Odds to Win the NCAA

[tommy]

I was in Las Vegas this weekend, and was surprised to see the odds (at the Wynn Sportsbook, anyway) on various teams to win the national championship this year. The casinos don't change these numbers all that often during the regular season, so it's not like they're reacting to every win and loss, but still, I found some of these somewhat surprising.

Michigan State 3-1
Arizona 4-1
Kansas 6-1
Kentucky 6-1
Syracuse 8-1


Duke is currently at 12-1


Michigan State the shortest odds? They have wins over Kentucky, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, but a loss to Carolina and not a heck of a lot else. They're the favorite to go all the way? Over Arizona? And that much shorter odds than Syracuse? Who has wins over Baylor, Villanova, and Pitt, and who beat the UNC team that beat Michigan State?

Kentucky is the strange one though. They have one quality win all year, over Louisville. It just goes to remind that the odds are based on how the money is coming in or expected to come in -- which includes a large component of popularity -- rather than an objective assessment of how strong the teams actually are.

[hurleyfor3]

Odds and lines aren't set based on actual probabilities, but on wagering patters. Futures on popular teams are always lowballed. The extreme example of this is with the Chicago Cubs.

BTW, you can ask at the desk to get a list of all the teams printed out. This will be up-to-date and probably have a few changes compared to the racks of sheets you can just take.

[TexHawk]

Michigan State the shortest odds? They have wins over Kentucky, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, but a loss to Carolina and not a heck of a lot else. They're the favorite to go all the way? Over Arizona? And that much shorter odds than Syracuse? Who has wins over Baylor, Villanova, and Pitt, and who beat the UNC team that beat Michigan State?

Arizona has wins over SDSU, Duke, and Michigan, and not a heck of a lot else either. They are about the same in SOS, 31 vs 36. Does that one loss in early December really mean all that much?

I am not a gambler, but if I was, I would have to think that MSU will enter the tournament much more prepared against top competition than Arizona will be. Sparty has 6 games left against Kenpom Top 15 teams. Arizona's toughest game left is against #30 Cal.

[MCFinARL]

Arizona has wins over SDSU, Duke, and Michigan, and not a heck of a lot else either. They are about the same in SOS, 31 vs 36. Does that one loss in early December really mean all that much?

I am not a gambler, but if I was, I would have to think that MSU will enter the tournament much more prepared against top competition than Arizona will be. Sparty has 6 games left against Kenpom Top 15 teams. Arizona's toughest game left is against #30 Cal.

Good point. Also, I think Michigan State benefits from a long history of consistent tournament appearances, including Final Four appearances, under Izzo, while Arizona under Miller is a relatively new kid on the block. If I'm a gambler [like TexHawk, I'm not], or even more if I'm a more casual bettor who doesn't follow the game obsessively, that pedigree is going to influence me.

From a basketball perspective, rather than a gambling one, however, neither of these is a team I'd like to see in my bracket in March--nor Kansas either.

[Troublemaker]

Kentucky, Kansas, and Michigan St were preseason favorites, in that order, so their odds are not going to change too much unless a major injury occurs. That's probably the right way to do it, too. I expect at least one of UK and KU to be playing like a top-5 team by March. Hopefully Duke will be in there, too, by March.

[77devil]

I was in Las Vegas this weekend, and was surprised to see the odds (at the Wynn Sportsbook, anyway) on various teams to win the national championship this year. The casinos don't change these numbers all that often during the regular season, so it's not like they're reacting to every win and loss, but still, I found some of these somewhat surprising.

Michigan State 3-1
Arizona 4-1
Kansas 6-1
Kentucky 6-1
Syracuse 8-1


Duke is currently at 12-1


Michigan State the shortest odds? They have wins over Kentucky, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, but a loss to Carolina and not a heck of a lot else. They're the favorite to go all the way? Over Arizona? And that much shorter odds than Syracuse? Who has wins over Baylor, Villanova, and Pitt, and who beat the UNC team that beat Michigan State?

