Autopsy of a Loss: Duke vs FSU

[DoubleBlue]

In the 9 games against decent/good teams this year, we've scored on our last possession of the half just twice: a 3 by Baker against OSU, and a 3 by Griffin against Wake. Otherwise, ofer. In the end of the second half or OT of close games, we scored on our last real possession against FSU (Williams dunk; I don't count the full-court pass with a second left), but failed to score on either of the last two trips against Miami and the last trip in OT against FSU.

I'm not sure if that's a sufficient sample size to raise alarm, but the theme I saw between the Miami and FSU misses was that we didn't have (or in the FSU game, didn't choose to use) a timeout. So the attempts were sort of off-script.

In general, I don't know that we've had that many bad possessions in those situations. In the Miami game, I would have rather gotten the ball to Banchero. But Moore's and Keels' 3s were open looks, and Keels got nicely into the lane on his 10-footer. He just didn't finish strong. The FSU end of half and end of OT were largely miscommunications, where Banchero either declined to receive the initial pass (from Moore in OT) or got it but passed it away (to Keels, who took a 3 with the clock winding down).

FSU has now won a D-1 record 13-straight overtime games. It's way beyond statistical odds, so Coach Hamilton seems to have figured out how to handle those situations. https://www.thescore.com/ncaab/news/2279923

[heyman25]

A couple of points. First, for college players confidence plays a role in how they play. For some it is a big part, others not so much. At one extreme you have Bobby Hurley who had enough confidence for a whole team. At the other extreme you have some of our 3pt specialists who can go on season long slumps due to a loss of confidence.

Why am I talking about confidence? I'm talking about it because of Moore and also the discussion of Moore vs Scheyer. This season Moore surprised everyone out of the gates with his improved play. If he took a shot it was going in, if he went for a rebound he was getting it, if he drove he was getting a good shot off, if he made a pass it was going to the right spot. On just his 2nd game of the season he gets a triple double, scoring 19 on 13 shots, grabs 10 boards and has 10 assists with only 1 turnover. Now that was against a weak Army team, but still. Out of the 12 games in Nov & Dec Kenpom had him as the MVP (of game, not just team) 4 times. So in 33% of his Nov -Dec games Moore was statistically the best player on the floor. He only had one offensively inefficient game in that 12 game stretch, our 1st game against Kentucky his OR was 99. The other 11 games he had a Ortg ranging from 107 to 167(!) and his average OR was a superb 131! What about the tough games? Vs Gonzaga it was 119, vs Ohio State 107, vs Virginia Tech 141. What about his ball handling? His a/t ratio in this stretch was a superb 2.9. That includes 2 to 1 vs Gonzaga and 5 to 1 vs Ohio State.

Then the break and January came. His OR's this month have been 64, 90, 128, 109, 104, for an ave OR=99. So since Jan 1 his average OR is the same as his worst game OR in Nov-Dec. Of his 15 games his, the overall rank of his Jan OR's are 15th, 14th, 7th, 9th and 10th. It is normal for these unadjusted OR's to drop as the competition gets tougher but a guy averaging 131 in the preseason shouldn't drop 32 points! A guy with an OR of 119 vs Gonzaga in a neutral venue shouldn't drop to 64 at home vs 127th ranked GT. What about his ball handling? His a/t ratio was an excellent 2.9 prior to New Years, it is very poor 1.0 since Jan 1.

Now why did Moore go from being the most consistent player on our team from Nov 9th to Dec 22, to being downright poor in 4 out of 5 games from Jan 4 to Jan 18? I don't think he lost his skills over those 2 weeks. IMO, with Moore it's always been about confidence. When he doesn't have it he is tentative with his passes, he is tentative with dribbling, he is tentative or rushes open 3's. Confident Moore reads the floor, make a plan and executes it. Non-confident Moore runs into crowds, passes up open looks, leaps in the air with the ball but no plan, and - his most identifiable trait - fumbles the ball off his knee or foot because he can't decide what to do. Confident Moore has a sweet stroke, hits nothing but net.

Last night it was clear that Moore wasn't feeling it. Nothing was smooth, for the 2nd game in a row he had 4 turnovers, this from a player who prior to NC State hadn't had 4 turnovers once this season. When we got to the last play it looked to me that the plan was for someone to get the ball and then give it to Banchero with about 8-10 secs left. Banchero got it, gave it to Moore, waited and then made a move to get it back. But Moore hesitated (you could see the uncertainty on his face) and didn't make the pass and then Banchero was covered again. So Moore panics a bit, knowing less than 10 secs left, turns and charges into a crowd and throws up a ball that he had no confidence in (imo). I knew he was 75% to miss before he took it. Then on the rebound he looked defeated and instead of concentrating (like a Jones off the floor to the basket in 1 sec vs the Evil Empire) and trying to pick up the ball he stumbles toward it and kicks it down the floor. The defeated look on his face was there even before the kick.

