Might as well buckle up for the next several weeks. I think Lively, Whitehead and Roach are 100% gone.
I think Flip, Proctor and Mitchell are all likely to test the waters and get the feedback they want or need.
Definitely Gone:
Roach
Whitehead
Lively
Proctor
Filipowski
Might be back:
Mitchell
Definitely back:
Young
Blakes
Man, I hope some of you guys are way off on your prognostications!
Lively, Whitehead and almost assuredly Flip are gone to the NBA.
For whatever reason, the insiders have been saying Jeremy isn't returning. He's not NBA material right now, so I assume that means going overseas rather than transferring (but stranger things have happened).
Am really hoping Proctor and Mitchell decide to stay. If we keep both of them, with having Young and Blakes back, we'll be pretty good again next season. If one of those two freshmen also leave, I'd only put us in the good category. If both leave, I can't see us being much more than average.
J. Roach (from the postgame): "I mean, it's not the end of the world, we just lost one March Madness game."
I think that really sums up the here-and-now.
My two cents, for whatever it's worth. I put the players in the following tiers:
Exhausted eligibility:
Catchings, Grandison, Johns
Definitely gone:
Lively, Whitehead
Probably gone:
Roach
Has a decision to make:
Blakes, Filipowski, Schutt
Probably returning:
Mitchell, Proctor, Reeves, Young
Blakes and Schutt are going to have to decide if their role next year is worth it. Filipowski is going to have to decide if he can get a 1st round guarantee and if that is enough for him to outweigh whatever benefits he sees in college. I don't think Proctor and Mitchell will get enough feedback on their game to leave Duke this summer. Reeves and Young seem like the best bets to me to return. I really, really like Duke's makeup next season if Filipowski, Proctor, and Mitchell all return. If Flip goes pro, there is always the portal.
We need of one of Roach/Proctor and one of Flip/Mitchel to return to be really good next year.
I personally believe all of them should return, but I would like Roach to be replaced by just a better offensive point guard. Lively and Whitehead need to seriously work on their offensive game. Lively can't generate offense on his own. Dariq offense is taking tough 3s, he can't put the ball on the floor and attack the paint at all without losing the ball, the complete opposite of Keels. Why did Keels have to leave? So annoying man
There is hope that GM Baker is putting together a program that makes it compelling to STAY in cases where the pre-draft feedback says you could use another year of college ball. If Proctor and Mitchell get that feedback, then staying at Duke and making a few hundred grand is a heck of a fallback.
With Proctor, however, it seems that we recruited him as a OAD. Next year’s class feels like we recruited over Roach, and Tyrese might feel it’s an awfully crowded backcourt next year.
To me, a lot hinges on his return. If he comes back, boy, I like our team.
Edit: Forgot to add my other thought. DJ Steward, maybe Cassius, and Tre Duval among others should be cautionary tales of not hastily making the jump. Hope these cases are part of Coach’s stay-or-go pamphlet.