Kentucky is the strange one though. They have one quality win all year, over Louisville. It just goes to remind that the odds are based on how the money is coming in or expected to come in -- which includes a large component of popularity -- rather than an objective assessment of how strong the teams actually are.

I'm surprised to see short odds on almost any team at this point in the season, but if people are willing to make bets on short odds now so be it. Longer odds on a team with decent chance is a better bet. It's tough enough to win the tournament under any circumstances and today's favorite is only one injury away from being middle of the pack. I'd need better odds on any team if I were inclined to make an early bet. Having said that, Syracuse and Duke look relatively undervalued. I'd consider Ohio State in the 10+/1 range.

[TexHawk]

Good point. Also, I think Michigan State benefits from a long history of consistent tournament appearances, including Final Four appearances, under Izzo, while Arizona under Miller is a relatively new kid on the block. If I'm a gambler [like TexHawk, I'm not], or even more if I'm a more casual bettor who doesn't follow the game obsessively, that pedigree is going to influence me.

From a basketball perspective, rather than a gambling one, however, neither of these is a team I'd like to see in my bracket in March--nor Kansas either.

Yea, which is one of the reasons that Vegas odds are a nice guide, to throw in with Kenpom, teamrankings, others when you are making tourney picks. You certainly wouldn't want to follow any one of those by itself religiously, but taken together, it is interesting.

And not to derail the thread, but I think Vegas is following the Izzo "narrative" here, rather than real tangible results. Everyone does it... Izzo's final fours are certainly sexy, but for some reason his 5 first round losses are swept under the rug. If we are going to look at tournament winning percentage, K, Pitino, Donovan, Roy, and Calipari have better records than Izzo. Self is .001 from being tied with him (depending on how you round, .722 to .714).

[rsvman]

I'm surprised to see short odds on almost any team at this point in the season, but if people are willing to make bets on short odds now so be it. Longer odds on a team with decent chance is a better bet. It's tough enough to win the tournament under any circumstances and today's favorite is only one injury away from being middle of the pack. I'd need better odds on any team if I were inclined to make an early bet. Having said that, Syracuse and Duke look relatively undervalued. I'd consider Ohio State in the 10+/1 range.

+1.

I don't bet. At all.

But if I did, I would'nt bet on anybody whose odds were shorter than maybe 9-1 or 10-1.

I wonder what the odds are for San Diego State? They could beat anybody at any time. Their odds are probably 30-1 or something like that. Might be a good place to put your money. Duke wouldn't be a bad bet right now either, at 12-1.

[TexHawk]

+1.

I don't bet. At all.

But if I did, I would'nt bet on anybody whose odds were shorter than maybe 9-1 or 10-1.

I wonder what the odds are for San Diego State? They could beat anybody at any time. Their odds are probably 30-1 or something like that. Might be a good place to put your money. Duke wouldn't be a bad bet right now either, at 12-1.

I was going to mention SDSU in my post as well. But I admit I am always a bit swayed by teams that beat my team, and SDSU flat out defends really well, it makes up for their pretty poor offense. Their loss to Arizona was a lot closer than the final score would tell you.

[brevity]

Warren Buffett has set forth some very different NCAA odds.

http://extramustard.si.com/2014/01/2...march-madness/

The 83-year-old Omaha-native’s company Berkshire Hathaway is teaming up with Quicken Loans’ Dan Gilbert, owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers, to offer a cool billion to anyone who can successfully fill out the perfect bracket for this year’s NCAA Men’s basketball tournament. The payments will be given in 40 annual installments of $25 million.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_...t_bracket.html

In addition to the grand prize, Quicken will award $100,000 each to the contest's 20 most accurate "imperfect" brackets submitted by qualified entrants in the contest to use toward buying, refinancing or remodeling a home.

[77devil]

The payments will be given in 40 annual installments of $25 million.