Second point. End of game situations need a calm floor leader. Which brings us to Scheyer. You can compare season stats all you want between the two players and it won't tell you the whole story. The reason Scheyer was great despite not being a natural point guard was that he was so confident coming up with the ball (never had to worry about a careless turnover) that it relaxed the whole team. He never wavered under pressure. You couldn't speed him up, even if there was only 15 secs left in a 1 point game. I still remember the NCAA's when even at the most critical times Scheyer would walk the ball up, look around surveying the floor, make his decision and then start the play. His teammates fed off that. If and when Moore plays like that (and it is in his repertoire when his confidence is there) then he can be compared to Jon. When it's not there, he doesn't need to be taking or creating the last shot. Let Banchero do that. Banchero doesnt' have to take the shot, he can drive and drop or dish. But we can't have rushed, throw something up and hope it goes in like we had with Keels leaning over too soon in clock forced 12 footer vs Miami. Nor should we have had a low confidence Moore doing it against FSU.

Very good analysis Skydog. For Syracuse even though they don't have the athletes Florida State has, Duke better prepare and listen to their coaching staff. I am not counting on Keels being available. Backcourt has to improve and utilize Banchero the entire time he is on the court.

[SOB13]

A couple of points. First, for college players confidence plays a role in how they play. For some it is a big part, others not so much. At one extreme you have Bobby Hurley who had enough confidence for a whole team. At the other extreme you have some of our 3pt specialists who can go on season long slumps due to a loss of confidence.

Why am I talking about confidence? I'm talking about it because of Moore and also the discussion of Moore vs Scheyer. This season Moore surprised everyone out of the gates with his improved play. If he took a shot it was going in, if he went for a rebound he was getting it, if he drove he was getting a good shot off, if he made a pass it was going to the right spot. On just his 2nd game of the season he gets a triple double, scoring 19 on 13 shots, grabs 10 boards and has 10 assists with only 1 turnover. Now that was against a weak Army team, but still. Out of the 12 games in Nov & Dec Kenpom had him as the MVP (of game, not just team) 4 times. So in 33% of his Nov -Dec games Moore was statistically the best player on the floor. He only had one offensively inefficient game in that 12 game stretch, our 1st game against Kentucky his OR was 99. The other 11 games he had a Ortg ranging from 107 to 167(!) and his average OR was a superb 131! What about the tough games? Vs Gonzaga it was 119, vs Ohio State 107, vs Virginia Tech 141. What about his ball handling? His a/t ratio in this stretch was a superb 2.9. That includes 2 to 1 vs Gonzaga and 5 to 1 vs Ohio State.

Then the break and January came. His OR's this month have been 64, 90, 128, 109, 104, for an ave OR=99. So since Jan 1 his average OR is the same as his worst game OR in Nov-Dec. Of his 15 games his, the overall rank of his Jan OR's are 15th, 14th, 7th, 9th and 10th. It is normal for these unadjusted OR's to drop as the competition gets tougher but a guy averaging 131 in the preseason shouldn't drop 32 points! A guy with an OR of 119 vs Gonzaga in a neutral venue shouldn't drop to 64 at home vs 127th ranked GT. What about his ball handling? His a/t ratio was an excellent 2.9 prior to New Years, it is very poor 1.0 since Jan 1.

Now why did Moore go from being the most consistent player on our team from Nov 9th to Dec 22, to being downright poor in 4 out of 5 games from Jan 4 to Jan 18? I don't think he lost his skills over those 2 weeks. IMO, with Moore it's always been about confidence. When he doesn't have it he is tentative with his passes, he is tentative with dribbling, he is tentative or rushes open 3's. Confident Moore reads the floor, make a plan and executes it. Non-confident Moore runs into crowds, passes up open looks, leaps in the air with the ball but no plan, and - his most identifiable trait - fumbles the ball off his knee or foot because he can't decide what to do. Confident Moore has a sweet stroke, hits nothing but net.

