is quite possible.

engineers can graduate in 3 years...even with a duoble major.

[Mountain Devil]

engineers can graduate in 3 years...even with a duoble major.

I believe Grayson was in position to graduate in 3. He went to a private HS and was reputedly a good student, so he probably had some AP credit. But then....

[kshepinthehouse]

There are a number of assumptions here. If Keels had averaged 20 a game and led Duke to a FF- it is possible that he could have been a first round pick with guaranteed money. He bet on himself that he did not need that or he could not achieve that. He will have to work on his game but he could come out the other side- in the meanwhile- new shiny players will come along for NBA GMs to take a chance on.

Also possible he comes back, has a mediocre season, and doesn’t get drafted at all.

[jv001]

Seniority sporks

Looks like both Mountain Devils reside around the same mountain area.

GoDuke!

[JGDUKE2008]

We need to start recruiting guards from New York those guys are a different breed.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, but that's my point. What chance is there that Keels would have improved so much as a college student that he would have "led us to a FF?" That would require that his skills take a huge jump upwards. And my point is that if his skills didn't do that while spending a year doing nothing but playing and studying basketball, then it sure wouldn't have happened as a part-time player (relative to G League) playing inferior competition in college. I think there's objective proof that Keels would not have led Duke to a FF, since his skill set is not dramatically better than last year, and that's despite spending a full year on nothing but hoops.

I contend that if he was playing against “ inferior competition “, he could have significantly improved over his Freshman year and his experience, strength and ability to drive may have been enough to get Duke to a FF. The perception of Keels would have changed and he could have perhaps made it to the first round. It is possible that Keels would not have been a better NBA player but not every first rounder has a long NBA career. Keels is still a young kid and it may all turn out great for him. I see why he left but the point is that he could have been a first rounder if everything broke his way in that sophomore year.

[kshepinthehouse]

I contend that if he was playing against “ inferior competition “, he could have significantly improved over his Freshman year and his experience, strength and ability to drive may have been enough to get Duke to a FF. The perception of Keels would have changed and he could have perhaps made it to the first round. It is possible that Keels would not have been a better NBA player but not every first rounder has a long NBA career. Keels is still a young kid and it may all turn out great for him. I see why he left but the point is that he could have been a first rounder if everything broke his way in that sophomore year.

Why can’t he “significantly improve” in the g league?

[scottdude8]

Yeah, but that's my point. What chance is there that Keels would have improved so much as a college student that he would have "led us to a FF?" That would require that his skills take a huge jump upwards. And my point is that if his skills didn't do that while spending a year doing nothing but playing and studying basketball, then it sure wouldn't have happened as a part-time player (relative to G League) playing inferior competition in college. I think there's objective proof that Keels would not have led Duke to a FF, since his skill set is not dramatically better than last year, and that's despite spending a full year on nothing but hoops.

I think a lot of the issue with a kid like Trevor is the question of where you’d better develop. On the one hand, there’s the consideration of playing important minutes at a level where winning matters versus playing in the G-League which can sometimes devolve into exhibition basketball. On the other hand, in the G-League your sole focus is basketball, while at Duke you at least have to (at bare minimum) keep up the appearance of being a student athlete.

But more important when it comes to these draft decisions, I think, is the reality that an NBA team is going to give you more chances to succeed when they invest in you, ie spend a first round pick on you (or at least give you guaranteed money). And the higher you’re drafted, the more the team needs you to succeed. That, I think, is the biggest reason one might return to school to jump from a fringe first rounder to potential lottery pick: your runway in the league will almost assuredly be longer. I think this will be particularly relevant this season for Flip.

Now, the above considerations may not matter for those who just don’t enjoy the college experience as much or are fine with a potential short NBA stint followed by an overseas career. These are individual young men whose heads we by definition can’t see into. So rarely is there a “wrong” answer unless someone is completely out of basketball in a few years.

[Duke79UNLV77]

We need to start recruiting guards from New York those guys are a different breed.

Does Greg Paulus have a Covid year of eligibility? He could get a free transfer back from Syracuse, and his year of football could prepare him for a Tennessee style game.