A tidy sum even on a net present value basis. Since Berkshire's rate of return on it's investments is much higher than yours or mine, it's a lot cheaper to fund than it might seem. Of course, given the odds, Buffet and Gilbert won't be paying up.

[tommy]

I wonder what the odds are for San Diego State? They could beat anybody at any time. Their odds are probably 30-1 or something like that. Might be a good place to put your money.

If I'm not mistaken, they were at either 22-1 or 25-1.

[Troublemaker]

Went online and grabbed current odds from two popular online books (Greek and 5Dimes). The numbers just represent the money you would win if you placed $100 on that team to win it all, and they went on to do so. Example: By placing $100 on Kansas at 5Dimes, you win $600 if they win it all.

+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Team            | Greek | 5Dimes |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Kansas          | 385   | 600    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Michigan State  | 650   | 600    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Kentucky        | 650   | 900    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Arizona         | 650   | 600    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Syracuse        | 800   | 1300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Florida         | 800   | 800    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Duke            | 800   | 1200   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Louisville      | 1000  | 1600   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Wichita State   | 1500  | 1000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Michigan        | 1500  | 1300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Virginia        | 2000  | 8000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Oklahoma State  | 2000  | 1800   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Villanova       | 2500  | 2300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Iowa State      | 3000  | 2300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Iowa            | 3000  | 2300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Wisconsin       | 3500  | 2500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Ohio State      | 3500  | 4000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Creighton       | 4000  | 2500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| UCLA            | 5000  | 7500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Pittsburgh      | 5000  | 5500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| California      | 5000  | 30000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| San Diego State | 6500  | 2800   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Memphis         | 6500  | 8000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| St Louis        | 8000  | 10500  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| North Carolina  | 8000  | 10000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Baylor          | 8000  | 20000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Xavier          | 10000 | 30000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+

[Des Esseintes]

Went online and grabbed current odds from two popular online books (Greek and 5Dimes). The numbers just represent the money you would win if you placed $100 on that team to win it all, and they went on to do so. Example: By placing $100 on Kansas at 5Dimes, you win $600 if they win it all.

+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Team            | Greek | 5Dimes |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Kansas          | 385   | 600    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Michigan State  | 650   | 600    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Kentucky        | 650   | 900    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Arizona         | 650   | 600    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Syracuse        | 800   | 1300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Florida         | 800   | 800    |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Duke            | 800   | 1200   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Louisville      | 1000  | 1600   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Wichita State   | 1500  | 1000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Michigan        | 1500  | 1300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Virginia        | 2000  | 8000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Oklahoma State  | 2000  | 1800   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Villanova       | 2500  | 2300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Iowa State      | 3000  | 2300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Iowa            | 3000  | 2300   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Wisconsin       | 3500  | 2500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Ohio State      | 3500  | 4000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Creighton       | 4000  | 2500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| UCLA            | 5000  | 7500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Pittsburgh      | 5000  | 5500   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| California      | 5000  | 30000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| San Diego State | 6500  | 2800   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Memphis         | 6500  | 8000   |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| St Louis        | 8000  | 10500  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| North Carolina  | 8000  | 10000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Baylor          | 8000  | 20000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+
| Xavier          | 10000 | 30000  |
+-----------------+-------+--------+

Wow is Greek crazy bullish on KU. I think they're an excellent team, too, but that far in front of the rest of the country? Their ceiling is terrific, with a decent likelihood that Wiggins starts seeing the Matrix before season's end. But still.

[tommy]

5 Dimes seems pretty weird too. Undefeated #1 Syracuse gets you better return than does Wichita State? Syracuse is the 6th choice? Wichita State also brings you less $ than does Duke? I'd like to see what the numbers are posted on the actual sports book boards in Vegas.

[Henderson]

For those of you with an interest in such things, here is a better site than The Greek or 5 Dimes. Any sport, futures and current games, Vegas odds or offshore odds.

Duke is currently 10-1 in Las Vegas to win it all; UNC-CH is 100-1. Kansas is currently the favorite. Wichita State is 14-1, and SDSU is 30-1. I think that makes SDSU a relative bargain. They've had some impressive wins, including at Kansas.