Last night it was clear that Moore wasn't feeling it. Nothing was smooth, for the 2nd game in a row he had 4 turnovers, this from a player who prior to NC State hadn't had 4 turnovers once this season. When we got to the last play it looked to me that the plan was for someone to get the ball and then give it to Banchero with about 8-10 secs left. Banchero got it, gave it to Moore, waited and then made a move to get it back. But Moore hesitated (you could see the uncertainty on his face) and didn't make the pass and then Banchero was covered again. So Moore panics a bit, knowing less than 10 secs left, turns and charges into a crowd and throws up a ball that he had no confidence in (imo). I knew he was 75% to miss before he took it. Then on the rebound he looked defeated and instead of concentrating (like a Jones off the floor to the basket in 1 sec vs the Evil Empire) and trying to pick up the ball he stumbles toward it and kicks it down the floor. The defeated look on his face was there even before the kick.

Second point. End of game situations need a calm floor leader. Which brings us to Scheyer. You can compare season stats all you want between the two players and it won't tell you the whole story. The reason Scheyer was great despite not being a natural point guard was that he was so confident coming up with the ball (never had to worry about a careless turnover) that it relaxed the whole team. He never wavered under pressure. You couldn't speed him up, even if there was only 15 secs left in a 1 point game. I still remember the NCAA's when even at the most critical times Scheyer would walk the ball up, look around surveying the floor, make his decision and then start the play. His teammates fed off that. If and when Moore plays like that (and it is in his repertoire when his confidence is there) then he can be compared to Jon. When it's not there, he doesn't need to be taking or creating the last shot. Let Banchero do that. Banchero doesnt' have to take the shot, he can drive and drop or dish. But we can't have rushed, throw something up and hope it goes in like we had with Keels leaning over too soon in clock forced 12 footer vs Miami. Nor should we have had a low confidence Moore doing it against FSU.

I had been trying to figure out why the team’s collective confidence seemed to be so fragile lately after looking so solid early in the season. For all the discussion of turnovers, rebounds and droughts, I think those might be a symptom of a team that rattles more easily and doesn’t bounce back as quickly. Not sure what is behind Moore’s hesitancy lately, but it sure seems to be affecting the whole team’s psyche. Hope he gets his mojo back soon.

[uh_no]

FSU has now won a D-1 record 13-straight overtime games. It's way beyond statistical odds, so Coach Hamilton seems to have figured out how to handle those situations. https://www.thescore.com/ncaab/news/2279923

Eh, it's not as exceptional as you might think. The streak is almost exactly 4 years old. There are about 5850 D1 games every year (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ketball-season), meaning 23400 games or so have been played since the streak began. Approximately 6% of games go to overtime (estimate based off numbers here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...long-blowouts/ ), which means 1404 or so overtime games since FSU last lost, and 2808 total overtime results. If you randomly order those 2808 results, something like 50% of the time, the longest run of wins will be 12+, so something like 25% of the time there will be a run of 13+, 12.5% of the time, there will be a run of 14+...etc (note, this jibes with the fact that the odds of a run of 13 in general is 1/8000...so 25% chance in 2808 trials is passes the eye test).

We're not done yet, however.

if the longest run is exactly 13, we only have a 1/13 chance of those all being allocated to a single team (vs ending up split). So we'll do some REALLY rough calculation here, it'll be somewhere around

1/2^2 * 1/13 + 1/2^3*2/13 +1/2^4*3/13...

This result comes to somewhere around 7.5% of the time (you need something like <5% to get to even the weakest 2-sigma result)...which is not enough to conclude the result is more than random variation...let alone "way beyond statistical odds."

In lay terms, you'd expect a team to have this long of a stream about once every 13 years just by random chance.

(the actual computation is a bit more involved...but there are a LOT of overtime games, so SOMEONE flipping heads a bunch of times in a row is not that exceptional. In general, humans vastly underestimate the likelihood of long runs in sequences of random coin flips. someone is welcome to simulate if they like)

[-jk]

Eh, it's not as exceptional as you might think. The streak is almost exactly 4 years old. There are about 5850 D1 games every year (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ketball-season), meaning 23400 games or so have been played since the streak began. Approximately 6% of games go to overtime (estimate based off numbers here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...long-blowouts/ ), which means 1404 or so overtime games since FSU last lost, and 2808 total overtime results. If you randomly order those 2808 results, something like 50% of the time, the longest run of wins will be 12+, so something like 25% of the time there will be a run of 13+, 12.5% of the time, there will be a run of 14+...etc (note, this jibes with the fact that the odds of a run of 13 in general is 1/8000...so 25% chance in 2808 trials is passes the eye test).

We're not done yet, however.

if the longest run is exactly 13, we only have a 1/13 chance of those all being allocated to a single team (vs ending up split). So we'll do some REALLY rough calculation here, it'll be somewhere around

1/2^2 * 1/13 + 1/2^3*2/13 +1/2^4*3/13...

This result comes to somewhere around 7.5% of the time (you need something like <5% to get to even the weakest 2-sigma result)...which is not enough to conclude the result is more than random variation...let alone "way beyond statistical odds."

In lay terms, you'd expect a team to have this long of a stream about once every 13 years just by random chance.

That math seems squishy to me, but IANAS. Somehow I'd have thought it would be close to 50-50 to win each overtime game, so winning 13 in a row would be on the order of 0.5^13.

-jk

[freshmanjs]

That math seems squishy to me, but IANAS. Somehow I'd have thought it would be close to 50-50 to win each overtime game, so winning 13 in a row would be on the order of 0.5^13.

-jk

For a particular team. But the odds that some team would do it are much higher. It’s like asset managers. Even if it’s all totally random, some of them will be stellar performers.

[uh_no]

That math seems squishy to me, but IANAS. Somehow I'd have thought it would be close to 50-50 to win each overtime game, so winning 13 in a row would be on the order of 0.5^13.

-jk

right. that's 1/8000 or so for any individual team. but the probability for SOME team to have a streak of 13 going on at any given time is far higher. It's the distinction between rolling doubles (1/6) and rolling a specific double (like snake eyes, 1/36). The probability of FSU having a streak of 13 is not great, but the probability of SOME team having a streak of 13 is significantly higher. It just happens that team is FSU.

From a science-y perspective, that's why having a hypothesis is important BEFORE you examine the data. If your hypothesis beforehand looking at any data was that FSU is better at winning OT games than others, you could publish that result. If your hypothesis was that any team winning 13 straight OT games in a row is an indicator of some special OT performance, you could not. In either case, you can't choose the hypothesis in hindsight, so we can't after the fact see that FSU has won those games and make then hypothesis that FSU is better at OT games...since it's too common for there to exist SOME team who has a long streak about which we could make the now-biased hypothesis.

[-jk]

For a particular team. But the odds that some team would do it are much higher. It’s like asset managers. Even if it’s all totally random, some of them will be stellar performers.

right. that's 1/8000 or so for any individual team. but the probability for SOME team to have a streak of 13 going on at any given time is far higher. It's the distinction between rolling doubles (1/6) and rolling a specific double (like snake eyes, 1/36). The probability of FSU having a streak of 13 is not great, but the probability of SOME team having a streak of 13 is significantly higher. It just happens that team is FSU.

From a science-y perspective, that's why having a hypothesis is important BEFORE you examine the data. If your hypothesis beforehand looking at any data was that FSU is better at winning OT games than others, you could publish that result. If your hypothesis was that any team winning 13 straight OT games in a row is an indicator of some special OT performance, you could not. In either case, you can't choose the hypothesis in hindsight, so we can't after the fact see that FSU has won those games and make then hypothesis that FSU is better at OT games...since it's too common for there to exist SOME team who has a long streak about which we could make the now-biased hypothesis.

Thanks. Haven't done any stat work in decades, and it shows!

Anyone know what the current longest streak is?

-jk

[Saratoga2]

[QUOTE=CDu;1439712]Unfortunately, the last 2.5 weeks represent over half of his games against quality competition. So it makes sense that folks might change their minds. Especially since, in hindsight, his PG play against good teams in Nov/Dec 2021 wasn’t great.

Heading into 2022, Moore’s PG resume against awful teams (outside the top-200) was superlative: 5 games, 28 assists, 4 turnovers. He was unbelievable. But that may have masked his play in tougher games.

He had just 4 games against teams in the Power-6 plus Gonzaga prior to 2022. In those games, his numbers were okay but not great: 18 assists, 10 turnovers. He had 2 bad PG games (UK and VT), one decent PG game (Gonzaga), and one good PG game (OSU). So it is possible that the OSU performance is the outlier, and that against good teams he is still the shaky ballhandler/decision maker we saw last year.

Hopefully not. But it is worth noting that he has 8 games this year with 3 or more turnovers, and 9 games with either 3+ turnovers or an A/TO of <=1.33. He has two really good PG games against good teams and 2 amazing PG games against awful teams.