[Troublemaker]

For those of you with an interest in such things, here is a better site than The Greek or 5 Dimes. Any sport, futures and current games, Vegas odds or offshore odds.

Duke is currently 10-1 in Las Vegas to win it all; UNC-CH is 100-1. Kansas is currently the favorite. Wichita State is 14-1, and SDSU is 30-1. I think that makes SDSU a relative bargain. They've had some impressive wins, including at Kansas.

I love using Vegas Insider myself as a dashboard site that collects the lines from various Vegas and offshore books, as you mentioned. HOWEVER, their Futures odds are not dashboard. They just source from Sportsbook.com, which is just another online book like Greek or 5Dimes, except not nearly as well-regarded as the latter two.

5 Dimes seems pretty weird too. Undefeated #1 Syracuse gets you better return than does Wichita State? Syracuse is the 6th choice? Wichita State also brings you less $ than does Duke? I'd like to see what the numbers are posted on the actual sports book boards in Vegas.

You posted some Vegas odds in the first post of this thread and commented that you found those to be weird as well, though. Generally speaking, offshore odds are going to be longer odds, that is, closer to the true odds of a team winning it all. Example: A team listed at 4 to 1 in Vegas to win it all might be listed as 6 to 1 offshore. The reason is offshore books handle much more money than Vegas and so their margins can be smaller.

Wow is Greek crazy bullish on KU. I think they're an excellent team, too, but that far in front of the rest of the country? Their ceiling is terrific, with a decent likelihood that Wiggins starts seeing the Matrix before season's end. But still.

Des -- in the case of KU's odds at Greek, I'm almost certain Greek has booked an abnormally large amount of bets on KU to win it all as compared to other books. Thus their current price on KU is a total ripoff to balance out the amounts they had booked at previously more sensible (but still advantaged to the house) prices. In reality, no bettor is going to place any more KU bets at Greek at the current odds if they have any concept of price comparison. And Greek would be fine with that, too, because they want to limit their exposure on KU.

[Henderson]

I love using Vegas Insider myself as a dashboard site that collects the lines from various Vegas and offshore books, as you mentioned. HOWEVER, their Futures odds are not dashboard. They just source from Sportsbook.com, which is just another online book like Greek or 5Dimes, except not nearly as well-regarded as the latter two.

Sorry, but au contraire, mon ami. Vegas Insider gathers its odds from the major sports books in LV and collates them. I live in LV, and I can tell you that, as of this weekend, the posted future odds on Vegas Insider were those posted on the major books in town. They work together and lay off bets, so one major book tends to reflect that of another. Not sure where you got your info, but it's factually incorrect in this instance.

[Troublemaker]

Sorry, but au contraire, mon ami. Vegas Insider gathers its odds from the major sports books in LV and collates them. I live in LV, and I can tell you that, as of this weekend, the posted future odds on Vegas Insider were those posted on the major books in town. They work together and lay off bets, so one major book tends to reflect that of another. Not sure where you got your info, but it's factually incorrect in this instance.

My friend, just check out their college basketball futures odds page, for example: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-.../odds/futures/

Scroll down and you'll see "Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag" (which is just the Antigua domain for Sportsbook.com [I'm guessing they changed because the .com domain could be seized as any moment])

Regardless, Vegas Insider is a great site for collating point spreads and moneylines as you mentioned.

[Des Esseintes]

Des -- in the case of KU's odds at Greek, I'm almost certain Greek has booked an abnormally large amount of bets on KU to win it all as compared to other books. Thus their current price on KU is a total ripoff to balance out the amounts they had booked at previously more sensible (but still advantaged to the house) prices. In reality, no bettor is going to place any more KU bets at Greek at the current odds if they have any concept of price comparison. And Greek would be fine with that, too, because they want to limit their exposure on KU.

This is definitely correct, and I'm embarrassed not to have been on top of that one.