I absolutely was in the camp that he was playing great PG as of beginning of January. In looking back, I am more more suspicious that I was wrong.

It is certainly possible that the last 2 weeks aren’t the new norm, and I do hope that is the case. But like I said (and I realize I am repeating myself unnecessarily - sorry!) I do worry that t>C

Since playing against ACC teams Moore has not done well playmaking. His record:

VT 4A 3TO
GT 2A 3TO
Mia 7A 6TO
WF 1A 4TO
FS 2A 4TO

ACC games are often close matches and uncertain playmaking can and has led to losses. We haven't really got a PG on the team and asking Banchero to bring the ball up is asking a lot.

The other two possibilities are Keels and Roach. Neither is a perfect solution and they often won't play together and give us our best lineup. I prefer the starting lineup of Williams, Banchero, Keels, Moore and Griffin with Roach off the bench and getting significant minutes. I like Moore off the ball and concentrating on scoring and defense. I like Banchero getting the ball delivered to him where he can initiate his offense or as he has shown, make passes into the interior. Griffin can be an important scorer if the ball is delivered to him where he also can initiate his offense. in my opinion it comes back to Keels and Roach. Blakes is a wild card but presumably not ready to provide the playmaking role.

[uh_no]

Thanks. Haven't done any stat work in decades, and it shows!

Anyone know what the current longest streak is?

-jk

i'm pretty sure it IS actually FSU's 13, which does make it exceptional regardless. I just hesitate to assign it to some special secret that Leonard Hamilton has that others don't.

[kshepinthehouse]

[QUOTE=Saratoga2;1439757]

Unfortunately, the last 2.5 weeks represent over half of his games against quality competition. So it makes sense that folks might change their minds. Especially since, in hindsight, his PG play against good teams in Nov/Dec 2021 wasn’t great.

Heading into 2022, Moore’s PG resume against awful teams (outside the top-200) was superlative: 5 games, 28 assists, 4 turnovers. He was unbelievable. But that may have masked his play in tougher games.

He had just 4 games against teams in the Power-6 plus Gonzaga prior to 2022. In those games, his numbers were okay but not great: 18 assists, 10 turnovers. He had 2 bad PG games (UK and VT), one decent PG game (Gonzaga), and one good PG game (OSU). So it is possible that the OSU performance is the outlier, and that against good teams he is still the shaky ballhandler/decision maker we saw last year.

Hopefully not. But it is worth noting that he has 8 games this year with 3 or more turnovers, and 9 games with either 3+ turnovers or an A/TO of <=1.33. He has two really good PG games against good teams and 2 amazing PG games against awful teams.

I absolutely was in the camp that he was playing great PG as of beginning of January. In looking back, I am more more suspicious that I was wrong.

It is certainly possible that the last 2 weeks aren’t the new norm, and I do hope that is the case. But like I said (and I realize I am repeating myself unnecessarily - sorry!) I do worry that t>C

Since playing against ACC teams Moore has not done well playmaking. His record:

VT 4A 3TO
GT 2A 3TO
Mia 7A 6TO
WF 1A 4TO
FS 2A 4TO

ACC games are often close matches and uncertain playmaking can and has led to losses. We haven't really got a PG on the team and asking Banchero to bring the ball up is asking a lot.

The other two possibilities are Keels and Roach. Neither is a perfect solution and they often won't play together and give us our best lineup. I prefer the starting lineup of Williams, Banchero, Keels, Moore and Griffin with Roach off the bench and getting significant minutes. I like Moore off the ball and concentrating on scoring and defense. I like Banchero getting the ball delivered to him where he can initiate his offense or as he has shown, make passes into the interior. Griffin can be an important scorer if the ball is delivered to him where he also can initiate his offense. in my opinion it comes back to Keels and Roach. Blakes is a wild card but presumably not ready to provide the playmaking role.

ESPN box score has him 6 assists 0 turnovers vs Wake

[-jk]

i'm pretty sure it IS actually FSU's 13, which does make it exceptional regardless. I just hesitate to assign it to some special secret that Leonard Hamilton has that others don't.

I meant second longest current streak. Sorry.

-jk

[tommy]

i'm pretty sure it IS actually FSU's 13, which does make it exceptional regardless. I just hesitate to assign it to some special secret that Leonard Hamilton has that others don't.

The fact that it's FSU with the streak may not really be all that random though. It certainly could be influenced by the fact that playing against FSU under Hamilton is HARD. They are always tall, with multiple strong-bodied, athletic guys who play a very aggressive style. It wears the opponent down. And they do throw a lot of bodies at you. It wears the opponent down physically and mentally. It stands to reason that the Seminoles are usually going to be less worn down physically and mentally than are their opponents after 40 minutes, even if the score is tied. And if that is the case, the less worn down team -- FSU -- would likely have an advantage in coming out on top when the length of the game is extended.

[KBCrazie]

How has Duke lost 3 games by January 19 again? The entire starting 5 are projected NBA first rounders.

THIS

[KBCrazie]

This was a disappointing loss, but certainly not a "bad" loss. Indeed, I believe there is much to be encouraged about. Consider that our team came into a notoriously hostile environment against a deep, athletic team unexpectedly playing at full strength; were able to overcome a substantial disparity in turnovers and rebounds to grind out a 5-point halftime lead; survived a devastating 8-10 minute stretch of the second half in which all the bounces and breaks -- including virtually every officiating call -- went in favor of FSU; then lost a starter to injury; yet they still managed to muster the intestinal fortitude to fight through all that massive adversity and regain the lead in the final minute. IMO, that kind of toughness and tenacity, especially in the face of what had to be a lot of frustration with their own mistakes and some decidedly home-cooked officiating through key stretches of the game, not only deserves appreciation, but is cause for optimism.

I think we should also bear in mind that in this game and the Miami game our opponent made what I consider to be a "lucky" shot in the closing seconds, which, had the shot not been made, Duke wins the game. Not saying Lady Luck isn't part of the game, but I'm saying that when she's got her thumb on the scale you have to feel that Duke played well enough to win.

[KBCrazie]

He did initially show the ability to drive and disrupt, but that's been harder lately because a) he's had better defenders facing him in conference play, and b) they tend to sag off a little now that his shooting form has been established as not threatening enough

Early on Trevor seemed fearless and very effective at driving the lane. With his physique, he should pretty much unstoppable. The only concern I had with him playing that way was that when he drew the foul (which happened frequently) he didn't consistenly convert at the line. That should have been correctable to get him at least into the 70s percentage-wise. Would like to see them use him in that manner now that his inability to consistently score from the perimeter is apparent. Side bonus would be getting our opponents' big men in foul trouble.

[tommy]

I think we should also bear in mind that in this game and the Miami game our opponent made what I consider to be a "lucky" shot in the closing seconds, which, had the shot not been made, Duke wins the game. Not saying Lady Luck isn't part of the game, but I'm saying that when she's got her thumb on the scale you have to feel that Duke played well enough to win.

Yeah I was thinking about this too. I was really hoping that, with this being Coach K's last year, and everything he has meant to the game and given to the game and all the people he has positively influenced, that somehow there would be some really good karma for us this year and we would get all those bounces at the ends of games to go our way and send him out the way he deserves. So far it hasn't been the case. I just will remain hopeful that that karma, and those good bounces, are coming our way in the most important games to come . . .

[KBCrazie]

I just will remain hopeful that that karma, and those good bounces, are coming our way in the most important games to come . . .

What goes around, comes around, amirite? You have to believe we will get a few breaks, hopefully during our deep tourney run.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

i'm pretty sure it IS actually FSU's 13, which does make it exceptional regardless. I just hesitate to assign it to some special secret that Leonard Hamilton has that others don't.

I mean, you don't win 13 in a row by accident.

I would say that the body of work - overall wins, unranked wins against top 25 opponents (passed Bobby Knight), overall ACC wins (5th all time under K, Dean, Roy, Gary), and 13 straight OT wins...

That starts to suggest that Hamilton might be a pretty dang good coach. Oh, and they nearly set the record for streak of ACC home wins earlier this season.

I'd say odds are good Leonard Hamilton has more than one secret in his pocket that other coaches would like to get a hint of

[sagegrouse]

Paulo - 2
Mark - 17
Griffin - 20
Trevor - 22
Wendell - 24

How has Duke lost 3 games by January 19 again? The entire starting 5 are projected NBA first rounders.

Well, three have been at Duke about five months, and at most one will be an NBA starter next year.

I understand your comment, but I personally am not surprised by the record. (A) Team defense is hard with a freshman-dominated team. (B) There was one let-down game against Ohio State (same thing happened to the Zags after losing to Duke). (C) Two games were decided in the last few seconds. (D) The Miami loss followed a ten-day Covid-imposed interruption of the program -- only one practice and some players suffering from Covid. (And Miami has three very good offensive players, as UNC learned.)